Miami: Known as the part time basketball home of one of the all-time greats...

... and also this stiff.

The band may NEVER be back together! Harris simply can't seem to shake his myriad season-long leg injuries. Additionally it appears that The Anchorman is Absent with an ankle ailment to go along with his still-broken right big toe, so Denver's elite depth will undoubtedly be tested this evening.

Nuggets vs Heat II: Time for some much needed home cookin'

When last these two teams squared off in game 39 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from six players led by Nikola Jokic: +46. Two players were in the red for that match-up, led by Juancho: -7 as the Nuggets narrowly defeated the vice squad in Miami, by a final score of 103-99.

In that contest, the Nuggets received a ho-hum 3D from Big Honey (29-11-10) which was one of eleven on the season (second in the league behind recidivist stat-stuffer Russell Westbrook.) Torrey Craig also enjoyed what was likely the best game of his short career with 11-16-4 (3-7 from distance) and was an absolute terror on the offensive glass, something he's all but abandoned in recent weeks.

As for this game, the Heat will be playing on the second night of a B2B, having barely lost to the NBA champion Warriors (since the double-dribble rule apparently doesn't apply to KD.) Miami's players will likely be drained by their excellent effort put forth last night which should conspire with the ACTUAL reason that Denver enjoys a home-court advantage on tail ends of B2B sets; DIA is located roughly in Kansas, to make this a tough one to win on the road for the Heat.

This means that their players should be hitting the sack at about 4 am while the Nuggets have been in town now for two full days without playing a game. The NBA allotted only three of these scenarios all season long for the first time ever (and this appears to be their plan going forward) to negate the "altitude advantage", without compensating Denver for the time zone isolation or the LACK OF ALTITUDE Denver must play in on the road (every action has an opposite and equal reaction... unless it's the NBA where collusion of human judgement is the rule rather than the exception. See also the officiating of perceived star players.)

Also you must take into account the fact that in the NBA, only Denver and Utah play just 43 times per season within their timezone, unlike the rest of their divisional opponents. Compare this also to the 53 games played within the pacific time zone as all teams not named Phoenix currently do annually, within the Pacific division. That's ten full games (an entire 12% of the season) in which they are not required to adjust their sleep pattern. Was the curtailment of B2B games culminating in a second game taking place in the Mile High City really necessary?

I'm endlessly baffled (as my readers will attest) by the seemingly arbitrary manner in which the NBA has penalized the Nuggets for playing at altitude. Many studies have proven that the elevation and dry air advantage that hitters have at Coors field translates to a decided, demonstrable disadvantage once the Rockies hit the road, especially for long road trips. Why then would the same not be true for basketball if altitude is the determining factor, as was stated by the league?

Denver DOES enjoy the best record in the NBA at home (23-4) but that is not uncommon for a very young/talented team, to be far better at home than on the road. See also the home/road splits for the Sixers 23-6 /13-14, The Celtics 22-8 /13-13 & the Blazers 23-8 / 10-14.

I said all of that to say this: Sorry Miami fans. You got uniquely boned by the schedule makers for this season. Top two teams in the West on B2B nights, losing an hour of sleep by traveling east one time zone? That's royally fucked, just not as fucked as the fact that Denver doesn't enjoy these scenarios as frequently as do all other teams in the league anymore.

Diatribe over.

Here are some numbers you can use:

Miami gives up 105.8 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 107.3

The Heat average 105.3 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 112.0

This results in a net rating for Miami of -0.5 and +4.7 for Denver

Miami is 14-13 on the road while Denver is 23-4 in the friendly confines of The Pepsi Can.

In terms of conference record, the Heat are 14-19 to the Nuggets 23-10 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved as the Western Conference has been as much as ever, the stiffer competition.

Denver of course is 2nd in the Western Conference standings, 3 games behind the Warriors while Miami currently resides in 9th place in the top-heavy Eastern Conference, 15.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)
MIA: RPG 46.6 APG 23.6 SPG 7.4 BPG 5.7 FG% 44.5 FT% 68.9 3% 35.0

DEN: RPG 46.2 APG 27.6 SPG 7.7 BPG 4.6 FG% 47.3 FT% 75.4 3% 35.5

The numbers on whole favor the Nuggets but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, The Nuggets have won 13 of their last 20 & 6 of their last 10 games, while the Heat have been victorious in 8 of their last 20 & 3 of their last 10.

For this young Nuggets group, (fourth youngest in the NBA; was youngest at the start of the season but tank-moves made by CHI/NY/PHO have rendered them younger, since) individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

Having said that, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Millsap, Harris, I.T. and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Richardson is coming off of one of his best games as a pro and with Harris/Millsap sidelined, the Nuggets have struggled mightily to defend both at the point of attack and in closing out at the arc. Fatigue will undoubtedly play a role but it will be up to Beasley and Morris in particular to do a better job of not getting sucked too far into the paint to make an effective close-out or to lose track of their assignments in rotating. They both had a bad road trip in terms of defensive head-turning.

Prediction: Denver (lap ) 117 - Miami 105. The Heat are a horrendous free-throw shooting team. They are an abysmal 68.9% from the charity stripe and with Ellington having been jettisoned to Detroit, ONLY JOSH RICHARDSON shoots above 80% from the line. Couple this matter with the fact that they will be on tired legs and it should only get worse. It'd be refreshing to see Denver win the freebie battle for a change and I predict they will do exactly that.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your ear-balls & eye-drums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Miami Heat - Roster

NO	Player	POS	HT	WT	DOB (AGE)	EXP	College
13	"Bam" Adebayo	C	6-10	255	7/18/1997 (21)	1	Kentucky
15	Ryan "Juancho" Anderson	PF	6-10	240	5/6/1988 (30)	10	California
7	Goran "The Dragon" Dragic	PG	6-3	190	5/6/1986 (32)	10	—
40	Udonis "Sp? #8" Haslem	PF	6-8	235	6/9/1980 (38)	15	Florida
16	James "Jonas Jerebko" Johnson	PF	6-8	240	2/20/1987 (31)	9	Wake Forest
5	Derrick "Bones" Jones Jr.	SF	6-7	200	2/15/1997 (21)	2	Nevada-Las Vegas
00	Yante "The Clever" Maten	PF	6-8	240	8/14/1996 (22)	R	Georgia
17	Rodney "Well, Shove A Celery Stalk In My Ass And Call Me" McGruder	SF	6-4	200	7/29/1991 (27)	2	Kansas State
9	Kelly "The Owl" Olynyk	PF	7-0	240	4/19/1991 (27)	5	Gonzaga
0	Josh "Pooh" Richardson	SG	6-6	200	9/15/1993 (25)	3	Tennessee
55	Duncan "The Admiral" Robinson	SF	6-8	210	4/22/1994 (24)	R	Williams; Michigan
3	Dwyane "Sp? #9" Wade	SG	6-4	220	1/17/1982 (37)	15	Marquette
11	Dion "20% Tip" Waiters	SG	6-4	215	12/10/1991 (27)	6	Syracuse
21	Hassan "Chop" Whiteside	C	7-0	265	6/13/1989 (29)	6	Marshall
20	Justise "Sp? #10" Winslow	SF	6-7	225	3/26/1996 (22)	3	Duke

Denver Nuggets - Roster

NO	Player	POS	HT	WT	DOB (AGE)	EXP	College
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	6-6	190	1/6/1991 (28)	6	Memphis
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	6-5	195	11/26/1996 (22)	2	Florida State
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	6-7	215	12/19/1990 (28)	1	South Carolina Upstate
6	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	6-2	180	10/2/1995 (23)	R	Central Florida; Florida Gulf
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	6-4	210	9/14/1994 (24)	4	Michigan State
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	6-9	230	9/28/1995 (23)	2	Espana
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	7-0	250	2/19/1995 (23)	3	Gotham
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	6-10	225	4/9/1996 (22)	1	Syracuse
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	6-10	234	11/5/1995 (23)	3	Kentucky
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	6-8	246	2/10/1985 (33)	12	Louisiana Tech
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	6-3	175	6/27/1995 (23)	1	Iowa State
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	6-4	207	2/23/1997 (21)	2	Kentucky
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	6-11	235	3/5/1990 (28)	5	Duke
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	6-10	210	6/29/1998 (20)	R	Missouri
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	5-9	185	2/7/1989 (29)	7	Washington
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	6-9	214	4/3/1999 (19)	R	Kentucky
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	7-0	255	2/3/1996 (23)	R	UCLA

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting Intel as to when their services will be required. Harris is also out with recurring leg ailments. Millsap is out with a broken toe as well as an ankle injury. Lydon is out with a concussion. Wow! That was short! As for the Heat, NO PLAYERS ARE INJURED!!! Seriously, fuck that! Having no injuries should be illegal!

Re-up: HBP is A-O-K... alright we all know that's a stretch but he is available off the bench tonight.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 56 MIA

Nikola Jokic: +17

Jamal Murray: +11

Monte Morris: +21

Paul Millsap: +10

Will Barton: +10

Mason Plumlee: +12

Malik Beasley: +25

Trey Lyles: -2

Juancho: -2

Torrey Craig: -8

Jared Vanderbilt: +0

Thomas Welsh: N/A

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Tyler Lydon: Injured

Gary Harris: Injured

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

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Total TPM™

Nikola Jokic: 55 games +1270

Jamal Murray: 50 games +860

Monte Morris: 56 games +684

Paul Millsap: 44 games +371

Will Barton: 17 games +144

Mason Plumlee: 56 games +466

Malik Beasley: 56 games +437

Trey Lyles: 54 games +308

Juancho: 54 games +17

Torrey Craig: 53 games -14

Jared Vanderbilt: 3 games +10

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

Brandon Goodwin: 16 games +28

Tyler Lydon: 21 games -2

Gary Harris: 32 games +448

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Nick Young: 3 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Nikola Jokic: +23.09

Jamal Murray: +17.20

Monte Morris: +12.21

Paul Millsap: +8.43

Will Barton: +8.47

Mason Plumlee: +8.32

Malik Beasley: +7.80

Trey Lyles: +5.70

Juancho: +0.31

Torrey Craig: -0.26

Jared Vanderbilt: +3.33

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

Brandon Goodwin: +1.75

Tyler Lydon: -0.10

Gary Harris: +14.00

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Nick Young: -0.67

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 55:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 13th iteration of the starting five, consisting of Murray, Beasley, Barton, Plumlee & Jokic, The Heat counter with Richardson, Waiters, Winslow, Olynyk & Whiteside. B2B steals by Olynyk and Denver is looking unforgivably sluggish from jump street. Flop of the century by Richardson on a screen goes rightly unrewarded. The Nuggets tie it up on a Beasley three at 8:50. "Ugly basketball, played to perfection" says Fat Lever or as Big Honey might deadpan "Poetry in motion" says Marlowe. The Nuggets lead by two at the time of the first break at 5:27.

Craig and a headband-less Anchorman are in along with Morris after the break. Jokic gets his first spell at 2:42, up one. 'Sap nails his first three of the night and the lead is four with 2:02 remaining. There is no denying how much better this team functions defensively with the mere presence of Paul on the court. Morris is "showing the full Monte" sayeth the perpetually cheeky Marlowe. Morris is en fuego vs the heat tonight and he stretches the lead to eight on a traditional three point play. 13 first quarter points for Morris as he's the first to enter double digits for the good guys. Denver is paced in TPM by Morris +14 as they lead 35-27 after one.

Qtr2- Lyles is out there to open the second period. I'm eating Jelly-Belly rejects. Ever had 'em? It's all the irregular shapes or beans stuck together, combined with gag flavors such as dirt. One I just tasted had to have been thanksgiving dinner and it was oddly satisfying. Monte Morris is a perfect 6-6 from the floor and has already scored 16 (his career high is just 21) as Denver leads by six at 9:15. Jokic has simply not had his "jumper" lately and he must rediscover it. Craig is getting worked-over on defense as per always and the lead is down to one again with 7:42 remaining. The Nuggets have to find a way to feed Big Honey in the post as he has no confidence in his outside stroke. Morris finally misses for the first time at 6:30. Miami retakes the lead on two free throws by Winslow soon after. The Joker nails a three so what the fuck do I know? He's the second Nugget's player to reach double digits.

Olynyk pokes Jokic in the eye on a play that SHOULD earn an intentional foul on reputation alone. It does not. Jamal Murray party of one, your table is ready. Please join us any time. He and Lyles are the only Nuggets to play who have yet to score tonight. Jokic has but one assist and in fact no Denver players have more than three in this ugly, disjointed affair. Beasley nabs his third foul and must take a seat with 2:40 remaining. Nikola gives Denver the lead at 2:02 from the charity stripe. Another three for Jokic and the lead is four with 1:15 to go. The bank is open and Jokic withdraws another three to close the quarter on a run of Big Honey eight / Miami zero. Barton/Lyles/Murray/Craig have combined for just four points. Jokic/Morris have combined for 34. Denver is led in TPM by Jokic +17 & Morris +20 as they lead 54-49 at the half.

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Qtr3- It's Whiteside vs Beasley in terms of early second half scoring and the Nuggets lead by four at the nine minute mark. Plumlee rejects Whiteside on consecutive plays down low. Beasley earns his fourth foul but remains in at 7:52, with a two point lead. Check that, Morris comes in for him after one free throw attempt by Waiters. Denver still has no players with more than three assists and the aforementioned foursome have combined for just four points still as well at 7:40 but Denver somehow leads by six. Murray finally sticks one from downtown at 7:10 as the Nuggets take their largest lead of nine points. Plumlee makes three in double digits for Denver. Barton hits a three of his own and the lead is 12. That's more like it starters!

Murray/Barton with another three each and the lead is 18 on the strength of a 16-0 run for the Nuggets. Kelly Olynyk just strikes me as kind of a punk. I think all men named Kelly must be, dating way back to The Bad-News Bears. McGruder finally scores for the Heat to stem the tide as Miami appears to be running out of steam, predictably so as illustrated in the pre-game portion of TPM. Jokic also appears to be gassed as he turns it over on two straight plays and the Heat are on a 6-0 run of their own, cutting it to 12. Jokic has a 2D with 23-10-2 and a full period with which to operate (that he'll likely witness from the bench.) Denver is paced in TPM by Beasley +11, Millsap +12, Barton +13, Plumlee + 15, Jokic +17 & Morris +21 as they lead 83-70 after three.

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Qtr4- The Joker is actually out there to begin the fourth. Beasley scores the first five points of the period and the Nuggets lead by 18 with 10:45 to play. Malik makes five in double digits for Denver. Millsap has had a very good return-game with 7-7 in 15 minutes of action and has made a palpable difference in defensive rotations. His defensive quarterbacking if you will, has been exactly what the Nuggets have missed during this three game skid. Nikola has five turnovers on the night. Denver is up by 18 with 7:30 to go, following another three by Beasley.

Malik has scored all 11 of the Nuggets fourth quarter points! The Blue Arrow is no marksman on this cold winter evening in the Mile High City, as he's just 2-11 from the floor. Denver leads by 16 with 4:49 to play. This has been such a weird, herky-jerky game which I suppose is to be expected given the road-weariness of both clubs. Murray makes five in double digits and Denver leads by 17 with 2:30 remaining. Vanderbilt checks in along with Juancho at this moment and it's officially recycling time. Denver is paced in TPM by Millsap/Barton +10, Murray +11, Plumlee + 12, Jokic +17, Morris +21 & Beasley +25 as they win by a final score of 103-87.

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The Nuggets Win!

Final Thoughts: I'm glad to have that three game slide in the rear-view mirror where it belongs. I'm going to go ahead and call a seven game win streak right now. You heard it here first. They may need it too because the schedule gets brutal after that. I really wish that the young players such as Beasley and Morris could take their shooting with them on the road but it's entirely common for the whipper-snappers to shoot far better in front of the home crowd's enthusiastic rooting. No time for scoreboard watching; it's that time of the season in which the teams you expect/don't want to win always seem to and Denver must follow suit if they care to make the leap from lottery team to anything but first round knock out.

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For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 42 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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