Whoever said that hindsight is 20/20 is perhaps one of the most quoted persons ever. I would disagree with the thought though and say hindsight is closer to 30/20. We look back on the past, but we look back from our position in time facing an unknown future.
Pau Gasol, and pieces, was traded for his brother Marc, and pieces in 2008. The Lakers went on to win titles in 2009 and 2010 prompting many to declare the Gasol trade one of the most one sided in history. It was one more example of the rich getting richer and the Lakers taking advantage of small market teams.
Two years after that championship, in 2012, Grizzlies fans were calling the trade the best trade ever. For the Grizzlies! Marc Gasol had stepped into his own as a basketball savant and exploitative force that sliced or hammered depending on the defensive weakness. The Lakers with Marc would have been a force for years. Hindsight depending on our point in time.
Let’s look back on the Nuggets this past year. The young guys were clearly the future. By the All-Star break it was apparent the Nuggets were on to something and could make a reasonable push for the playoffs. Chandler, Nelson, Faried and Gallo were very much part of that. But would they be part of the future? It was already obvious that the timeline of the guys mentioned above is very different than the youngsters. Why not get rid of some? I have no doubt the Nuggets tested the market but obviously over valued their guys. Were those four vital to a playoff run? Absolutely. Are they vital to the future of the Nuggets? Absolutely not and that was obvious to me and I would say most fans during the ASG.
Here’s the question. How important was that playoff run? What would change for the Nuggets if we had made it? Another major free agent? Would Millsap have turned us down if we missed the playoffs by seven games instead? No, Millsap came to play for the money and then with the youngsters, in that order, and everyone knows it. The front office sacrificed whatever assets they could have had for the vets for close to nothing. One round of playoffs is not worth getting nothing in return for Gallo.
So, with 30/20 hindsight here are the critiques.
1. Got nothing for Gallinari. He was worth something and in the best draft for the past ten years any first rounder would have been valuable.
2. Got nothing for Chandler. He almost certainly would have been worth a first rounder. Even a high second would have been fine.
3. Paid a draft pick to dump Nurk. The Memphis pick ended up being the 20th. Here’s a short list of players who were available. Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Bell, Semi Ojelye and whatever the Nuggets could have done with two picks instead of one. I would take any of that over Mason Plumlee right now.
4. Nurkic was a cancer. Fine, I’ll accept that Malone couldn’t control Nurk and he had to go. It’s called, suspension for conduct detrimental to a team. Teams have been doing it for years.
5. The Thunder were desperate for a quality backup point guard and shot maker. They would have paid something for Nelson, perhaps even their first rounder.
6. If nothing else perhaps Gallo could have been packaged to dump Faried or something similar. The loss of Gallo for nothing and giving away a pick for Nurkic is an egregious error. I know Connelly gets a pass for the Jokic pick but two such mistakes add up quickly.
So with our hindsight giving some thoughts for the future here goes.
1. Don’t overvalue Chandler. He has value but he also has faults. He’s a ball stopper, he shoots a lot of midrange fade-aways, he doesn’t engage often enough on defense, and he can get pouty. Get what can be got or use him to offload Faried or Arthur.
2. If someone comes calling for Jameer, great. If not don’t let him take the minutes of the young guys who desperately need them.
3. Do not sign Plumlee. He wins us what, maybe two games this year? Faried and Millsap can cover the backup center minutes without too much drop off. Non-shooting centers are becoming anathema in this league and any contract signed with Plumlee is gonna look bad in two years.
4. Sign the youngsters as soon as possible. Don’t wait until some team signs an overvalued RFA contract with Murray that includes a trade kicker, back loaded money and every other dirty trick teams are throwing in.
Maximize trade value for the vets and let the young guys play. History has taught us it’s only going to be the difference of a couple of games anyway… at least that’s what I think today.