After all these years, Gasol & Conley still represent the Jaws & Claws of this season's Bear attack.

And this match-up of similarly skilled big men remains the focal point.

The Band may NEVER be back together! Murray is still out with a nasty ankle injury.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies III: Two of the most plodding teams in the league go walkin' in Memphis.

When last these two teams squared off in game 27 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from three players led by Jamal Murray and Monte Morris: +18. Only Juancho Hernangomez: -8 was in the red for that match-up as the Nuggets were victorious at home by a score of 105-99. The duo of Jokic/Morris combined for a line of 47-18-11 in that one and similar production will be necessary tonight as the Nuggets will be without the services of their tough-as-nails PG Jamal Murray, which will likely result again in moving Barton over to the point rather than simply sliding super-sub Monte Morris into the starting lineup, because Malone refuses to not vastly over-play situational defender (and little more) Torrey Craig.

As for this game, Memphis has been trending downward for a long stretch now and are wrapping up an abysmal five game home-stand in which their only win came against a Pacers team, playing the game after they had lost their star guard Victor Oladipo for the season.

Denver has a massive bench advantage even with Murray, IT and MPJ out and enjoy the head-to-head match-up advantages at all positions amongst the starters except for PG where Conley would own the edge even if Murray were playing.

Now here are some numbers you can use:

Memphis gives up 104.0 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 106.2

The Grizzlies average 100.8 PPG offensively to the Nuggets 112.0

This results in a net rating for Memphis of -3.3 and +5.7 for Denver

Memphis is just 12-13 at home while Denver is 11-11 on the road

In terms of conference record, the Grizzlies are 13-17 to the Nuggets 19-10 mark which is important only in as much as understanding the strength of schedule involved as the Western Conference is as much as ever, the stiffer competition.

Denver of course is second in the Western Conference standings, 1.5 games behind the Warriors while Memphis currently resides in 14th place in the Western Conference, 15.5 games out.

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)

MEM: RPG 39.9 APG 23.5 SPG 8.78 BPG 5.82 FG% .452 FT% .756 3% .341

DEN: RPG 47.0 APG 27.3 SPG 7.79 BPG 4.52 FG% .470 FT% .754 3% .358

The numbers on whole favor the Nuggets but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone.

To that end, Denver has won 16 of their last 20 & seven of their last 10 while Memphis has been victorious in just four of their last 20 games & only two of their last 10.

For this young Nuggets group, individual consistency is simply not a thing so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

With that said, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and Barton is the much needed secondary ball handler/play-maker for when things go awry; a natural scorer/creator and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Murray, I.T. and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, Denver has no perimeter defenders capable of mitigating the damage caused by Conley at the point of attack while Memphis lacks the depth in personnel to withstand the energy in waves attack of this deep Nuggets squad, so the Grizz' will assuredly attempt to clutch & grab; generally muck up the flow so that they have a chance of pulling off the upset.

Prediction: Denver 111 (lap ) - Memphis 105

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert by permission of Denver Stiffs: If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

Also, my DIY music production and videos can be heard/seen here if you don't value your eardrums.

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Memphis Grizzlies Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
1	Kyle "The Yahoo Fantasy Bad Luck Charm" Anderson	SF	25	6' 9"	230 lbs	UCLA	$8,641,000
24	Dillon "The Chillin' Villain" Brooks	SG	22	6' 6"	220 lbs	Oregon	$1,378,242
8	MarShon "No Chill" Brooks	SG	29	6' 5"	200 lbs	Providence	$1,656,092
3	Jevon "Sp? #4" Carter	PG	23	6' 2"	196 lbs	West Virginia	$838,464
18	Omri "Resembles My Hebrew Buddy Rob" Casspi	SF	30	6' 9"	225 lbs	Israelia	$1,512,601
11	Mike "D" Conley	PG	31	6' 1"	175 lbs	Ohio State	$30,521,115
33	Marc "Mr Memphis" Gasol	C	33	7' 1"	255 lbs	Espana	$24,119,025
0	JaMychal "Christ Almighty" Green	PF	28	6' 9"	227 lbs	Alabama	$7,666,667
13	Jaren Jackson "Just J's" Jr.	PF	19	6' 11"	242 lbs	Michigan State	$5,915,040
6	Shelvin "Shaq" Mack	PG	28	6' 3"	203 lbs	Butler	$1,512,601
25	Chandler "Petrie Dish" Parsons	SF	30	6' 10"	230 lbs	Florida	$24,107,258
10	Ivan "The Terrible" Rabb	PF	21	6' 10"	220 lbs	California	$1,378,242
7	Wayne Selden "Used"	SG	24	6' 5"	230 lbs	Kansas	$1,544,951
20	DJ "Don't Judge My Horrible Nicknames tonight" Stephens	SG	27	6' 5"	188 lbs	Memphis	G-Money
17	Garrett "My Body Is An Amusement Park" Temple	SG	32	6' 6"	195 lbs	LSU	$8,000,000
12	Yuta "The Shoota" Watanabe	G	24	6' 9"	205 lbs	George Washington	G-Money

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Murray is also out with a badly twisted ankle. WOW! That was short! As for MEM, Jamal Murray's main man Kyle Anderson is questionable with, wouldn't you know it, an ankle injury (twinzies), Casspi is doubtful with a knee injury the remaining Brooks bro and Temple are out with toe and shoulder ailments respectively and Parsons is out at da club.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 49 MEM

Jamal Murray: Injured

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Monte Morris: +4

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Gary Harris: +9

Malik Beasley: +16

Torrey Craig: -5

Will Barton: +14

Juancho Hernangomez: -4

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: G-League

Paul Millsap: -3

Trey Lyles: -7

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +19

Mason Plumlee: +0

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 47 games +803

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 49 games +559

Brandon Goodwin: 13 games +21

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 31 games +441

Malik Beasley: 49 games +328

Torrey Craig: 45 games +2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 10 games +111

Juancho Hernangomez: 47 games +2

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt:1 games +3

Paul Millsap: 41 games +345

Trey Lyles: 47 games +264

Tyler Lydon: 19 games -1

Nikola Jokic: 48 games +1099

Mason Plumlee: 49 games +393

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.09

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +11.41

Brandon Goodwin: +1.62

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +14.23

Malik Beasley: +6.69

Torrey Craig: +0.04

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +11.10

Juancho Hernangomez: +0.04

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: 3.00

Paul Millsap: +8.41

Trey Lyles: 5.62

Tyler Lydon: -0.05

Nikola Jokic: +22.90

Mason Plumlee: +8.02

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 45:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets go with their 9th iteration of the starting five, consisting of Barton, Harris, Craig, Millsap & Jokic, The Grizzlies counter with Conley, Carter, Holiday, JJJ & Gasol. The piped-in sound is making this... ahem... late arriving crowd, seem raucous. Denver looks disinterested as Memphis jumps out to a 5-0 run at 10:00. It makes zero sense to start Craig (full stop) but especially over Morris, with Murray out. The Grizz lead 13-2 at 8:51, causing Malone to burn a timeout. Craig simply isn't the defender our coach believes him to be and Enver 's team defense over the last month with him playing huge minutes should be all the evidence he needs. Tonight it is Conley who is torching Craig. Why not at least benefit from the spacing, ball handling and generalship that Morris would have provided? Malone makes zero adjustments to the lineup after the break and it's 16-2 at 8:05.

Enver is getting it ever-so-slightly going offensively in spite of this mismatched unit and they cut it to nine at 5:54. Morris FINALLY is inserted at this time but NOT for Craig! Barton instead checks out. Plumlee is in for 'Sap at 4:45, trailing by nine. Jokic is refusing to cover Gasol who is torching him from outside. Lyles is in at 3:10 and Craig is inexplicably the last man standing amongst starters. Unbelievable! Memphis hits two straight from downtown, one a piece vs Torrey & Lyles and Malone calls another timeout, trailing by 14. Beasley checks in at 2:45 along with Juancho. Enver really has their work cut out for them and they have got to park Craig's ineffective ass on the bench/get Jokic out of his funk if they hope to do anything with these Grizzlies tonight. Sometimes it's ok to just outscore a team with no bench Coach. Enver is paced in TPM by Barton +5 as they trail 16-30 after one.

Qtr2- The Grizz lead by 17 on the strength of a 13-3 run. Enver is refusing to run offense and especially to attack the rim. It's as if they've done nothing but gone over defense in film study. I've got news for you Coach, that ain't the personnel you have to play with! Outscore your opponent! The lead is 18 at 7:30 as the starters begin trickling in again for Enver . The APPROPRIATE five of Morris/Harris/Barton/Millsap & Jokic are finally in for the first time after the commercial break at this time. It's short lived as team MVP Torrey Craig quickly replaces Morris, down 15 at 5:15. Nobody for Enver has scored more than five points! It's now abundantly clear to me that the Nuggets are overcompensating in the film room on D, stubbornly so, as opposed to playing to their strengths, logically so.

Jokic is utterly invisible to this point and has yet to touch the ball in the post. The lead is 19 with 2:56 to play. This is not the sort of team (Memphis) which readily allows large comebacks against. Morris mercifully replaces Craig at 2:32, still trailing by 19. Clearly coach Unseld is reading along with TPM which I publish following each quarter (in case anyone hasn't noticed.) Barton makes ONE in double figures as Enver cuts it to 14 at 1:45. This is simply put, ugly basketball, exactly the way Memphis likes it. Beasley replaces Harris to keep him from earning a third foul with under a minute remaining. Wake the fuck up Nuggets! Enver is led in TPM by Barton +11 as they trail 41-60 at the half.

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Qtr3- The most likely scenario is that Malone chews their asses out at halftime about D, which marginally improves in the second half, while the Memphis mechanics re-adjust the stiff rim on the south side and Enver continues to clunk away from the perimeter on offense. Thus-far, Lyles/Juancho & Millsap have combined for exactly zero points in just under one half hour of combined court time. Oddly, three point shooting isn't even a factor as both teams have sucked on high. Rebounds however are an issue as this putrid rebounding team has a nine board edge at halftime over the good guys. Malone is T'ed up in defending Jokic after an offensive foul. You finally did something right tonight Coach. The defensive intensity seems to FINALLY be arriving following this. The offense is STILL out of sorts to put it kindly. The lead is up to 22 as Enver continues to hoist despite being only 4-22 from downtown. JJJ nabs his 4th foul, "an obvious pass interference" says Marlowe, at 8:47. Big Honey posts up and earns two free throws. What do you know? The Grizz are in the penalty already with eight minutes left to play.

This is sickening frankly; Enver has perhaps the best backup PG in the league and is instead forcing a SF who has played all of nine games this year, to handle the ball and D up against one of the best PG's in the league in Conley. What part of that makes sense Malone? The lead is 25 for Memphis with 6:54 to go. Monte checks in again for Barton, not Craig at this point. 'Sap finally scores at 5:50, cutting it to 21. Big Honey FINALLY makes two in double digits, trailing by 21 at 4:46. Craig sits at 3:54 trailing by 20. Note this. Gasol has ZERO personal fouls. He hacks the bejezus out of Jokic and it's called on the dude with the clunky "C" name instead. Jokic cuts it to 17 at 2:40 with two from the charity stripe. It's now down to 15 as Nikola is becoming aggressive. Is it a coincidence that this comes with the better spacing provided by having non-threat Craig on the bench? No. The answer is of course no. Plumlee gets called for a flagrant foul, fighting through a screen, halting all momentum at 1:40; a five point swing. Let BOTH teams play physically refs. Gasol plays the entire third so hopefully he must rest a bit in the fourth as Enver cuts it to 17 with some aggressive drives by Monte. Enver is paced in TPM by Jokic +13 as they trail 60-77 after three.

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Qtr4- The Nuggets are now 4-17 from beyond the arc. Seriously. Lyles/Juancho/Millsap have now combined for two points. Two straight from distance by Malik and Enver cuts it to 14, again making a run with Craig on the bench at 10:11. I hate to shit on the guy. He's a great person to have on your squad for late game spot duty when you need a stop, he just disrupts the offensive flow so obviously that he can not be deployed for meaningful minutes. He's played about 20 too many tonight. That's on Malone, not on Torrey. Barton is STILL not a point guard unfortunately. On a drive however, he cuts it to 12 with 8:30 to play. Jokic/Harris check in at 7:47, down 12. Conley is gifted three FT's on a lazy close-out by Harris, killing the momentum at 7:21 and increasing the lead to 14. The starters - Craig + Beasley are in at 7:15 for Enver. Barton cuts it to 11 on a layup at 6:01. Millsap is just not right and Enver was at their best in the early fourth with Plumlee dominating the glass. Hopefully Malone can atone for his sins my making this substitution following a break at 5:14 of an 11 point game. Not so. Beasley makes just three in double figures for the Nuggets. The Grizz have zero field goals over the past four + minutes. Memphis is in the penalty at 4:31 and the lead is back up to 13 after a free throw by Anderson. Enver is 38% from the field! JJJ fouls out and in doing so, sends Enver into the bonus at 4:12, as 'Sap cuts it to 11 from the line.

Beasley cuts it to seven with two straight fast-break layups! D-enver has all the momentum with a full three minutes to go. A three by Barton and the lead is just four with 2:49 remaining! Memphis has missed nine straight shots. Gasol makes a circus shot while being fouled for the three point play but he misses the free throw and the lead is six. Jokic cuts it to four again on a drive. Harris cuts it to two with under two minutes to go! Gasol bullies one in to make it four again. Beasley drills a three and the Nuggets are down by just one! Denver has the ball with under a minute to go trailing by two. Barton nails it from beyond the arc and Denver leads by two with 43.5 to go! Don't foul! FUCK! Holiday hits a three after Harris hits the floor and Memphis leads by one with 36 seconds to go. Wouldn't the two man game between Jamal and Jokic be nice here? Jokic scores and gives Denver the lead on his patented beautifully ugly mob-hook over stout D by Gasol. No timeouts remain so Memphis advances. Anderson misses two shots he had no desire to take despite shoddy defense and he rebounds the ball out of bounds with exactly three seconds remaining. Jokic fails to inbound and Denver spends their final timeout which will allow them to advance to half court. Jokic inbounds to Harris who is fouled with only 1/2 a second ticking off the clock. He sinks both and Memphis needs a three! They must inbound from under their own hoop with no timeouts remaining. Conley misses from half court and this baby is ova! Denver is paced in TPM by Barton +14, Beasley +16 and Jokic +19 as they win a thriller, 95-92!

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Final Thoughts: The MVP of the night was whomever decided to glue Craig's ass to the bench in the fourth period. If that was Coach Malone's decision, then credit where due to him.

This ties the largest comeback in Denver Nuggets team history, coming back from 25 down!

What's that thing I always say about momentum? Well go ahead and scroll up so I don't have to repeat myself.

No player in the league spaces the floor nearly as much as Torrey Craig does... from the bench. He was the only Nugget with a double digit negative impact on plus/minus with a -17.

Happy birthday to my long-time friends, band-mates and fellow Nuggets enthusiasts Rob and Matthew.

I said FINALLY quite a lot tonight. I'll take a lap. A victory lap at that. May as well take my pooch who's been patient enough with me tonight. Enjoy this one Stiffs!

Anyone notice how Enver picked up the D as the fourth period wore on? ;)

34-15 = the best start in franchise history, NBA or otherwise.

Overall, NBA teams leading by 25 or more in the second half had been 174-0 this season- ESPN's recap

The Nuggets Win!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.
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