After all these years, Gasol & Conley still represent the Jaws & Claws of this season's Bear attack.

And this match-up of similarly skilled big men remains the focal point.

Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, who seems to be in a best case time-frame in terms of returning from an injury that required surgery. He should be back in the lineup by around December 15th.

For context with regard to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

A brief statement with regard to this piece on whole:

As a means to avoid repeating myself I will include this descriptive diatribe in all TPM posts going forward.

Sure I like statistics; ever since I was a child collecting sports cards and later a pre-teen who ran pre-internet fantasy sports leagues on ink/paper/spreadsheet for the four major US pro-leagues, I've been fascinated by box-score stats but I'm by no means an expert.

I created TPM (which has been around longer than RPM incidentally and unlike them, I fully disclose my non-proprietary system and I contextualize the action rather than being a boring, mysterious, predictive metric) because it does add immediate and accessible context to what we see and what the numbers indicate, which I like.

While the data is meticulously tracked and demonstrably sound, I'm a creative type, not an engineer. Algorithm is the bane of my existence in fact. I'd far rather approach life with the intrigue of expected surprise than attempt to get to the bottom of why things are the way they are. There are many engineers in my family so I totally understand that joy can be derived from finding solutions to problems, I just can't relate. It's not fun for me. THIS is for the most part, not fun for me.

Now I'm a 41 year old man who was born the year after the team I love joined the NBA. I happen to have a lifetime of experience with this sport in several different capacities, including playing (highly underrated within the writing community) so I understand basketball theory in a way most (by no means all) pundits do not.

I was in this case interested in a data-driven approach, which if I'm honest has sapped nearly all fun out of taking in games for me. I get very few days/nights off during the season. One piece requires several hours of research and data entry and all tracking/analysis is done in real time and published mere moments after each game's completion, 82 times (more this season) per year.

As such, the analysis portion is about 90% (I've run the numbers) creative writing with sarcasm generally indicated through italics, non-sequitur humor and hyperbole, in an attempt to steal back some of the joy this endeavor has snatched away.

Hopefully there is a little something here for everyone but if you came just for data or are averse to colorful language, this is not the place for you. I have no way of knowing how many people even read this so I'll not be affected even remotely if you choose not to indulge. For those of you who do, I greatly thank you for the support.

Nuggets vs Memphis: The solution to all of life's mysteries = Swaggy P

or

Jamal Murray scouting report edition.

When last these two teams squared off in game 11 of this season, the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from three players led by Jamal Murray: +21. Three players were also in the red for that encounter led by Paul Millsap: -6, as the Nuggets did all they could to hand a key road victory away and eventually accomplished this goal, in an ugly 87-89 defeat in Tennessee.

As for this game, Since they have played once this year I'm going to do things slightly different. If you want info about this Memphis team please feel free to check out my previous piece on them from game 11, here.

Jamal Murray Scouting Report:

I've had some thoughts percolating with regard to Jamal Murray and his shooting/defensive issues. In my mind it boils down to three key aspects and the good news is all three are reparable with standard, theory-based-fundamental-implementation, game-film and reps. They are:

Shooting/missing off balance jumpers and floaters.

Failing to make solid entry passes into the post.

Failing to stay in front of opposing guards at the point of attack.

That is not to say that these are the only issues but they are three areas of concern that should he make a gainful dent in their negativity, a confidence player like Murray should see most if not all tertiary factors (defensive head-turning, unfocused dribbling amidst pressure, unfocused passing, getting caught between shooting and passing in the P&R, missing or failing to attempt open shots etc) fall by the wayside.

Not to stray from topic too much but his countryman Lyles is similar in this regard in that when their offensive game is flowing and they are simply in the zone rather than overthinking, their defensive instincts tend to be more immediate; their actions more sound, where they are just reacting, with the added bonus that fatigue is also mitigated by the chemistry involved by achieving said zone. It's a very real though entirely immeasurable phenomena.

While I'm no expert, I was an effective 3&D PG in my playing days and while streaky in my shooting at first, I was able to eventually hone in on the mechanics involved as a means to more readily find the zone, so this is certainly in my wheelhouse.

Let's start off with a short player profile for Jamal:

NBA Comparison: Ceiling- Steph Curry. Floor - Ben Gordon

Strengths: Focus. Intensity. Competitive spirit. Surprising athleticism in bursts. Solid strength with plenty of room to grow. Shooting form. Edge. Work ethic. Deadly scorer while in the zone. Solid off-ball play on offense including movement and setting solid screens. Steadily increasing PG level passing and offensive guidance. Very good defensive rebounder. Toughness (ability to play through pain.) Drive to be THE best, not just amongst the best. Archery. Meditation (only half kidding there.)

Weaknesses: Youth/inexperience. In-between size/speed for the two guard positions. Inexperience as a PG/floor general. Not a vocal leader. Inability to find the zone consistently. Has yet to show killer instinct as a pro. Point-of attack defense. Made fun of my LSU Chris Jackson jersey.

Now let's address the three above issues:

Shooting/missing off balance jumpers and floaters: The idea here is not to eliminate taking off-balance shots all together. Sure, You'd prefer to always be square and in your own individual natural flow when attempting a shot but shooters with excellent form such as Jamal need to be able to take and make off balance shots as if they are perfectly balanced. Especially in clutch situations, it's a requirement of the action.

Former Nugget Nick Van Exel was amongst the very best off-balance shooters I've ever seen as no matter where he shot from or how, he had the ability to make last-moment corrections on his shot to account for all of the moving parts involved. This is the key.

Shooting is nowhere near as simple as it looks but it needs to feel that way in order to be consistent. It's a lot like breaking an addiction (something I also know all too much about unfortunately) in that regard. In reality there are so many counter-balances of leverage occurring in every appendage, the core, with vision and with regard to how a player is defended so the final check and balance to the action comes down to fingertip control of the touch. In a fraction of a fraction of a second, a shooter has to be able to make adjustments in the wrist's propulsion and finally how the ball escapes the fingertips. Jamal is clearly not addressing this key component lately as his floaters and jumpers for the better part of the season, seldom "feel" like they are going in to me (nor it would seem, him) aside from when he's put a few in consecutively.

The way to hone in on this aspect of shooting so that you are not thinking about it in game action is to have practice reps centered on tightly defended and or physically illegal defense while paying close attention to how the ball leaves first the wrist-lever and finally the fingertips. With enough attention to this aspect in practice (something the Nuggets have been short on of late due to the arduous road trip and lack of healthy bodies) while being careful not to compromise all other aspects of sound shooting mechanics, this eventually becomes second nature and the results of this correction should appear in his production.

Failing to make solid entry passes into the post.

The solution here is two-fold so that you have an ingrained counter move to utilize should plan-A not be available. As with the previous, the idea is to work this out in practice repetition and film so that it is not something that you have to think about in-game and muscle memory is instead at the wheel. The key to both is to retain the dribble until a sudden, concise and explosive pass is made so that a passer has a competitive advantage over the defender. I'll call them options A) and B) though either one could be appropriate depending on what is necessary in any given play.

A) Make a sudden sideways movement in the direction away from both your defender and that of the man you are passing to in the post, followed by a sudden two handed, sharp entry (usually on the bounce) which should be unobstructed. The reason this pass must be two handed is illuminated in the next part.

B) Have a counter move which is just as accurate and explosive but utilized less frequently, simply as a means to keep both defenders from knowing exactly what to expect.

A third or fourth entry action is not necessary as even the most savvy point-of-attack defenders know to relax if more than one entry is in a passers repertoire or they risk being caught on their heels by overplaying the pass, leading to blow-by's.

This secondary entry can be as simple as a seldom used direct entry (aka the only pass currently in Jamal's tool-kit, hence the issues) to catch the on-ball defender off guard or an occasional no-look entry which will have the same effect.

Only the VERY best perimeter defenders have an opponent's entry-pass tool-kit in their own defensive, mental-database and of them, as mentioned, when they encounter a passer with more than one entry they know to back off. Those defenders with less scouting-report savvy will already be caught off guard by the multiple entry options so they will either be on their heels defensively already or taking exploitable risks.

Defenders will occasionally luck into a deflection by overplaying the entry but the risks of doing so are far too exploitable to count on AND there is a counter to this which will eventually become second nature/muscle-memory as well.

The reason it is imperative to always use two hands on an entry pass (and indeed most passes as a rule, unless you are a Serbian wizard who fancies himself as the worlds tallest water polo player) is because then if a defender DOES gamble you can retract the pass which not only avoids the turnover but leads to a back door dunk or one for a cutting teammate if the rotational help defense is sound; a mismatch is inevitable by simple virtue of having two hands on the ball when passing.

Failing to stay in front of opposing guards at the point of attack.

Again this is two-pronged but not all of the solution is in the hands of Jamal. The larger part of it in fact is incumbent on his defensive teammates being vocal in directing the action he's unable to see; something that could prove difficult in implementation with defensive QB Paul Millsap out for the next month-plus. Let's start with what Jamal CAN control.

A) Defending the point of attack at this level is the most difficult area of defense to play for numerous reasons, without resorting to the always-detrimental head-turning. For one you are generally going against the fastest players who know exactly where they want to go so you are forced to react to their movement, inherently placing you as a defender behind them. Picture a corner back trying to stay in lock-step with a receiver for an analog.

The best way to mitigate this disadvantage is to know the scouting report on the opposing player so that you can angle your body in such a way that you are still between your man and the basket but diagonally-so, which forces a player to drive to their less dominant hand. Even if a player drives equally to both sides (they don't) this still serves to cut the options for a driver in half.

While players are for the most part ambidextrous at this level in terms of dribbling, every player has a preferred direction of attack and this can be absolutely cut off in this manner which places a defender only slightly behind but eliminates one entire half of the options available, in-turn cutting considerably into the inherent advantage of the attacking player.

Increasingly in today's NBA, players prefer to drive to their weak hand side so that the impending shot or pass will be transferred during the gather to their dominant hand (I was this way as a player as well, though that was largely due to the fact that we had a perpetual wood-pile blocking the right side of my driveway as a kid where I spent hours daily practicing.)

It's all a matter of studying the scouting report to know how to position the angle of your body diagonally, in a similar but more exaggerated stance to how free throws used to be taught, with one foot behind the other slightly. In this case the feet should be much more widely spread with the defender on the balls of his feet rather than flat-footed and angling at roughly 2/7 o'clock rather than 6/12, which gives the attacking player no option but to dribble in the other direction while the defender sacrifices only slightly the depth advantage with relation to the basket, by being more on the side than in front of the offensive player.

B) This will be a bigger challenge for the Nuggets with their lack of vocalization just in general but in particular on defense, even if they HAD the services of The Anchorman on D: A post player must position himself in such a way that he is between his man and the basket, with his eyes on the ball (for the record this should be AT ALL TIMES the default position for ALL defenders, utilizing peripheral vision so as to NEVER have to turn their head to either their man or the ball.)

In doing so, this post player can act as the eyes for the point-of-attack-defender who if he is playing soundly, will not be able to see the direction in which a screen is coming. This post player needs to loudly vocalize exactly where the screen or double screen is coming from (perhaps in a succinct, directional code assigned a letter and number if amount is applicable) as well as any counter moves should they arise. The POA™ defender CAN NOT turn to look as they are already focused on maintaining position A) which will take the entirety of their attention and even then, they will still fail the vast majority of the times. It is in stopping a small percentage more of these occasions, that games are won or lost and defenders are upgraded from average to above average or better (in reality that is, not by the deeply flawed, defensive advanced metrics.)

Please let me know if more theory topics are of interest and I'll see if I can't add them as they fit.

Prediction: Denver 101 - Memphis 107.

Go Nuggets!

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well s CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Memphis Grizzlies Roster

NO	Name	POS	Age	HT	WT	College	Salary
1	Kyle "The Yahoo Fantasy Bad Luck Charm" Anderson	SF	25	6' 9"	230 lbs	UCLA	$8,641,000
24	Dillon "The Chillin' Villain" Brooks	SG	22	6' 6"	220 lbs	Oregon	$1,378,242
8	MarShon "No Chill" Brooks	SG	29	6' 5"	200 lbs	Providence	$1,656,092
3	Jevon "Sp? #4" Carter	PG	23	6' 2"	196 lbs	West Virginia	$838,464
18	Omri "Resembles My Hebrew Buddy Rob" Casspi	SF	30	6' 9"	225 lbs	Israelia	$1,512,601
11	Mike "D" Conley	PG	31	6' 1"	175 lbs	Ohio State	$30,521,115
33	Marc "Mr Memphis" Gasol	C	33	7' 1"	255 lbs	Espana	$24,119,025
0	JaMychal "Christ Almighty" Green	PF	28	6' 9"	227 lbs	Alabama	$7,666,667
13	Jaren Jackson "Just J's" Jr.	PF	19	6' 11"	242 lbs	Michigan State	$5,915,040
6	Shelvin "Shaq" Mack	PG	28	6' 3"	203 lbs	Butler	$1,512,601
25	Chandler "Petrie Dish" Parsons	SF	30	6' 10"	230 lbs	Florida	$24,107,258
10	Ivan "The Terrible" Rabb	PF	21	6' 10"	220 lbs	California	$1,378,242
7	Wayne Selden "Used"	SG	24	6' 5"	230 lbs	Kansas	$1,544,951
20	DJ "Don't Judge My Horrible Nicknames tonight" Stephens	SG	27	6' 5"	188 lbs	Memphis	G-Money
17	Garrett "My Body Is An Amusement Park" Temple	SG	32	6' 6"	195 lbs	LSU	$8,000,000
12	Yuta "The Shoota" Watanabe	G	24	6' 9"	205 lbs	George Washington	G-Money

Denver Nuggets Roster

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Harris is out indefinitely with numerous ailments of lower extremities. Millsap is expected to play through knee soreness after banging kneecaps with PG13. Murray is "banged up". Barton had successful surgery on his abductor and hip. He is week to week (whatever that means.) Millsap suffered a broken toe, derailing what has been an excellent season and he'll like be out til the end of January minimum. Murray is a game time decision with multiple leg issues, most recently a deep shin bruise. As for MEM, Conley is likely with a finger injury, Brooks and Parsons are both out with knee injuries and I feel very sorry for the Grizz'.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 27 MEM

Jamal Murray: +18

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +18

Nick Young: N/A

Gary Harris: Injured

Malik Beasley: +0

Torrey Craig: +4

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: N/A

Will Barton: Injured

Juancho Hernangomez: -8

Michael Porter Jr.: Injured

Jared Vanderbilt: Injured

Paul Millsap: Injured

Trey Lyles: +4

Tyler Lydon: +0

Nikola Jokic: +15

Mason Plumlee: +6

Thomas Welsh: +0

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 27 games +443

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 27 games +326

Nick Young: 0 games +0

Gary Harris: 21 games +315

Malik Beasley: 27 games +133

Torrey Craig: 22 games -2

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 6 games +5

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 26 games +54

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 25 games +238

Trey Lyles: 27 games +169

Tyler Lydon: +8 games +9

Nikola Jokic: 27 games +531

Mason Plumlee: 27 games +188

Thomas Welsh: 5 games +2

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +16.41

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.07

Nick Young: N/A

Gary Harris: +15.00

Malik Beasley: +4.93

Torrey Craig: -0.09

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.83

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +2.08

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +9.52

Trey Lyles: 6.26

Tyler Lydon: +1.29

Nikola Jokic: +19.67

Mason Plumlee: +6.96

Thomas Welsh: +0.40

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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 23/21:

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their 7th iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Craig, Juancho, Plumlee & Jokic. The Grizzlies counter with Conley, Temple, Anderson, JJJ and Gasol. While I think inserting Plumlee is the correct move, it should be accompanied by Beasley replacing Craig. This group is going to cause serious paint congestion as Memphis is not required to honor the shooting of either Craig or Plumlee on offense (or anyone but Juancho at the moment for that matter) and the defensive differential between the far better floor-spacer Malik and Torrey is nominal if it exists at all. Far too much creation obligation falls upon two ice-cold shooters in this grouping; Jokic and Murray, with only Juancho currently considered a shooting threat. No bueno.

This predictably low-scoring affair sits at just 5-4 Denver at 7:20, as Gasol earns his second foul and must take a seat. It's Jokic 7 - Memphis 7 at 6:50. Morris/Lyles are first off the pine at 4:45. Memphis has already utilized more players (9) than Denver has available. Beasley is in at 4:01 with a two point lead. Juancho, with an excellent south-paw rejection leads to a wide-open three for Beasley in transition and the lead is up to eight at 3:12. Brooks is heating up for Memphis and they cut it to four as Lydon makes an appearance at 5.4 which is great to see. Jokic is the first player for the Nuggets to reach double figures. No players for either squad are in any sort of serious individual foul trouble. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +11 as they lead 26-22 after one.

Qtr2- Lyles looks lost & lonely as ever defensively and it's knotted up at 26, one and a half minutes into the period. Memphis has made nine straight shot attempts but Denver still leads by two at 8:52. Make it 10 straight... check that, 11... but Lyles is heating up for the good guys and Denver still leads by two at 7:46. A Murray-Craig alley-oop in transition gives the Nuggets a four point lead with 7:29 remaining. Memphis is in the penalty with 6:50 to go. Denver has made 6 straight FG attempts but Memphis' streak is still in tact with 11 at 6:21, before Conley finally misses one from distance. Make that seven in a row for Denver, who leads by four at 5:40. Jokic misses a three and I am finally freed of this OCD compulsion. We're taking step-back threes now Torrey? Really?

The lead is four with 2:50 to play in the half. A ref who's head was clearly pointed in the opposite direction, sees the Memphis player defending Jokic fall down in his periphery and chooses to make a horrendous offensive foul call on Jokic, rather than calling that which he actually witnesses occur. Things are getting chippy between Noah and Big Honey. Denver leads by eight at 1:05. Juancho is still scoreless, largely because he's the only perimeter player being defended. Marlowe is high as a kite and requests half-time monitoring from Hastings. Anderson just cold-cocked Murray who is writhing in pain, as Jokic throws an inbound pass into the hoop, which obviously doesn't count. Welsh, not Lydon is in there for the last 5 seconds (this could be a tricky one Dom.) No players for either squad are in any sort of serious individual foul trouble. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +12 & Jokic +17 as they lead 55-50 at the half.

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Qtr3- Juancho gets things underway with still another blocked shot leading to a transition layup for Craig. The young Spaniard then draws what is fast becoming his nightly foul on a three point attempt. He hits 2-3 at the charity stripe and loudly screams "fuck" upon missing the third. The Nuggets appear to be focused at the outset but the canned crowd is eerily silent. The refs seem to have left their whistles in the smoke room at halftime. No calls being made either way. Denver leads by one at 8:15 as they head into the initial break. It's even-Steven at 63 with 7:15 to play. Craig and Jokic are seen yelling demonstratively and don't appear to be on the same page with regard to rotations. The Nuggets are starting to struggle with their defensive rotations mightily as a whole and Memphis leads by six with three straight easy buckets at 6:43, on the strength of a 17-4 run. The biggest culprits in this department have been Jokic, Juancho and Murray and this has reflected in their TPM scores plummeting.

I swear that when I wrote about Nick The Quick in the pre-game I had no idear he was a coach for Memphis. Craig appears to have landed awkwardly, injuring his knee and he's replaced by Beasley. This is becoming hard to believe! Meanwhile, Conley is walking gingerly into the locker room for Memphis. There is zero apparent communication taking place on the defensive end for the Nuggets. Morris comes in and gets it going with five straight, giving Denver a two point lead on the strength of an 11-2 run. Memphis is in the penalty with 2:51 to go, trailing by two. Scott's dad-joke-pun-ery is not at all on point tonight. Another phantom call goes against The Joker with 1:25 remaining before he's able to check out. No players for either squad are in any sort of serious individual foul trouble. Denver is paced in TPM by Morris +12 as they lead 84-83 after three.

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Qtr4- We've got a ringer folks; Demps' steps in for the near-voiceless Marlowe on the play-by-play. A valiant effort by Marlowe, nonetheless. Hopefully he's hittin' the strong stuff. He's earned it. Chris Dempsey is heard saying "I can't hear", evidently not having pushed the mute button first. Memphis leads by one at 8:27 and once again it will take a near-perfect final stanza for the depleted Denver dudes to pull out the W. Oh ya, Plumlee and Morris make three in double figures. I skip analysis for one game while I care for my sick dog and I'm instantly an amateur again. The way Plumlee stands at the charity stripe is nearly the exact example of what I illustrated as proper on-ball defense in the pre-game. Denver has converted just two of their last 14 from beyond the arc and they trail by four at 6:58. Play on both ends is in a word, sloppy. I don't mean this as a dig in any way but this brand of basketball obviously favors the grind-it-out Grizzlies. Conley appears to be just fine as he's orchestrating the offense for Memphis.

Murray sticks two at the line so he's hot again. He makes four in double figures. A three by Morris gives him 20 points and Denver the one point lead. Murray follows it up with a three of his own and the Nuggets lead by four with 4:38 remaining. One good byproduct of Marlowe's early exit is that the dad-jokes have ceased as Hastings duties have been extended. Could Slow-Mo Anderson possibly play for a more appropriate team? The two man game with Big Honey and The Blue Arrow yields an easy give & go reverse layup and a five point cushion for the good guys. While struggling mightily in space defensively, likely due to energy expenditure on the other end, Jokic is leading this team with a line of 27-12-6. The Nuggets lead by five still with less than a minute to play. Time for the foul game and Denver seems to be in the driver's seat after a tough couple of outings. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +15, Murray/Morris +18 as they win 105-99 in the Mile High City.

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Final Thoughts: Jamal Murray is one tough hombre. Someone link my pre-game piece to him so we can get him right.
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The Nuggets Win!

Denver Nuggets Grizzlies vs Nuggets coverage Grizzly Bear Blues