Why Nikola Jokic’s Weight Loss Hurts the Nuggets
The grass isn’t always greener on the other side. By now, many NBA fanatics have seen and been shocked to witness a slender Nikola Jokic, after he reportedly lost between 30-50 pounds over these COVID-19 riddled 4 months. Immediately after seeing photo evidence, the memes, comparisons, and jokes spewed out like vomit after a few too many shots of tequila on a Saturday night. A part of that vomit was many optimistic Denver Nuggets fans who had a growing belief that this weight loss will only help Jokic’s game and make the Nuggets a better basketball team because of it. Nuggets fans should remain cautious as this may unexpectedly send their team packing from Walt Disney World sooner than they had hoped.
Even though he used to look like a Snorlax lumbering down the court (sorry non-pokemon fans), Jokic’s weight was an extremely valuable part of his versatility and overall effectiveness in his offensive game. Jokic has exceptional skills on offense ranging from his unique passing and playmaking prowess out of the high post, to his ability to stretch the defense behind the three point line, but ultimately the two important areas of his game which will suffer the most are his post game (aside from faceup jumpshots) and finishing offensive rebound putbacks. Even though Jokic has a seemingly innate touch, footwork, and skillset on the low post unlike anyone currently in the league, a lot of his ability to get to his spots, create separation, and get quality shots off was due to his weight and strength. Jokic’s strength allowed him to bully defenders, making them off balance, and helped him get deeper into the paint where he could take and make high percentage shots. However, without the weight he may not have the same ease and efficiency with the physical aspects of scoring on the block such as hook shots, dropsteps, and offensive rebound putbacks.
This situation is eerily similar to that of Kevin Love’s body transformation from his time with the Minnesota Timberwolves versus his GQ modelling days in Cleveland. With the idea that he would need to run more in Cleveland, Kevin Love lost 30 pounds (from 270 to 240 pounds) and admitted to Sports Illustrated back in 2014 that "[he] got too skinny" when he initially joined the Cavaliers. Simple minded readers and researchers could blow up my whole argument saying that Kevin Love actually became a more efficient post up scorer. As per Synergy Sports, Love’s points per possession (PPP) on post ups increased from 0.917 to 0.983 and his field goal percentage improved from 44% to 46.2% from the 2013-2014 season to the 2014-2015 season when the weight loss occurred. However, this was during the time the NBA was transitioning to a three-point heavy shooting league, after the world witnessed the San Antonio Spurs dismantle an overwhelmed Miami Heat team in five games with a flurry of wide open threes and efficient shot taking and making from behind the arc unlike anything seen before. NBA teams began to model their offense after the Spurs, and according to NBA.com, the league went from 8 teams attempting over 24 three point field goal attempts per game, to 13 teams reaching this mark the very next season. This all applies to Kevin Love’s post up scoring because teams began to play smaller lineups due to the three point shooting revolution, which in turn should have created more mismatches for Love in the post and hence an increase in efficiency. Although, with a true deep dive into the stats, the reason Kevin Love’s efficiency in the post increased was because he became an outstanding faceup jump shooter, as per Synergy Sports in 2013-2014, on the left block where over 75% of his post touches were, 18.8% of his offense came on faceup jumpshots which resulted in 0.904 PPP, whereas in 2014-2015 with approximately the same amount of post touches on the left block (74.6%), he utilized the faceup jumpshot on 27.4% of these possessions and had an exceptional 1.105 PPP on these shots. Kevin Love becoming a better faceup jump shooter is the single reason why his post scoring efficiency increased which has nothing to do with his weight loss. Even with the NBA in the midst of its small ball transformation, Love’s rebounding numbers plummeted which hampered his ability to get easy baskets on putbacks, however even when the opportunity was there, Love’s field goal percentage in the restricted zone dropped significantly from 65.2% in 2013-2014 to 59.1% in 2014-2015. Specifically, Love’s efficiency on physical post moves such as hook shots and offensive rebound putbacks decreased, as per Synergy Sports, Love’s most utilized post move was a hook shot over his left shoulder on the left block and his PPP on this shot dropped slightly from 0.967 to 0.963 and his PPP on putbacks decreased significantly from 1.189 PPP on 56.7% shooting and 75th percentile in the league to 0.954 PPP on 44.6% shooting and 27th percentile in the league. Not to mention that all of the shots that were taken in the latter season were as a tertiary playmaker and scorer while he had single coverage and more space to play because of LeBron and Kyrie being on the court with him simultaneously. Getting back to Nikola Jokic’s situation, he does not have as reliable of a jumpshot to fallback on as Kevin Love and he does not have the same offensive weapons around him and he is relied upon more heavily than Love ever was on those LeBron led Cleveland teams. Moreover, if Love’s weight loss foreshadows what is about to happen to Nikola Jokic’s rebounding, post-up, and paint scoring production, then the Nuggets could be in more trouble of seeing their newfound weaknesses exploited.
Lastly, another smaller but often unnoticed and valuable part of Jokic’s game (unlike Kevin Love) is his ability to get teammates open with dribble handoffs (DHOs) or as a screener. According to NBA.com, this season Jokic averages 4.3 screen assists per game, with a total of 277 screen assists which is tied for sixth in the NBA and results in over 9.5 Denver Nuggets points per game. Jokic this season has been able to set bruising screens and be an irritant to get around in DHOs due to his wide frame and strength when he bumps into a defender. Now with his weight loss, defenders will most likely be one extra step faster moving around Jokic’s screens or DHOs, and that one step could be of significant importance for opposing teams getting a slightly better contest on a Jamal Murray pull-up or Gary Harris three pointer, resulting in a stop. This difference along with a potential drop off in Jokic’s scoring efficiency in the paint could be detrimental to the Nuggets offense and be the deciding factor between a Nuggets win or loss in a close playoff game.
Maybe Jokic’s new physique will enhance his speed, quickness, and athleticism to a point that positively meshes with his skillset and playmaking more than expected, although the more likely scenario is that it only increases his speed with the ball and his speed attacking closeouts at the most. The NBA community is not expecting Jokic to be an athletic specimen after this four month hiatus. Even with the weight loss, there will never be an - it’s a bird, no it’s a plane, no it’s Nikola Jokic, superheroistic joke made about him. Jokic will not consistently out pace defenders with his speed or be a lob threat like DeAndre Jordan, which is why his weight was such a crucial component of his offensive skillset. Also, Jokic being skinnier does not necessarily mean his cardio will improve within a basketball game. There are many factors to endurance in basketball and as a big man one of the most tiring aspects of the game is the physicality that comes with being in the post, boxing out, and rebounding the basketball. With less weight, Jokic will have to exert more energy trying to fight off stronger bigs, like Aquaman himself, Steven Adams and other behemoths such as Joel Embiid, Jusuf Nurkic, and Marc Gasol, just to name a few. Jokic catching elbows and getting bumped on every possession while having a weaker frame during games with playoff intensity, will be a hindrance to his need to defend and box out on the defensive end and it could contribute more to another fatigued playoff run for Jokic than the pace of the game ever did.
Hopefully Jokic proves some doubters wrong and soars a few feet off the ground for some high-flying dunks in Orlando and propels the Nuggets on a long playoff run. But, until then, Nuggets fans should hold their breath as we will all be watching to see if the grass really is greener on the other side.
