Miami. Known as the part time basketball home of one of the all-time greats...

...and this stiff.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton.

Nuggets vs Miami: I'll almost be impressed if the South Beach night-life plays a role tonight.

No analysis for this one. My schedule has become supremely demanding just as the Nuggets has. No bueno. Analysis will return for Thursday's game. All apologies for the eyesore of a template that is left for the next one, in absence of analysis tonight. Please feel free to skip past the stricken template, down to the data after the game as that is really the only value in today's piece unless I have time for a final thought.

When last these two teams squared off in game of season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from players led by . was in the red for that match-up as Denver by a final score of

As for this game,

Here are some numbers you can use:

gives up 109.0 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 105.2.

The average 110.3 ppg offensively to the Nuggets 110.6.

This results in a net rating for of +1.3 and +5.4 for Denver.

is 13-5 at home while Denver is 10-8 on the road.

In terms of conference record the are to the Nuggets 16-6 mark.

Denver is also the only team in the league that is undefeated (5-0) within their division which means next to nothing aside from using it as a barometer in the strength of competition level.

Denver of course leads the Western Conference standings while currently resides in place, games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)

: RPG APG SPG BPG FG% FT% 3% .

DEN: RPG 47.1 APG 27.2 SPG 8.35 BPG 4.78 FG% 46.3 FT% .747 3% .35

The numbers on whole favor but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone. To that end,

For Denver, individual consistency is simply not a thing for this squad so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/defined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example,

Prediction: Denver (lap) -

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Miami Heat Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
13	"Bam" Adebayo	C	21	6' 10"	255 lbs	Kentucky	$2,955,840
7	Goran "The Dragon" Dragic	PG	32	6' 3"	190 lbs	Yugoslavia	$18,109,175
2	Wayne "Duke" Ellington	SG	31	6' 5"	200 lbs	North Carolina	$6,270,000
40	Udonis "Sp? #8" Haslem	PF	38	6' 8"	235 lbs	Florida	$1,512,601
16	James "Jonas Jerebko" Johnson	PF	31	6' 8"	240 lbs	Wake Forest	$14,651,700
8	Tyler "James" Johnson (Confusing Right?)	SG	26	6' 4"	190 lbs	Fresno State	$19,245,370
5	Derrick "Bones" Jones Jr.	SF	21	6' 7"	200 lbs	UNLV	$1,512,601
00	Yante "The Clever" Maten	PF	22	6' 8"	240 lbs	Georgia	G-Money
17	Rodney McGruder	SF	27	6' 4"	200 lbs	Kansas State	$1,544,951
9	Kelly "The Owl" Olynyk	PF	27	7' 0"	240 lbs	Gonzaga	$12,537,527
0	Josh "Pooh" Richardson	SG	25	6' 6"	200 lbs	Tennessee	$9,367,200
55	Duncan "The Admiral" Robinson	SF	24	6' 8"	210 lbs	Michigan	G-Money
3	Dwyane "Sp? #9" Wade	SG	36	6' 4"	220 lbs	Marquette	$1,512,601
11	Dion "20% Tip" Waiters	SG	27	6' 4"	215 lbs	Syracuse	$11,550,000
21	Hassan "Chop" Whiteside	C	29	7' 0"	265 lbs	Marshall	$25,434,262
20	Justise "Sp? #10" Winslow	SF	22	6' 7"	225 lbs	Duke	$3,448,926

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Barton had successful surgery on his abductor/hip and is week to week (whatever that means.) Harris is a game time decision with an achy hammy. As for

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Data:

TPM™ Game 39 MIA

Jamal Murray: +14

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Monte Morris: +1

Brandon Goodwin: -2

Gary Harris: N/A

Malik Beasley: +3

Torrey Craig: +17

Will Barton: Injured

Juancho Hernangomez: -7

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: +10

Trey Lyles: +13

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +46

Mason Plumlee: +13

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 39 games +690

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 39 games +451

Brandon Goodwin: 7 games +15

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 25 games +384

Malik Beasley: 39 games +227

Torrey Craig: 34 games +25

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 38 games +14

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 31 games +305

Trey Lyles: 39 games +217

Tyler Lydon: 12 games +8

Nikola Jokic: 39 games +840

Mason Plumlee: 39 games +279

Thomas Welsh: 8 games +17

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.69

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +11.56

Brandon Goodwin: +2.14

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +15.36

Malik Beasley: +5.82

Torrey Craig: +0.74

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.37

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.84

Trey Lyles: 5.56

Tyler Lydon: +0.67

Nikola Jokic: +21.54

Mason Plumlee: +7.15

Thomas Welsh: +2.13

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 38:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets return to their 3rd iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Craig, Millsap & Jokic. The counter with

Denver is paced in TPM by as they after one.

Qtr2- The

Denver is paced in TPM by as they at the half.

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Qtr3- The

Denver is paced in TPM by as they after three.

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Qtr4- The

Denver is paced in TPM by as they
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Final Thoughts: The entire Miami Heat roster would foul themselves out after one quarter defending Harden.

What did we do to get the two worst PA announcers in the league on B2B nights?

I mean this sincerely, Torrey Craig's situational offensive rebounding is going to be a very real asset IF and only if Malone utilizes him properly, as a situational player for short stints. It's heartening to see him develop an elite NBA skill; kind of a "playing with house money" situation. Gravy baby! If he saw fewer minutes I imagine his defensive lapses would dissipate and his shot would be true more frequently as well.

It's pretty difficult to envision Juancho getting many minutes once Barton returns and that's a tribute to Torrey Craig's growth but again, his minutes should come in short stints.

Good to finally see signs of life out of Trey.

Yes, Juancho appears to be the odd man out I'm afraid. I don't know how many times I found myself talking to my dog, saying why the fuck is Juancho still out there?

One HELL of a gritty, road victory for the good guys.

BTW, I saw what you did there with that "down under" reference on the FT tip in by Torrey, Marlowe. Two claps as my amigo Mateo might say.

Another ho-hum 3D for Big Honey complete with the ho-humiest of ho-hum game-winners. Denver wins 103-99.

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The Nuggets Win!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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