Destination Dallas for Denver as they Depart for a 6 game road trip.
Pre-Game Thoughts: The draw of alliteration with Denver's date in Dirk's Dallas Den definitely deserved deliberation but I've been a bit berserk both by breadth & broadness before, So I dialed it down.
It seems that in order to play for Dallas you must either be a PG, a Center, German or a combination thereof. The Mavs as always are lead by future hall of famer Dirk Nowitzki, but these days it's more of a symbolic, lead by example role than it is in terms of play, however it doesn't hurt the team any to utilize him unlike most elder statesmen in the league. His jumper is still as wet as ever and to paraphrase Dirk, he was never athletic to begin with, so his utility has aged gracefully. We can only hope for a similar fate to await our own non-athletic star, Big Honey.
The Bulk of the production for Dallas this season comes form of Barnes, promising rookie Dennis Smith Jr, Matthews, Ferrell and to the surprise of exactly zero Nuggets fans, Devin Harris and JJ Barea, with Dirk chipping in 11 points and 6 rebounds along with his stellar shooting percentages across the board.
Undoubtedly, the player that Denver must keep tabs on is 33 year old JJ Barea who in addition to having his best year as a pro this season, is on the NBA first team Nugget killing unit. Denver is clueless when it comes to closing out on wings and bigs at the three point line and Dallas shoots a lot of them so that is problematic. In any lineup featuring Faried as opposed to Millsap, we can unfortunately expect a lot of switching into mismatches so it may be a matter of outscoring the Mavs tonight.
Mavs Moneyball writer Dalton Trigg had an interesting take on "Wienergate" or since that's already happened twice in the form of Anthony Wiener, let's go with "Wurst Verschwörung", in his pre-game assessment of the game:
Nerlens Noel hotdog watch
Just kidding — we’ll actually be watching to see if the whole hotdog debacle magically results in Noel getting some playing time. Why would that have any affect on his playing time? I don’t really know. Will it happen? I highly doubt it, but that whole situation Saturday was so very awkward.
The thing is this; the flow of a grueling NBA season is decidedly strange, and I honestly believe it is precisely this sort of thing that can inject clarity into the momentum related tunnel vision coaches can get, even a good one like Jim Carrey... Er, Rick Carlisle and I honestly expect Noel to inadvertently start to get minutes as a result of this, so hold onto your weenies!
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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?! (After these messages... Er Nicknames)
Denver Roster:
Will "The People's Champion" Barton,
Juancho "Ironically, No Room For A Nickname" Hernangomez
Richard "The Dragon Slayer" Jefferson
Kenneth "The Manimal" Faried
Trey "Bien" Lyles
Darrell "Darth" Arthur
Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon
Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic
Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee
Michael "Mr Imagination" Malone
Dallas Roster:
"Hard Hitting" Dennis Smith Jr.
J.J. "Oh Goodie... Denver!" Barea
Wesley "Stop Calling Me Wes" Matthews
Antonius "Thelonious" Cleveland
Seth "Stop Calling Me Dell" Curry
Harrison "President Garrison" Barnes
Dorian "Not Quite Finley" Finney-Smith
Dirk "Nicts Als Netto" Nowitzki
Johnathan "I've Got Nothing" Motley
Josh "Looks Like A Gargantuan Version Of My Buddy Alex" McRoberts
Update: Millsap had successful left wrist surgery and is expected back some time around the all star break. Jokic is out for "a few games" with a sprained ankle/stress ridden mind. Chandler is probable with a sore back and Plumlee is probable with a strain of the abdominal muscles for the Nuggets. As for Dallas, Curry is out with a mysterious leg injury and McBob is out with a less mysterious knee injury.
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Data: Open this link in a new tab for the definition of TPM™
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TPM™ Game 23 DAL
Jamal Murray: -11
Emmanuel Mudiay: +7
Monte Morris: N/A
Gary Harris: +17
Will Barton: +9
Malik Beasley: +2
Torrey Craig: N/A
Wilson Chandler:+7
Juancho Hernangomez: -1
Richard Jefferson: -3
Paul Millsap: N/A
Kenneth Faried: +6
Trey Lyles: +12
Darrell Arthur: N/A
Tyler Lydon: N/A
Nikola Jokic: N/A
Mason Plumlee +8
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Total TPM™ starting Game 1 vs. Uta
Jamal Murray: 23 Games +203
Emmanuel Mudiay: 23 Games +238
Monte Morris: 0 Games +0
Gary Harris: 21 Games +286
Will Barton: 23 Games +229
Malik Beasley: 20 Games +40
Torrey Craig: 1 Game +0
Wilson Chandler: 19 Games +114
Juancho Hernangomez: 12 Games -18
Richard Jefferson: 8 Games -2
Paul Millsap: 16 Games +173
Kenneth Faried: 20 Games +53
Trey Lyles: 18 Games +63
Darrell Arthur: 3 Games -8
Tyler Lydon: 1 Games -3
Nikola Jokic: 21 Games +314
Mason Plumlee: 23 Games +74
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
Jamal Murray: +8.83
Emmanuel Mudiay: +10.35
Monte Morris: N/A
Gary Harris: +13.62
Will Barton: +9.96
Malik Beasley: +2.00
Torrey Craig: +0.00
Wilson Chandler: +6.00
Juancho Hernangomez: -1.50
Richard Jefferson: -0.25
Paul Millsap: +10.81
Kenneth Faried: +2.65
Trey Lyles: +3.50
Darrell Arthur: -2.67
Tyler Lydon: -3.00
Nikola Jokic: +14.95
Mason Plumlee: +3.22
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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 22:
*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak
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Analysis:
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Qtr1- The Nuggets go with Murray, Harris, Chandler, Faried & Plumlee. Dallas counters with the Grossdeutschland Panzer Division phalanx of Dirk and Max along with (the other) Dennis Smith, Barnes & Matthews. How in the world did Dubya somehow become likable? Is it the painting? Oh ya... Trump. Ally breaks out the red sleeveless dress for this one. Very pretty. Murray sticks his first three; Denver wins! There are a LOT of empty seats in Dallas this evening. I'm not used to seeing that. Faried is off to a putrid start defensively, as is Murray. DAL leads 14-5 at 9:10. Plumlee is now shooting a foot behind the free throw line. It's good to see that he's at least trying something; might I suggest granny style? Matthews looks ten years younger with the Travis Scott hairdo. Lyles and Barton are the first off the bench again at 6:50. Plumlee air-balls a FT; get Rick Barry in for instruction STAT! Mudiay is in for Murray at 5:20. Uh oh, Barea is in. Hack-A-Plum is in effect for the first time this season & extremely early in the game. Juancho checks in for Plumlee at 4:09, moving Lyles over to the center position against likely the largest center in the league, Mejri. This one is getting ugly fast, folks. Mudiay has zero turnovers in 2:30 of court time so I'm curious how we'll find a way to blame this 19 point 1st quarter lead on him. Barton is looking to create for others for a change, which is perhaps the only silver lining thus far. Lyles picks up his 2nd foul. Dallas is somehow killing the Nuggets in points in the paint. They were previously dead last in the league in this category. Denver is paced in TPM by Plumlee +8 and have their work cut out for them, down 39-23 after one.
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Qtr2- RJ is in to begin the 2nd. Denver is guarding JJ with Barton; shades of when they used to guard A.I. with Dermar Johnson. Juancho has two quick fouls, one of which was of the phantom variety. The lead is quickly pushed to 25 at 9:34 and I wish I was on an island that had bananas. Puzzlingly, Denver still only has one turnover, which indicates to me that they are playing passive and conservative (you don't say). Far too much is made of turnovers IMHO because they look bad, both to the eye and in misleading metrics that don't properly asses their gravity. Beasley finally sees some court time, perhaps 2.5 games late. I thought he'd earned more time with his play in the previous several games. Murray is the first Nugget in double figures at 5:30. Faried has had a nice turnaround in overall play and is the best player on the court at the moment but Denver is still down 22 at 3:30. Chandler actually looks pretty good despite his 0-8 shooting. That'll hopefully come at SOME point in this season; the sooner the better. This game, oddly still has the feeling of a winnable outcome for Denver, they just need to eat that elephant one bite at a time. Denver is finally starting to execute as Dallas goes perimeter and the lead is down to a more manageable 17 at 1:17. Harris is the 2nd Nugget in double digits. I find it to be odd and reactive coaching (as always) by Mr Imagination to never re-insert Plumlee after the hack-a-Plum strategy was deployed. FT's aside he's been one of the best all around players tonight. If the Mavs want to get into severe foul trouble in the 1st half, exploit that! No players for either team are in any concerning foul trouble as is. The Nuggets are paced by Harris in TPM with +11 but they trail 64-47 at the half.
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Halftime: Smoke break? YAAAAAAS!
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Qtr3- Plumlee is not out there to begin the 3rd so I'm left wondering if perhaps his ab strain has flared up, or if it's just Maloney baloney. Chandler finally gets off the snide at the FT line with 2 and the Dallas lead is 16. Faried & Barton are quickly the 3rd & 4th Nuggets in double figures. Matthews kicks Murray in the nether-region in a completely unnatural and unnecessary motion. That's Bush! Barton drills a three and the lead is now 11 at 7:17. It is as quiet in DAL as it is cold in DEN right now. HEHEHAHA; Matthews doesn't bother to jump ball vs Barton! I needed that. Plumlee checks in and immediately scores, confirming the Maloney baloney. Kleber nabs his 4th foul at 2:49. Now would be a fantastic time to remove the remaining starters so that they can begin the 4th as a unit; something I've been calling on for a while now. No such luck as Harris and Murray remain. Barton sinks another three and the lead is down to 8! Marlowe clarifies that "Twelve men on the field" is a football reference. Thanks Chris. Barton and Harris played the entire 3rd and may need to play the entire fourth. Denver is paced in TPM by Barton +11, Harris & Plumlee both +13 and they are back in it, down just ten 92-82 after three.
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Qtr4- I worry that if Malone elects to remove Barton and or Harris he'll be setting the table for a loss and since he didn't give them a blow in the third, it's the likely scenario. They are as veteran as the Nuggets roster currently contains and they should be able to tough it out if they stay in. Faried has a 2d. Barton remains in but Harris gets a break. It had better be brief. Dallas scores the first 4 prior to Barton countering with two. The lead is 15 with 10:57 and Harris has now had enough real-time on the bench. He must be reinserted after a timeout gives him an extra couple of minutes to refresh. For once Malone concurs and Harris is in along with Lyles. Barton is, believe it or not flirting with a 3d. DAL is up by 14 at 8:30. Denver is playing very good D with Lyles, Mudiay, Plumlee & Harris leading the charge. Harris sinks a three providing evidence that he should have never taken a seat to begin with, to cut it to 11 at 8:12. Mudiay can't shoot tonight but is penetrating & distributing nicely and playing excellent D. Nobody in Stiffsville will believe me when I tell them that Mudiay has outplayed Murray tonight by a wide margin in limited minutes cause points. Denver is switching into mismatches and it's resulting in wide open threes for the Mavs. Lyles and Mudiay are picking it up to another level on both ends as the remaining starters are set to check in at the scorers table and the lead is now 10 at 5:20. That's what you want to see; when a player, or in this case players realize they are about to be subbed in for, don't go hero ball but rather continue to play within the schemes on both ends and simply focus. The starters + Barton - Plumlee are in to close it, which is likely the correct call. Barton chucks a hero-ball 30 footer and Ferrell gets a three point play on the other end at 4:15. Murray nets a three to cut it to 12. It's not looking good for the good guys. They simply dug themselves too large of a hole to hoist themselves out of. Denver's shot selection is dreadful since the starting unit checked in and Barton is clearly pooped. Dallas' entire strategy seems to be, get Denver to switch, post a big onto Murray then score and it works since the Nuggets don't EVER seem to adjust their personnel/strategy when faced with this each and every game. The Nuggets are paced in TPM by Lyles +12 & Harris +17, Murray is -11 despite scoring 22, Barton is only +9 despite scoring 23 with 8 boards and 6 assists and the Mavs win going away, 122-105.
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Final Thoughts: Another head-scratching road-loss for the Nuggets. Insert Lyles for Faried like, yesterday! He's just a better all around player and I applaud Faried's effort but when he's out there it's so easy for the opponent to get any player they desire mismatched onto an undersized defender, whether it's him or more often Murray.
Food for thought: You don't see opponents deploying this strategy when Mudiay is in. Could it be that he is developing the defensive reputation in scouting reports that isn't yet showing up in conversation at Denver Stiffs even though I've been seeing and occasionally mentioning the marked defensive improvement by Mudiay, in tracking TPM for over a year now?
It seems to me that at this stage in his career, Murray hasn't learned how to allocate exertion well enough to play a great game on both ends. He's entirely capable of being elite at one or the other in a given game, but Mudiay is at this point the more complete player. Hell, this is the first season in which Harris has figured out this aspect of play so it's going to take a while. When it happens, watch out.
Side note: Juancho actually improved his TPM per game with a negative 1 score tonight. Baby steps.
Seriously, McBob is what happens when my buddy Alex and Charlie Day have a baby as tall as the two of them combined and are stripped of their respective (I assume) baby Bjorns.
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