Two definite answers. Many questions remain.

Zion who?

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, Harris and Millsap. Could Jamal be joining them in the infirmary?

Nuggets vs Suns: Hold my beer, I'm suiting up!

When last these two teams squared off in game 2 of this season, there was bad news, worse news and crazy good news. Lots of news. The really bad news was that it was the game in which they lost starting SF Will Barton. The comparatively inconsequential bad news was that three players were in the TPM red led by Monte Morris: -7. The good news is that the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players. Even this minor side-note is tempered with bad news, in that three of the four (Murray, Barton, Harris) are not likely to suit up tonight. The crazy good news was that the fourth, Big Honey Jokic set the TPM record with a +57 performance in their first encounter on his "perfect" 3D game, en route to a 119-91 victory. You got all that? There's a lot of a-linear timeline hopping, ala Bird Box (probably.) So much news!

In game two of the season I went off on a tangent about how uniquely fucked Phoenix and Denver are by the NBA schedule makers and you can seethe along with me here if you are so inclined.

As for this game, there is a very real possibility that Denver, who came into the year with the above pictured starting five will tonight go with 2nd year pros getting their first meaningful burn this season, Morris and Craig, third year pro getting HIS first meaningful burn in Juancho, third year pro and super-slumping Trey Lyles and The Joker. Think about that. The primary reason to move Plumlee to the bench would be because of the lack of healthy bodies to field a competitive unit. The aforementioned reserves tonight might be limited to Plumlee, seldom used first/second year players Lydon, Welsh & Goodwin and break glass in case of emergency player Nick Young.

Due to injury exemption Denver has 18 people on their roster rather than the traditional 15 with two in the G-League. The Nuggets obviously can't afford to allocate any players to the G-League so as it stands they actually have an 18 man roster, eight of which are out of commission! Preposterous, that.

As for Phoenix, they've been showing signs of life as of late, winners in five of their previous eight games, including a victory over Boston. Booker and Ayton have formed a formidable duo and this team finally has a foundation upon which to build, including a high lottery pick in the upcoming draft so the future will be bright in the valley of the sun. Ayton is the only player in this past year's draft who can make a case for being chosen ahead of Doncic and the two will likely be compared throughout their career.

Too much is working against the Western Conference leading, second youngest and by far most injured team in the NBA, the Denver Nuggets. I don't foresee them overcoming this absurd amount of injuries to rotational players and starters on a B2B, on the road, vs a team playing it's best ball of the season. I expect the recycling unit to be game and competitive, but ultimately Phoenix seeks a measuring stick victory tonight and earns it.

Prediction: Denver 107- Suns 109.

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well as CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Phoenix Suns Roster

Denver Nuggets Roster

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Harris is due to return any day from numerous ailments of lower extremities. Millsap had his first full practice on December 26th but is not rushing back (though clearly ahead of schedule.) Murray is "banged up" everywhere; specifically with a bone bruise of the right shin as well as a right forearm injury (after the second game vs San Antonio you can go ahead and add twisted as fuck ankle to the list) but he's tough as nails and likely gutting it out. Barton had successful surgery on his abductor/hip and is week to week (whatever that means.) Add Beasley to the mix (why the fuck not?) with a sprained ankle but he's a mutant so he may not miss any time. As for PHO, You guessed it... fully healthy.

Re-Up: Yes I realize Phoenix' roster has changed since the first encounter and frankly my dear, I don't give a damn.

Re-Re-Up: Murray and Beasley are both giving it a go and The Anchorman is back bitches! That escalated quickly (his recovery from a broken toe in less than two weeks, that is.)

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Data:

TPM™ Game 34 PHO

Jamal Murray: +53

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12

Brandon Goodwin: N/A

Nick Young: N/A

Gary Harris: Injured

Malik Beasley: +10

Torrey Craig: +7

Will Barton: Injured

Juancho Hernangomez: +1

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: +8

Trey Lyles: +1

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +30

Mason Plumlee: +6

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 34 games +601

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 34 games +428

Brandon Goodwin: 4 games +17

Nick Young: 3 games -2

Gary Harris: 21 games +315

Malik Beasley: 34 games +200

Torrey Craig: 29 games +5

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 33 games +53

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 27 games +246

Trey Lyles: 34 games +190

Tyler Lydon: 11 games +8

Nikola Jokic: 34 games +674

Mason Plumlee: 34 games +237

Thomas Welsh: 8 games +17

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +17.68

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.59

Brandon Goodwin: +4.25

Nick Young: -0.67

Gary Harris: +15.00

Malik Beasley: +5.88

Torrey Craig: +0.17

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.61

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.11

Trey Lyles: 5.43

Tyler Lydon: +0.73

Nikola Jokic: +19.82

Mason Plumlee: +6.97

Thomas Welsh: +2.13

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 32:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their 7th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Craig, Juancho, Plumlee & Jokic. The Suns counter with Melton, Booker, Bridges, Warren & Ayton. "Mutant" Malik Beasley went and earnt himself a new nickname by not missing any time after that ugly ankle injury in last night's game. Phoenix immediately doubles Jokic which leads to a wide open three for Jamal. As was the case last night, Denver registers an early three in which every player earns TPM points. The score is Jokic/Murray 8, PHO zero at 10:10. The Blue Arrow, with the stocking stuffer vs Ayton and Jamal is showing no signs of his numerous injuries thus-far. The Nuggets are careless on their post entry passes tonight and the lead is down to six at the time of the first intermission at 6:29. Jokic is already a +12 in TPM and he obviously enjoys playing against this Suns Squad.

Murray/Plumlee are exhibiting a nice chemistry with one another early. Ayton needs to do some hand-grip exercises. Get a grip rook! The Nuggets are "carving up" the Suns now, sayeth Marlowe and the lead is 14 at 3:44 as 'Sap checks in! Morris and then Beasley are soon to follow. Murray is first to reach double digits and he already has 13 points on 4/6, 3/4, 2/2 shooting. Wouldn't it be nice to put this one away early and allow players to rest / Millsap to get in the flow? Fat will give us the skinny later as to his choice for the greatest center picked first overall, all time (aka the greatest center ever, essentially.) Lyles is in at 2:45 with a 16 point lead. He immediately hits one with his toes tantalizingly tickling the trifecta, for two. Malik is on a streak, says Fat and he's also showing no ill effects of a badly twisted ankle last night. Fat is looking like a profit as Beasley bombs his second in a row from downtown and the Nuggets lead by 21 with under a minute to go! Denver is paced in TPM by Plumlee +10, Murray +12 & Jokic +16 as they are up big after one of their finest periods of the season, 36-16 after one.

Qtr2- I just have a feeling I'm going to be saying something about Booker here. Well he has seven points to lead the Suns, so... there?!?! Monte is uncharacteristically cold tonight so it's a good thing that no one else is. The Mutant is now 3-4 from beyond the arc and he makes two in double digits, as Denver leads by 24 at 9:15. Murray has an extremely impressive line of 18-4-4 as Denver leads by 25 at 7:41. Morris is so Impressive; his shot not true tonight so he's finding open men and playing stellar on-the-ball D. To his credit, Ayton is starting to make noise in the P&R, yielding some pretty easy looks for the impressive young big man. Wilt Chamberlain, ladder or no ladder is Marlowe's pick between The Stilt and The Joker and we'll let it slide just this once. Beasley is now 5-7 from downtown!

The Nuggets have been lackadaisical in getting back defensively in transition if I'm to be uber-picky. Ayton has all 18 points for Phoenix this quarter! He's going to be a problem for years to come. The lead is still 21 with 3:45 remaining. Craig nabs his third foul and he checks out at 3:04, replaced by the mutant superhero they call Threasley. Ayton ties Jamal for top scoring honors at 21 (20 in this period alone!) Phoenix cuts it to 14 as Big Honey is boycotting defense again. Turnovers are beginning to be a very real problem for the good guys and this is becoming a game, as a result. Denver is paced in TPM by Morris/Beasley +12, Jokic +13 & Murray +25 as they lead 62-49 at the half.

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Qtr3- Plumlee is having an off night on both ends and I hope to see The Anchorman open the third period for Denver. Not so, as Mason is immediately scored upon by Warren. Make that twice in a row with the second a rare three from TJ. The Joker is on 3D watch with a line of 10-6-5 as he becomes the third player to reach double digits. Murray is still feeling it, something that often dissipates after a hot first half and Denver leads by 19 again at the time of the initial intermission at 8:15. Clearly, the Nuggets need to mix twisted ankles into their practice regimen. Booker is starting to get awfully handsy out there on D.

Immediately after I typed that he issues an unnecessarily hard foul on a Craig break-away. No place for that in the game Booker, you're better than that. The lead is 23 at 3:41 in favor of the gold guys. Phoenix must have been instructed to get physical as they are already in the penalty at 5:22. In 30 shots made, Denver has 24 assists which is obviously optimal. The Nuggets are once again getting careless with the ball and the lead is cut to 17 at 3:23. Lyles gets in on the fumbling and bumbling act and it's down to 16, on the strength of a 9-2 scoring run by Phoenix. The two teams trade two's for several series and the lead is down to 12 again with seconds remaining. Denver is paced in TPM by Beasley/Morris +10, Craig +11, Jokic +20 & Murray +37 as they lead 90-78 after three.

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Qtr4- The Blue Arrow now has a career high eight bombs converted on 8-10 shooting! Millsap appears to be gaining traction in terms of getting to the places in which he's at his best on the offensive side of the ball and Denver increases the lead to 19 at 10:15. Denver is turning up the heat on the Suns defensively. The Nuggets are first to 100, so they win. Murray and Jokic are indeed balling tonight (both with an outside shot at a 3D) so Katy Winge's pre-game NBA jam shirt was in fact a wardrobe function. Three straight turnovers and the lead is down to 14 with 8:10 to go. Jokic nearly has a 2D with a 16-7-9 line. Craig nabs his fifth foul but remains in at 5:56. It should have been a non-call but his foul pace has been terrible these last two games. Murray has 40 for the second time this year / in his career. The lead is 13 with 4:33 to go. Make that 43 for The Blue Arrow. Both teams will be in the bonus with their next respective foul at 3:19. Craig obliges and fouls out on a phantom call vs Booker. The lead is just nine as the hobbling Beasley is forced to check in at this time.

Phoenix has all the momentum and are on the receiving end in the benefit of the whistle as a result and the lead is now seven with 3:05 to go. It would be wise to have Morris handle the ball and let Murray play off the ball from here on out. I'm not sure why the Nuggets don't recognize this. The crowd is fired up after Bridges sticks a three and it's down to a three point lead! Murray hits two from the charity stripe giving him 45 points and the Nuggets a five point lead. The lead is down to four with 26 seconds remaining as Phoenix deploys the foul strategy. Juancho makes four in double figures. A spirited effort by the Suns but this baby is ova! Murray finishes two points shy of a career high with 46 points, accompanied by 6 rebounds and 8 assists and of course I left him on my fantasy bench. Denver goes 19-23 from the line. Did Fat Lever ever reveal who the best center was? Was it Blair Rasmussen? Denver is paced in TPM by Beasley +10, Morris +12, Jokic +30 & Murray with a career high +53 as they win 122-118 in Arizona.
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Final Thoughts: That was fun. Lets never do it again. Murray's TPM score increased by more than a full point, his shooting percentage by an entire percentage point and his three point shooting percentage by an unfathomable three percentage points! Well if that isn't the most Jamal Murray thing you've ever read, please tell me what is (gifs are entirely acceptable.) This game will of course be remembered as "Juancho's perfect night." I mean he didn't miss from any of the three zones.

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The Nuggets Win!

For context with regard to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

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