The Good Guys
Their adversaries
Nuggets vs Kings I: "Balls out"
If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece and you enjoy gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post-game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.
Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.
Got it? Or as the immortal Syd Barrett might say, "Have you got it yet?"
I've also recently made a compilation of all of Pink Floyd's essential studio works, including solo projects of all five members, all in chronological order from '65-2017 which you can check out here.
And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!
(After these messages... Er Nicknames)
Denver Nuggets Roster
| Name | POS | Age | HT | WT | College | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
SF
|
29
|
6' 5"
|
181 lbs
|
Memphis
|
$13,723,214
|
|
 |
C
|
21
|
7' 2"
|
209 lbs
|
Oregon
|
$2,058,240
|
|
 |
PG
|
29
|
5' 11"
|
165 lbs
|
--
|
$3,200,000
|
|
 |
SF
|
23
|
6' 8"
|
236 lbs
|
--
|
$1,517,981
|
|
 |
PG
|
24
|
6' 6"
|
205 lbs
|
South Carolina
|
$1,762,796
|
|
 |
PF
|
30
|
6' 8"
|
227 lbs
|
Alabama
|
$7,199,760
|
|
 |
PG
|
19
|
6' 6"
|
176 lbs
|
--
|
$2,193,040
|
|
 |
SG
|
26
|
6' 4"
|
205 lbs
|
Michigan State
|
$19,610,714
|
|
 |
C
|
22
|
7' 0"
|
249 lbs
|
--
|
$1,620,564
|
|
 |
PG
|
21
|
5' 11"
|
180 lbs
|
Marquette
|
--
|
|
 |
C
|
25
|
7' 0"
|
284 lbs
|
--
|
$29,542,010
|
|
 |
PF
|
35
|
6' 7"
|
257 lbs
|
Louisiana Tech
|
$1,000,000
|
|
 |
PG
|
25
|
6' 2"
|
183 lbs
|
Iowa State
|
$1,588,231
|
|
 |
PG
|
23
|
6' 4"
|
215 lbs
|
Kentucky
|
$27,285,000
|
|
 |
PF
|
19
|
6' 11"
|
240 lbs
|
Arizona
|
$2,284,800
|
|
 |
PF
|
22
|
6' 10"
|
218 lbs
|
Missouri
|
$3,550,800
|
|
 |
SF
|
27
|
6' 8"
|
212 lbs
|
Georgetown
|
--
|
Coach: Michael "Post" Malone
Sacramento Kings Roster
| Name | POS | Age | HT | WT | College | Salary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
PF
|
21
|
6' 11"
|
235 lbs
|
Duke
|
$8,963,640
|
|
 |
SF
|
28
|
6' 8"
|
225 lbs
|
North Carolina
|
$22,215,909
|
|
 |
PF
|
32
|
6' 10"
|
234 lbs
|
--
|
$7,150,000
|
|
 |
PG
|
23
|
6' 3"
|
185 lbs
|
Kentucky
|
$8,099,627
|
|
 |
SG
|
23
|
6' 1"
|
167 lbs
|
Virginia
|
--
|
|
 |
PG
|
20
|
6' 5"
|
175 lbs
|
Iowa State
|
$3,831,840
|
|
 |
SG
|
28
|
6' 4"
|
220 lbs
|
Oklahoma
|
$24,701,834
|
|
 |
C
|
27
|
6' 10"
|
235 lbs
|
Bowling Green
|
$5,005,350
|
|
 |
SG
|
23
|
6' 7"
|
190 lbs
|
Wyoming
|
$1,517,981
|
|
 |
SG
|
23
|
6' 5"
|
230 lbs
|
Tulsa
|
$1,445,697
|
|
 |
PG
|
29
|
6' 3"
|
200 lbs
|
Texas
|
$12,600,000
|
|
 |
PF
|
25
|
6' 8"
|
245 lbs
|
Duke
|
$6,500,000
|
|
 |
SG
|
19
|
6' 3"
|
190 lbs
|
Texas Tech
|
$1,000,000
|
|
 |
SF
|
26
|
6' 6"
|
222 lbs
|
Michigan
|
$1,620,564
|
|
 |
C
|
31
|
7' 0"
|
265 lbs
|
Marshall
|
$1,620,564
|
|
 |
SG
|
21
|
6' 7"
|
235 lbs
|
Mississippi State
|
$1,500,000
|
Coach: Luke "Tiddy" Walton
Update: JaMychal Green and Greg Whittington will miss the opener with a left calf strain and left knee sprain respectively, per Brendan Vogt. MPJ, not Barton, was named starter just prior to tip off. HALLELUJAH!
Re-up: Yes I'm aware that trades/acquisitions may have been made and the above roster and or coach for the opposing team may be inaccurate. Hopefully you are aware that the fan-post format isn't equipped to make adjustments to the above template so it often results in entire pieces being destroyed and or hours of work being lost. Simply put, it's not worth the additional effort/risk to change once the Nuggets have faced an opponent once. No disrespect intended. Tune in next season and I assure you the first time Denver plays your team, the roster will be up to date.
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Data:
TPM™ Game 1 SAC (Starters in bold)
Nikola Jokic: +51
Jamal Murray: -3
Michael Porter Jr: +17
Will Barton: +11
Gary Harris: +7
Paul Millsap: +14
Monte Morris: -5
Isaiah Hartenstein: -2
JaMychal Green: N/A
PJ Dozier: +7
Bol Bol:N/A
Facundo Campazzo: +1
Zeke Nnaji: N/A
RJ Hampton: N/A
Vlatko Cancar: N/A
Greg Whittington: N/A
Markus Howard: N/A
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Total TPM™
Nikola Jokic: 1 games +51
Jamal Murray: 1 games -3
Michael Porter Jr: 1 games +17
Will Barton: 1 games +11
Gary Harris: 1 games +7
Paul Millsap: 1 games +14
Monte Morris: 1 games -5
Isaiah Hartenstein: 0 games -2
JaMychal Green: N/A
PJ Dozier: 1 games +7
Bol Bol: N/A
Facundo Campazzo: 1 games +1
Zeke Nnaji: N/A
RJ Hampton: N/A
Vlatko Cancar: N/A
Greg Whittington: N/A
Markus Howard: N/A
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
Nikola Jokic: +51.00
Jamal Murray: -3.00
Michael Porter Jr: +17.00
Will Barton: +11.00
Gary Harris: +7.00
Paul Millsap: +14.00
Monte Morris: -5.00
Isaiah Hartenstein: -2.00
JaMychal Green: N/A
PJ Dozier: +7.00
Bol Bol:N/A
Facundo Campazzo: +1.00
Zeke Nnaji: N/A
RJ Hampton: N/A
Vlatko Cancar: N/A
Greg Whittington: N/A
Markus Howard: N/A
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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 0: (temporarily last season's chart to allow time for new data)
*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak
Analysis:
Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their opening night starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, MPJ, Millsap & Jokic. The Kings counter with Fox, Hield, Barnes, Bagley & Whiteside
Here we go ladies and gents. Mission; pandemic-'ship is underway in earnest, as is the MPJ era. Gary Harris gets the festivities underway with a J from the top of the key. 'Sap follows that with a three and Denver continues it's pre-season strategy of going to it's least offensively proficient starters early. Fox looks especially aerodynamic this year with his sheared locks. Denver has doubled up the Kings at 7:49 as MPJ exists with two fouls and a seemingly minor leg injury. Jokic is very frustrated with the officiating in the early going.
Denver leads by four at the time of the first break, 5:57. Corey Joseph is giving me some severe Jameer PTSD right now. Barton has looked very good offensively. Morris and Dozier enter at 4:12, leading by six. Facu makes his NBA debut shortly thereafter as Denver goes with it's 3PG/Barton/Jokic lineup. Murray checks out with two fouls. I'm not sure if I've ever witnessed Will man the 4 before. They lead by three as they enter a timeout at 2:45. Monster makes his Denver debut following the break. He scores on a pretty lob by Barton.
Denver is paced in TPM by Will Barton: +15 as they lead 31-25 after one.
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Qtr2- Monster has two quick fouls and Denver leads by four at 11:07, as MPJ/Gary check in. That micro-ball lineup wasn't very successful. MPJ hits a three and the lead is six at 10:00. Monster is getting mugged out there as was Joker before him. He earns his third on a weak-ass offensive foul call and is replaced by Jokic at 9:11. Corey Joseph is WAY faster than Jameer. MPJ quickly is ticketed for his third foul and he's replaced by Jamal at 8:27. Bagley is FINALLY called for his muggery.
Barton/Dozier have been the only effective bench players thus far, as Denver leads by six at 7:11. Denver has gone cold from the floor in the second but maintain a two point lead at 5:50. Jokic makes two in double digits for Denver on a ferocious dunk at 4:20. Jokic has his third block and Denver leads by four at the time of a break, 2:12. He already has a 2D with 10/10/5 and 90 seconds remaining. Millsap makes three in double digits for Denver.
Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +20 as they lead 60-53 at the half.
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Qtr3- Denver needs to come out with more focus and energy as every game is more crucial in this abbreviated season. They also need to avoid silly fouls. Sacramento is the aggressor early and the lead is two at 10:15. MPJ makes four in double digits for Denver, in only nine minutes of action. Big Honey is just three assists shy of a 3D at 8:55. Murray is 0-5 from the floor tonight as Denver leads by three at 8:00. The Kings tie it up at 80, on three free throws from Hield on a flop-three attempt. Soon after they take their first lead over the listless Nuggets who are unfortunately following Murray's lead in the second half, courtesy of a 24-10 run. Fox/Hield have outscored Murray/Harris 24-11. No bueno.
Holmes exits with 5 fouls at 5:45, as Sacramento leads by one. The "crowd" chants "air-ball" after a three. Obnoxious, that. Fouls are adding up on the Kings big men as Bagley earns his 4th. He's replaced by Whiteside, leading by one. The bench unit for Denver begins filtering in at 4:00, trailing by one. Only Harris/Jokic remain in for the good guys. Dozier and Facu are supplying the defensive energy as Denver trails by one at the time of a timeout, 2:05. Jokic has played the whole third period. Millsap replaces him at the break so it appears Monster may be done for the night. This lineup is MINUSCULE with Facu/Morris/Barton/Dozier/Millsap. Jokic apparently added an assist before exiting so he has his opening night 3D.
Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic: +36 as they trail 89-84 after three.
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Qtr4- MPJ/Monster/Murray are in to open the 4th period. Odd substitution pattern tonight for Malone. Murray/Morris have been the two worst players; throw them out there together. Sacramento leads by five at 9:42. The lead is eight, following a three by Hield at 8:41. This has been a shitty game for the Nuggets. No better descriptor than that unfortunately. The starters minus Millsap plus Barton are out there to close; a closing unit we should expect on most nights. Murray flies high for a hammer-jam; his first field goal on the evening. Denver trails by five at the time of a commercial break, 6:50. Denver trails by three after two straight buckets by MPJ, at 5:31. Millsap enters for Barton at this time and forces a traveling call on Barnes (first time of many opportunities, in which he's been sited. Harris makes five in double digits for Denver. Of the starters, only Murray (9) is not. Jokic fouls Holmes out and converts the &-1 to cut the lead to two at 3:06.Correction, he misses his third freebie on the night and MPJ puts it in to cut it to one. Bagley fouls out as well and Jokic heads to the line where he converts both and Denver finally has the lead again with 2:35 remaining. Murray is afraid to shoot and is a non-contributive participant as a result. Sacramento retakes a two point lead on consecutive buckets, at 1:49.
Denver challenges an offensive foul called on Murray. I question this as it's Sacramento's ball on the rebound either way. Sometimes you are better off using your challenge on a sure thing earlier in the game. There were CERTAINLY opportunities in the third period in particular. They lose the challenge and Murray fouls out; not actually a bad thing on this night IMHO. Barton enters for Jamal. The lead for Sacramento at 1:24 is still two, after Whiteside misses two at the charity stripe. MPJ rims off on a much needed three and it's nervous time. Big Honey heads to the line with a chance to tie and his two are true! Sacramento calls a timeout to draw one up with 29 seconds to go in a tie game. PJ is in for MPJ in a defense/offense sub. Joker rebounds an errant, but wide open three by Halliburton and Denver calls a timeout to draw up a play off their own. Obviously you want Jokic taking this final shot. Instead he's called for a ticky-tack screening foul and the fix is clearly in. Sacramento has one shot with 2.6 seconds remaining or else we have bonus-suck. Hield loses the ball and bonus suck it is.
Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic:+49 as they are even at 112 at the end of regulation.
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Overtime: Alright fellas, no more fuckin' around! Just kidding, Jokic air balls a 10 footer by at least two feet. Not satisfied, he heaves a three and has the exact same result. Barnes scores and the Kings lead by two. Clearly feeling the irony, Jokic ties it up with the Sombor Shuffle on the baseline. Denver takes the lead on a layup by Barton, kept alive by 'Sap on the offensive glass. Whiteside fouls Jokic; it goes uncalled, and the ball flies out off of Jokic. It was not called by the refs but Sacramento wisely challenges and wins. Despicable! Shame on you for not correcting this loophole, NBA.
MPJ/Hield trade layups and the Nuggets lead by two at 1:20. Joker scores and the lead is four at 1:09. The officiating is CLEARLY benefiting the Kings tonight. MPJ, with a huge block on a three attempt and Denver has the ball with 13 seconds to go and a two point lead. Barton has a layup blocked, Barnes gets a quick layup on the other end and it's even-Steven with 6.5 remaining. Can we give the ball to Jokic this time? He's only the most clutch player in the league each of the past two seasons. He gets the ball stolen of course after a trademark gutter-trash OBP, including a no call on Barnes, and the Kings score on the other end... of course.
Denver is paced in TPM by Nikola Jokic:+51 as they lose a game they had no business losing, 122-124
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Final Thoughts:
- Harris, not Barton, belongs with the second unit, which is devoid of defense and too clunky with 4 ball-dependent liliputians out there.
- Malone needs to consider getting Bol or Nnaji into that second unit as well.
- The Nuggets appear to have been looking past Sacramento to the Clippers on X-Mas.
- I'm deeply concerned that Jamal strayed too far away from basketball in the short off season.
- Jokic appears to want the MVP that many are predicting for him this season. He finishes the night with a robust 3D of 29/15/14
- Fix your replay protocol NBA!
- It bothers me that Malone signaled out MPJ's D on a night where he came up huge defensively late and Barton/Morris/Murray couldn't defend the little sisters of the poor. Just stop already!
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We Suck Again!
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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™
A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:
As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.
Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.
I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.
While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.
Now I'm a 43 year old man who was born during the season in which the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.
I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times per year.
As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.
Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
