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TPM™ 2018-'19 Game 18 vs Minnesota

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And then there were two.

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Caption contest. Go!

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Keepin' the seat warm for Barton, who seems to be in a best case time-frame in terms of returning from an injury that required surgery. He should be back in the lineup by around December 15th.

For context with regard to the statistical aspects of this piece, please open this link: TPM™

Nuggets vs Minnesota: "They must have taken my Marbles away."

When last these two teams squared off in game 82 of last season, the Nuggets (lap) enjoyed double figure TPM contributions from three players led by Jamal Murray's +23. Only one player was in the red for that encounter in the form of Mason Plumlee's unsightly -10, en route to a heartbreaking defeat which ended the Denver Nuggets 2017-'18 season. On that evening, Jokic stepped up when it mattered most (on the macro but unfortunately not in the micro level, to close out the game) with a line of 35-10-3 on 14-25 from the floor, in a way that has resulted in most of his fans feeling disappointed this season, despite the all-star statistics he's putting up. If he can ever bottle that big game drive and harness it, look out.

Murray and Barton were also huge with lines of 20-6-6 & 24-8-5 respectfully but it was just not enough to counter the damage done by the since departed Butler's 31-5-5 & Towns 26-14-2 on 12-19 shooting.

Some interesting foreshadowing occurred toward the end of overtime in that game. Andrew Wiggins sank two foul shots with 15 seconds remaining to make it 110-106 in what would end up being a 112-106 final score. Jimmy Butler described it thusly:

"I was like, `Wigs, I know you can do this," Butler said. "And he told me to move. He did. He's like, `Move!' I'm like, `OK, excuse me.' And he stepped up and hit both of them. So, from now on, stay in my lane."

Obviously that is easier said than done isn't it Buckets?

As for this game, Denver is reeling after a 9-1 start and have won only once in seven contests. Some of this bad run can be attributed to the loss of Will Barton, some to the largely upgraded quality in opponents, though most of it seems to stem from tertiary factors that this team seems to have trouble contending with; everything from media faux pas to shooting slumps. In my opinion, the salve in both the short and the long term for their maladies however is entirely within their reach.

Malone has simply GOT to stop being so stubborn in his control over the offense in the early season as occurs year after year following a pre-season of defensive focus, which in turn leaves the offense rusty on an annual basis out of the gate. Why must we wait every season until December 15th for December 15th to arrive?

Yes you need to be able to run plays... in key moments, not THE WHOLE DAMNED GAME when players like Harris and Murray get the majority of their in-rhythm looks from a free-flowing offense orchestrated by Jokic, not the guy on the sideline.

When you need to stem the tide, call a set play. Out of a timeout, call a set play. Late in the shot clock on an inbound... set play. Late in the game when a bucket is needed... you guessed it, set play. In nearly all other circumstances it is Jokic, not Malone, who needs to grasp hold of the Jok from the pilot and let his virtuosity take over.

Yes you also need to play excellent defense... in Key moments, not the whole damned game (at least in terms of the way this offensive-minded roster is constructed.) I was a 3 and D pg in my playing days and as such, I always approach the game with a defensive lean but I'm also a realist. Defense, far more-so than offense, saps energy as you are reacting rather than creating which is more taxing on the body and the mind. Let this team be who they are until you have the defensive players at your disposal to be what you want them to be coach. They have proven that they are capable of getting stops, just don't put the pressure of doing so each time down on the second youngest team in the league. You may just be surprised on how much being in the offensive "zone" bleeds into defensive performance.

It is my belief that confidence and momentum (both entirely unquantifiable) not situational data-driven reaction, are by far the largest determining factors in outcome as they relate to wins and losses in basketball at all levels. Coach Malone has talked about an understanding of this and I firmly believe he does value winning and relationships above all but often falls into the trappings of desiring to be correct over the team functioning at their best. He is a good coach and he's human. He's still learning. He'll never be perfect but he can be better. How do you achieve mastery of these tenants? THAT is where the data and homework come in. I firmly believe these two factors, the co & the mo, are the biggest issues facing the team over this rough patch and they are entirely solvable problems.

On to the Wolves. This is a very different Wolves team than that which began the season. Their unit is less about whose team it is now and may end up being better for the trade, almost certainly so in the long term. They are sans-doubt less dysfunctional and more well rounded but there will be games that having an alpha like Butler will be missed.

KAT is their best player and he's putting up All Star numbers again. For reasons I've yet to get to the bottom of, perhaps it's as simple as playing the same position, he seems to despise Big Honey. I've asked ad nauseum if anyone has insight on the matter and am still all ear... well, eyes.

Wiggins is having a much more efficient season at least in terms of three point shooting and from the line but he takes far too many contested two's. That's solvable. Solve it! He's getting his hands in the passing lane more and I'd say that rumors of his demise were greatly exaggerated. It's obvious that this still-young man is striving to improve in areas of weakness.

It'd be impossible to overstate the feel-good story that is the resurgent Derrick Rose. With the injuries he's contended with, you have to root for him (when he's not playing the Nuggets) so his 50 point game and resurgent season are nothing but positive for us as fans.

You know exactly what you'll get year in / year out from Teague and Gibson. Steadying and consistent play/numbers and strong veteran glue/grit.

This team has depth (not that it generally comes into play under this coach) as Jones and Dieng barely see the floor and are both capable veterans off the bench.

The primary players acquired in the Butler trade, Covington and Saric are starters on nearly any team and solid contributors in some manner for a championship squad. Lord Covington in particular should flourish in a Thibb's run squad.

Finally, speaking of Thibb's guys, the rookie Okogie couldn't hit the broad side of a barn if his life depended on it but has something you can not teach; natural DBBIQ so he'll assuredly see minutes.

Prediction: Denver (lap) 107 - Minnesota 111

Go Nuggets!

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If you are viewing the pre-game version of the TPM piece; and you enjoy Gonzo-basketball reporting, I invite you to please join me after the game where the same link will lead you to the post game version. In it, all of the disjointed/unsightly blanks below will be filled, complete with data/analysis and more snark than "Snarknado VI: Snakenado", which I'm told is about a pessimistic, albino, black mamba who emerges from micro-bursts to torment the people of Los Angeles with shady tweets.

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Unique, hard to find, one of a kind and custom gear of your favorite team

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Minnesota Timberwolves Roster

NO Name POS Age HT WT College Salary
31 Keita "Bass-Drop" Bates-Diop SF 22 6' 9" 229 lbs Ohio State $838,464
8 Jerryd Bayless "Shoes"
PG 30 6' 3" 200 lbs Arizona $8,575,916
33 Robert "Lord" Covington SF 27 6' 9" 225 lbs Tennessee State $10,464,092
9 Luol "Gorgui" Deng SF 33 6' 9" 237 lbs Duke $1,512,601
5 Gorgui "Luol" Dieng C 28 6' 11" 252 lbs Louisville $15,170,787
67 Taj "The Garage" Gibson PF 33 6' 9" 232 lbs USC $14,000,000
1 "Biased" Tyus Jones PG 22 6' 2" 196 lbs Duke $2,444,053
7 "Pun-ily" James Nunnally SF 28 6' 7" 208 lbs UC Santa Barbara $1,349,383
20 Josh "I lived in a place called
Okogie
"And I had a little girl in a holler tree"
SG 20 6' 4" 212 lbs Georgia Tech $2,160,746
25 Derrick "Not Just Yet Father Time" Rose PG 30 6' 3" 200 lbs Memphis $1,512,601
36 "Super" Dario Saric PF 24 6' 10" 223 lbs Kukocia $2,526,840
0 Jeff "Chinco" Teague PG 30 6' 2" 195 lbs Wake Forest $19,000,000
3 "He Went To" Jared Terrell SG 23 6' 3" 227 lbs Rhode Island G-Money
43 Anthony "The Gargantuan Orphan" Tolliver PF 33 6' 8" 250 lbs Creighton $4,750,000
32 Karl-Anthony "Kat, Not To Be Confused With K.O.T." Towns C 23 7' 0" 248 lbs Kentucky $7,839,435
22 Andrew "Wiley" Wiggins SF 23 6' 8" 194 lbs Kansas $25,467,250
12 C.J. "Way over yonder in the minor key
There ain't nobody that can sing like me" Williams
SG 28 6' 5" 226 lbs North Carolina State G-Money

Denver Nuggets Roster

Coach: Michael "Post" Malone

NO Name POS
Age
HT
WT
College
Salary
23 DeVaughn "DAP" Akoon-Purcell SG 25 6' 6" 200 lbs Illinois State G-money
5 Will "The People's Champion" Barton SG 27 6' 6" 190 lbs Memphis $11,830,358
25 Malik "The Beas knees" Beasley SG 21 6' 5" 195 lbs Florida State $1,773,840
3 Torrey "FUCKING" Craig SF 27 6' 7" 215 lbs USC Upstate $2,000,000
14 "Just" Gary Harris SG 24 6' 4" 210 lbs Michigan State $16,517,857
41 Juancho "The Mouthful" Hernangomez PF 23 6' 9" 230 lbs Espana $2,166,360
15 Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic (AKA The Brow Beater)
C 23 7' 0" 250 lbs Gotham $24,605,181
20 Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon PF 22 6' 10" 225 lbs Syracuse $1,874,640
7 Trey "The Swiss Army Spork" Lyles PF 22 6' 10" 234 lbs Kentucky $3,364,249
4 Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap PF 33 6' 8" 246 lbs Louisiana Tech $29,230,769
11 "Meanwhile" Monte "Rose" Morris PG 23 6' 3" 175 lbs Iowa State $1,349,383
27 Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray PG 21 6' 4" 207 lbs Kentucky $3,499,800
24 Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee PF 28 6' 11" 235 lbs Duke $12,917,808
1 Michael "The Sleeper Cell" Porter Jr. PF 20 6' 10" 210 lbs Missouri $2,894,160
0 Isaiah "Ice" Thomas PG 29 5' 9" 185 lbs Washington $1,512,601
8 Jarred "Macadamia Nut? I Dunno" Vanderbilt PF 19 6' 9" 214 lbs Kentucky $838,464
45 Thomas "Irvine" Welsh C 22 7' 0" 255 lbs UCLA G-Money

Update: MPJ and I.T. are sleeping on Ice, awaiting intel as to when their services will be required. Rookie Jared Vanderbilt will have to wait to make his rookie debut until long after R.O.Y. candidate Thomas Welsh, as he recovers from an actual injury. Torrey Craig is doubtful with a sore hammy. Finally, Barton had successful surgery on his abductor and hip. He will be evaluated for return in mid-December. As for Minnesota, none reported at CANIS HOOPUS

Data:

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TPM™ Game 18 MIN

Jamal Murray: +13

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +5

Gary Harris: +14

Malik Beasley: +8

Torrey Craig: N/A

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: N/A

Will Barton: N/A

Juancho Hernangomez: +1

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +18

Trey Lyles: +1

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +12

Mason Plumlee: +15

Thomas Welsh: N/A

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Total TPM™

Jamal Murray: 18 games +248

Isaiah Thomas: 0 games +0

Monte Morris: 18 games +227

Gary Harris: 18 games +279

Malik Beasley: 18 games +72

Torrey Craig: 13 games -5

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: 4 games +0

Will Barton: 2 games +33

Juancho Hernangomez: 17 games +38

Michael Porter Jr.: 0 games +0

Jared Vanderbilt: 0 games +0

Paul Millsap: 18 games +150

Trey Lyles: 18 games +141

Tyler Lydon: 5 games +4

Nikola Jokic: 18 games +347

Mason Plumlee: 18 games +110

Thomas Welsh: 3 games -1

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +13.78

Isaiah Thomas: N/A

Monte Morris: +12.61

Gary Harris: +15.50

Malik Beasley: +4.00

Torrey Craig: -0.30

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: +0.00

Will Barton: +16.50

Juancho Hernangomez: +2.24

Michael Porter Jr.: N/A

Jared Vanderbilt: N/A

Paul Millsap: +7.76

Trey Lyles: 8.33

Tyler Lydon: +0.80

Nikola Jokic: +19.28

Mason Plumlee: +6.11

Thomas Welsh: -0.33

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TPM Per-Minute Splits Through Game 11: TPM-2018-2019-Game-11.0.png

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*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

Analysis:

Qtr1- The Nuggets trot out their second iteration of the post-Craig (RIP), injury-replacement starting five, consisting of Morris, Harris, Juancho, Millsap & Jokic. The Wolves counter with Teague, Wiggins, Covington, Gibson & Towns. I must once again thank Kroenke Sports entertainment for greasing the wheels of the NBA/NHL as a means to get staggered start times for the Nuggets/AVS games though it'd be nice if they didn't play on the same night for a change. Is tonight's official Haywood Workman the same one who played for the Pacers? Pretty cool if so. The bigs for both sides are cross-matching defensively which is wise I think. Jokic is running the offense more from the elbow which symptomatic of exactly what I was calling for in the pre-game piece. Apparently the guards are ALSO cross-matching. Very interesting indeed. Denver trails by three at the time of the first break at 6:22. Only Wiggins/Juancho seem to be defending one another in a standard manner.

IT is hungry. Are you Hungry? Lets eat Nuggets! "Anything that's got the Alamo or Wilt Chamberlain, I'm all aboard" declares the self-deprecating Marlowe. Love it! KAT earns his second foul which is huge, at 5:27. Morris is first off the pine at this point, still trailing by three. Denver is getting good looks from distance but are only 2-7. Millsap looks energetic tonight, is playing superior D & just excellent offensively. Denver takes the lead on the strength of a 6-0 run. Juancho/Harris are a combined 1-8 from beyond the arc. Lyles/Beasley check in at 2:32. "Stay Down" Bellows Thibb's (I'm assuming). My dog fucking HATES watching basketball. She vastly preferred YouTube videos of cute min-pins playing "bang-bang, you're dead" earlier today. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +8 as they trail 23-25 after one.

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Qtr2- The Joker played the entire first quarter and avoided early foul issues for a change. Plumlee is in for him to start the second. The crowd is almost entirely silent, save one lunatic who is laughing maniacally after a Lyles three clanks right. The Nuggets are ice-cold from distance, 3-12. Three is the magic number as the Wolves again lead by said margin heading into the initial break of the second period at 8:07. Beasley is the only Nugget who can see straight and Denver takes the lead after a three by Malik. He's surprisingly the first Nugget to reach double figures in scoring, over just seven minutes of action! He earns a third foul prior to being able to check out but that shouldn't factor into this one (famous last words.) Millsap is the second to reach double digits for the good guys. These officials are hesitant to call obvious fouls on KAT due to his two fouls, not due to his lack of committing them. This has been a well played game as you'd expect when these two teams meet. Denver has been called for five straight fouls. Minnesota has clearly committed just as many if not more in the same time frame. This discrepancy and their recent turnovers result in you guessed it, a three point lead for Minnesota.

Denver has no one who can defend Towns but who does really? The usual suspects Embiid and Gobert can't come out of the paint to defend his well above 40% shooting from beyond the arc. He has the last nine points for the Wolves who are up 10-0 in free throw attempts in this quarter. Harris drives and earns a rare foul vs Minnesota on a play that usually wouldn't and shouldn't be called. Plumlee enters to protect Millsap and his two fouls. Good job Coach Malone. It's the first time all year that Denver has utilized the "Ivory Tower" front-court. Jokic hacks KAT and the ref calls it on Plumlee. Hell, this lineup looks more like Roman Columns with Plumlee/Jokic/Juancho all out there. Pretty fun! Hastings likes to blame all momentum changes on guys getting nicked up, in this case it's Juancho. Sometimes there is truth to it but it's largely coincidence and in the case of Jokic in the last game, a function of earning a silly second foul just prior to checking out, as is his wont. Speaking of which, he's still out there with two fouls and right on queue, picks up his third. Bad job Coach Malone! But more to the point, another horrendously silly "only Jokic" foul. No hesitation whatsoever on the part of the official. Minnesota goes 11-14 from the line; Denver 2-2. The Nuggets are paced in TPM Beasley +8 by as they trail 56-50 at the half.

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Qtr3- Somehow one of Big Honey's fouls has disappeared. Not certain what that's all about but I'm sure the Nuggets will not argue. The silence in Minnesota is seriously eerie. Don't they know that's a silence only reserved for Pepsi Center (Kyle Speller aside)? Harris is the third Nugget to reach double figures and Denver cuts it to two, in scoring the first four points of the third period. Denver is attacking the rim and now forcing the issue in terms of making the refs call fouls. The Wolves have yet to score with 8:16 to play. The three-second call that Thibb's has been loudly calling for on seemingly every play backfires, as KAT is the player called for it. Murray has REALLY picked up the defensive effort here in the third. Minnesota finally scores on a wide open three by Wiggins when Murray was on the floor efforting for a steal on the other end. Denver finally has a lead by one, not three, on a Murray three.

'Sap scores seven straight for the Nuggets before getting cracked the fuck open and bleeding everywhere, FINALLY forcing these reluctant officials to tag KAT for a foul! It's Nikola's turn to increase the defensive effort and Denver leads by seven with 4:12 to go. Murray's shot is now falling and he's the fourth Nugget to reach double digits in scoring. Morris sticks a three with no hesitation and the Nugget lead is eight at 2:55. Another Murray three and the lead is eleven! Finally a good third period for the good guys! This is a spot where last season, Jimmy Buckets would take over and stem the tide, something the Wolves indeed miss. Murray was the difference in the third with his superior defense leading to finding the zone offensively, the reverse of what I discussed pre-game but the same functionality. He nabs his fourth foul for the Nuggets with just 19 seconds remaining, another personnel oversight by Malone. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +10, Plumlee +15, Millsap +16 & Murray +18 as they lead 85-74 after three.

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Qtr4- Plumlee was also a difference maker in the third and is having one of his best games in terms of TPM as a result. The lead is 11 for Denver at 10:40. The Nuggets limited the Wolves to just two PITP in the third after being a veritable sieve in the first half. Millsap is gonna look like one hard motherfucker after earning his facial stitches tonight. Either that or a mumble-rapper. Either way, its highly misleading considering what a good guy he seems to be. The Nuggets lead by nine with 8:20 to play. Dieng plays some seriously good post defense on Big Honey, leading to a turnover on a foul from Nikola. Another turnover by Jokic results in a three and the Wolves have ALL the momentum. The lead has evaporated to just one on the strength of a 12-0 run by Minnesota at 7:02. Another fourth quarter collapse looms as The Joker runs out of gas once again. Glad to see 'Sap back in with several butterfly bandages over a good number of stitches, above his left eye. I'm not sure the exact time-frame but Denver is on a prolonged scoring drought of their own. Just over four minutes says Marlowe. Thanks Chris. I couldn't do this piece, quite literally, without you!

A three by Harris brings rain and "The Nuggets needed that like pumpkin pie needs whipped cream" declareth the always-on-point Marlowe. The lead is four with just under five minutes to go. Towns is finally defending Jokic; not the case on the other end. Minnesota is in the bonus the rest of the way at 2:39 with Denver leading by two. The Nuggets lead is now six after a layup by Harris (who has really asserted himself in the fourth) followed by a Millsap floater with 1:32 remaining. Stop arguing about pie fellas, it's all heavenly! 'Sap is called for a HIGHLY erroneous blocking foul resulting in a three point play for KAT. The Joker has the difficult portion (for other guys) of a 3D out of the way with a line of 7-12-10. The lead is four with 35 seconds to play. The refs are finally forced to call a foul on KAT as he intentionally fouls Murray with 6.8 seconds remaining. The funny thing is they REALLY took thier time deciding on when an if to call it. Jamal sticks both and things are looking good for the good guys. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +12, Murray +13, Harris +14, Plumlee +15 & Millsap +18 as they pull out a big road win, 103-101.

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Final Thoughts: That looked more like an NBA basketball squad. Five or six stitches says "Big Game P" a nickname coined by a jubilant Will Barton just now for "The Anchorman." Great to see that. Terrible nickname as are all of Will's (it's why I still insist on calling Jokic "Big Honey" despite being the only one) but I love the leadership Barton provides and I'm excited to see him jovial. Hopefully this indicates a looming return for "The People's Champion." Mason Plumlee and Jamal Murray's second half D are the unsung heroes tonight but Millsap was the MVP, sans doubt. Zero Denver players were in the red tonight with regard to TPM and THAT is how you procure a road victory vs a talented team.

Enjoy your families and togetherness tomorrow. Eat all pie! Happy thanksgiving Nuggets fans!

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The Nuggets Win!

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