the game (for lack of a better term) results in a W for Detroit or not, it will undoubtedly affect the health, stamina and intestinal fortitude of the Nuggets on this four game Eastern swing.

As mentioned, the driving force of this Piston's unit (this sentence brought to you by the department of redundancy department) is the front-court tandem of Griffin & Drummond, who average a combined 42.8 points, 23.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.0 blocks & 1.2 steals. With Denver's back-court depleted by injury and Millsap likely to miss this one, the pressure will more than ever be on MVP candidate Big Honey Jokic to stay aggressive and take up slack from whomever else starts between Lyles & Plumlee, as clearly they will be on the losing end of their individual match-up, at least on paper.

Now here are some numbers you can use:

Detroit gives up 108.3 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 106.1

The Pistons average 105.5 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 111.9

This results in a net rating for Detroit of -2.8 and +5.8 for Denver

Detroit is 14-13 at home while Denver is 14-11 away from the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, the Pistons are 14-18 to the Nuggets 23-10 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved as the Western Conference is as much as ever, the stiffer competition.

Denver of course is 1st in the Western Conference standings while Detroit currently resides in 9th place in the Leastern Conference, 16 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
DET: RPG 45.4 APG 22.1 SPG 7.0 BPG 3.7 FG% 43.3 FT% 73.9 3% 34.3

DEN: RPG 46.6 APG 27.4 SPG 7.8 BPG 4.6 FG% 47.2 FT% 75.6 3% 35.7

The numbers on whole favor the Nuggets (first clean sweep since I introduced this section) but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, The Nuggets have won 16 of their last 20 & 8 of their last 10 while the Pistons have been victorious in 7 of their last 20 games & 4 of their last 10.

For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; was youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

With that said, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Millsap, Harris, Murray, I.T. and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Jokic doesn't match-up particularly well with either of the big men for Detroit defensively and the battle for board supremacy will be something to watch between the uber-active Drummond and Jokic on Detroit's offensive glass. Conversely, while a superior post defender, Drummond should have all sorts of problems facing an all-around point-Center like Nikola, as was the case when last they squared off.

Prediction: Denver (lap ) 105 - Detroit 99. Of absolutely zero consequence, I just discovered in my research that these Pistons are the tallest team by average height in the NBA, standing 199.1cm... so there's that.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Denver Nuggets - Roster

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting Intel as to when their services will be required. Murray is likely out with a badly twisted ankle. Harris is also out with recurring leg ailments. Millsap is questionable with a fresh ankle injury. WOW! That was short! As for Detroit, Zero... nada... zilch.

Re-up:

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Data:

TPM™ Game 53 DET

Nikola Jokic: +16

Paul Millsap: N/A

Will Barton: +2

Malik Beasley: +10

Monte Morris: -7

Mason Plumlee: +10

Torrey Craig: -6

Trey Lyles: +18

Juancho: +8

Brandon Goodwin: +7

Tyler Lydon: -1

Thomas Welsh: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: G-League

Gary Harris: Injured

Jamal Murray: Injured

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 51 games +1203

Paul Millsap: 43 games +361

Will Barton: 14 games +127

Malik Beasley: 53 games +412

Monte Morris: 53 games +648

Mason Plumlee: 53 games +416

Torrey Craig: 49 games +5

Trey Lyles: 50 games +292

Juancho: 50 games +11

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Tyler Lydon: 21 games -2

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

Jared Vanderbilt:1 games +3

Gary Harris: 32 games +448

Jamal Murray: 47 games +803

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +23.59

Paul Millsap: +8.40

Will Barton: +9.07

Malik Beasley: +7.77

Monte Morris: +12.23

Mason Plumlee: +7.85

Torrey Craig: +0.10

Trey Lyles: 5.84

Juancho: +0.22

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Tyler Lydon: -0.10

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Jared Vanderbilt: 3.00

Gary Harris: +14.00

Jamal Murray: +17.09

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 48:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 13th iteration of the starting five, consisting of Morris, Beasley, Barton, Millsap & Jokic, The Pistons counter with HOF (I think) musician Jackson Browne, Bullock (the balls on him) and the law firm of Griffin & Drummond. Rough start defensively for Barton but Denver still leads 9-7 at 8:45. Beasley is still en fuego, drilling his first two from downtown and the Nuggets lead by four at 8:15. Flops by both teams are being rightly disregarded and going unrewarded by the officials which is refreshing. Make that 3-3 from three for Beas as the good guys lead by seven at the time of the first break at 6:48. Craig is first off the pine at 5:15, up by two. Barton continues to be lit up defensively which is the primary reason Detroit is remaining in contact.

Lyles is in at 4:16 for Denver. The Pistons take a three point lead at 4:02 on the strength of a 10-0 run. It may be crucial for Lyles to back up his 19 point performance with another solid outing tonight given Millsap's absence and Plumlee's early ineffectiveness. Detroit is uncharacteristically hitting some of their threes tonight and they lead by four at 3:04. Jokic and Morris are first to reach double figures for the Nuggets. Malik earns his second foul at 2:37 and must check out. Juancho is in for the first time at this moment. Monte is keeping the Nuggets afloat as they retake the lead by two at 1:21, on the strength of an 8-3 run. Drummond earns his second foul and also exits. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +14 as they lead 36-34 after one.

Qtr2- Lydon is getting some early burn, necessarily so, to begin the second period. Detroit's bench is vastly outplaying their counterparts for Denver and they lead by eight at 9:31 on the strength of a 14-0 run. I'm afraid the starters, particularly Jokic may have to play big minutes tonight if Denver is to have a chance. Juancho/Lydon/Craig have all yet to score while being decidely negative defensively as is usually the case. Big Honey is back in to regulate at 8:40 after a brief rest that went haywire. Barton just can't get it going on either end. Blake has been very short-fused with the officials tonight. To his credit, Barton is wisely getting other players involved, given that his shot isn't true tonight. One area where Morris needs to work on defensively is in his defensive close-outs. He often gets sucked too far away from his man through head-turning, making it impossible for him to be a defensive threat at the arc, given his lack of height.

I'm confident he can improve upon his defensive awareness by simply using ball-man-basket peripheral vision. Millsap is an expert at it. Tap dat a... er resource. Denver's D seems to be picking up in execution following a timeout. Man, Drummond's flopping is straight up foul tonight. This one has the look of another of Marlowe's "orange slice" games, as Denver trails by nine at 3:46. The offense has gone stagnant for the Nuggets and this could get out of hand early if they aren't careful. Beasley is 3-3 from distance but 0-3 elsewhere. Blake is one of the first players to be rewarded for flopping. Barton FINALLY converts on an ugly lay-in that touches all iron edges; maybe that gets him off the snide. Jokic nabs his third foul on an &1 by Blake and he's replaced by Lyles with 36 seconds remaining, trailing now by 14. The biggest issue for the Nuggets is having no one who can remotely match up with Griffin defensively, since The Anchorman is out. Denver is led in TPM by Jokic +15 as they trail 55-68 at the half.

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Qtr3- The bench squad for Denver has to contribute in a substantial manner in the second half or it's a wrap. Lydon and Craig in particular have been invisible offensively, while sieves on the other end. Jokic gets his chance to flop a foul against Drummond and takes it; only slightly less egregious than Drummond's two previous attempts and he's finally rewarded nonetheless. Denver is exceptionally fumbly with the ball in the early-going as Detroit leads by 12. Barton makes and then immediately surrenders a three and the lead is back up to 15. Beasley is third to reach double figures for Denver. The Joker his trying his hand at defending Blake to no avail. Nikola earns his fourth foul of the ticky-tack variety and that may spell doom for Denver at 6:48, trailing by 17. Detroit has 43 PITP already. Someone for Denver needs to catch fire immediately.

I choose Beasley. Jokic simply looks exhausted tonight after their two tiring games previously vs Houston and Minnesota. Everyone does really but especially Nikola. This could be one long road trip. Lyles cuts it to 14 at 4:30. Plumlee and Trey are two Nuggets currently showing signs of life and they make five in double figures. Drummond is predictably killing it on the offensive glass here in the third period. The Pistons lead by 16 at 2:09. Drummond earns his fourth foul with 1:45 remaining. Jokic, surprisingly checks in with under a minute to play and four fouls, in a 17 point game. The entirely ineffective Torrey Craig gets hit with his fourth foul sending Zaza to the line with just 22 seconds to go. Lyles sticks a three at the buzzer, cutting it to 14. Denver is paced in TPM by Lyles +14 & Jokic +16 as they trail 83-97 after three.

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Qtr4- The Nuggets appear to be pressing early and the lead is quickly up to 20 at 10:38. A comeback at this time would be their biggest in team history, besting their comeback last week by one point. Detroit is not above allowing teams back into games as evidenced by their previous monstrosity. Plumlee has a 2D and is on 2D watch with 11-10-6. Big Honey has unusually slippery hands tonight; a sure sign of fatigue. He checks out at 10:02 and that could be it for him in this one. The lead is 23 at 8:23. It'll be difficult for the Nuggets to even field a recycling squad in this one. Who do they even have on the bench?

Seems to be just Lydon and Goodwin unless I'm missing something. Morris has 18 points but this has likely been his worst defensive outing as a pro, in his homecoming to Michigan. He's normally well above average defensively. Barton makes six in double figures but this game is a blowout, with Detroit leading by 29 at 6:15. The recycling due, in lieu of a full squad, of Lydon and Goodwin check in with a little over 4 minutes to go, down 27 and that's my time ladies and Gentlemen. Data only the rest of the way tonight. Denver is paced in TPM by Plumlee/Beasley +10, Jokic +16 Lyles +18 as they lose in extraordinary fashion, 129-103.

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Final Thoughts: Will the Nuggets EVER be SLIGHTLY healthy? Credit where due, Detroit played pretty flawlessly tonight to avenge their previous loss to the Clip Joint.

We Suck Again!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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