Now, hear me out. This is just my imagination running wild, and I know everything I'm about to say is a little nutty, but it is plausible. And for the conspiracy theorist out there it is down right believable.
A few things happened this week that left a lot of Nuggets fans scratching their heads. 1st, they picked up the 30 million dollar option on Paul Millsap. 2nd, they gave Jamal Murray an max extension a year or 2 before it was necessary. All the while being virtually silent this free agency period. No rumored offers, no rumored visits, no nothing.
At the same time, Kawhi Leonard is delaying making a decision on where he will play next year. This is really not good if you're the Lakers because he would need to sign a contract with them BEFORE the AD trade becomes official on July 6th. You would assume Kawhi knows this and yet he isn't saying anything.
Kawhi's camp has come out publicly and warned teams that if anything leaks on his contract situation that it would take them out of the running. So while most people believe the only teams in the running are the LA teams and Toronto, no one actually knows who he is negotiating with and HOW he is negotiating with them. I believe the reason for the delay is because a sign and trade is being discussed and that Denver is in the thick of it.
Think about it. This particular sign and trade would be more difficult than usual and could take longer because Toronto wants what they want, the team trading for Kawhi wants to hold on to what they want, and in this case Kawhi would want to be traded to a team that is going to be a contender and not gutted by the actual trade.
Enter Denver. If Kawhi were to want to play in Denver he couldn't just sign here out right. Denver wouldn't have the cap space. Even if they declined Millsap's 3rd year. And it would be more difficult than people make it seem to trade away salary without taking any back (.ie Barton and Plumlee). His only way here is through a trade and I'm sure he'd want assurances that Denver was serious about winning once he got here.
If you're Denver, the surest way to show Kawhi what your about is to lock up your young PG of the future, Murray. Don't even leave a possibility of him leaving in a year or 2. Yes, a max contract could be a stretch, but you are going all in on bring the best player in the league to your team. Who knows. With Leonard and Jokic playing with Murray he may grow into a player worth more than the current max.
Keeping Millsap is actually the no brainer. If you decline his option it only leaves you around $18 mil in cap space to find his replacement and we have all seen how crazy the spending has been so far. Denver was never going find anyone better than Millsap for less than $25 mil a year. Even if you did, their contract would be longer than 2 years making Murray's contract unaffordable in 2021.
The other thing to consider is the law of diminishing returns with the roster. Like it or not Denver is going to have to trade away some pieces this year if they don't want to loose them for nothing. If this FA period has shown me anything it's that next year Beasley WILL receive an offer north of $18 mil next year as an RFA. Plus you have to think about offers for Monte and Torrey next year as well. If you have to make a move to consolidate then why not make it a major one.
A trade consisting of Barton, Beasley, Hernangomez, Plumlee, and a couple of picks while in a vacuum isn't an even deal, but would be a haul for Toronto considering that the LA teams couldn't offer better and still be contenders. It keeps the core well intact for the next few years and leaves us with a strong bench.
Throw in the fact that as a young man Kawhi's favorite team was none other than Carmelo Anthony's Denver Nuggets and you have reason to let your imagination go wild! For the record I don't think Kawhi is coming here, but I do believe a sign and trade with someone is the reason his decision keeps getting delayed. Only time will tell.
