If the Magic can mold Isaac and Bamba into players similarly effective to these three, they'll be on to something.

Never Google. Enough said.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, who seems to be in a best case time-frame in terms of returning from an injury that required surgery. He should be back in the lineup by around December 15th.

For context with regard to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

Nuggets vs Orlando: Which Nikola is better?

I keed.

When last these two teams squared off in game 19 of this season, the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from a season high seven players led by Jamal Murray: +25. Two players were in the red for that encounter led by Juancho Hernangomez: -4, en route to a 112-87 keelhauling.

As for this game, it's hard to call this a trap game given that Orlando is a good team playing on their home turf but for an extremely young group like the Nuggets, it can be easy to disengage the throttle after two enormous road victories over upper echelon teams, especially given that they just escaped the Great White North for comparatively balmy Florida. When you couple that with the Magic having revenge on their mind I expect yet another hard-fought, down-to-the-wire game.

As an atheist, it worries me not that the Magic have Christ on their side but the irrational overconfidence and naivete of youth is a definite concern, so say your prayers Nuggets fans!

I watched a basketball program on the four letter network for the first and possibly last time of the year last night. In it, experts discussed how Denver should expect to fall back to the pack as teams like Houston, Golden State and for some reason the Lakers were listed, start to regain their health. To my knowledge the only meaningful player absent from the Lakers is the aged Rajon Rondo.

While I don't dispute that Denver will likely find themselves below both Houston and Golden State in the standings following game 82, the premise of injury was mentioned while failing to point out that Denver has been without two starters (Harris and Barton) for the majority of the year and currently, as well as prize free agent acquisition Isaiah Thomas and highly touted draft pick Michael Porter Jr, for the entire year. Further still, rookie Jared Vanderbilt could quite easily be called upon in crucial moments down the stretch as a high DBBIQ, uber-athletic, defense/offense sub in high-leverage situations and he's also been out all season... so ya, fuck off ESPN.

There is not a whole lot more that needs to be said given how recently these two clubs squared off but for detail on this rising Orlando unit, please feel free to check out my most recent piece on them here.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 101 - Orlando 99. A quick glance at Denver Stiffs shows a higher scoring, though similar prediction by Brendon Vogt, Nuggets 115 - Magic 108.

Go Nuggets!

______________________________________________________________________________________________

If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well s CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Orlando Magic Roster

Denver Nuggets Roster

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Harris is out indefinitely with numerous ailments of lower extremities. Millsap is expected to play through knee soreness after banging kneecaps with PG13. Murray is "banged up". Finally, Barton had successful surgery on his abductor and hip. He will be evaluated for return in mid-December. As for ORL, Our old pal Timo will be out with an undisclosed ailment.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Data:

TPM™ Game 24 ORL

Jamal Murray: +39

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +20

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Gary Harris: Injured

Malik Beasley: +4

Torrey Craig: -11

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: N/A

Will Barton: Injured

Juancho Hernangomez: +12

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: +7

Trey Lyles: -1

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +18

Mason Plumlee: +1

Thomas Welsh: G-League gettin' all the TPM!!!

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 24 games +399

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 24 games +291

Brandon Goodwin: 0 Games +0

Gary Harris: 21 games +315

Malik Beasley: 24 games +103

Torrey Craig: 19 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 23 games +55

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 24 games +224

Trey Lyles: 24 games +169

Tyler Lydon: +7 games +9

Nikola Jokic: 24 games +472

Mason Plumlee: 24 games +168

Thomas Welsh: 4 games+2

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +16.63

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.13

Brandon Goodwin: +0.00

Gary Harris: +15.00

Malik Beasley: +4.29

Torrey Craig: -0.11

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +2.39

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.33

Trey Lyles: 7.04

Tyler Lydon: +1.29

Nikola Jokic: +19.67

Mason Plumlee: +7.00

Thomas Welsh: +0.50

__________________________________________________________________________________________

TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 23/21:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their 4th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Craig, Juancho, Millsap & Jokic. The Magic counter with Augustin, Fournier, Simmons, Gordon & Vucevic. Denver looks lethargic as feared while Orlando seems determined (he types at the 10:30 mark of a 4-0 game.) The Nuggets lead 7-4 on the strength of a 7-0 run at 8:37. 'Sap hits two straight from beyond the arc and Orlando's three point defense looks horrendous! The lead is eight at 7:14 as they head into the initial break of the first period. All starters for Denver are contributing within their roles, even Craig and the good guys lead by 12 at 5:44. Gordon is making some high-degree-of-difficulty shots against Millsap and the lead is down to four at 3:23.

That can't last all night, can it? In a rarity, Plumlee is first off the pine at this point along with Morris. The Roman Column is in tact. Beasley is in soon after. Vooch earns a T with 1:59 to go that Morris takes/misses with Murray on the bench. I hate when facebook disallows me from hiding peoples posts. Lyles is in at 1:45 with the Nuggets leading by five. Denver has nine assists on 12 made baskets thus-far. Nearly all shots that Orlando has made have been well contested which obviously bodes well for the Nuggets as this game unfolds. I'll give the Magic this, Isaac is one tremendously elite defender already and Gordon is carrying the team with intense focus, so it could be very interesting the rest of the way. No players for either squad are in any serious individual foul trouble. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +13 & Murray +14 as they lead 31-28 after one.

Qtr2- Morris now has a turnover in his second straight game for what is likely the first time all season. I've mentioned this a couple of times but yes, Jamal Murray is indeed a PG and he looks decidedly comfortable in that role as time marches on. Ross ties it up from distance and the second unit for Denver has yet to gain traction. Both teams are playing on the perimeter in the second and the Magic are getting the better of the exchanges as they take a one point lead at 7:32. Plumlee is breaking out of his mini-funk and acquitting himself nicely tonight. Bamba has been impressive and I expect him to be an excellent player with the more film and game action he's able to research/add to his experiential arsenal. Murray is the first player to reach double figures for the Nuggets. Jokic has eight assists already as Denver leads by three at 4:04.

This continues to be the margin as the teams exchange buckets heading into a break at 3:22. Foul trouble doesn't look to be a factor tonight with so many outside jumpers being hoisted. Follow Jena Garcia @VidaVivaDiva on twitter. Solid in-game takes on the team we all love. I have to remember to say "I'm so happy" at some point in this game, when Juancho does something pertinent. Orlando continues to hit everything they chuck from beyond the arc and it's even-Steven at 54 with 1:34 remaining. Millsap makes two in double figures for Denver. The charity stripe bug is biting the Nuggets at the moment as they are 8-13 at the line. No players for either squad are in any serious individual foul trouble. We've got a good one on our hands as predicted. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +10 & Murray +19 as they lead 56-54 at the half.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr3- The Magic continue to sizzle the pits from downtown and they lead by one at 10:30. It's Murray's night to wear a hole in my writing pad. The Nuggets are going to have to get a sizable contribution from the bench squad if they hope to pull out the W in Florida tonight. The Nuggets lead by one at 8:10 as Fournier sticks yet another three. Penetrate and kick for a corner three; that is Orlando's MO (modus operandi. Shout out to David Lynch) each and every time down the court. Orlando is now 13-26 from beyond the arc. The threes that were contested for the most part early for Orlando are largely wide open ever since. Craig is struggling mightily on D tonight due to incessant head-turning off the ball and lead feet (comparatively speaking) while defending the much faster Augustin, on the ball.

Jokic has an outside shot at a 3D tonight with a 6-5-10 line at 4:14 but Denver is down six. Perhaps Monte can calm things as the bench unit filters in. Craig is the only starter that remains in which boggles the mind. Some three and D action from Beasley ties it up with 2:15 remaining. A second straight Monte-Beasley three gives Denver the lead at 1:28. Bamba sticks his third three of the night and gives Orlando a temporary lead before Morris knots it up. Monte has indeed been the steadying influence I called for moments ago and he gives Denver the lead with seconds to play. Denver is paced in TPM by Morris +17 & Murray +23 as they somehow lead 88-86 after three.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr4- The Magic were incredibly, 8-11 from distance in the third. Beasley earns two exceedingly fast fouls to begin the fourth before allowing a three from Ross. Orlando has yet to take a free throw and likely wont while playing exclusively from 40 feet away. Ironically, Plumlee is the only Denver player who can hit free throws in this game. He and Morris make four in double figures for the Nuggets who lead by six on the strength of a 7-0 run at 10:14. The bench performance I called for is also coming to fruition and I'm definitely buying a lotto ticket after this one if my Nuggets can hold on and win. I feel like I can will the money into my life. Isaac drives and the Magic will finally attempt their first free throws on the night. Lyles makes five in double figures for the good guys. Orlando retakes the lead on a J from Ross. It feels like Jokic has been entirely absent in the second half; stop me if you've heard this one. Denver is in the bonus at 6:44 but on this particular evening that doesn't mean a whole lot. The Nuggets have missed five straight from the stripe and are a putrid 15-26 on the night.

It's all knotted up at 98 with 6:13 to play. A phantom call on Grant in which the ref blew his whistle and then didn't know what to do sends expert free-thrower Mason Plumlee to the line where he splits them. The starters - Craig + Beasley, AKA what should have been the starters, are in tact for Denver at 5:00 of a tie game. Juancho makes six in double figures for the Nuggets. I'm so happy! Denver leads by two on his dunk. Orlando, an excellent free throw shooting team is now in the penalty at 3:05 which is obviously sub-optimal. Denver leads by two at this point nonetheless. Jokic has a 2D with 10-6-11, making seven Nuggets players in double figures and creating a three point lead with 1:11 remaining. Craig is inserted for defense, blows his assignment on Ross who drills a three and it's tied with six seconds to play. Torrey called for a Beasley switch entirely too late for Malik to do anything about it. Murray's last second shot goes in and out and they're heading for overtime. Denver is paced in TPM by Juancho +14, Jokic +15, Morris +20 & Murray +31 as they prepare to play bonus ball in Orlando, tied at 112.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

OT: The First point of overtime comes by way of a Millsap free-throw where Denver is now a repugnant 19-32. It's Fournier's fifth foul. Clearly, Evan is not concerned with sushi tonight unlike in their last encounter as he's on point. Murray is ice fucking cold ever since he missed a simple floater in the third and he's got to get over his mental streakiness. Never Google fouls out with two minutes to go; exactly what the doctor ordered! Having been disqualified already, he proceeds to earn his second T which is exceedingly immature given the circumstances. Murray nails the T and the lead is two. What did I just recently say about Jamal? This simple free throw makes him hot and he then sticks a three! The lead is suddenly seven with 1:10 remaining. Orlando scores four straight and this has been a tough game to watch but as a result, a victory would be all the more delicious. Vooch takes a silly foul on Jamal and that's all she wrote. Denver holds on to win and by any margin, that's all that can reasonably be expected given the circumstances. Good win! Denver is paced in TPM by Juancho +12, Jokic +18, Morris +20 & Murray +39 as they win yet another battle of attrition by a final score of 124-118.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Final Thoughts: This game was highly predictable throughout which is ultimately fine by me. The desired end result is all that matters. This one had the feel of a game in which the Nuggets wanted to make it close as a means to continue their string of interesting games. In a welcome and surprising turn of events, Denver CLEARLY got the benefit of the whistle which is pretty nice for a change. Make that seven in a row for the Western Conference leading Denver Nuggets; mash-unit, second youngest team in the league, incredibly cold three point shooting from each and every one of their traditionally-reliable marksmen and all. Any contest in which I'm afforded a Juancho call-back, I'll consider an excellent affair.

One side-note: I thought at the time of Murray's shot to end the fourth quarter that I didn't love it given just how cold he was but with Harris (their only proven clutch performer) out and the possibility of long term benefit involved with a confidence-player such as Jamal, in hindsight I take that back.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

The Nuggets Win!

Denver Nuggets Nuggets vs Magic coverage Orlando Pinstriped Post