With the rest of the 2019-2020 NBA season on hold since March 11th, so too has the offseason that is supposed to follow. If the season had followed its normal course, we would have already experienced Summer League and the bulk of free agency. But, happily, the hiatus WILL be over soon! Starting July 30th, basketball fans will have more basketball to watch than ever! But what will happen? In this series, I will (attempt to) predict what will happen with awards voting, the rest of the season, the draft, free agency, and all of the trades in between.

Third, the rest of the season!

Eastern Conference

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Washington Wizards are projected to finish last in the bubble, winning only one game out of their schedule of 8, ending the season with a grand total of 25 wins (note: I combined the projected win totals from 538’s RAPTOR and Elo forecasts in an attempt to eliminate the fallacies of both individual stats). Right now, the Nets are 7.5 games up and the Magic are 8 games up, which are the only two teams in danger of being knocked out by the Wizards. The Magic are projected to win 3 more games and the Nets 1-2, which would put the Wizards out of their misery, who would have to win 4 more games than one of the two to even trigger the play-in tournament. However, even with the injury to Jonathan Isaac, I don’t believe either the Nets or Wizards have enough NBA players on roster to catch the Magic for the 7th seed. The 6th, 7th, and 8th seeds (Pacers/76ers, Magic, and Nets) will have little to no chance to win a game in the 1st round, much less the series, against the Celtics, Raptors, and Bucks, respectively. Hopefully for the Nets and Wizards, their best seasons lie ahead of them, with the returns of stars John Wall, Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving next season. The 4th/5th seed series will be the most interesting first round series, per usual, as will the two teams that end up making the 4 and 5 out of the trio of the 76ers, Pacers, and Heat. FiveThirtyEight loves the 76ers, who I am a little more down on, and has them as the 4 seed over the Heat. Right now, the Heat are one game up on the Pacers and 2.5 games up on the 76ers, and I would probably have the Heat as the favorites for 4th, but it doesn’t really matter which is which, since every game is an away game for everyone and the two teams will likely play each other no matter what. Right now, I am giving the advantage in seeding to the Pacers over the 76ers, with how slow the 76ers have come out the gate compared to how strong the Pacers have played, but I could see this flipping easily with how talented the 76ers roster is, with the potential remaining for them to even overtake the Heat for the 4th seed. I predict the Heat to emerge from the 1st round victorious, routing the Pacers in 5-6 games. The Heat and Pacers should be proud of their seasons, no matter the playoff result, but the 76ers failing to emerge from the 1st round would cap off what was ultimately a failed season for them, leading to a tough offseason ahead. For the second round, I predict the #1 seed Bucks to play the Heat, who will be disposed of fairly quickly by the Bucks (5 games-ish), and the Raptors to play the Celtics, which is one of my most anticipated series. I see that series going 7 games, but unless Kemba Walker is really injured, I like the Celtics to win this series too with all of their star power on the wing. The Eastern Conference Finals will likely be less contested than that previous series, 6 games-ish no matter who makes it, which is less of an indictment on those teams and more of a statement on how talented the Bucks are, who are one of the top three teams that I see truly contending for a championship this year. The Bucks aversion to the luxury tax, however, even as a championship level team, could be what costs them a championship and, ultimately, Giannis himself.

Western Conference

Like the East, the West has a few teams that have separated themselves at the top, the dregs at the bottom, and a fairly interchangeable group of teams in between those two sections. The two LA teams, the Lakers and Clippers, have put some distance between themselves and the rest of the West, and are fairly unlikely to even switch spots among themselves. The Nuggets, Rockets, Jazz, Thunder, and Mavericks are all now locked into the playoffs, and I’m going to be ordering them based on my perception of their play so far in the bubble. The Rockets have been the best of all these teams so far and are only a game and a half behind the Nuggets, whose depth has been devastated so far, so I am moving the Rockets above them for the 3rd seed. With how talented Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are though, I will leave them in the 4th seed and have them play the Thunder in the 1st round. I am moving the Thunder above the Jazz, interestingly because of the Thunder’s depth. The Jazz were devastated with news of Bojan Bogdanovic missing the rest of this season due to injury, and my faith in the rest of their roster to slide up one spot is very low, so I have them as my 6th seed. The Mavericks, once thought to be a potential spoiler as a low seed coming into the bubble, continue to struggle late in games even with the strong individual play of Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic, and are still winless in the bubble. With their fall to the 7th seed and a 1st round matchup with the Clippers on the horizon, the Mavericks have a next to nothing chance to win a series this year, which has to be a disappointing end for what was such a strong start to the season for Luka and the Mavericks. The race for the 8th seed is still miraculously wide open to all the remaining West teams. Even the Phoenix Suns, who many thought did not deserve an invitation to the bubble (including myself) have gotten off to a strong, if somewhat unsustainable start, winning their first two games and planting themselves firmly in the mix. With a two game lead on the closest team, I imagine that the Grizzlies make the 8th seed outright but will have to play in a play-in series. Based on the standings, it looks like the Spurs are in pole position for the play-in series, but I would personally take the Portland Trail Blazers. With the Trail Blazers only bubble loss so far coming in a closely-fought game with the Celtics, I have more faith in their star power than any of the other play-in candidates. The Pelicans specifically have disappointed with their play so far in the bubble, but like all of these candidates, a playoff berth would only be a cherry on top for these teams with so much more ahead of them in their future. I expect the Lakers, Clippers, and Rockets to win in 5 games or less, and for the Nuggets to beat the Thunder in 6 games. In the 2nd round, I once again expect the Lakers to beat the Nuggets in around 5 games, but I feel like Rockets/Clippers could be more tightly contested, lasting about 6 games. Lakers/Clippers in the Conference Finals has been circled for many since last summer, and I believe this will be a long, hard-fought 7-gamer. For me, this is the true Finals, as whichever team wins here will be the winner against the Bucks, even though I likewise see the Finals as 7 games as well. I choose the Lakers as my world champion, as I have real questions about several players that should be in the rotation for the Clippers, like Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell, as well as their ability to match up with Anthony Davis. With the Bucks having DPOY Giannis and All-Defensive candidate Brook Lopez, I imagine they will have a much easier time shutting down AD as a whole and at least limit the driving ability of LeBron than the Clippers will, but I would imagine LeBron has a field day in the Finals as the point guard that he has assumed the role of all season long. The question for the Lakers will be the play of their role players like Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, and their legion of bench shooters, and whether they can capitalize on the opportunities afforded to them by the Bucks’ defensive strategy.