While hardly alone, two-way talents (I mean that in the traditional sense) Lowry and Leonard are the heart and soul of the Raptors attack. A rarity amongst the NBA elite.

Two of Canada's finest make their annual migration home to the great white north. Clearly, geese they are not, lest they be confused with Raptors.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, who seems to be in a best case time-frame in terms of returning from an injury that required surgery. He should be back in the lineup by around December 15th.

For context with regard to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

Nuggets vs Toronto: This NBA dinosaur has the luxe of a gold standard to what the young Nuggets aspire towards.

When last these two teams squared off in game 75 of last season, the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from just two players led by Nikola Jokic: +18. In an anomaly, no Denver Nuggets players were in the red for that encounter, en route to a hard fought but ultimately fruitless defeat, by a score of 110-114 in Toronto.

Millsap played well on that night with 20 points on 9-12 shooting while Jokic gave an All-Star worthy performance with a sizzling line of 29-16-8-2-1 on 11/21, 3/7 & 4/4 splits but everyone else not named Lyles struggled from the floor.

No single player stood out for the Raptors in that game but seven players topped double figures, in winning a battle of attrition. That is what the Raptors are capable of. Their bench unit has yet to gel this year but the roster is deep and they can come at you in waves but make no mistake, Lowry and Leonard are legitimate stars in this league and are capable of winning games all on their own.

As for this game, it features a face-off between current Western Conference player of the week Paul Millsap and current Eastern Conference player of the week Kawhi Leonard. With that and Toronto's influx of talent represented by Leonard, the rejuvenated Green and the blossoming Siakam, set to square off against the Nuggets All-Star front court and the two Canadians flying home to roost, this is about as intriguing as a cross-conference, cross-continental, cross-country contest comes, complete with Colorado-Canucks!

Taking a lap for cuckoo alliteration.

Grinding opponents into submission with effort on both ends (not unlike these Rap's) has been Denver's specialty this season so hopefully it doesn't come down to the wire where Toronto will have the decided advantage of having known, clutch scorers in isolation.

Much like the Nuggets, the Raptors have six players averaging double figures and a few knocking at the door. Toronto is an extraordinary free throw shooting squad and has the star-power necessary to get there, so avoiding foul trouble (the game within the game which I so frequently allude to) will be paramount for Denver, the NBA's second youngest team, tonight.

The more you delve into the Numbers the more remarkable the similarities between these two teams become.

Denver is one of only two Western Conference teams (Golden State) who average above 25 assists and fewer than 15 turnovers per game with marks of 26.5 APG and 13.5 TPG. How does Toronto stack up? 25.1 APG, 14.2 TPG. Denver has the third best scoring differential in the entire league at +7.7, trailing Toronto's +8.8. Denver has the second longest win streak in the NBA at five games, trailing only Toronto's eight game streak. Denver rebounds at a 47.2 clip while Toronto nabs 45.9 boards per. Combined steals/blocks: Denver = 13.55, Toronto = 13.50. Three point shooting is also nearly identical: Denver = .347, Toronto = .350.

Where Toronto separates themselves from the Nuggets is in FG% (.495-.465) and as mentioned, from the charity stripe (.797-.751) But even those numbers are in the same general ballpark.

By the numbers, Denver is relying more on defense than is Toronto but I don't entirely buy that a team featuring Lowry and Leonard is anything but elite defensively, especially when you throw in names like Ibaka, Siakam, Green and Anunoby. These numbers will redistribute some by season's end. Trust me, I'm the worlds most highly regarded statistician.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 111 - TOR 121. Per Scott Hastings, Leonard is 14-0 in his last 14 games vs Denver, so there's that.

Toronto Raptors Roster

Denver Nuggets Roster

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Harris is probable with numerous ailments of lower extremities. Millsap is expected to play through knee soreness after banging kneecaps with PG13. Finally, Barton had successful surgery on his abductor and hip. He will be evaluated for return in mid-December. As for TOR, Monroe and Lowry return to action just in time to face the Nuggets. Terrific! No other injuries have been reported at Raptors HQ.

Re-up: No bullshit, that fun fact about mice (plural) on the CN Tower, otherwise known as the most Canadian thing you've ever read, was found on the internet so it's obviously true. Those poor mice who had to be hoisted up to test this! They must have been shaking in their little moose britches! I've searched but failed to locate information on what happened once one too many mice were placed on the deck. No reports of moose injuries or even those of the metropolitan bystanders below. Truly a fascinating aspect of Canadian history that not enough people talk about.

Re-re-up: Fuck Tyler Bertuzzi and indeed all Bertuzzae!

__________________________________________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Data:

TPM™ Game 23 TOR

Jamal Murray: +19

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: -2

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Gary Harris: +0

Malik Beasley: +15

Torrey Craig: +4

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: N/A

Will Barton: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: +11

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +4

Trey Lyles: +1

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +36

Mason Plumlee: +8

Thomas Welsh: +ALL OF THE TPM!!!!!!!!

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 23 games +361

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 23 games +273

Brandon Goodwin: 0 Games +0

Gary Harris: 21 games +315

Malik Beasley: 23 games +99

Torrey Craig: 19 games +9

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 22 games +43

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 23 games +210

Trey Lyles: 23 games +177

Tyler Lydon: +7 games +9

Nikola Jokic: 23 games +454

Mason Plumlee: 23 games +167

Thomas Welsh: 4 games+2

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +15.70

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +11.87

Brandon Goodwin: +0.00

Gary Harris: +15.00

Malik Beasley: +4.30

Torrey Craig: +0.47

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.95

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.13

Trey Lyles: 7.70

Tyler Lydon: +1.29

Nikola Jokic: +19.74

Mason Plumlee: +7.26

Thomas Welsh: +0.55

__________________________________________________________________________________________

TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 20/21:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their second iteration of the post-Craig (RIP), injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Harris, Juancho, Millsap & Jokic. The Raptors counter with Lowry, Green, Leonard, Siakam & Ibaka. Kawhi spits into one cup and drinks from another as part of some pre-game ritual. I wonder how many times that's gone south. One bomb a piece and it's 3-3 at 10:30. Toronto is all perimeter while Denver is mixing things up as they lead 10-6 at 8:02. Millsap is struggling defensively with the quickness of Siakam early. Big Honey already has five assists as the Nuggets lead by two at 5:14. Leonard misses an easy layup which is obviously a foul on Millsap. Come on ref.

Morris is first off the pine at 4:51, trailing by two. Siakam earns his second foul at 4:01 and 'Sap cuts it to two from the line. Plumlee is in for 'Sap and the "Roman Column" front-court of Juancho, Jokic & Plumlee is in tact at 3:15 for only the second or third time this season. Jokic draws the second foul on OG and the Nuggets are in the bonus at 3:10. Denver now leads by three at 1:55 as Jokic already has a 4-4-7 line. The Rap's are going cold from distance and the Nuggets lead by three as Lyles/Beasley/Craig check in with less than a minute to go. OG is in foul trouble early, now with three penalties after his "BFP... big friggin' push" says Marlowe. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +13 as they lead 27-24 after one.

Qtr2- The bench squad for Denver is doin' work and they lead by four at 10:18. Lyles looks to have the home-land jitters tonight. He may as well have been born in another continent when you compare Saskatoon to Toronto and if anyone should be nervous it's the decidedly composed Kitchener native, Murray. To his credit, Jonas is doing an excellent job off the bench for Toronto and it's even-Steven at 33 with just under eight to go. I spoke too soon as Jonas has gone on an extended string of missing point-blank shots. Denver is ice-cold and they trail by two at 7:18, on the strength of an 8-0 run by the Raptors. Remarkably, no players for either squad have reached double figures in scoring yet. Gary Harris has (in my opinion aggravated) his right hip and will not return. Losing your leading scorer is obviously sub-optimal. Harris appeared to have gotten his leg tangled up and over-extended while in the air by one of the Raptors wings.

I don't even play a doctor in print but that had the look of a minor injury at the most and I've been saying for a while that he's been favoring his upper leg, which has gone almost entirely unreported. Perhaps I shoulda been a doctor...or an actual journalist. ?!?! Murray is FINALLY the first player for either team to reach double figures. Toronto is getting the favorable whistle on 100% of all 50-50 calls. Beasley drills one all the way from Degrassi High! (sad trombone sound... lap...go Patrick!) He is stepping up in the absence of Harris and his eight points have contributed to a five point lead for the good guys at 3:30. Jokic makes two in double figures and the Nuggets lead by seven on the strength of a 7-0 run. He's already got 9 assists to boot (South Park reference. Too subtle?) With just over 1.5 minutes to go, the time is NOW to remove Millsap and his two fouls Coach Malone. He disagrees as per always. Craig converts on his first ever three and Denver leads by 12 heading into the intermission. Jokic is most definitely on 3D watch with an incredible line of 12-4-9 on 6/7 shooting! Denver is paced in TPM by Beasley + 10, Murray +18 & Jokic +29 as they lead 59-47 at the half.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr3- The Blue Arrow had a vicious dunk to close out the first half and seemingly no one in the building applauded their native son. This has me wondering if Drake is on tour and the Raptors are instead represented by the angsty, Tom McDonald on this cold December evening. Craig, not Beasley is in there to start the 3rd for Harris. I disapprove. He reads this and immediately sticks his second three of his career. Toronto is playing with much more defensive... ahem... handsiness but Denver still leads by ten at 7:50. Juancho makes three in double figures for the Nuggets. The Joker is now just three boards shy of a 3D with 6:28 remaining; a triple double which seems inevitable on this night. Chris Dempsey, unlike yours truly, is a tad tongue-tied tonight. Not his A-game but his scoop is always on point so he's forgiven. The Rap's are heating up from distance and the lead is down to five at 5:01.

The Nuggets are struggling mightily in their secondary rotations at present, defensively. Marlowe just called Lowry a "tough little SOB" and I for one LOVE it! Denver has missed seven at the line and lead by just six at 3:50. Juancho has GOT to gain strength in his grip. It's far too easy to bat the ball out of his hands. Get a grip young man. Leonard is now guarding Big Honey, illustrating just one reason why he's the best defender in the league. Beasley makes four in double digits for the Nuggets, who are in the bonus with 1:39 remaining. Denver is showcasing some of their newfound defensive acumen and they increase the lead to 11 with less than a minute to go. This has not been the best night for Monte in terms of closing out on shooters. No players for either squad are in any sort of serious individual foul trouble. Denver is paced in TPM by Juancho +10, Beasley + 12, Murray +19 & Jokic +34 as they lead 86-78 after three.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Qtr4- The Nuggets lead Toronto in second chance points by an astonishing 23-2 margin, according to Katy Winge. Lowry/Leonard rest to start the fourth and it's time to make this scoring margin unmanageable upon their return. Reading right along, "The one time Canadian" (sayeth Marlowe) Lyles drains a three. Murray is as cold now as he was hot in the early third. It's amazing how streaky this kid still is and how one miss can so easily lead to several / vice-versa. Denver might be wise to deploy an Ivory tower lineup featuring Plumlee and Jokic as a closing group tonight. The lead is down to one on the strength of a 10-0 run for Toronto, the opposite of what should occur with their two stars on the bench. Jonas earns his fifth foul on a three attempt by Morris at 7:14. Toronto's coach who's name I still don't know has earned a T but the crowd is now palpably engaged in this one. Murray hits the T and Morris follows it up with 2/3 badly needed conversions from the charity stripe, as the starters filter back in at this point for the Nuggets, with a four point lead. Only Morris remains in from the bench squad which normally I'd advocate for but Defense is far more essential in this one. The Denver lead is just four as Jokic earns his second 3D on the year at 5:30. It must be pointed out that he'd have at least five more if not for being rested in the fourth quarter of blowouts. Toronto is 10-10 from the line and that is the primary reason they are in this one. Morris is struggling mightily in the second half. I'm not certain what exactly these officials are watching but they are missing calls on both ends for both teams as my pre-game nightmare scenario seems likely; a tight one going down to the wire. It's knotted up at 94 with 4:40 remaining.

Beasley is in for the ineffective Morris on a rare off-night for Denver's backup point guard. Murray has SEVEN turnovers for the Nuggets. That he and Morris are both struggling is a testament to Lowry's immense value. The Nuggets lead by just one with 2:10 to go and they are pressing offensively. Their defense however has been excellent in the second half of the fourth period. What a game! Denver can be expected to go offense/defense down the stretch in their substitution pattern. Leonard hits a J to give Toronto the lead with just 54 seconds remaining. Murray to Jokic on the P&R and Denver takes the lead with 40 seconds to go but this game is FAR from over. Denver's scrambling D forces two off-balance/hotly contested threes by Green and Juancho fights to collect the rebound with 12 seconds to go. He heads to the stripe and barely draws iron on the first before sticking the second. The good guys are up two with 12 seconds to go. Leonard shows precisely what I fear in this team as he calmly sticks a fade-away with seven seconds remaining in a tie game. If Denver doesn't hold for a shot at the buzzer I'll pull out my dog's hair. Worry not, she has alopecia and I'll get her propecia. Apparently the memo on Gary Glitter's... ahem... habits... has yet to reach Canada as Rock & Roll part II loudly blares through the (insert corporate sponsor) arena speakers. Ibaka commits a boneheaded error in fouling Jokic prior to the inbound and Big Honey hits the free throw. Now Denver gets to inbound with a one point lead. They do so to Jokic who makes an impossible three that won't count as it was long after the contact, sending him back to the line where he calmly drills two. Denver leads by three with less than six seconds to go. Toronto has no timeouts. Lowry misses a three at the buzzer and this one is ova! Take off you hosers! I mean that in the most respectfully cordial, almost Canadian manner possible. It's the beauty way to go. Denver is paced in TPM by Juancho +11, Beasley + 15, Murray +19 & Jokic +36 as they win a thriller in Ontario,106-103

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Final Thoughts: This Nuggets team loses this game AND the last, in any of the preceding ten seasons, perhaps more. Also, Fuck Tyler Bertuzzi.

___________________________________________________________________________________________

The Nuggets Win!

Denver Nuggets Nuggets vs Raptors coverage Raptors HQ