Now to get this out of the way, I don’t think Juancho is a better player than Wilson Chandler right now, nor do I think he’s probably all that ready to play big minutes against the league’s best. That said I believe there are legitimate reasons to consider starting Juancho at the Small Forward position this year.
The Bench Conundrum
I think it’s quite clear that the starting lineup of Murray, Harris, Chandler, Millsap, Jokic has the potential to be one of the best in the league. The potential problems are going to come when the Nuggets are forced to go to their bench.
The backup point guard position is probably the most concerning. Mudiay tends to find more success when he can play alongside other playmakers and act as a spot up shooter and cutter. Jameer is aging and likely to slow down even more this year. Will Barton can function as the primary ball handler in these bench units and that’s probably best.
With Juancho as part of the bench unit, Will Barton becomes the only player who can effectively create for himself and for others. Assuming Mudiay takes on the backup role, the lineup of Mudiay, Barton, Juancho, Faried, and Plumlee is a lineup of Barton and a bunch of role players.
Now if you swap Chandler for Juancho, that bench unit all of a sudden has two 6MOY candidates capable of generating offense of their own. It allows Chandler and Barton to abuse backups which will only help with their efficiency. With those two generating the offense, Plumlee manning the pivot, and Faried and Mudiay making cuts and finding openings, you have the makings of a somewhat competent offensive lineup.
Juancho’s Tweener Status
One of the biggest issues Malone is going to face when managing the roster this year is that it’s quite clear that Juancho will be at his best in this league as a stretch 4. Unfortunately Juancho is going to be forced to play nearly all his minutes at the 3 this year and there are serious questions about how well he can actually do that.
Ideally from the 3 position you want a player that can stay in front of other 3s, create off the dribble, and shoot the ball well. Juancho does one of those things. The other two may be within reach, but he has yet to show it with consistency. Thus it would be wise to pair him with another forward who can do those things.
The issue with this is that the forwards that make sense are Wilson Chandler and Paul Millsap. Millsap is clearly the starter, and Chandler and Juancho are likely the only two players capable of putting up big minutes at the 3, thus they can’t play many minutes together.
The obvious solution to this problem is to allow Juancho to start alongside Millsap. Paul can take the more difficult defensive assignments and effectively create off the dribble when needed. This frees Juancho up to do what he does best, which is cut, spot up, and rebound like an animal.
The Starting Lineup
There are two major concerns I have with a projected starting lineup of Murray, Harris, Chandler, Millsap, and Jokic. The first is spacing, neither Millsap or Chandler is a knockdown shooter and this could cause the lane to clog more frequently than last year. The second is the number of possessions available. That lineup would replace Faried and Gallo with Millsap and Chandler and would be a net increase of total usage% on the court.
On top of that we are also likely an increase in usage from both Jokic and Murray. When the team should be taking strides to get the ball in Jokic’s hands more often we’d be adding an additional player that likes to create with the ball in their hands. While I do think both Millsap and Chandler can adapt and do this less often, it makes you wonder whether a lower usage player would make more sense in the starting lineup.
Enter Juancho, who not only brings better 3pt shooting and spacing, but also thrives as an off ball player. If Millsap soaks up Gallo’s role in the starting lineup, Juancho would seamlessly slide into Faried’s role. His game is actually similar to Faried’s in that he’s a high flying shot-blocking rebounder, but adds a silky smooth jumper and 3pt. Range.
Ultimately, I don’t believe that Juancho is a real 3 in this league, however I think with the right pairing he can nominally function as the 3 better in the starting lineup than he would be able to in the bench unit. This is more a thought experiment than anything as I myself am unsure if this is really a better option than just putting our best players out there and allowing them to figure it out. However it is certainly something the coaches should consider experimenting with in preseason.
