Nuggets vs Pacers I: "$700 million in street clothes

The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

*Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 11 IND

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: N/A

"Showtime" Michael Porter Jr: N/A

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: +7

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: +19

Will "Thrill" Barton: +19

PJ "Bol" Dozier: +6

"Bones" Hyland: +13

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: -1

"Funcle" JaMychal Green: -2

"Uncle" Jeff Green: +2

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: +0

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: +16

Vlatko "Mr Olympia" Cancar: N/A

Bol Bol "Baggins": N/A

"Wet" Markus Howard: -3

Petr "French Toast" Cornelie: N/A

Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 10 games +317

Michael Porter Jr: 9 games +56

Aaron Gordon: 11 games +116

Monte Morris: 11 games +141

Will Barton: 11 games +150

PJ Dozier: 11 games +48

Bones Hyland: 8 games +61

Facundo Campazzo: 11 games +14

JaMychal Green: 11 games +1

Jeff Green: 11 games +35

Austin Rivers: 9 games +18

Zeke Nnaji: 4 games +21

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games +0

Bol Bol: 3 games +0

Markus Howard: 4 games -3

Petr Cornelie: 1 games +0

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +30.70

Michael Porter Jr: +6.22

Aaron Gordon: +10.55

Monte Morris: +12.82

Will Barton: +13.64

PJ Dozier: +4.36

Bones Hyland: +7.63

Facundo Campazzo: +1.27

JaMychal Green: +0.09

Jeff Green: +3.18

Austin Rivers: +2.00

Zeke Nnaji: +5.25

Vlatko Cancar: +0.00

Bol Bol: +0.00

Markus Howard: -0.75

Petr Cornelie: +0.00

Jamal Murray: +0.00

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits (2020-'21 final numbers)

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 3rd starting five, consisting of Morris, Barton, Uncle Jeff, AG & Senior. The Pacers counter with Brogdon, LeVert, Duarte, Sabonis & Turner. Gonna be a tall order to pull out the rare-home-upset, sans-Joker tonight. Gonna take a lot of team oriented play and limited chuckery. Senior wins the tap for Denver and we are underway. Barton chucks in a three to open the scoring. Make that two straight. Indy finally gets on the board with a free throw by Turner at 9:13, and Denver leads by seven.

Both teams go ice-cold following a 6-0 run by Indy, and the Nuggets lead by four, midway through the 1st, at the time of the first break, 6:17. PJ approaches the scorers table at 5:45. He enters a little over a minute later, leading by six, as Senior takes a seat. This one definitely has the look of a very low scoring game, which I predicted given that Denver's top three players are in their pj's sippin' Merlot. Zeke/Bones enter at 4:20, leading by eight. Hyland drains a three and the lead is eight with 2:23 to go. Rivers/Facu enter at this time, and no starters remain for the good guys. Facu vs TJ is interesting. Could get espicey!

Denver is paced in TPM by Will Barton: +8 as they lead 23-20 after one.

Qtr2- The connection of Bones/Nnaji is real folks! Three buckets on sweet dishes by Bones so far. Make that 4-4 after a lob from Bones to Zeke causes a rage-timeout by whomever is the Pacers coach these days. The lead is five at 10:35. The defensive intensity is picking up for Denver and they force two straight shot clock violations. Indy brings in their starters first at 9:11, trailing by eight. AG/Will re-enter at 7:44, leading now by four. Indy cuts it to two on the strength of a 6-0 run at 7:17. The starting five is now intact for Denver. AG's J is WAY the fuck off tonight. So is J-Mike's but that's not new.

The pace of this game is far slower than usual, and my dear dog Mazzy is hassling me for what is normally dinner at halftime. Gonna be about 15 minutes late tonight. The lead is one for Denver at 4:23. Indy takes the lead on two FT's for TC. The lead is now four on the strength of a 16-4 run for Indy. Will Los-Dos-Verdes EVER stick a three?!?! AG with some bully-ball for the and-1, is just what the doctor ordered, and we're tied with under 2:00 to play. Some sloppy attempts are exchanged by both squads prior to a prayer f a layup by Brogdon gives Indy the lead. Monte sticks a three and we're even-Steven at the half. Monte makes two in double digits for Denver. Time to feed Mazzy!

Denver is paced in TPM by Monte Morris: +11 as they are knotted up at 44, at the half.

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Qtr3- The Nuggets need to get better play out of AG and the Green's if they hope to remain in touch tonight. Sabonis is called for his second offensive foul for warding-off the defender. The Pacers score the first six points on two threes and lead by said margin, with 9:01 to go. Denver is 1-9 to open the period. Evidently, Rick Carlisle is the coach for Indy. I'll be damned. Bill Kennedy peers into my soul and says the challenge for Indy is successful. Denver has just four points at the 7 minute mark. PJ checks in for the struggling AG. Monte needs to appear; he seems to mentally still be in the locker room. Indy leads by one after a three by Will. A transition layup by Barton nets Denver the lead.

He's up to 19 points on the night. Bones replaces one of the Green's at 4:42, up by just one. Turner is an incredible shot blocker. Such outstanding timing. Nnaji is in shortly thereafter, followed by Rivers. Denver is struggling to secure rebounds which is not surprising with a lineup of Bones/Rivers/Barton/PJ & Zeke. Howard is in for Denver at 2:36, up one and he's immediatelycalled for a leg-kick foul on a three attempt. Zeke makes three in double digits for Denver, who lead by four after the and-1 by Bones. Hyland closes the period with a nice take, resulting in free throws. Excellent work by th rookie in this period to change the momentum, and a fantastic game so far. He Makes four in double digits for Denver.

Denver is paced in TPM by Monte Morris: +16 as they lead 69-65 after three.

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Qtr4- Rivers opens the scoring and the lead for Denver is six. AG, after exiting early in the third is readying himself at the scorers table early in the 4th. He enters at 9:47 for the innefective Howard. The lead is one at the time of the first break, 9:35. Duarte ties it up with a three at 8:15, before Zeke hits a three of his own. He has 17! Denver simply can not rebound tonight, unfortunately. Will/Monte enter at 7:13, leading by one. Will sticks a three then relinguishes one on the other end, as is his wont. Another three for Will! Nnaji is getting meaningful minutes here with the starters. Denver leads by three at 5:33 but Brogdon is en fuego for Indy. Will is equally on fire, and he's up to 28 on the night. The lead for Denver is 4 at 4:44. Jeff enters for Nnaji which is a mistake, IMHO. Dozier's numbers aren't popping off the chart tonight, but his play has been exceptional. The lead is 4 for Denver at 3:16 after Unc is kicked in the testes on a drive. Denver is in the bonus the rest of the way.

It looks like Malone will close with PJ instead of J-Mike, which is obvioiusly prudent. Brogdon cuts it to two on a drive at 2:06.That remains the differential with just under a minute remaining,as Carlissle calls a timeout. Jeff blocks a Sabonis shot; it didn't look like a foul, and Malone is chalenging. The bad thing is that it'll still be Indy's ball with ten seconds left on the clock, even if he wins the challenge. It is overturned, and contrary to what I understand about the rule, it results in a jump ball, when it clearly went out on Denver. AG wins the tap at center court. HUGE! Barton drives for two and the lead is four with 27 seconds remaining. Morris makes five in double digits for Denver, BTW. Lamb cuts the lead in half on an eeker of a layup with 14 to go. Bones checks in as a FT option. AG finds Unc for a wide open jam! Bones is fouled with 6 on the clock. He hits 1-2. The lead is three with 2 seconds to go. Lamb misses a three and Denver wins "The Barton game"

Denver is paced in TPM by Will Barton: +19/Monte Morris: +19 as they earn a huge victory, 98-96.

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Final Thoughts:

• Denver improves to 7-4 on the year.
  
• More Bones/Zeke minutes please.
  
• That was fun. Let's NEVER do it again.
  
• It's crystal clear why Denver strugged to score tonight; what's your excuse Indy?
• Zeke should replace J-Mike in the rotation. I've seen enough.
• When will is on fire as he has been the last two games, he's very good. When he's not, he needs to not loose focus defensively. Huge game tonight, in the absense of the lague's MVP.
  
• Much better 2nd half for AG.
• I for one, hope baby-Joker does NOT have diarrhea.
• I'm off to walk Mazzy and then celebrate in the DNVR winners lounge!
  

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 44-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.

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