Denver at New Orleans: It's big, but this one won't be Easy.
Pre-Game Thoughts: The Pelicans will undoubtedly have revenge on their minds and they'll most likely achieve it, since Denver couldn't win on the road even prior to losing their two best players to injury. It's not a slam dunk since New Orleans will be without one of the top 5 players on the planet in Anthony Davis but it'd be difficult to pick the Nuggets over anyone at this point, especially on the road.
Having not had a practice since the ugly loss in Dallas, I simply don't expect the Nuggets to have done anything about their close-outs at the three point line & especially their P&R defense, not that I would have, had they and it seems every team knows that they can switch any player they wish onto any Nuggets defender they choose. This strategy was first deployed to perfection in the Houston game by two of the best P&R players ever in Harden and CP3 and the pristine blueprint they crafted is now used by seemingly any and every team vs Denver.
The two biggest victims of this are Faried & Murray as of late. Faried, who's presence almost requires a switching defense due to his utter lack of willingness and or ability to play peripheral defense instead of ball watching and hunting spectacular blocks (which occur very infrequently) & rebounds. Murray, who's lack of post experience & size/strength to defend in mismatches makes him the target most often, not necessarily through lack of effort, just lack of physical maturity.
Given how Murray is playing on the offensive end currently and played against the Pels last time, it'd be hard to advocate giving him fewer minutes, so I have to think that the obvious answer here is to insert Lyles into the starting lineup for Faried. This would have the added bonus of giving Denver a player off the bench in Faried that has experience as a small ball center (unlike Lyles) and limiting the amount of minutes that two offensive/defensive non-threats (in terms of with/on the ball respectively), Faried and Plumlee, play together.
The counter move to this is that when and if Murray is still caught in the post on a miss-match consistently even with Faried on the bench, at a greater scoring frequency than he contributes offensively, you've got to pull him and insert Mudiay, who is clearly appearing in opponents scouting reports as a stout defender capable of switching onto larger players. How do I know this? Every time he enters the game and Jamal is not, the opponents strategy changes back to their base offense. Also he is more capable of getting over screens and has a better feel for where to be in secondary rotations when screened off. It's good to see that he's learning aspects of the mental side of the game. Offensive consistency (for both of the young PG's) will be the next step.
Will these two simple rotational corrections happen? Absolutely not.
Geaux Nuggets!
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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?! (After these messages... Er Nicknames)
Denver Roster:
Will "The People's Champion" Barton,
Juancho "Ironically, No Room For A Nickname" Hernangomez
Richard "The Dragon Slayer" Jefferson
Kenneth "The Manimal" Faried
Trey "Bien" Lyles
Darrell "Darth" Arthur
Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon
Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic
Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee
Michael "Mr Imagination" Malone
New Orleans Roster:
Rajon "Row, Row, Row Your Boat" Rondo
E'Twaun "Bocoup N'Orleans" Moore
Cheick "Smoothie King Center" Diallo
Omer Asik "Not What You Can Do For Your Country, Or You'll Be Banned Like Enes Kanter"
Update: Millsap had successful left wrist surgery and is expected back some time around the all star break. Jokic is out for "a few games" with a sprained ankle/stress ridden mind. Chandler is probable with a sore back and Plumlee is probable with a strain of the abdominal muscles for the Nuggets. As for New Orleans, Davis is out (day to day) with a left abductor strain, Ajinca is out with a knee injury, Johnson with a foot injury & Hill is hamstrung.
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Data: Open this link in a new tab for the definition of TPM™
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TPM™ Game 24 NO
Jamal Murray: +9
Emmanuel Mudiay: +20
Monte Morris: N/A
Gary Harris: +23
Will Barton: +7
Malik Beasley: +4
Torrey Craig: N/A
Wilson Chandler:+0
Juancho Hernangomez: +6
Richard Jefferson: +
Paul Millsap: N/A
Kenneth Faried: -7
Trey Lyles: +15
Darrell Arthur: N/A
Tyler Lydon: N/A
Nikola Jokic: N/A
Mason Plumlee -5
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Total TPM™ starting Game 1 vs. Uta
Jamal Murray: 24 Games +212
Emmanuel Mudiay: 24 Games +258
Monte Morris: 0 Games +0
Gary Harris: 22 Games +309
Will Barton: 24 Games +236
Malik Beasley: 21 Games +44
Torrey Craig: 1 Game +0
Wilson Chandler: 20 Games +114
Juancho Hernangomez: 13 Games -12
Richard Jefferson: 8 Games -2
Paul Millsap: 16 Games +173
Kenneth Faried: 21 Games +46
Trey Lyles: 19 Games +78
Darrell Arthur: 3 Games -8
Tyler Lydon: 1 Games -3
Nikola Jokic: 21 Games +314
Mason Plumlee: 24 Games +69
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
Jamal Murray: +8.83
Emmanuel Mudiay: +10.75
Monte Morris: N/A
Gary Harris: +14.05
Will Barton: +9.83
Malik Beasley: +2.10
Torrey Craig: +0.00
Wilson Chandler: +5.70
Juancho Hernangomez: -0.92
Richard Jefferson: -0.25
Paul Millsap: +10.81
Kenneth Faried: +2.19
Trey Lyles: +4.11
Darrell Arthur: -2.67
Tyler Lydon: -3.00
Nikola Jokic: +14.95
Mason Plumlee: +2.88
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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 23:
*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak
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Analysis:
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Qtr1- The Nuggets go small-ball to open with Murray, Harris, Barton, Chandler & Faried. New Orleans rolls out Rondo, Holiday, Moore, Cunningham & Cousins. Chandler & Barton are going to need to be aggressive on the boards tonight. Not much D is expected out of either club, though Denver looks surprisingly focused there early. I'm hesitant to say they are forcing TO's since NO throws the ball away a lot but Denver is no doubt capitalizing as they jump out to a 15-9 lead at 7:23. Aside from two careless turnovers, Denver is cookin'. Chandler even swished a three! The Nuggets lead 24-18 at 3:57. Barton is the first Nugget in double figures and Denver has made 5 in a row from down town. Plumlee is off to a rough start defensively. Mudiay drills a three making it 6 in a row before Barton misses on a 2-1 three pointer. He decided to go ahead and miss the 1-1 three just for good measure. Denver is paced in TPM by Barton & Harris, both +11 and despite all the success from downtown, they are struggling to defend the three as always and it's all knotted up at 33 after one.
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Qtr2- Chris Marlowe is Scott Hastings, says Marlowe. Still no Juancho up to this point oddly. Denver goes on a 9-2 run and now lead by 8. Lyles and Mudiay have been big off the bench for Denver and Plumlee is now starting to right the ship. Harris is the 2nd Nugget in double digits. Boogie may be the only player who flops/complains more frequently than Big Honey. Plumlee nabs his third foul at 6:38 and he's replaced by Faried, up 7. The bench stints are short for Denver's better scorers tonight. This game has the feel of one that will go down to the wire. It's actually a fun game to watch even though the defensive execution is lacking, because the effort is there and there is space on offense. It's a back & forth, high scoring affair at 3:45, 58-54 Denver. The Nuggets are settling for contested threes now rather than attacking which is what opened up the earlier wide open threes. Mudiay is on point in all facets of the game tonight and is earning the majority share of the PG minutes as a result. He's the third Nugget in double figures. Harris is his usual excellent all around self. Barton is HIS usual up and down giveth/taketh self as well. Boogie is living at the line however, and NO retakes the lead towards the end of the first half. Denver is paced in TPM by Barton +10, Lyles +11, Mudiay +18 and Harris +19 but trail 67-66 at the half.
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Halftime: Smoke break? Nah. Have you been outside tonight?
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Qtr3- The Pels start the 3rd on a 7-2 run. Denver (Harris) is getting good looks from deep, just missing and you have to stick 'em when you aren't playing any D. Plumlee is in for Faried rather early at 10:00. He proceeds to pick up his 4th at 8:52 but remains in. Harris steals it and dribbles out of bounds but is awarded the ball, which prompts Tony Allen, who I was previously unaware was even in the Smoothy King Center, to earn a T. Chandler hits his 2nd three in a game for likely the first time all season and the lead is going back and forth now. Denver is now on a 9-2 scoring run but Barton earns a make up T at 7:19 after he blocked Boogie's shot. The officiating is suspect to put it mildly in this half. Plumlee is far better defensively against Boogie than Faried was, but the help defender has got to get on the defensive glass to finish out the possession because Boogie is so adept at getting those Moses Malone boards. Cousins is called for his first foul. You don't suppose he could be possibly getting the better end of the whistle in this one? The refs are now slowing the pace to a crawl to make up for all of their errors. NO leads 87-83 at 5:00 as Boogie checks out. Plumlee gets his 5th foul and Faried is in for him at 4:02. The Nuggets are in the bonus with 3:09 to go, down one. Holiday is making minced meat out of Barton off the dribble tonight. Denver is sloppy to close the period. They are paced in TPM by Lyles + 13, Mudiay +19 and Harris + 26 but trail 97-91 after three.
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Qtr4- Denver has got to come up with a solution for Boogie cause Faried ain't it, and Plumlee is in foul trouble. How's Darth feelin' tonight? The scoring is back & forth as it has been all night as Faried picks up his 5th at 9:38 on a drive and NO leads 103-96. Lyles is the 4th Nugget in double digits. New Orleans stretches it to ten at 9:03 on a Miller three. Denver seems to be running out of steam early in the 4th which is not an encouraging sign. The lead is up to 14 on the strength of a 9-0 run by NO at 8:05 and you can feel the collective hiss of surrender billowing out like a leaking balloon, in the Nuggets. Mudiay has completely lost confidence in his shot in the 2nd half which is kind of the reverse of what's occurred most of the year. NO is winning PITP 58-36. Denver has no answers and I really wish I didn't feel compelled to ride this one out. Making things even more painful are all of the incessant timeouts being called in an attempt to right the ship. I'm gonna track TPM but I doubt I'll have much to say through the rest of this one. NOW Juancho comes in? Don't get me wrong, this game is for the most part not on Malone, but... Lyles has his first 2d as a Nugget. Plumlee fouls Boogies elbow with his teeth and he fouls out. Denver is paced in TPM by Lyles +12, Mudiay +20 & Harris +23 and lose in the crescent city, 123-114.
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Final Thoughts: I managed to not talk about Jameer once. Proud of me?
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