The best point guard in the East. As he goes, so go the Hornets.
Legends, Both.
Keepin' the seat warm for Barton.
Nuggets vs Hornets II: FUCK 3 PM SATURDAY START TIMES!
When last these two teams squared off in game 25 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players led by Nikola Jokic: +20. Two players for the Nuggets, Torrey Craig and Trey Lyles: -8 were in the red for that match-up as Denver suffered a defeat on the road in North Carolina, 113-107.
As for this game, no analysis unfortunately for only the second time all season and due to the same reason; the strange 3pm Saturday tip-off conflicting with my weekend volunteer work. What's more is I kinda like the comparison data I started in the last game so I'm going to leave the unsightly template for that in place so that I can utilize it in the following game which makes for an even more disjointed and dreadful display than before, for this one. All apologies. For now you may want to skip down following this paragraph to ignore the Sacramento jibber-jabber and take up after my game score prediction section.
Sacramento gives up 116.7 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 104.8.
The Kings average 115.0 ppg offensively to the Nuggets 110.1.
Sacramento is 10-8 at home while Denver is 9-8 on the road.
In conference victories the Kings are 12-15 to the Nuggets 15-6 record.
Denver is also the only team in the league who are undefeated (5-0) within their division which means next to nothing aside from using it as a barometer in the strength of competition level.
Denver of course leads the Western Conference standings while Sacramento
In terms of the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:
(team with advantage in bold)
SAC: RPG 44.6 APG 25.4 SPG 8.35 BPG 4.70 FG% .469 FT% .709 3% .383
DEN: RPG 46.9 APG 27.2 SPG 8.46 BPG 4.80 FG% .464 FT% .748 3% .353
Prediction: The numbers favor ... but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone. To that end I'm going to glance at the box scores from the previous three games to get an idea of what we can expect.
For the Kings, I'll stop short of saying that +- or indeed any defensive metric is an indication of actual defense played without the benefit of the eye test. I refuse, as defensive statistics (including coming to conclusions based upon +-) are still heavily flawed.
For Denver, individual consistency is simply not a thing for this squad so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/defined in the coming games.
There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example,
Denver (lap) - Kings
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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.
There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!
Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team
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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!
(After these messages... Er Nicknames)
Charlotte Hornets Roster
Coach: "The Spectacular" James Borrego
| NO | Name | POS | Age | HT | WT | College | Salary | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dwayne "Paleo" Bacon | SG | 23 | 6' 7" | 221 lbs | Florida State | $1,378,242 | |||
| 5 | Nicolas "Rochambeau" Batum | SF | 29 | 6' 8" | 200 lbs | Francais |
$24,000,000 | |||
| 8 | Bismack "Bitch Smack" Biyombo | C | 26 | 6' 9" | 255 lbs | DRC |
$17,000,000 | |||
| 0 | Miles "Lloyd" Bridges | SF | 20 | 6' 7" | 225 lbs | Michigan State | $3,206,640 | |||
| 31 | Joe "Zhou Chi" Chealey | PG | 23 | 6' 3" | 190 lbs | Charleston | G-Money | |||
| 4 | Devonte "The Cracker" Graham | PG | 23 | 6' 2" | 185 lbs | Kansas | $988,464 | |||
| 41 | C | 24 | 6' 11" | 240 lbs | Espania |
$1,544,951 | ||||
| 44 | Frank "The Plank" Kaminsky | PF | 25 | 7' 0" | 242 lbs | Wisconsin | $3,627,842 | |||
| 14 | "Sir" Michael Kidd-Gilchrist "Of Gloucestershire" | SF | 25 | 6' 7" | 232 lbs | Kentucky | $13,000,000 | |||
| 3 |
|
SG | 26 | 6' 5" | 185 lbs | Connecticut | $7,488,372 | |||
| 55 | J.P. "Candello" Macura | SG | 23 | 6' 5" | 205 lbs | Xavier | G-Money |
|||
| 1 | Malik "Eminem" Monk | SG | 20 | 6' 3" | 200 lbs | Kentucky | $3,447,480 | |||
| 9 | Tony "Tee Pee" Parker | PG | 36 | 6' 2" | 185 lbs | Francais |
$5,000,000 | |||
| 15 | Kemba "Not Averse To The Shocker" Walker | PG | 28 | 6' 1" | 184 lbs | Connecticut | $12,000,000 | |||
| 2 | "Carvin" Marvin Williams | PF | 32 | 6' 9" | 237 lbs | North Carolina | $14,087,500 | |||
| 40 | Cody "The Good-ish" Zeller | C | 26 | 7' 0" | 240 lbs | Indiana | $13,528,090 |
Denver Nuggets Roster
Coach: Coach: Michael "Post" Malone
| NO | Name | POS | Age | HT | WT | College | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Will "The People's Champion" Barton | SG | 27 | 6' 6" | 190 lbs | Memphis | $11,830,358 |
| 25 | "Mutant" Malik Beasley | SG | 22 | 6' 5" | 195 lbs | Florida State | $1,773,840 |
| 3 | Torrey "FUCKING" Craig | SF | 27 | 6' 7" | 215 lbs | USC Upstate | $2,000,000 |
| 2 | Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin | PG | 23 | 6' 2" | 180 lbs | Florida Gulf Coast | $630,032 |
| 14 | "Just" Gary Harris | SG | 24 | 6' 4" | 210 lbs | Michigan State | $16,517,857 |
| 41 | Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez | PF | 23 | 6' 9" | 230 lbs | Espana |
$2,166,360 |
| 15 | Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker) | C | 23 | 7' 0" | 250 lbs | Gotham |
$24,605,181 |
| 20 | Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon | PF | 22 | 6' 10" | 225 lbs | Syracuse | $1,874,640 |
| 7 | Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles | PF | 23 | 6' 10" | 234 lbs | Kentucky | $3,364,249 |
| 4 | Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap | PF | 33 | 6' 8" | 246 lbs | Louisiana Tech | $29,230,769 |
| 11 | Monte "Ratio" Morris | PG | 23 | 6' 3" | 175 lbs | Iowa State | $1,349,383 |
| 27 | Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray | PG | 21 | 6' 4" | 207 lbs | Kentucky | $3,499,800 |
| 24 | Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee | PF | 28 | 6' 11" | 235 lbs | Duke | $12,917,808 |
| 1 | Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr. | PF | 20 | 6' 10" | 210 lbs | Missouri | $2,894,160 |
| 0 | Isaiah "Ice" Thomas | PG | 29 | 5' 9" | 185 lbs | Washington | $1,512,601 |
| 8 | Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt | PF | 19 | 6' 9" | 214 lbs | Kentucky | $838,464 |
| 45 | Thomas "Irvine" Welsh | C | 22 | 7' 0" | 255 lbs | UCLA | G-Money |
Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Barton had successful surgery on his abductor/hip and is week to week (whatever that means.) As for
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Data:
TPM™ Game 37 CHA
Jamal Murray: +19
Isaiah Thomas: Injured
Monte Morris: +4
Brandon Goodwin: +0
Gary Harris: +36
Malik Beasley: -5
Torrey Craig: +1
Will Barton: Injured
Juancho Hernangomez: -16
Michael Porter Jr.: Injured
Jared Vanderbilt: Injured
Paul Millsap: +21
Trey Lyles: +8
Tyler Lydon: +0
Nikola Jokic: +43
Mason Plumlee: +13
Thomas Welsh: N/A
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Total TPM™
Jamal Murray: 37 games +664
Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0
Monte Morris: 37 games +439
Brandon Goodwin: 5 games +17
Nick Young: 3 games -2
Gary Harris: 24 games +368
Malik Beasley: 37 games +214
Torrey Craig: 32 games +20
DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5
Will Barton: 2 games +33
Juancho Hernangomez: 36 games +24
Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0
Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0
Paul Millsap: 29 games +291
Trey Lyles: 36 games +209
Tyler Lydon: 12 games +8
Nikola Jokic: 37 games +783
Mason Plumlee: 37 games +262
Thomas Welsh: 8 games +17
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
Jamal Murray: +17.95
Isaiah Thomas: N/A
Monte Morris: +11.86
Brandon Goodwin: +3.40
Nick Young: -0.67
Gary Harris: +15.33
Malik Beasley: +5.78
Torrey Craig: +0.63
DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83
Will Barton: +16.50
Juancho Hernangomez: +0.67
Michael Porter Jr.: N/A
Jared Vanderbilt: N/A
Paul Millsap: +10.03
Trey Lyles: 5.81
Tyler Lydon: +0.67
Nikola Jokic: +21.16
Mason Plumlee: +7.08
Thomas Welsh: +2.13
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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 36: 
*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak
Qtr1- The Nuggets return to their 4th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Craig, Juancho, Millsap & Jokic. The counter with
Denver is paced in TPM by as they after one.
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Qtr2- I just have a feeling I'm going to be saying something about K2 here. Not so as I'm instead working!
Denver is paced in TPM by as they at the half.
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Qtr3- The
Denver is paced in TPM by as they after three.
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Qtr4- The
Denver is paced in TPM by as they a final sore of
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Final Thoughts: Enough Malone! You are winning in SPITE of starting Craig/Plumlee over Harris/Millsap, not beCAUSE of it. Juancho wasn't invisible as some of you might be thinking. Charlotte knew exactly who he was "defending" at all times and their entire offense was for Kemba to score or else pass to whomever Juancho "defended", when Walker was met with resistance. Also, the Nuggets won.
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The Nuggets Win!
For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™
A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:
As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.
Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.
I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.
While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.
Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.
I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.
As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.
Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
