Nuggets vs Heat I: "Big D Energy"

The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

*Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 10 MIA

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: +40

"Showtime" Michael Porter Jr: N/A

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: +11

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: +23

Will "Thrill" Barton: +24

PJ "Bol" Dozier: +4

"Bones" Hyland: +2

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: +0

"Funcle" JaMychal Green: +1

"Uncle" Jeff Green: +10

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: +5

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: +2

Vlatko "Mr Olympia" Cancar: N/A

Bol Bol "Baggins": +0

"Wet" Markus Howard: +0

Petr "French Toast" Cornelie: N/A

Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 10 games +307

Michael Porter Jr: 9 games +56

Aaron Gordon: 10 games +109

Monte Morris: 10 games +123

Will Barton: 10 games +131

PJ Dozier: 10 games +42

Bones Hyland: 7 games +48

Facundo Campazzo: 10 games +13

JaMychal Green: 10 games +3

Jeff Green: 10 games +33

Austin Rivers: 8 games +16

Zeke Nnaji: 3 games +5

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games +0

Bol Bol: 3 games +0

Markus Howard: 3 games +0

Petr Cornelie: 1 games +0

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +30.70

Michael Porter Jr: +6.22

Aaron Gordon: +10.90

Monte Morris: +12.30

Will Barton: +13.10

PJ Dozier: +4.20

Bones Hyland: +6.86

Facundo Campazzo: +1.30

JaMychal Green: +0.33

Jeff Green: +3.33

Austin Rivers: +2.00

Zeke Nnaji: +1.67

Vlatko Cancar: +0.00

Bol Bol: +0.00

Markus Howard: +0.00

Petr Cornelie: +0.00

Jamal Murray: +0.00

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits (2020-'21 final numbers)

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.

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Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 2nd starting five, consisting of Morris, Barton, Uncle Jeff, AG & the MVP. The Heat counter with Lowry, Robinson, Butler, Tucker & Bam. I favor starting PJ over Jeff, not only because I believe he shoulda been starting over Barton to begin with, but now the temptation for Malone to go with the tiny-ass-all-out-of-position bench featuring Facu/Bones/Rivers/PJ/Green exists, which CAN'T go well, especially vs the very best bench player in the league in Tyler Herro. AG's goin' with the dangling braids tonight. Not sure what that means, but beware, Miami. Joker is called for stealing the tip and we are under way. Barton opens the scoring with a trifecta, and immediately yields one to Danger Duncan Robinson. Monte is engaged offensively and Denver leads by two at 10:08. Barton is getting caught head-turning defensively. Lowry is evidently a Spalding guy, as he air balls an attempt for three by a solid three feet.

Denver is getting out in transition and lead by six at the time of the first break, 7:01. PJ is first off the bench for the good guys at 5:38, leading by a touchdown. Senior is in next at 5:23 and immediately gets a put-back two, something absent from the Nuggets repertoire thus far on the season. Bones is in at 4:52. MVP/AG remain in for Denver, who lead by nine at 4:17. Robinson earns his 2nd foul and must exit at 3:58. Butler is feasting on Bones and the lead is down to four at 3:27. PJ is following Herro everywhere he goes defensively, and its been very effective. Austin and Will are in for AG/Jokic and my Malone-fear is realized. The man has got to be the most predictable in-game coach in the history of mankind. Denver leads by four at this time, 2:15. Senior is off to his best start of the season and the lead is four with under a minute remaining.

Denver is paced in TPM by Monte Morris: +14 as they lead 30-25 after one.

Qtr2- Small Forward in name only, Rivers, takes advantage of Herro's non-existent D, and drives by him for two, to open the period. He then gets a soft-as-fuck T for talking shit to Herro. Sans-Facu, the bench squad is actually attacking the paint with Bones/PJ/Will. The lead is nine at 9:00. Unc is the first starter to return for Denver at 8:45. Bones attacks the zerro-D-Herro with the hesitation drive and the lead is 11 at the time of the first break, 8:30. MPJ sitting courtside with a grin warms the heart. AG/MVP/Monte return at 7:46, leading by nine. Austin remains in as Barton takes a seat. Denver's D has been phenomenal tonight. Duncan earns his third foul and Zerro is in for him. Caleb Martin is NOT Miami's answer defensively for Jokic, but I'm not complaining.

The ball is poppin' and it results in a driving Dunk by MVP, and the lead is now 13 at 5:50. He makes three in double digits for Denver. AG has had one of the best 2/4/2 first halves you can ever hope to see. Both teams are in the bonus as Denver leads by 15 at 4:59. Lowry evidently took "180 zillion charges" last year, according to Marlowe. You can tell Chris is having fun tonight. AG with tomahawk jam on a slick feed from MVP, puts Zerro in a poster, and the lead is 17 at 3:30. Caleb Martin has four feverishly-fast fouls at 2:37. Miami's FT shooting (13-14) is keeping them in it tonight, after a Winge-jinx of Bam causes a miss. Miami's vaunted D is taking a beating tonight, as the good guys lead by 16 with under 30 seconds remaining. Barton nabs his third foul and sits at this time.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +24 as they lead 64-49 at the half.

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Qtr3- Im poppin' my edible early tonight, at halftime; hope that's not a goocher. MVP is on 3D watch for the first time this year, with 15/8/5. Monte gets the scoring underway with an 18 footer. This has been by FAR his best outing of the young season. Denver has their biggest lead of 20, at 9:45. MVP has a 2D with 15/10/6. Bam is hacking the bejezus out of Jokic this half and the refs are swallowing their whistles. Unc's willingness to roll to the hoop has unlocked the Jokic assists tonight. The lead is 21 at 7:50, and we may just get some Bol Bol ball tonight. Butler has ZERO fouls, which of course is utter horse shit, given his aggressive style of defense. The lead is now 23 at the time of the first break, 7:00. PJ Tucker appears to be washed. Unc and Bam are both down after banging knees at 6:38; no bueno. Both men are in pain, but both are walking under their own power. Unc sits, while Bam remains in.

Hopefully, Senior has been taking notes and dives to the rim for easy dunks like Unc was, rather than popping out to brick threes. Miami has just seven points, midway through the 3rd. PJ is in for Denver, leading by 20 at 5:25. Bam is still straight-up clobbering Jokic in the paint and the refs are STILL swallowing their whistles. The lead is 18 at 4:31 and Denver needs to get a bucket to avoid a momentum shift. PJ ends a 6-0 run for Miami with a put-back. Zerro wants none of AG's D, to the surprise of nobody. MVP is just two dimes shy of a 3D as Zerro airballs a three. Unc is back in, which of course is good to see after that injury scare. Jokic sits, leading by 19 with under two minutes to go. The lead is quickly up to 23 as Miami appears to be running out of steam early. Both teams are in the bonus in this foul-fest. Unc makes four in double digits for Denver.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +29 as they lead 91-70 after three.

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Qtr4- The Nuggets need to keep their foot on the pedal here and get Joker some rest. Miami scores the first five and the lead is down to 16, at 10.59. It's the bench unit plus Unc for Denver. PJ has bean BEASTING the boards tonight. Zerro finally gets a couple chucks to land and the lead is 14 at the time of the first break, 9:51, on the strength of a 10-1 run by Miami. AG/Will enter as a result, at this time. Denver's offense has been stymied and they are getting iso shots off at the end of the clock. Man, Dedmon is ALL knees & elbows out there. Monte/MVP are in for Denver, leading by 14 at 8:21. Zerro remains chucking. AG makes five in double digits for Denver. MVP is one dime shy of a 3D. He earns it, his first on the year (21/12/10), on a dish to Barton for three, and the lead is back up to 19 at 6:45. From the department of redundancy department Big Honey is so damned good; and on BOTH ends of the court. Zerro just airballed a layup due to MVP's presence. Miami cuts it to 15 on a three by Butler, and Miami is upping the defensive intensity. Jokic simply looks like a man amongst boys down low tonight. Barton keeps losing Butler in transition and it's resulted in two rare-threes for Buckets. The lead is 13 with just over 4 minutes to play.

I loathe when the anouncers talk about betting overs/unders during game action. Two straight threes for Barton, who is 7-9 from deep tonight, and the lead is 17 before ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE becase Joker has had enough with the rough play and no calls. Morris just pulled a cheap-ass body check on Jokic, who returned the favor, and Markief is writhing on the deck. He's going out on a stretcher?!?! Oh my fucking God! Maybe DON'T PLAY STUPID GAMES; DON'T WIN STUPID PRIZES?!?! Morris eventually comes to and seems to be just fine, apart from having exceedingly poor judgement. The officials are taking their time with a ruling. Morris is able to walk off under his own power. An M-V-P chant starts echoing through the crowd after roughly 8 minutes of deliberation, and Jimmy thinks NOW is the time to act tough. Not when it occurred. Now, while sepaated by dozens of security agents. Morris was ejected/MVP was ejected, Butler also got a T. Here's hopin' that nobody for Denver left the bench. Bol is plucked by Spoelstra to shoot the T shots! He of course clanks both, but you can hardly blame him under the circumstances. Miami empties the bench and it'd be wise for Malone to do the same. The lead is 17 with under two to play. He does just that at 1:12, and that's all she wrote.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +40 as they win big, 111-96.

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Final Thoughts:

• Denver wins going away, and in doing so, improves their recod to 6-4.
  
• A spirited effort tonight by the Nuggets.
• I'm still not a fan of the bench unit. Nnaji should be in. PJ should be starting. Too tiny to defend most teams or effectively rebound.
• I DO like Bones running the point for the 2nd unit, however.
• I quite enjoyed trolling Tyler Zerro tonight.
  
• Markief got killed because of your neglegence, refs. Well that and his EXCEEDINGLY poor judgement.
  
• Here's hopin' that the NBA is not heavy-handed in penalizing the leagues MVP for retaliating on a cheap shot, without even throwing a punch.
  

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 44-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.

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