FanPost

TPM™ 2018-'19 Game 20 vs Oklahoma City

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The always cordial Mr Westbrook welcomes a division rival to OKC.

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But keep an eye on the youngsters for the leagues second youngest team, the Denver Nuggets. This contest should be anything but PG13.

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Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, who seems to be in a best case time-frame in terms of returning from an injury that required surgery. He should be back in the lineup by around December 15th.

For context with regard to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

Nuggets vs OKC: With both division rivals on the second night of a B2B, this one could get x-rated fast.

When last these two teams squared off in game 76 of last season, the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from four players led by Paul Millsap: +27 and Nikola Jokic: +37. Two players were in the red for that encounter led by Torrey Craig: -7, en route to a keystone road victory in overtime, by a score of 126-125. Denver's aforementioned front court duo combined for 59 points, 25 boards and eight dimes on 24-40 (what?!?!?) shooting, to counteract the 33-9-13 put up by Westbrook & a sizable contribution from the since discarded Melo on what was an off night for PG13.

As for this game, OKC finds themselves in a veritable four way tie for first place in the West, while the Nuggets are a mere 1/2 game behind but all the way back in the five hole. This is going to be perhaps the most brutal, day-to-day jockeying for playoff position that one conference has seen in my lifetime (essentially since the Nuggets left the ABA for the NBA as I was born in '77.) The tenth place Pels find themselves just 2.5 games out of first place, for context.

This year's Thunder team is obviously led by the dynamic duo of PG13 and Westbrook, with valuable and incredibly under-rated contribution from one of the best big men in the league, in Steven Adams. Together, Paul/Russ average 24.0 PPG, 8.7 RPG & 6.7 APG on shooting percentages of 45/31/72 so while their numbers are great as always, the efficiency hasn't been there to this point, though I expect water to seek it's level by season's end, being the critically acclaimed and universally accepted statistician that I am.

In addition to Adams and with the addition-by-subtraction of Melo, OKC now has the well-above-average services of Dennis Schroeder this season, making them a much improved squad over last. Grant performs adequately in his 30+ minutes per game, while Abrines and Ferguson are capable in their roughly 20 and that's basically what you get from the Thunder. It's worth mentioning that Patterson does a nice job defensively against Big Honey so that is something else to watch for.

Last night we saw Thomas Welsh throw his hat back into the rookie of the year ring and we can expect the campaign to begin picking up steam in earnest.

The Denver Nuggets have historically always found a way to rope you in with a solid stretch of games, only to let you down in a massive way and I expect this to be a check mark in the latter column as opposed to the former. The Joker may or may not win the battle but in the end I expect the dynamic duo to emerge victorious. What am I saying? Denver almost never loses when Jokic feels like playing so ya, I predict Jokic to lay an egg tonight. Anywho...

Prediction: Denver (lap) 103 - OKC 117

Go Nuggets!

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

There be monsters; shameless, personal plug alert! (by permission of Denver Stiffs): If you are in the market for clothing, featuring the four major Denver sports franchises as well s CU, please open this link in a new tab to see if there is anything you are interested in. You don't have to order from the link of course if you are in the Denver Metro area, as I'm more than happy to meet up with you (please refrain from bringing rotten tomatoes), drastically lowering the cost, as Poshmark takes a healthy cut as well as shipping & handling. Thanks in advance!

Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Oklahoma City Thunder Roster

Coach: Billy "Mellow Yellow" Donovan

NO Name POS Age HT WT College Salary
8 Alex "Albatross" Abrines SG 25 6' 6" 200 lbs Parts Unknown (RIP Tony Bourdain) $5,455,236
12 Steven "I Eat Hobbits For 2nd Breakfast" Adams C 25 7' 0" 265 lbs Pittsburgh $24,157,303
30 Deonte "LaVar" Burton G 24 6' 5" 245 lbs Iowa State G-Money
34 "X-Rated" Tyler Davis C 21 6' 10" 266 lbs Texas A&M
G-Money
6 "I Dunno But Maybe" Hamidou Diallo SG 20 6' 5" 198 lbs Kentucky $838,464
2 Raymond "Insert Fat Joke" Felton PG 34 6' 1" 205 lbs North Carolina $1,512,601
23

Terrance "Thunder From Down Under " Ferguson

SG 20 6' 7" 190 lbs Australia $2,118,840
13 Paul "PG13" George SF 28 6' 9" 220 lbs Fresno State $30,560,700
9 Jerami "(Sp?) #5" Grant SF 24 6' 9" 220 lbs Syracuse $8,653,847
7 Timothe "Either A Wine OR A Strip-Joint" Luwawu-Cabarrot SG 23 6' 6" 210 lbs Francais (probably) $1,544,951
11 Abdel "Ralph" Nader SF 25 6' 6" 225 lbs Iowa State $1,378,242
3 Nerlens "Never-Nude" Noel PF 24 6' 11" 220 lbs Kentucky $1,757,429
54 Patrick "Pat-Pat" Patterson PF 29 6' 9" 230 lbs Kentucky $5,451,600
21 Andre "Too Soon" Roberson SG 26 6' 7" 210 lbs Colorado $10,000,000
17 "NC-17" Dennis Schroder PG 25 6' 1" 172 lbs Deutchland $15,500,000
0 Russell "Rocky Horror" Westbrook PG 30 6' 3" 200 lbs UCLA $35,654,150

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

NO Name POS
Age
HT
WT
College
Salary
23 DeVaughn "DAP" Akoon-Purcell SG 25 6' 6" 200 lbs Illinois State G-money
5 Will "The People's Champion" Barton SG 27 6' 6" 190 lbs Memphis $11,830,358
25 Malik "The Beas knees" Beasley SG 21 6' 5" 195 lbs Florida State $1,773,840
3 Torrey "FUCKING" Craig SF 27 6' 7" 215 lbs USC Upstate $2,000,000
14 "Just" Gary Harris SG 24 6' 4" 210 lbs Michigan State $16,517,857
41 Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez PF 23 6' 9" 230 lbs Espana $2,166,360
15 Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic
C 23 7' 0" 250 lbs Gotham $24,605,181
20 Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon PF 22 6' 10" 225 lbs Syracuse $1,874,640
7 Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles PF 22 6' 10" 234 lbs Kentucky $3,364,249
4 Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap PF 33 6' 8" 246 lbs Louisiana Tech $29,230,769
11 "Meanwhile" Monte "Rose" Morris PG 23 6' 3" 175 lbs Iowa State $1,349,383
27 Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray PG 21 6' 4" 207 lbs Kentucky $3,499,800
24 Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee PF 28 6' 11" 235 lbs Duke $12,917,808
1 Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr. PF 20 6' 10" 210 lbs Missouri $2,894,160
0 Isaiah "Ice" Thomas PG 29 5' 9" 185 lbs Washington $1,512,601
8 Jarred "Macadamia Nut? I Dunno" Vanderbilt PF 19 6' 9" 214 lbs Kentucky $838,464
45 Thomas "Irvine" Welsh C 22 7' 0" 255 lbs UCLA G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Harris is questionable with numerous ailments of lower extremities. Finally, Barton had successful surgery on his abductor and hip. He will be evaluated for return in mid-December. As for OKC, Colorado's own Andre Roberson is still recovering from knee surgery, while Diallo & Ferguson are both out with bad ankles.

Re-up: Harris is out which I am a fan of if it is simply a calculated risk at getting him thee days in a row to rest; not a fan if it means an injury worse than what met the eye is at play.

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Data:

TPM™ Game 20 OKC

Jamal Murray: +34

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +8

Gary Harris: N/A

Malik Beasley: +0

Torrey Craig: +8

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: N/A

Will Barton: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: -5

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +8

Trey Lyles: +11

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +10

Mason Plumlee: +9

Thomas Welsh: +ALL OF THE TPM!!!!!!!!

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 20 games +307

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 20 games +246

Gary Harris: 19 games +291

Malik Beasley: 20 games +75

Torrey Craig: 15 games +1

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 5 games +0

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 19 games +29

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 20 games +169

Trey Lyles: 20 games +173

Tyler Lydon: 6 games +4

Nikola Jokic: 20 games +376

Mason Plumlee: 20 games +135

Thomas Welsh: 4 games+2

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +15.35

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.30

Gary Harris: +15.32

Malik Beasley: +3.75

Torrey Craig: +0.07

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.00

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +1.53

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +8.45

Trey Lyles: 8.65

Tyler Lydon: +0.67

Nikola Jokic: +18.80

Mason Plumlee: +6.75

Thomas Welsh: +0.55

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TPM Per-Minute Splits Through Game 11: TPM-2018-2019-Game-11.0.png

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*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their third iteration of the injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Murray, Craig, Juancho, Millsap & Jokic. The Thunder counter with Schroeder, Westbrook, and the presidential front-court of George, Grant and Adams. I'm not at all a fan of Craig starting which essentially allows Westbrook to spend nearly all of his allotted energy on offense. Beasley would have been an improvement, or vs a team playing two PG's why not Morris? Because the Frenchman (probably) with the long hyphenated name starts, not Schroeder, that's why! The thing is, this was in reaction to Malone's starting Craig so... Yes Chris, Juancho is not only a mouthful, he's THE Mouthful. Jokic is struggling to put a fork in it early. The OKC crowd finally sits at 9:15 as the Thunder score, tying this low scoring affair at two. Don't look now critics but the still exceedingly young Murray is looking more and more like a point guard lately.

OKC leads 8-6 as they head into the first break of the night at 6:36. Juancho keeps turning his head defensively and OKC seems to never fail in finding the man he's "defending." Plumlee and Morris are first off the pine for the Nuggets at 3:50. 'Sap is down and holding his knee. It appeared to be kneecap to kneecap contact as opposed to something twisty but I don't even pretend to play a doctor in print. Beasley is in at 3:40 and he's the immediate victim of a three point play the old fashioned way, courtesy of Russ. Lyles is also in. Surprisingly, by far the least effective of all players thus-far in the game for Denver, Juancho, is the only starter that remains in. Beasley earns his second foul as the Nuggets lead by four at 1:40. Good news, as I alluded to it is just a bruise on the kneecap for 'Sap. Juancho is acquitting himself with two late threes for the good guys, though he'd be wise not to smack Lyles in the kisser when protesting a non-call. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +7 as they lead 33-23 after one.

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Qtr2- The Nuggets bench squad is predictably getting the better of their OKC counterparts. Murray has had a number of fantastic assists in the last 2.5 games. Clearly the Thunder bench squad has not watched much film of Plumlee on defense. He's gotten back to back sensational blocks. The lead is 11 at the time of the first break in the second quarter at 8:18. Lyles is first in the double figure club for Denver at 6:45 with a 12 point lead. The starters are in tact for the Nuggets at 5:15 with a 13 point lead.

They seem to be more energized after watching the bench unit do work and they quickly increase the spread to 20! OKC can not buy one from the arc. Murray makes two in double digits for Denver. Jokic has zero confidence in his shot lately so it's damned good that everyone else seems to be regaining theirs. The lead for the Nuggets is 23 with under a minute to go as Juancho fouls PG-13 on a three attempt. For the eleventy brazillianth time in his tenure, Malone again leaves a starter with two fouls in to earn his third, this time Millsap. The Nuggets are paced in TPM by Lyles/Jokic +11 & Murray +15 as they lead 63-42 at the half.

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Qtr3- The Nuggets decide that a two man game featuring Juancho and Craig would be a good idear. It predictably results in a turnover. Jokic earns two ticky-tac fouls in quick succession and that is why he can't take the silly ones. He remains in with four. In a move that makes little to no sense, even though it's the correct call (if late), he's soon replaced by Plumlee. Juancho makes three in double figures as Denver leads by 22 after his 4 point play. He follows that up with an excellent block of an off-balance PG-13 shot, which ricochets off of George and out of bounds. The lead is 20 at the time of their first break in the third period, at 7:43. OKC is picking up the defensive intensity out of necessity. Craig blocks the bejesus out of a Westbrook layup and I take back all of the bitter things I've said. Westbrook is FINALLY called for one of his numerous reaches. He's hurt on the play which you hate to see.

You can say what you want about his personality but there is no denying his superior competitive nature. He looks to be alright which is obviously optimal. Plumlee makes four in double digits for the Nuggets. The lead is 18 at 4:24. To their credit, OKC is forcing Denver to take far too many shots at the tail end of the shot clock. The Thunder cut it to 13 on a Schroeder three and they have the momentum and the crowd on their side. Westbrook and PG-13 may not sit at all this half so the Nuggets need to weather the Thunder storm (sad trombone sound... lap.) For whatever reason (I suspect the loud crowd) the refs are reluctant to call any fouls on the highly handsy OKC squad. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +10, Lyles +12 & Murray +25 as they lead 79-66 after three.

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Qtr4- The Thunder has elected to begin the fourth sans Westbrook. PG-13 remains in and quickly earns a T for protesting a foul call. OKC has two quick team fouls which is worth monitoring. The lead is down to nine on a PG-13 three at 10:12. The Nuggets have gone ice cold and it's nervous time. Lyles with a three point play vs PG-13! Just what the doctor ordered, that. Big Honey is 0-6 from beyond the arc. PG-13 nabs his 5th foul which could be huge, at 8:30 (the fourth team foul) in a 10 point game. Denver is in the bonus with 6:46 to play, up by 12. Jokic makes five in double figures. At this point Westbrook is shooting specifically to draw fouls and the refs aren't falling for it. The Nuggets lead is 14 after a three by Murray! Malone has elected to play Morris rather than Juancho to close things out which in my opinion is wise. No sooner did I type that than he elects to swap those two players out for one another, as if reading along, bitterly. Juancho proceeds to surrender a PG-13 three as Craig hunts for his shoe for roughly the ninth time tonight.

The Joker looks dead tired despite sitting so much in the second half with foul trouble. His conditioning is becoming a major issue. Plumlee is in for him with 3:24 remaining and a nine point lead. A three by Grant cuts it to six and Malone is burning through his timeouts while obsessing over defense rather than allowing them to play free-flowing offense in an attempt to score more points than the opposition. You can't defend two superstars for 48 minutes. No one can. Jokic is operating almost exclusively from the arc where he's a non threat at the moment, as a result. They need him at the elbow orchestrating the offense, something that is difficult to do when each and every call comes from the sideline and takes time off the shot clock. Denver leads by seven after a offensive rebound and put-back by Craig at 1:06. Plumlee gets what may be a game sealing steal. Juancho is fouled and hits two and the fans are headed for the exits. This one is ova! Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +10, Lyles +11 & Murray +34 as they earn a huge road victory to remain undefeated in both ends of all three B2B games on the year, 105-98.

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Final Thoughts: That motion picture was generously rated R. One beautiful, ugly road win! Best performance of Torrey Craig's NBA career and it's not even close. The gamble to rest Harris and give him three days off worked. B2B tremendous games from tonight's MVP, The Blue Arrow.

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The Nuggets Win!

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