The NBA season is already underway and small sample size theater is rapidly filling up my phone's podcast player. In other words, it's a touch late to be posting predictions for a season that is no longer "upcoming". Doc Brown would almost certainly take offense...
In my defense, I originally wrote this preview on 10/21 for Reddit. And I've refrained from altering my projections based of the opening nights of the opening season (as seen by the fact that I still have the Warriors listed as a playoff team). Because if there is anything I've taken away from being a part of the Denver Stiffs community over the years, it's that hot takes usually age poorly... unless you are a talking head on cable television in which case they pay exceptionally well.
Anyways, the Western Conference is utterly stacked this year. That's been a reality for my entire adult life. What's different about the 2019/20 iteration of the West is that there are 6 teams who should feel like they have a legitimate chance to come out of the conference. After years of complaining about the staleness of the Warriors dynasty, NBA fans should be celebrating. The 2019/2020 championship belt is wide open for the taking...
TIER 1: (The Playoff Locks)
1) Los Angeles Clippers:
They might finish as low as the 4 seed. George is missing at least the first month of the season and Kawhi will likely be load managed. They are also missing a center that is capable of defending the elite 5’s of the NBA. That said, this is virtually the same team that obtained the 8 seed and then sniped a couple of victories away from the Warriors in round 1 of the 2019 playoffs.
Landry Shamet and Lou Williams will provide a lethal scoring punch from the perimeter to go with Kawhi and George’s elite two-way play. JaMychal Green, Montrezl Herrell and Partick Bererley are all willing to put in the unglamorous dirty work that contributes to winning basketball. This might be the deepest team in the NBA which makes me think they can fight for the 1 seed even if George is out until December. And should their stars be healthy come playoff time, they should be the easy favorite to win it all.
2) Denver Nuggets:
The Nuggets were the youngest 2 seed in the history of the NBA last season. The same youthfulness that hindered them in the playoffs provides ample avenues for improvement in the 2019/20 season. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley and Monte Morris are all a year closer to their prime. Gary Harris and Will Barton both struggled through serious injuries last season that clearly effected their efficiency, 3 point shot and confidence. A return to their previous form would instantly make the Nuggets a substantially better team. Offseason acquisition Jerami Grant provides badly needed rim protection and switchability while ensuring the Nuggets aren’t overly reliant on the aging (but still effective) Paul Milsap.
Nikola Jokic proved that he is one of the 10 best players in the NBA during the Nuggets' playoff run- his averages of 25/13/8.5 were historic in nature- and if the Clippers aren’t the deepest team in the NBA than the Nuggets are. That said, there are still serious questions that the Nuggets must answer in order to be a true contender. Can the electric but often erratic Jamal Murray become a more consistent player and cement himself as a true #2 option alongside Jokic? Will their lack of a clear starting level player at SF result in serious struggles against teams like the Clippers and Lakers? Can Michael Porter Jr. (who was in the conversation for the #1 overall pick in 2018 before a back injury caused him to plummet to the end of the lottery) make a positive impact as a rookie? These are the things that will determine how far Denver can go in the post-season… but regular season success is almost a given.
3) Utah Jazz:
The Jazz formula during the Rudy Gobert era has involved combining an elite defense with a clunky offense that is short on shooting and playmaking. It’s a situation that has left shooting guard Donovan Mitchell overburdened and inefficient even as he has flashed superstar level talent during his first two seasons in the NBA. Enter Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic’.
Mike Conley might be the most underrated player of the past decade. It’s legitimately criminal that the veteran point guard has yet to make an NBA all-star game. He might not be the all-NBA level defender that he once was, but he’s still capable of shutting an opposing guard down. The subtraction of Rubio from the court combined with the addition of Conley and a 40% 3 point shooter in Bogdanovic will provide floor spacing that has been non-existent in past seasons. Mitchell will be free to cut around screens and spot up while defenders scramble to close out: his efficiency should sky rocket.
On the other hand, the Jazz are going to be undersized at nearly every position. Their defense will have more holes for Gobert to cover than ever before. The league’s most impactful defender should be capable of picking up the slack, but it may take awhile for the Jazz to figure out how to play together. More importantly, the Jazz bench is rather mediocre. Jeff Green, Ed Davis and Royce O’ Neal are solid but unspectacular. None of the three is a reliable shot maker. Which leaves former lottery pick Emanuel Mudiay as a key wild card- particularly should the injury-prone Conley miss any time. I'm giving them the nod over Houston due to their lethal home court advantage, but that's presuming their key guys stay healthy.
4) Houston Rockets:
I hate the fit of the Westbook and Harden tandem come playoff time. Or at the end of close games when Westbrook is almost certain to steal shots from Harden while bricking a large chunk of them. Houston’s stars make for the most usage heavy duo of recent memory, and Westbrook’s lack of effort off-ball (and clunky 3 point shot) are well documented. But I also can’t bring myself to question Harden or D’ Antoni.
Westbrook and Harden will both work hard to accommodate their games because they truly want to make it work. I also think Westbrook will benefit from the newfound spacing he will enjoy while playing within Houston’s 3 point heavy offense. Clint Cappella and Eric Gordon are both elite glue guys in their prime, and Daryl Morey has a track record of filling out the outer edges of his roster with capable players. They just better hope that PJ Tucker stays healthy because their big man depth is abysmal.
5) Los Angles Lakers:
Last year the many Lakers fans in my life shit all over me for predicting they would be a 6 seed. Such predictions were based off the fact that GM Rob Pelinka had filled the roster with players who were a) past their prime and b) a questionable fit alongside Lebron. This year, the question is whether there is enough depth to survive any time that Lebron or AD may miss. I actually think that this team should be the favorite to play the Clippers in the Western Conference Finals. The AD / Lebron pick and roll will be borderline unstoppable come playoff time. Teams like Utah and Denver are simply unequipped to stop it.
Yet as underrated as Danny Green is by casual fans, Kuzma is as equally overrated rated. Kyle is going to have to shoot way better than 30% from 3 this season in order to compensate for his piss-poor defense or the fact that he is one of the worst passing forwards in the NBA. Other than Danny and the star duo, this roster is comprised of players who are past their prime (Dwight, Rondo, Bradley) or who are one-way by nature (Kuzma, Cook, Caruso). It adds up to a team who will be lethal in the playoffs (when a team’s bench becomes less important), but may struggle to rack up wins on the nights that their star players are at less than 100%
6) Portland Trailblazers:
It feels disrespectful to have Portland this low after their improbable run to the Western Conference Finals during last years playoffs. CJ and Dame might be the best backcourt duo in the NBA considering Klay Thompson will be rehabbing a torn ACL until at least mid-March. This is a team that has repeatedly overcome its doubters over the past decade... The questions for this iteration of the Blazers revolve around who exactly is going to play defense while the team awaits center Jusuf Nurkic’s return from a serious leg injury.
GM Neal Olshey brought in the enigmatic Hassan Whiteside to serve as the intern replacement, but he is a player who is known more for his temper-tantrums and stat padding than his defensive presence. Meanwhile, the two players most responsible for Portland’s wing defense over recent seasons (Harkless, Aminu) both left during free agency in what feels like a gamble related to upside. The offensive limitations of Aminu and Harkless had repeatedly proven to be a liability come playoff time and so Olshey decided to open up time for young players like Zach Collins and Anfernee Simons. He also added under achieving wings like Heronja and Bazermore with the hope that the Blazers top-notch coaching staff and a change of scenery could help those players find themselves. It adds up to a roster with a crazy amount of volatility in its potential outcomes despite a history of consistency.
TIER II: (The Playoff Hopefuls)
7) Golden State Warriors:
This is not your 70 win 2015-16 Golden State Warriors. Stephen Curry is still in the conversation for the best player in the NBA and Draymond Green is still a defensive force when he is in shape and actually trying, but that’s about all that remains the same. Gone are key bench players like Iggy and Livingston. Gone are former starters (and defensive contributors) Bogut and Barnes. And while D’ Angelo Russell should help replicate the injured Klay Thompson on the offensive end, he will only add to their defensive woes. Looney is a plus player and perhaps Cauley-Stein can be salvaged by Steve Kerr, but that still leaves the Warriors leaning on a stable of players with a track record of being net negatives. Curry is going ball out in an attempt to cement his legacy and shut up his haters, but any chance at serving as a playoff wild card will require that Curry not miss any time with injuries (while keeping his fingers crossed that Klay is at full speed upon his return).
8) San Antonio Spurs:
Aldridge and Derozan are both on the wrong side of 30, the Spurs are overly reliant on the inefficiencies of the mid-range game, (to Pop's great annoyance) the team lost 3 point sharper shooter Davis Bertans to the Wizards... I understand there are question marks. Yet Popovich is the Bill Belichick of the NBA. He knows how to maximize the strengths of a roster while minimizing its weaknesses.
The Spurs should also benefit from the return of Dejounte Murry from an ACL tear. The lengthy PG is a defensive stalwart and was poised for a breakout season before suffering an unfortunate knee injury prior to start of last season. Derick White should continue building off a post-season performance that caught a lot of eyes, and I expect Lonnie Walker to prove capable of contributing to winning basketball while flashing serious long-term upside. The sum of those parts should be enough to land the Spurs back in the playoffs.
9) Sacramento Kings: I think they will continue building on last season. Hield and Barnes are both quality starters and Marvin Bagley surprised me with his play last season. The Kings late season nose-dive coincided directly with Bagley's unfortunate injury. Last year's experiences should mean the Kings are less susceptible to blown 4th quarter leads (which were a habitual problem). But Fox is the key to their ceiling. If he takes another step towards stardom, this team is capable of winning 46 games and stealing the a playoff spot. They'll be feisty either way.
TIER III (If It All Goes Right, You Could Be an 8 Seed):
10) Dallas Mavericks: Luka and Kristoff make for an interesting and hyper-talented duo. The problem is that their 3rd best player is arguably Seth Curry. Well, that and the fact that Portzingis is an injury prone 7’ 3" perimeter player who will be playing basketball for the first time in over a year and a half.
11) New Orleans Pelicans:
If Zion were healthy, this team would be listed at #9. Their roster is loaded with young talent (Lonzo, Ingram, Alexander-Walker) and solid veterans (Reddick, Favors). Jrue Holiday is wildly underrated and one of the league’s best two-way players. They will be defensively competent and Zion looked like a Shaq / Barkley hybrid during the pre-season. He also just tore his meniscus and will now be missing the first 25 or so games of the season. The Pelicans would be wise to take their time with his return and utilize that time getting their franchise cornerstone to shed some weight. Which means the playoffs may quickly become an after-thought.
12) Minnesota Timberwolves:
Towns must really wish that Wiggins was never signed to that max contract. Karl is going to be an offensive juggernaut but the talent around him is lacking or too young and raw to be relied upon. I’d put my money on the team trading Robert Covington or Jeff Teague and tanking should they get they right offer.
13) Oklahoma City Thunder:
Should they keep their roster as is, this team could finish as high as the 9 seed-- especially now that New Orleans will be without Zion for an extended period of time. And perhaps chasing the playoffs with a team comprised of solid veterans (Gallo, CP3, Adams) and uber talented sophomore Shai Gilgeous-Alexander proves the way to go. OKC is one of the NBA’s smallest markets, and I won't pretend to know whether the franchise has the stomach for an extended rebuild.
That said, Gallo and Adams are liable to fetch a solid return for a contender that wants to find its Marc Gasol and tip the balance of power among the NBA’s elite. I’m also not sure how long Chris Paul will be willing to toil in mediocrity should either of those players get traded (or in the case of Gallo, hurt). Expect the Thunder to be very competitive in the early portion of the season before transitioning to a blatant tank when the new year flips.
TIER IV (The Tank Commanders):
14) Phoenix Suns:
The Phoenix Suns are the only team in the NBA capable of challenging the New York Knicks in their incompetence. Management goes through coaching staffs faster than ABC pumps out new episodes of The Bachelor. The organization has utterly failed at nurturing blue-chip prospects and developing them into winning players. Rubio, Oubre, Saric and Baynes are solid pickups in a vacuum. Ayton and Booker could make for a potent offensive tandem in theory. But the reality is that the Suns should be treated as the anti-Spurs. Failure should be the expectation until proven otherwise.
15) Memphis Grizzlies:
Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant have the makings of one of the NBA’s best young cores. Hell, Ja might be the favorite for RoTY now that Zion is missing a third of the season. But the West is brutal, the rest of the roster bare (with apologies to Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones), and the kids have a long way to go before their talents are actualized into wins. They will be fun to watch in bursts while fighting for the worst record in the NBA.
WHO WINS THE WEST: Clippers over Nuggets (based off these seedings), but with Clippers over Lakers as the most likely outcome (because the Nuggets would lose to either team if on that side of the bracket).
WHY ARE YOU IGNORING THE EAST: I could say that years of living in Colorado and California has turned me into a West "Coast" elitist (and that might be true). I could blame the fact that everyone knows that the outcome of this conference (a Sixers, Bucks Eastern Conference Finals) is pre-determined. But the reality is that I simply don't know the rosters of Eastern teams to talk about them in depth.
FINALS PREDICTION: Clippers over Sixers.
