Nuggets vs Grizzlies I: "Joker vs Bane Part I"

The Good Guys

Their Adversaries

Red boxes above indicate one notable number to catch my eye for each team

(Open images in a new tab for a closer look. Charts courtesy of ESPN.COM. All links contained within this piece will open in a new tab or window.)

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis.

In-game analysis will be provided for all games except for the second of B2B and/or weekend games. Data will be tracked for all 82 games, regardless of whether analysis is provided or not.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 7 MEM

Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic: +27

"Showtime" Michael Porter Jr: +9

Aaron "Aar" Gordon: +8

"Brontosaurus" Monte Morris: +17

Will "Thrill" Barton: -1

PJ "Bol" Dozier: +9

"Bones" Hyland: +9

Facundo "El Mago" Campazzo: -4

"Funcle" JaMychal Green: +5

"Uncle" Jeff Green: -2

Austin "Tributary" Rivers: N/A

Zeke "The Piano Man" Nnaji: N/A

Vlatko "Mr Olympia" Cancar: N/A

Bol Bol "Baggins": N/A

"Wet" Markus Howard: N/A

Petr "French Toast" Cornelie: N/A

Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray: N/A

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 7 games +196

Michael Porter Jr: 7 games +58

Aaron Gordon: 7 games +84

Monte Morris: 7 games +88

Will Barton: 7 games +77

PJ Dozier: 7 games +30

Bones Hyland: 4 games +33

Facundo Campazzo: 7 games +7

JaMychal Green: 7 games -2

Jeff Green: 7 games +23

Austin Rivers: 6 games +13

Zeke Nnaji: 2 games +3

Vlatko Cancar: 0 games +0

Bol Bol: 2 games +0

Markus Howard: 2 games +0

Petr Cornelie: 1 games +0

Jamal Murray: 0 games +0

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +28.00

Michael Porter Jr: +8.29

Aaron Gordon: +12.00

Monte Morris: +12.57

Will Barton: +11.00

PJ Dozier: +4.29

Bones Hyland: +8.25

Facundo Campazzo: +1.00

JaMychal Green: -0.29

Jeff Green: +3.29

Austin Rivers: +2.17

Zeke Nnaji: +1.50

Vlatko Cancar: +0.00

Bol Bol: +0.00

Markus Howard: +0.00

Petr Cornelie: +0.00

Jamal Murray: +0.00

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits (2020-'21 final numbers)

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet.

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Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Morris, Barton, MPJ, AG & the MVP. The Griz' counter with Ja, Bane, Melton, JJJ & Adams. SB Nation appears to be cooperating tonight. No typing lag for a change. Let Facu Grow! Joker wins the tap and we are under way. He also gets the scoring underway on a sweet dish from Monte. JJJ sticks two straight from distance and Memphis leads by four at 9:48. The two-man game of Monte/Jokic has been effective, but the lead is six for Memphis at 8:35. Ja capitalizes on a bad pass by Monte, resulting in a layup, and the lead is seven at the time of the first break, 7:37.

The bank appears to be open from distance for JJJ tonight and the lead is seven at 6:30. PJ/Facu/Jeff are first in for the good guys at 4:40, down seven. MPJ appears to have his head in the game for the first time in a great while, and he cuts it to three on consecutive buckets at 4:07. I gotta pee. BRB. That was refreshing. Barton returns for MPJ, while Senior replaces the MVP at 2:21, trailing by three. Sad that Vlatko is out tonight; no Konchar vs Cancar. The two teams trade buckets down the stretch which is about as good as you can hope for with Denver's bench-squad.

Denver is paced in TPM by Monte Morris: +11 as they trail 26-33 after one.

Qtr2- Barton has been very sloppy with the ball in his pseudo-homecoming. Deep breaths, Thrill. As always, Denver is all perimeter with their bench unit, and trail by five at 10:45. You can't get paint-threes if you never enter the paint. It's clear that Will is amped tonight but it's led to more L's than W's thus-far. Bones is checking in at 9:08, trailing by three. The lead is now seven after consecutive careless passes by Will and Jeff, at the time of the first break, 8:19. I don't love the short stints that Malone has been giving PJ lately, and would prefer to have Facu or Will sit to extend them. MPJ checks in for Will and we'll get the always-fun MPJ/Bones minutes. Senior is kind enough to wear a white t-shirt under his navy-blue uni tonight, so we can tell Dos Verdes apart.

Monte/AG/Jokic are in at 6:21, trailing by six. It's the starters plus Bones minus Barton; my personal favorite grouping. MPJ is very engaged on D, thanks to his shot falling in the early going. Jenkins is ONE LOUD FUCKING COACH! Barton is in for Bones at 4:09, trailing by five. Malone has to figure out this stagger; Barton is playing way too many minutes. AG with the Jokic water-polo layup on a sleek feed by the MVP. The starters for Denver are restoring order, and cut the lead to just one at 2:57. I want to see more PJ on Ja in the second half. Barton/Monte can't stay in front of him. The good news is that no starters are in foul trouble for Denver; only one foul in fact (Barton.) It's even-Steven at 55, with under a minute remaining. Denver takes the one point lead on a dunk by AG, before Ja takes Will off the dribble for three.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +19 as they trail 58-60 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Nuggets will have no trouble scoring vs this hapless D for Memphis. The key is going to be sound defense and boxing out. MPJ with an EXCELLENT, predictive lob, passes MVP open for an and-1. Denver leads by one at 10:29.MPJ is focused defensively tonight and is now starting to get more active on the glass; just what Dr Patrick ordered. Ja might be as bad defensively as he is great on offense. JJJ and AG bang heads and are both down for an extended period; JJJ's 4th foul, that. Correction, JJJ poked AG in the eye, and AG's knee hit JJJ on the way down. Marlowe's hands are evidentally freezing tonight according to Hastings. Gettin frisky on the sidelines, are we fellas? Just don't sizzle the pits. Marlowe evidentally didn't follow my sound advise on twitter today, and Scott is still struggling.

Denver is just 2-17 from distance, which is of course, abysmal. The lead for Denver is one at 6:50. PJ/ Jeff enter for Denver at 6:18, leading by one. Two quik fouls by Jokic; his only two. Facu replaces Monte at 4:47, trailing by one. PJ sticks a step back three and Denver leads by one at 3:46, then blocks Ja's shot on the ensuing posession. I love being right about things. Denver can not buy a three tonight and the lead is now six, after Memphis drains two of them in a row, at 2:41. The bench + Barton are in for Denver vs Memphis bench + Ja, and it's nervous time for the good guys.

Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +27 as they trail 73-84 after three.

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Qtr4- AG is questionable to return after that eye-poke by JJJ. Denver is 4-24 from three. You're not gonna beat anybody in today's NBA like that. JJJ has his 5th foul early, which is not foreign territory to him. Memphis is hearting up from beyond the arc, and the lead is now 12 at the time of the first break, 10:55. Barton + bench simply ain't it, Malone. Barton + BONES with the bench, minus Facu, appears to be where they need to land. Coach is reading along once again, and Bones is in at this time, for Facu. This is my prefered bench alignment for Denver. Lets see how it goes. Bones gets under Bain's skin by stealing the ball after the whistle and it's safe to say that he's now the Bane of Bane's existence. Bully-Bones. It's very stop & go right now which is good for Denver as it means Joker may be able to re-enter relatively early. As it is,

Memphis leads by 14 at 10:08. AG is set to check in which is obviously ideal. Denver's bench simply can not grab a board. Bane is a bitch. There, I said it. AG/MPJ are in at8:45, trailing by 15. Jokic enters at 7:44, trailing by 12. MPJ makes two in double digits for Denver. PJ has been the lone bright spot for Denver's second team. Monte enters at 7:02 for him, trailing by 13. Bones hits Monte on a sweet drive & dish for what seems like the first three of the game for Denver, trimming the lead to 10 at 6:43. Bones cuts it to nine on a three at 5:40. Slow-Mo Anderson with three straight buckets and the lead is 13 at 4:32. Bones remains in for Barton which surprises me, because its the right move by Malone. The lead is 9 after a rare transition bucket for Denver. For a terrible defensive team, damn, is Memphis awful handsy. The lead is 10 with 90 seconds remaining. AG misses a three and that should about do it at 1:01.

Denver is paced in TPM byNikola Jokic: +27 as they lose the front-end of a two game set with Memphis, 97-106.

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Final Thoughts:

• Denver loses on the road, and drops to 4-3 on the year.
  
• Second straight bad game for Barton.
• I don't believe staggering Barton and or Porter is the answer. I think playing Bones for Rivers is the answer and if Facu/Dos Verdes can't figure it out on their own, it may be time to give some of the young guys (namely Howard and Zeke) some with the bench.
  

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats, but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM, which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric, because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 44-year-old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was, in this case, interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly appreciate your the support.

I can be found at @prmorphine on Twitter.

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

And as always, get the jab, wear the mask, act like a good person privately and especially in public; even if you are not, and most importantly, fuck the Lakers.

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