This upstart assembly may just have what it takes to contend for a playoff position.

Denver should look to exploit this match-up if the Warriors again deploy this strategy.

The Band is back together! FINALLY! Wait... is it?

Nuggets vs Warriors II: #1 vs #2 in the Western Conference

When last these two teams squared off in game 3 of this season the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players led by Gary Harris: +21. Only Jamal Murray: -1 was in the red for that match-up as the Nuggets narrowly defeated the two time and defending NBA champs by a final score of 100-98.

In that game Denver shot an abysmal 24-42 from the charity stripe, a putrid 6-32 from beyond the arc and a scorching (by comparison) 41% on 35-86 from the floor. How on earth did they salvage a victory? The bench drastically outplayed their counterparts for the very thin Warriors squad, outscoring them 36-21. The Nuggets held Durant/Thompson/Green to a combined 39 points and forced Curry to earn his 30 points on 23 shots. Jerebko/Green led the Warriors with just a +4 in plus/minus while Denver had two players in double figures, led by Monte Morris and his +18 rating.

As for this game, it's about as important as any mid-season game gets which is to say very important; not the slightest bit important. What is however notable is that whomever wins will be atop the Western Conference and in the drivers seat going forward.

Now here are some numbers you can use:

Golden State gives up 111.7 PPG by their opponents on average, to Denver's 105.5

The Warriors average 117.4 ppg offensively to the Nuggets 110.4

This results in a net rating for Golden State of +5.7 and +4.9 for Denver

Golden State is 12-8 on the road while Denver is 18-3 at home

In terms of conference record The Warriors are 17-10 to the Nuggets 18-8 mark

Denver is also the only team in the league that is undefeated (6-0) within their division which means next to nothing aside from using it as a barometer in the strength of competition level

Denver of course leads the Western Conference standings while Golden State currently resides in 2nd place, just .5 games out

When it comes to the other meaningful statistical box-score production the comparison is as follows:

(team with advantage in bold)

GS: RPG 46.2 APG 28.4 SPG 7.33 BPG 6.40 FG% .486 FT% .824 3% .385

DEN: RPG 47.0 APG 27.1 SPG 8.02 BPG 4.67 FG% .465 FT% .749 3% .351

The numbers on whole favor the Warriors, largely due to their unmatched shooting prowess but as anyone who reads my piece knows, I don't believe any statistic or even a complex, predictive conglomeration of statistics are nearly as accurate in indicating actual results as are the unquantifiable variables of "Mo & flow™" momentum and the ability to find the zone. To that end, Denver has won 12 of their last 16 while Golden state have been victorious in four straight, and 10 of their last 16.

As one might expect, over the course of the last three games it's been Curry/Thompson/Durant leading the charge to victory, each of them alternating nights to go the fuck off, with scoring highs of 48/43/28 respectively.

For Denver, individual consistency is simply not a thing for this squad so it's more difficult to predict how a player will contribute based upon trends; particularly so as the starters begin filtering back from injury and roles are altered/redefined in the coming games. Jokic has been consistently good but in different ways seemingly every night.

With that said, Big Honey is a legit MVP candidate and an emerging superstar, while Murray is coming into his own as Robin to The Joker's Batman (I'm not certain how that works either) while Millsap/Harris provide secondary options when things get problematic on offense; simultaneously carrying the bulk of the defensive burden and the Nuggets boast one of the deepest benches in the league, even without Vandy, I.T. and MPJ.

There are of course many other variables at play including match-ups; styles make fights. For example, this Warriors squad traditionally struggles to match up with Denver for reasons no one seems to fully understand. I don't think anyone suffers the delusion that the league's second youngest team, the Nuggets would win a seven game playoff series vs the battle tested champs but over the course of the last several regular seasons at least, Denver has played them even in the last eight contests, including victories in three of the last four.

Prediction: Denver 115 (lap ) - Golden State 111. The Warriors are as hot as anyone in the West but lets be honest, they haven't exactly been playing the toughest schedule recently. Given the way these teams match up and how dominant Denver is at The Can where they've won 12 straight, I'd be a fool to pick literally any team, even the NBA champions over the Western Conference leading Nuggets Injuries or not, at this juncture.

______________________________________________________________________________________________

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Golden State Warriors Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
2	Jordan Bell "Grande"	PF	23	6' 9"	224 lbs	Oregon	$1,378,242
4	Quinn "Can" Cook "So Can You. Might I Suggest Delicious Panang Curry?"	PG	25	6' 2"	179 lbs	Duke	$1,544,951
0	DeMarcus " Boogie" Cousins	C	28	6' 11"	270 lbs	Kentucky	$5,337,000
30	Stephen "Panang" Curry	PG	30	6' 3"	190 lbs	Davidson	$37,457,154
32	Marcus "Leif" Derrickson	F	22	6' 7"	249 lbs	Georgetown	G-Money
35	Kevin "Tall-Ball" Durant	SF	30	6' 9"	240 lbs	Texas	$30,000,000
10	Jacob "Seventh" Evans	SG	21	6' 6"	210 lbs	Cincinnati	$1,644,240
23	"Mean" Draymond Green	PF	28	6' 7"	230 lbs	Michigan State	$17,469,565
9	Andre "The Mole" Iguodala	SG	34	6' 6"	215 lbs	Arizona	$16,000,000
21	Jonas "Jumpin Jehoshaphat" Jerebko	PF	31	6' 10"	231 lbs	Swedonia	$1,512,601
15	Damian "I'm Assuming DJ?" Jones	C	23	7' 0"	245 lbs	Vanderbilt	$1,544,951
1	Damion "David" Lee	SG	25	6' 6"	210 lbs	Louisville	G-Money
34	Shaun "Gargantuan Andre Miller" Livingston	PG	33	6' 7"	192 lbs	America, Presumably	$8,307,692
5	Kevon "Chopper, Sick Balls!" Looney	SF	22	6' 9"	220 lbs	UCLA	$1,512,601
28	Alfonzo "Skinny" McKinnie	SF	26	6' 8"	215 lbs	Green Bay	$1,349,383
11	Klay "Coup Ferre" Thompson	SG	28	6' 7"	215 lbs	Washington State	$18,988,725

Denver Nuggets Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
5	Will "The People's Champion" Barton	SG	27	6' 6"	190 lbs	Memphis	$11,830,358
25	"Mutant" Malik Beasley	SG	22	6' 5"	195 lbs	Florida State	$1,773,840
3	Torrey "FUCKING" Craig	SF	27	6' 7"	215 lbs	USC Upstate	$2,000,000
2	Brandon "Hopefully Contributes To Many The" Goodwin	PG	23	6' 2"	180 lbs	Florida Gulf Coast	$630,032
14	"Just" Gary Harris	SG	24	6' 4"	210 lbs	Michigan State	$16,517,857
41	Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez	PF	23	6' 9"	230 lbs	Espana	$2,166,360
15	Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Joker)	C	23	7' 0"	250 lbs	Gotham	$24,605,181
20	Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon	PF	22	6' 10"	225 lbs	Syracuse	$1,874,640
7	Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles	PF	23	6' 10"	234 lbs	Kentucky	$3,364,249
4	Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap	PF	33	6' 8"	246 lbs	Louisiana Tech	$29,230,769
11	Monte "Ratio" Morris	PG	23	6' 3"	175 lbs	Iowa State	$1,349,383
27	Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray	PG	21	6' 4"	207 lbs	Kentucky	$3,499,800
24	Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee	PF	28	6' 11"	235 lbs	Duke	$12,917,808
1	Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr.	PF	20	6' 10"	210 lbs	Missouri	$2,894,160
0	Isaiah "Ice" Thomas	PG	29	5' 9"	185 lbs	Washington	$1,512,601
8	Jarred "The Amalgamated Version Of A Dude I Once Bought Weed From On Haight Ashbury" Vanderbilt	PF	19	6' 9"	214 lbs	Kentucky	$838,464
45	Thomas "Irvine" Welsh	C	22	7' 0"	255 lbs	UCLA	G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Harris is a game time decision with an achy hammy, as is Lyles with a wrist tendered by draining shot after shot. As for the Warriors, Boogie has yet to return from Achiles surgery and someone named Damian Jones is apparently out with a knee injury.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Data:

TPM™ Game 43 GS

Jamal Murray: +7

Isaiah Thomas: Injured

Monte Morris: -4

Brandon Goodwin: -6

Gary Harris: N/A

Malik Beasley: -1

Torrey Craig: -8

Will Barton: +2

Juancho Hernangomez: -8

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: -5

Trey Lyles: +11

Tyler Lydon: -2

Nikola Jokic: +19

Mason Plumlee: +18

Thomas Welsh: +1

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 43 games +737

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 43 games +496

Brandon Goodwin: 10 games +11

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 25 games +384

Malik Beasley: 43 games +268

Torrey Craig: 39 games +12

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 5 games +51

Juancho Hernangomez: 42 games -3

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 35 games +319

Trey Lyles: 40 games +221

Tyler Lydon: 15 games +7

Nikola Jokic: 43 games +941

Mason Plumlee: 43 games +328

Thomas Welsh: 9 games +18

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.14

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +11.53

Brandon Goodwin: +1.10

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +15.36

Malik Beasley: +6.23

Torrey Craig: +0.31

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +10.20

Juancho Hernangomez: -0.07

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.11

Trey Lyles: 5.53

Tyler Lydon: +0.47

Nikola Jokic: +21.88

Mason Plumlee: +7.63

Thomas Welsh: +2.00

__________________________________________________________________________________________

TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 40:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets again go with their 8th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Beasley, Craig, Millsap & Jokic. The Warriors counter with Curry, Thompson, Green, Durant & Looney. CLEARLY the Warriors are not taking this game lightly as they are hyper-focused and score the first five points. Their activity is also on another level when compared with the Nuggets who had better wake the fuck up or they'll be run out of their own gym. Malone is forced to break out the smelling salts at 9:21 with a timeout, down by nine already. GS is doubling Jokic when he moves, not on the catch which he can pick apart if the rest of the team can sink jumpers. I don't believe the Warriors have missed from distance and they lead by 11 at 7:47. Correction, they are 5-7, mostly contested.

Barton is first off the pine for the good guys at 7:05. GS is 6-8 from beyond the arc and lead by 12 at 6:33. The Nuggets are setting in offensively but Jokic picks up his second touch-foul and must check out at 5:28. He's replaced by Plumlee, naturally. Juancho is in at 4:45, trailing by ten. He sticks a three but Curry answers on the other end. The red-hot Klay has urn-ed his second foul and he checks out. UCWIDT? The altitude really seems to be effecting the Warriors who are running all over the Nuggets and are 8-11 from distance, en route to a 13 point lead with 3:16 to go. Denver is shooting 70% and trail by 11! GS is now 9-13 from distance and lead by 16. Make that 10-14 as KD drains one as if Juancho wasn't there... I mean, is he? Murray banks one in from 40 feet and an insanely fast paced quarter comes to an exciting conclusion. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray/Plumlee +9 as they trail 38-51 after one. FIFTY ONE! Five-one!

Qtr2- That's right folks, GS is on pace to score 204 and make 40-56 from beyond the arc! Altitude shmaltitude. Murray is the first Nugget to reach double figures in scoring. Monte is in to start the second. Barton is clobbered but the refs are playing to the momentum as always. GS is shooting 78.5% from the field and lead by 19 at 10:15. Green shoots a wide open three so they finally miss. Still, they are 11-16 from distance and lead by 20 at 9:45. Green is trying his damnedest to get thrown out and Zarba lets him jaw relentlessly after earning a T. Curry and Durant are both out for the first time and Denver cuts it to 17 on five straight points by Big Honey. GS calls a timeout, likely as a means to give KD/Curry an additional two minutes to rest prior to checking back in. Not so, as they both remain on the bench. Denver needs to make hay now with Thompson likely out for the remainder of the half with three fouls and the GS scrub-squad in.

To their credit the bench unit for the Warriors are holding serve and maintain a 19 point lead. Denver is in the penalty with 5:42 remaining; just what the doctor ordered. KD/Curry re-enter at this time. Another three by KD and the lead is 20 again at 4:33. GS is 13-21 from distance. Jokic earns his third foul, this one legit (and silly) and he's replaced by Plumlee. The Warriors already have 20 assists. Denver's secondary rotations are uncharacteristically dreadful while GS passing out of the double team has been a thing of beauty but Denver cuts it to 15 nonetheless on a Beasley drive. Murray leads all scorers with 21 but no other Nuggets are even in double figures. Two straight near-miss empty possessions by the Nuggets followed by GS conversions and the lead is back up to 19. Denver is paced in TPM by Plumlee +12 & Murray +15 by as they have their work cut out for them, down 60-79 at the half.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr3- This... This is why Denver doesn't have nearly the home court advantage that everyone outside of town (save the inimitably unlikable Bill Simmons) thinks they do.

We finally pay attention to the Nuggets and they’re getting blown out at half by Warriors. Can we get back to the Scangarello Watch? #9sports Mike Klis

Mike Klis you talentless proliferater of not-even-toilet-worthy tweets/video, you speak for you, 104.3 the fan and unfortunately for them, 9-news, NOT for "we."

GS makes two straight to open the third and the lead is 24; the crowd silent. The Warriors look like disinterested hoisters at the moment so the time is now if the Nuggets hope to get back into it in any measurable way. NOW the refs are choosing to call ticky-tack fouls on the Warriors since it seemingly doesn't matter. Jokic cuts it to 18 with four straight. The Nuggets are unfortunately playing with no movement on O nor intensity on D and that dog won't hunt vs the world champs who lead by 23 at 8:24. A Beas-three cuts it to 20 at 7:15 but he's struggled mightily on the other end of the court as have all Nuggets.

Millsap and Jokic make three in double figures. Denver is robbed of what would have been a four point play for a star in this league and are instead awarded the ball out of bounds since instead it was Murray. On the very next play Jokic is robbed of clear continuation for no reason and again awarded the ball out of bounds and the Warriors lead by 21 at 4:58. That's a seven point differential on two straight plays. Plumlee cuts it to 18 on a three point play. KD goal-tends; again missed by the refs and Curry drains one from three. That sequense illustrates the transpirings tonight fairly vividly. Denver is losing all on their own refs, the champs don't need any help. I don't think I'm covering the fourth. I'm on strike. Against whom? I'm not certain. The lead is up to 28 and I don't expect Durant and the suddenly clowning from 40 feet away on B2B plays Curry to play in the fourth, with a game looming vs NO tomorrow. Denver is paced in TPM byPlumlee +18 & Jokic +19 as they trail 83-112 after three.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr4- I started typing but Fuck this! Denver is paced in TPM by Lyles +11, Plumlee +18 & Jokic +19 as they shit the bed, losing 101-142 in Denver, snapping their 12 game home winning streak and falling to second in the West for the first time in many weeks.
___________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Thoughts: Fuck this too! Credit to the Warriors. They CLEARLY saw this as an important game and showed Denver exactly how much better they still are than them. Any day now Gary/IT/MPJ/Vandy!

Also, OKC was blown out by the Hawks tonight so it can always be worse.

Now if you'll excuse me I have presets for Game Time, Sports Center, ATH, PTI & Highly questionable to delete and a long walk with my dog in the 35 degree weather to complete.

We Suck Again!

For context pertaining to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

Denver Nuggets Warriors vs Nuggets coverage Golden State Of Mind