Bumble Bros

Glad to see Gallo healthy again.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton.

Nuggets vs Clippers III: Toby and Bobi vs The Blue Arrow and Big Honey.

When last these two teams squared off in game 31 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players led by Jamal Murray: +16 (I must mention that Big Tom was second at +15 that afternoon.) Five players were in the red for that match-up led by Torrey Craig: -9 as Denver suffered their only true blow-out defeat on the season, by a final score of 132-111 in Los Angeles. The Clippers crushed the Nuggets on the boards and from beyond the arc that day (one of two 3 pm Saturday starts thus-far) and the Nuggets had the appearance of a team that overindulged in the Hollywood nightlife the previous evening.

LA was led by the all around contributions of Gallo/Harris and as always, Harrell gave Jokic fits on the low block. The exceedingly depleted Nuggets squad (at the time) was exploited by the uniquely deep Clippers squad who basically imposed their will through relentless effort on both ends. Denver is still not 100% (Harris and Barton are still out, as are Isaiah Thomas, Michael Porter Jr and Jared Vanderbilt) but having Millsap back should mitigate a large portion of the easy looks that the front-court for LA had available to them in the last contest.

As for this game, these teams are very similar in that they are both playing well above expectations and they both can now be accurately labeled as VERY good teams as we near the halfway point of the season. Also they both despise the Lakers and especially their fan-base. The series is even at one win a piece and with both teams jockeying for playoff position, this is obviously a big one.

Here are some numbers you can use:

LA gives up 114.1 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 105.5

The Clippers average 116.0 ppg offensively to the Nuggets 110.5

This results in a net rating for LA of +1.8 and +4.9 for Denver.

LA is 10-10 on the road while Denver is 16-3 at home

In terms of conference record The Clippers are 17-11 to the Nuggets 16-7 mark

Denver is also the only team in the league that is undefeated (5-0) within their division which means next to nothing aside from using it as a barometer in the strength of competition level

Denver of course leads the Western Conference standings while LA currently resides in 4th place, just 3.5 games out

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)

LAC: RPG 45.9 APG 22.8 SPG 6.28 BPG 4.88 FG% .475 FT% .806 3% .385

DEN: RPG 47.1 APG 27.3 SPG 8.15 BPG 4.67 FG% .464 FT% .749 3% .350

The numbers on whole are very even with Denver getting the better of the counting stats (by a deceptively large margin due to the far fewer possessions per game as a result of a much slower pace) and the Clippers are amongst the leagues elite in all areas of shooting (especially from the charity stripe) but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone. To that end, Denver has won 10 of their last 13 while LA has won 7 of their last ten, on the heels of a four game loosing streak but are victorious in their last three straight.

The usual suspects, Gallo, Harris, Lou Williams and Harrell are all four coming off of excellent games vs the Hornets and while the other three have been slightly up and down over the course of their winning streak, Harris has been the best player (arguably) in all four. Clearly he is the steadying influence and the heart & soul of this Clippers group.

For Denver, individual consistency is simply not a thing for this squad so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

With that said, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Barton, I.T. and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, while Jokic is a problem for any defender, so is the case to a lesser but still substantial degree for Harrell and he seems to never have a bad outing vs the Nuggets. The same can be said for Boban who seemingly ONLY dominates against Denver and his close friend Nikola. The Clippers play at a far faster pace than do the the Nuggets so the net rating and in fact most statistics of comparison are misleading; the Clippers are likely the better defensive squad and Denver is likely the better team offensively though most metrics would lead you to opposite conclusions.

Prediction: Denver 117 (lap) - Clippers 113. This is a tough one to call as these teams are so evenly matched and both playing very well. Ultimately home cookin' makes it hard to pick against Denver, as they currently have a 12 game home winning streak in tact. Jokic records his 21st career 3D (5th of the season) and Murray has a sizzling first quarter to offset hot shooting from beyond the arc by Gallo and a late charge by Lou Williams. Now that's how you snap a limb in half and tumble to your prediction-game demise.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

LA Clippers Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
21	Patrick "The Gatekeeper" Beverley	PG	30	6' 1"	185 lbs	Arkansas	$5,027,028
11	"Savory" Avery Bradley	SG	27	6' 2"	180 lbs	Texas	$12,000,000
31	Angel "El Diablo" Delgado	C	23	6' 10"	245 lbs	Seton Hall	G-Money
8	Danilo "Gallo" Gallinari	SF	30	6' 10"	225 lbs	Viva Italia	$21,587,579
2	"Gregarious, Yet Shy" Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	PG	20	6' 6"	181 lbs	Kentucky	$3,375,360
13	Marcin "Marcin, Marcin" Gortat	C	34	6' 11"	240 lbs	Mars	$13,565,218
5	Montrezl "The Silent L-Sassin" Harrell	PF	24	6' 8"	240 lbs	Louisville	$6,000,000
34	Tobias "Never-Nude" Harris	SF	26	6' 9"	235 lbs	Tennessee	$14,800,000
51	Boban "Todd" Marjanovic	C	30	7' 3"	290 lbs	Lilliput	$7,000,000
12	Luc Mbah a Moute "She's Ma' Babay"	PF	31	6' 8"	230 lbs	UCLA	$4,320,500
15	Johnathan "Ozo" Motley	PF	23	6' 10"	230 lbs	Baylor	G-Money
10	"Mama Don't Take My Kodachrome" Jerome Robinson	SG	21	6' 5"	190 lbs	Boston College	$3,046,200
30	Mike "That's What She Said" Scott	PF	30	6' 8"	237 lbs	Virginia	$4,320,500
4	Milos "The Foreman" Teodosic	PG	31	6' 5"	196 lbs	Cyrillja	$6,300,000
0	"Bob Sagat Presents: The Aristocrat" Sindarius Thornwell	SG	23	6' 5"	215 lbs	South Carolina	$1,378,242
9	Tyrone "Marcellus" Wallace	SG	24	6' 5"	198 lbs	California	$1,349,383
23	"Free Throwin" Lou Williams	SG	31	6' 1"	175 lbs	Parts Unknown	$8,000,000

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Barton had successful surgery on his abductor/hip and is week to week (whatever that means.) Harris is a game time decision with an achy hammy. As for the Clippers, Luc Mbah a Moute is out with a knee injury

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Data:

TPM™ Game 40 LAC

Jamal Murray: +14

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Monte Morris: +21

Brandon Goodwin: +2

Gary Harris: N/A

Malik Beasley: +17

Torrey Craig: +8

Will Barton: Injured

Juancho Hernangomez: +6

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: +5

Trey Lyles: -7

Tyler Lydon: +3

Nikola Jokic: +23

Mason Plumlee: +25

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 40 games +704

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 40 games +472

Brandon Goodwin: 8 games +17

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 25 games +384

Malik Beasley: 40 games +244

Torrey Craig: 36 games +33

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 39 games +20

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 32 games +310

Trey Lyles: 39 games +210

Tyler Lydon: 13 games +11

Nikola Jokic: 40 games +863

Mason Plumlee: 40 games +304

Thomas Welsh: 8 games +17

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.60

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +11.80

Brandon Goodwin: +2.13

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +15.36

Malik Beasley: +6.10

Torrey Craig: +0.92

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.51

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.69

Trey Lyles: 5.38

Tyler Lydon: +0.85

Nikola Jokic: +21.58

Mason Plumlee: +7.60

Thomas Welsh: +2.13

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 39:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets again go with their 8th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Beasley, Craig, Millsap & Jokic. The Clippers counter with Alexander, Bradley, Harris, Gallo & Gortat. Full disclosure, I fell in to the trappings of not having to do this from the last game and had been only tracking data for the first several minutes but I'm here now as Denver leads 15-10 and all five starters seem to be well-involved. Beasley in particular seems to be relishing his starting assignment but Denver is allowing far to many (any amount) of wide open threes to this deadly shooting Clippers squad. Denver leads by nine on the strength of a 12-3 run at 5:45.

Gallo has the last nine points, six points of which were conversions from beyond the arc, for LA. Malik is first in double figures with 11 at 4:13 and an 11 point lead. Juancho is surprisingly first off the bench for the Nuggets, along with Morris. Jokic earns his second ticky-tack foul and checks out at 3:14, replaced by Mason. Denver seems to be firing on all cylinders but lets see how things play out with the dangerous Clippers bench filtering in. Kareem Abdul-Jabar was apparently a decent NBA player deadpans Marlowe. The Nuggets bench, primarily Mason, are holding serve nicely. Denver is paced in TPM by Beasley +11 & Jokic +13 as they lead 37-25 after one.

Qtr2- The Bench squads for both teams are predictably playing very good ball as Denver leads by 12 at 10:03. Lyles is the one player for Denver who is failing to contribute. If the bench for Denver can neutralize that of LA the Nuggets win tonight. Thus far that's been the case (despite Lou's best efforts) led by Plumlee and Morris. Lyles continues to be a massive minus and Denver leads by eleven, just to illustrate how well the rest have played, leading by 15 at 6:11. LA cuts it to eight as starters for both teams filter in at 5:10. LA has a lot of likable guys; Imma have to start catching some of their games on rare nights off. My prediction game looks to be on point BTW. Murray is hot, Gallo is hitting from downtown and Lou is driving their offense.

LA's starters are now getting the better of Denver's and they cut it to seven at 2:20. 'Sap is a step slow tonight defensively and the lead is down to five with under two minutes to play. LA is on an 18-7 run. The Jokic - Murray backdoor is starting to remind me of the Anre Miller lob if that's any sort of analogy. Also reminds me of Anre sneaking backdoor in the post for one bucket a night in a very different way (usually on a pass form Camby.) Murray makes two in double figures for the good guys. Jokic. with his third minor foul and he should have been on the bench to begin with to protect himself from just that. Craig/Plumlee make four in double digits. Denver is paced in TPM by Morris +12, Morris/Jokic +13, Plumlee +14 & Beasley +15 as they lead 65-54 at the half.

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Qtr3- Christ on a crutch! My half-time dog-walk ran long as she seemed to need to smell every item even more than usual so forgive me as I slack-ass the 3rd period analysis as a means to hopefully be there in the 4th, if I can catch up in time. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +14, Morris +15, Beasley +17, Jokic +18 & Plumlee +23 as they lead 93-76 after three.

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Qtr4- Apologies but I never quite recovered in time. I WILL attempt to make up for it in my final thoughts. Please accept my apology as this is seemingly the week that my sizable online presence has been uncooperative in just about every avenue possible. Glitches and hassles abound. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +14, Morris +21, Beasley +17, Jokic +23 & Plumlee +25 as they avenge the previous blowout, by a final score of 121-100.
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Final Thoughts:

The MVP chants are getting louder and deservedly so.

"One huge step for Nuggets-Kind" -Marlowe.

PLUMLEE!

I'm happy with this starting five until Harris/Barton return. Beasley cures a lot of ailments that an injured Juancho causes in terms of speed and athleticism.

Good to see Lyles rebound (figuratively) a bit in the second half.

Another ho-hum 3D for Big Honey.

I'm pretty proud of my pre-game predictions. Every single one of them rang true (save the score) and that was quite a few promises to keep. Not to suck my own dick TOO hard but my pre-game prediction went like this:

Prediction: Denver 117 (lap) - Clippers 113. This is a tough one to call as these teams are so evenly matched and both playing very well. Ultimately home cookin' makes it hard to pick against Denver, as they currently have a 12 game home winning streak in tact. Jokic records his 21st career 3D (5th of the season) and Murray has a sizzling first quarter to offset hot shooting from beyond the arc by Gallo and a late charge by Lou Williams. Now that's how you snap a limb in half and tumble to your prediction-game demise.

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The Nuggets Win!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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