This summer was an excellent summer for the Nuggets. They were aggressive, looking to better the team, but careful about using their assets. I will admit I’m exceptionally pleased that we didn’t go through with the Kevin Love trade, which would have been disappointing and cost one of our best young players. I’m sure the organization would love a redo on the draft yet overall the drafting for the past several years can’t be criticized too severely.
Perhaps the best part of the summer was announcing the acquisition of Paul Millsap. The Nuggets simply paid a player to come here and he came, and with a team friendly contract. I would like to see the same again next summer, and I’d like to see it with Paul George. I think it’s possible and here’s how.
We begin by trading for Dwayne Wade. Kenneth Faried, Darell Arthur and Malik Beasley or Will Barton should do the trick and the salaries match. If Chicago is more/also interested in Trey Lyles or Tyler Lydon it seems worth while to make it work.
Denver gets a lot out of this trade. The Nuggets will probably make the playoffs and a positive impact from Dwayne Wade every third or fourth game would be great. Wade’s playoff experience as well as excellent game sense adds to his veteran leadership and professionalism. Wade is also a fantastic cutter and will love playing with Jokic. The most important part of this is that Denver loses the salaries of Faried and Arthur for the 2018/19 season. More on this in a minute. Wade would also bring some credibility to Denver and remove at least a bit of mental block that most free agents seem to have about Denver. Having Wade would mean more national exposure, more interviews and the chance for Wade to gush about Jokic nationally and what fun it is to get several uncontested dunks a game just because a defender turned his head.
Chicago is tanking and is probably going to buy out Wade anyway. Letting Wade go to a playoff contender will make Wade happy and keep Chicago out of a petty buyout standoff. As a tanking team Chicago is looking to develop prospects and lose games. Barton/Lyles/Beasley fit very well into that plan and I doubt Chicago gets anything better on the open market. Faried and Arthur give Chicago salary flexibility. They want to be able to take back players/picks in salary dumps and having two middle sized salaries works well. As they only have 23 million committed for 2018/19, (not including the big but not giant contact LaVine is going to get,) they will have to pay someone. Manimal is a larger than life marketing ploy that the city will love while it suffers through it's worst losing season in the past several decades.
Back to the monetary ramifications for the Nuggets. The summer of 2018 is the Nuggets best hope to build a championship contender. It will be their last opportunity for a while to add a top tier free agent without trading away any of their young pieces. By the time the summer of 2019 rolls around the Nuggets will be capped out unless they release Paul Millsap. The most important Nugget that needs to get paid next summer is Gary Harris. The Nuggets can get a deal done with him this year and absolutely should. If he has another great year he’s going to command something starting around 15 - 20 million.
The following season both Jokic and Mudiay need to be paid and while many are down on Mudiay he will probably get something more than 7 million a year. Jokic, barring a drastic downturn in play, will happily be offered the max by multiple teams and will almost certainly receive it from Denver.
Here is what the Nuggets would have committed for the 2018/19 season. We are going to pencil in Gary Harris for 18 mil.
Nikola Jokic 1.5
Paul Millsap 30
Emmanuel Mudiay 4.3
Jamal Murray 3.5
Juancho Hernangomez 2.2
Tyler Lydon 1.9
Gary Harris 18
Total: 61.4
This doesn’t include guys like Torrey Craig, Monte Morris, Mason Plumlee or Jameer Nelson. I’m assuming the Nuggets are smart enough not to lock themselves into long term contracts with those guys. I like Craig but he’s got a lot to prove.
The following are those the Nuggets currently have money committed to but might/would be gone in this scenario.
Trey Lyles 3.4
Malik Beasley 1.8
Kenneth Faried 13.7
Darrell Arthur 7.5
Will Barton UFA
Wilson Chandler Player Option 12.8
Wilson Chandler is the wild card in this equation. He has a player option of 12.8 for 2018/19 and assuming a reasonably successful year from him and given the newfound space at his position he will not only start but play more than last year. He will almost certainly be looking for more and barring a disastrous year teams will give it to him. So here we assume he is opting out to become a UFA.
Salary cap projections for 2018 - 2019 hover around 100 million. This scenario leaves the Nuggets with enough to give Paul George a max offer and still fill in the rest of the roster around him (Torrey Craig, Monte Morris anyone?). George will be 29 years old, and the player on the market who has the highest likelihood of switching teams. Reports have him wanting to go to LA. However, after a year of playing my turn, your turn with Westbrook, the pass happy, high octane, league’s best offense in Denver might be looking very attractive. LA will also have allure for enough reasons I don’t need to get into but what it will not offer is a chance at a championship. If Denver progresses well enough George might recognize the foundation for a championship where George would still be the star, the closer who would have the ball in his hands for clutch moments. A super team waiting for it’s alpha.
This scenario can survive a higher salary to Harris as well as some minor roster changes. What it cannot survive is the salaries of Arthur, Faried and Chandler still being on the books. They simply have to go.
If the Nuggets play this perfectly I would rate the odds of George coming to Denver around 25%. Let’s run through the if’s. If Jokic firmly plants himself as a top three center, if Jamal Murray progresses to league average, if Millsap retains his high level of play, if Chandler plays well and doesn’t get injured, and if Gary Harris takes another small step forward; the Nuggets have a top five to seven team in the league. I would say there is about a 50% chance of those "if’s" happening. Paul George replacing Chandler at that point takes the Nuggets to the second best team in the league. That’s worth the risk.
*Salary numbers are from Hoopshype.
*I will admit I’m still fuzzy as to exactly when teams can offer new contracts and deadlines as to when those contracts have to be accepted.
*Stiff writers: Can we have a spot here where Nuggets salaries are specified? It would be interesting to know exactly how the financial moves the office makes affect the team.
*Any corrections are appreciated in the comments.
