With the rest of the 2019-2020 NBA season on hold since March 11th, so too has the offseason that is supposed to follow. If the season had followed its normal course, we would have already experienced Summer League and the bulk of free agency. But, happily, the hiatus WILL be over soon! Starting July 30th, basketball fans will have more basketball to watch than ever! But what will happen? In this series, I will (attempt to) predict what will happen with awards voting, the rest of the season, the draft, free agency, and all of the trades in between.
First, individual awards!
Most Valuable Player
MVP is down to essentially just Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James, and it’s really just Giannis. Giannis has put two incredible MVP seasons together, back to back, at the age of just 25. If Milwaukee could, I’m sure they’d offer the Greek Freak a 10-year, Mahomes-style contract tomorrow, but alas, they cannot.
Defensive Player of the Year
DPOY is a little bit more difficult to nail down. Rudy Gobert was seen to be a frontrunner for the award once again, going for a threepeat, but may have lost some steam down the stretch with voters for his antics that were seen as cancelling the season for everybody. No matter what, he may have suffered from voter fatigue for winning three times in a row. This is where Giannis comes in. In addition to awarding Giannis MVP, voters could side with Giannis over Gobert for DPOY due to Giannis’ ability to cover 1-5, whereas Rudy is more of a traditional anchor at the 5. Giannis would be very deserving of the award for his sublime season, but one has to wonder if voters are choosing him for the right reasons. Anthony Davis is another strong candidate for this year, as he has been able to focus on defense as opposed to offense this year, compared to previous years in his career when he had the pressure of being the best player on the New Orleans Pelicans, but I think AD falls in the No Man’s Land between Giannis and Rudy in terms of who he guards. He’s less versatile than Giannis and less of an anchor than Gobert, which lends him to kind of being a jack of all trades, but master of fewer than Giannis and Rudy.
Sixth Man of the Year
6MOY is always a tricky award to give out. Voter criteria seems to change often. My choice would be Montrezl Harrell. Trez has anchored one of the strongest bench units in the league this year. Not to mention, the Clippers are a major title contender this year and one of the few that has had to battle with extended injury and rest absences from its two stars, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Dennis Schroder is another serious competitor with the strong play of the Oklahoma City Thunder this season, but their success is less because of Schroder and more because of strong play from its triumvirate of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, and, of course, Chris Paul. Trez always brings high energy and efficiency, which can be struggles for Schroder and Lou Williams, another premier 6MOY candidate on Trez’s own team.
Rookie of the Year
ROY is Ja Morant’s, especially after the NBA’s announcement that awards voting will be based on the season before the shutdown, not on what happens in the bubble. If the bubble were to take place, and Zion Williamson managed to overtake Morant’s Grizzlies in the playoff race, voters may feel more inclined to vote for Zion, even with how few games he’s played this season. This year bears a remarkable resemblance to the 2017 ROY race. In this scenario, Ja is a much better candidate than Malcolm Brogdon, and Joel Embiid was a much better candidate than Zion, but the similarities are still there. R.J. Barrett put up inefficient counting stats on a horrific Knicks roster. Brandon Clarke had such a strong rookie season, also for the Grizzlies, that it nearly takes away from Ja’s greatness. Like the Grizzlies, the Heat also had a tremendous rookie wing duo in Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro who somewhat limit each other’s cases. However, Ja should be the winner by a significant margin, and the friendship/rivalry between he and Zion should be one to monitor for years to come.
Most Improved Player
A common argument in MIP every year is whether second year players should be eligible for the award, as there are several superstar prospects that make a big leap from their first to second years. This year is no exception, with several candidates including Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Devonte Graham. Personally, I believe their improvement has more to do with the jump that most rookies are expected to take as second year players, and not as unexpected as the improvement that players past that stage of their career make, like the jumps of Brandon Ingram, Bam Adebayo, and Domantas Sabonis this year. In my opinion, Sabonis is the clear 3rd place out of the three. Sabonis and Adebayo have both improved as scorers, rebounders, and passers in expanded roles, compared to previous years, on good, playoff teams in the East. Adebayo has improved slightly more as a scorer and has always been far better on defense than Sabonis, so I give Adebayo 2nd place. My personal knocks on Sabonis and Adebayo were there relatively static shooting splits compared to previous years. This is an area that Ingram has soared, increasing his 3PT and FT percentages to near-elite numbers, compared to the fairly sub-par numbers of his past years. Ingram’s numbers have also boosted his scoring in a similarly comparable amount to Sabonis and Adebayo, with around 50% increases over their previous career levels. Siakam is an honorable mention, as he isn’t a second year guy, but on the other hand, he’s already won the award. This shouldn’t necessarily discount him, but effectively does.
Coach of the Year
COY seems to be Nick Nurse’s to lose. Even going into the season as the incumbent NBA champion, expectations for the Raptors were fairly low, and fairly so, as Finals MVP and likely best playoff basketball player in the world Kawhi Leonard departed for LA. But, thanks to another massive leap from reigning MIP Pascal Siakam, a full season from OG Anunoby, the emergence of strong bench play from developmental guys like Terence Davis and Chris Boucher, and strong play from veterans Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, and even an aging Marc Gasol, the Toronto Raptors would be the favorites to make the Finals for the second year in a row, if not for the superhuman, MVP play of Giannis and the Bucks. The Raptors are THE feel-good story of the year, and Nick Nurse deserves a heap of credit.
Executive of the Year
EOY is another tricky award typically. This year, not as much. A flashy move, like acquiring Paul George (and thus Kawhi Leonard) after years of quality team-building by Clippers President of Basketball Operations Lawrence Frank, typically makes one the favorite. I would argue that the other end of the Frank’s PG deal, Oklahoma City Thunder GM Sam Presti, for not only the PG deal, but also the Russell Westbrook and Jerami Grant deals, which have now netted the Thunder a total of (drumroll please!) 8 first round picks, 4 first round swaps, Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Danilo Gallinari. Presti got (arguably) the better player in the Paul/Westbrook swap, with a year shorter contract, and will likely get an additional positive asset when Paul is inevitably dealt. Additionally, Shai looks like a foundational piece already while still being under team control for another 6 years or so, Gallo nearly netted another asset at the trade deadline (and still have the possibility of getting an asset in a sign-and-trade deal for him this offseason with how little cap space is available), and solid young-ish players like Dennis Schroder and Steven Adams have the potential to stick around for the long rebuild, or, even better, be dealt for more assets. Lawrence Frank’s moves are much more win-now, which people love to see, but Sam Presti’s actions signal an organizational mandate to do things the right way, from the top down, and not completely ignore the present but prioritize the future. In a similar move, Rob Pelinka may be in the discussion after the acquisition of Anthony Davis, as should David Griffin with all of the assets that he received in return for Anthony Davis, but Pelinka specifically should be stained with the black mark of AD’s trade request specifically to the Lakers. Trade requests to specific teams depress the market of the other teams and made it nearly impossible for the Pelicans to generate any competition for AD’s market, but, to their credit, the Pelicans still got nearly everything the Lakers had.
