FanPost

TPM™ 2017-'18 Game 35 vs Minnesota

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We meet again!

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Still, two basketball nerds.

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Still keepin' the seat warm for The Anchorman.

Denver seeks their first win against the Wolves, the 5th division opponent in 6 games, or; "Stop me if you've heard this one."

Pre-Game Thoughts: The diffence between winning and losing for the Nuggets this season often comes down to plying team defense, especially in terms of rotations and secondary help. No game more vividly illustrated this than the last encounter with the Wolves. In the second half KAT basically only had to get by Plumlee for uncontested layups while the help defender (often Murray) would show briefly, stick in an arm and then back out. Someone who is elite offensively such as Towns sees even proper help defense by a much smaller player as little obstacle so a repeat performance of that shoddy technique simply will not cut it tonight.

KAT unlike most centers has the dual threat of the three ball and excellent ball handling so it is an inevitability that he will get by his primary defender on many occasions. Sound understanding of where to be in rotations will be paramount. Have they discussed this in film study? A professional basketball team should have so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

On December 19th the Nuggets were paced in TPM by Plumlee & Lyles +14, Murray +15 and Jokic +15 and had only one player in the negative, Craig -5. The team as a whole generated a respectable +72 TPM, all numbers which would normally indicate a victory but their inability to make adjustments to curtail the threes and drives by KAT, as well as ten turnovers by Big Honey ultimately were the undoing of the Nuggets on that night.

Butler also had a very good game & like Towns, he did much of his damage in the 4th quarter but this time around Harris will be in the lineup so while neither he nor Craig are equipped to stop an excellent player like "Jeeves", the two of them should have a better chance of at least containing him with some modicum of respectability while maintaining fuel in the tank for crunch time, something that was clearly an issue for Craig last time sans Harris.

Denver has momentum after wining B2B road games in Portland & Golden state, followed by a home victory last night against Utah. Minnesota sits atop the Northwest division and is in 4th place overall in the West, two games (plus one in hand against the Nuggets) ahead of Denver. They are winners of 4 straight and 7 of the last 10 so something has got to give. Hopefully the ball bounces the way of the good guys tonight. Go Nuggets!

Side note: In a post game interview following the last game, Kat mentioned that he takes games with Denver personally and that he had "Backstory" but coyly decided not to pontificate upon that. If there are any Wolves fans reading with knowledge on the matter, would you care to please elaborate on this in the comment section? I'm wondering if perhaps Jokic served him with one of his famous chicken wings in international play, as was the case with Jimmy Butler or if it's something else entirely? Could it be as simple as being in the same draft class and both being classified with similarly high regard as big men?

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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!

(After these messages... Er Nicknames)

Minnesota Roster:

45 Cole "The Ostrich" Aldrich C 29 6-11 253 Kansas $7,300,000
8 "Blink" Nemanja Bjelica (this one's a bit of a thinker)
PF 29 6-10 230 $3,949,999
30 Aaron "Tall Chris Rock" Brooks PG 32 6-0 161 Oregon $1,471,382
3 Anthony "The Noun" Brown SF 25 6-7 224 Stanford
23 Jimmy "Jeeves" Butler SG 28 6-8 236 Marquette $19,301,070
11 Jamal "The Crawdad" Crawford SG 37 6-5 185 Michigan $4,328,000
5 Gorgui "Porgui" Dieng C 27 6-11 251 Louisville $14,112,360
13 Marcus Georges "Dog Will"-Hunt SG 23 6-5 226 Georgia Tech $1,312,611
67 Taj "The Garage" Gibson PF 32 6-9 235 USC $14,000,000
1 "Biased" Tyus Jones PG 21 6-2 184 Duke $1,471,382
15 Shabazz "Matazz" Muhammad SG 25 6-6 221 UCLA $1,577,230
24 Justin "For A Great Low Rate You Can Get Online..." Patton C 20 7-0 236 Creighton $2,247,480
0 Jeff "Chinco" Teague PG 29 6-2 189 Wake Forest $19,000,000
32 Karl-Anthony "Kat (not to be confused with K.O.T.)" Towns C 22 7-0 248 Kentucky $6,216,840
22 Andrew "Wiley" Wiggins SF 22 6-8 202 Kansas $7,574,323

Coach: "Tremendous" Tom Thibodeau

Denver Nuggets Roster


NO. NAME POS AGE
HT
Wt
COLLEGE 2017-2018 SALARY
00 Darrell "Darth" Arthur PF 29 6-9 235 Kansas $7,464,912
5 Will "The People's Champion" Barton SG 26 6-6 190 Memphis $3,533,333
25 Malik "Dancey-Pants" Beasley SG 21 6-5 196 Florida State $1,700,640
21 Wilson "Ill-Will" Chandler SF 30 6-9 225 DePaul $12,016,854
3 Torrey "FUCKING" Craig SG 27 6-6 215 USC Upstate
35 Kenneth "Half Manimal Half Pedestrian" Faried PF 28 6-8 228 Morehead State $12,921,348
14 Gary "New-Money" Harris SG 23 6-4 210 Michigan State $2,550,055
41 Juancho "Ironically, No Room For A Nickname" Hernangomez PF 22 6-9 230 $2,076,840
22 Richard "The Dragon Slayer" Jefferson SF 37 6-7 233 Arizona $1,454,756
15
Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic
C 22 6-10 250 $1,471,382
20 Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon PF 21 6-9 220 Syracuse $1,579,440
7 Trey "Apparently He's K.D. Now" Lyles PF 22 6-10 234 Kentucky $2,441,400
4 Paul "The Anchorman" Millsap PF 32 6-8 246 Louisiana Tech $31,269,231
11 Monte "G-League Money" Morris PG 22 6-3 175 Iowa State
0 Emmanuel "Some Day" Mudiay PG 21 6-5 200 $3,381,480
27 Jamal "The Blue Arrow" Murray PG 20 6-4 207 Kentucky $3,355,320
24 Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee C 27 6-11 255 Duke $14,041,096

Coach: Michael "Mr Imagination" Malone

Update: Millsap had successful left wrist surgery and is expected back some time around the all star break. Mudiay is probable after tweaking his ankle and Plumlee is playing through a twice dislocated finger for the Nuggets. As for Minnesota, No injuries have been reported.

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Data: Open this link in a new tab for the definition of TPM™

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TPM™ Game 35 MIN

Jamal Murray: +21

Emmanuel Mudiay: N/A

Monte Morris: N/A

Gary Harris: +17

Will Barton: +18

Malik Beasley: N/A

Torrey Craig: -3

Wilson Chandler: +3

Juancho Hernangomez: N/A

Richard Jefferson: N/A

Paul Millsap: N/A

Kenneth Faried: N/A

Trey Lyles: +17

Darrell Arthur: -3

Tyler Lydon: N/A

Nikola Jokic: +17

Mason Plumlee: +2

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Total TPM™ starting Game 1 vs. Uta

Jamal Murray: 35 Games +343

Emmanuel Mudiay: 30 Games +293

Monte Morris: 1 Game +1

Gary Harris: 32 Games +467

Will Barton: 34 Games +345

Malik Beasley: 31 Games +66

Torrey Craig: 8 Games -2

Wilson Chandler: 31 Games +240

Juancho Hernangomez: 16 Games -14

Richard Jefferson: 9 Games -2

Paul Millsap: 16 Games +173

Kenneth Faried: 25 Games +46

Trey Lyles: 30 Games +214

Darrell Arthur: 5 Games -14

Tyler Lydon: 1 Games -3

Nikola Jokic: 28 Games +418

Mason Plumlee: 35 Games +94

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Avg. TPM™ Per Game

Jamal Murray: +9.80

Emmanuel Mudiay: +9.77

Monte Morris: +1.00

Gary Harris: +14.59

Will Barton: +10.15

Malik Beasley: +2.13

Torrey Craig: -0.25

Wilson Chandler: +7.74

Juancho Hernangomez: -0.88

Richard Jefferson: -0.22

Paul Millsap: +10.81

Kenneth Faried: +1.84

Trey Lyles: +7.13

Darrell Arthur: -2.80

Tyler Lydon: -3.00

Nikola Jokic: +14.93

Mason Plumlee: +2.69

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TPM Per-Minute Splits Through Game 34:

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New feature: Team TPM statistics

*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak

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Analysis:

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Qtr1- The Nuggets once again trot out Murray, Harris, Chandler, Jokic & Plumlee. The Wolves counter with Teague, Wiggins, Butler, Gibson & Towns. Hastings just said "all of a sudden" in his Kansas/Arkansas accent no less than 5 times in one sentence. "This means something... This is important!" Ally and I Match! Both of us clad in fine burgundy. Denver's poor defensive rebounding in last night's game seems to have carried over. The Wolves are cookin' from downtown (4-4) and lead by a touchdown, 14-7 at 8:21. Make that 5-5 for MIN from distance. The Nuggets look like the Little Sisters of the Poor and I advocate for a Popovichesque hockey line change, as they trail by 12 at 5:30. Malone disagrees, inserting only Barton for Chandler. Lyles is in for Plumlee soon after, followed by Craig for Murray. Had Malone just done as I'd mentioned at least that would have sent a message to the starters. I don't get it. Barton, running the point, is a quick -6 TPM as the lead is 13 at 4:02. He redeems himself with an assist on a Jokic three followed by a three of his own in typical topsy-turvy Barton fashion. The lead is 12 at 1:44 after he once again offers zero resistance on a Teague layup. Darth? Darth is your answer Malone? A Darth sighting at 1:36 in case I hadn't made that clear. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +8, four players are already in the negative and Minnesota leads 35-23 after one.

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Qtr2- These guys look tired. Know who's not tired? Faried, Mudiay & Beasley. Darth, Malone? MIN leads by 16 at 11:00. It's quickly up to 19 on the strength of a 10-0 run. Maybe some fresh bodies would help? Darth is already sucking wind. Let's just leave him out there. Denver inserts Plumlee and Jokic and the defensive rebounding woes commence in earnest. The lead is 17 at 7:20. There is no sugar coating it, Barton is a sieve on defense. He's also terrible at passing on the move offensively. What he IS VERY good at is scoring as the 2 guard. Let's try that some time. The Wolves are capable of letting teams back in but it will require defensive aggression, effort and knowledge, which are all on short supply tonight. Murray is the first Nugget in double figures and the lead is 12 at 5:05. Denver is nowhere to be found on the offensive glass which leads me to believe that is by design, in favor of getting into defensive position. The only problem with that is they largely don't know what to do once they arrive there. May as well crash the offensive glass. The lead is 14 with 2:39 to go. Harris has yet to score with under 2 minutes to play. Big Honey is the 2nd Nugget in double digits. No players for either team are in any sort of foul trouble. Denver is paced in TPM by Murray +16 & Jokic +18, 6 Nuggets are in the red and they trail 71-58 at the half.

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Halftime: Smoke break? Yes please!

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Qtr3- Harris is finally off the snide with a three. Denver looks to be finally in attack mode while the Wolves are perhaps resting on their laurels. Well, that lasted for exactly two possessions. The Target Center is quiet but the lead is still double figures. KAT has his league leading 28th 2D already at 8:32. The refs have completely swallowed their whistles at the moment and the lead is 13 at 7:04. Did Hastings just say that Denver moves well without the basketball? Could have fooled me. Taj is hacking the bejesus out of Jokic and likely getting away with it due to Jokic's constant complaining to officials. The lead is back up to 16 at 5:02. Barton & Lyles check in for Plumlee and Chandler at this point. This has been a disastrous period defensively for Big Honey. Now is the point in the game that a good coach would insert people who have yet to play in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle, as the lead is 18 at 4:04 and what they are doing is clearly not working. Denver cuts it to 10 on the strength of an 8-0 run with the insertion of Lyles & Barton, who are the third and 4th Nuggets in double digits. Barton is finally out of the red and playing with pace. Lyles blocks a jumper leading to a Barton three and the lead is down to five! Huge third period for Harris, though most observers likely did not even notice. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +12, Murray +16 and Harris +18 and have cut the lead to six, 88-82 after three. There is no doubt in my mind that Malone will play Barton, Lyles and Harris for the rest of the game.

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Qtr4- Lyles starts things off with a multiple hockey-assisted 4 point play and the lead is down to 4. A Barton alley-oop to Plumlee cuts it to two at 10:50. MIN is ice cold & Barton ties it up at 10:29 on the strength of a 20-6 run! Plumlee makes five in double figures. Butler stems the tide with a three. Barton is starting to go into hero mode and Malone needs to put the kibosh on that. MIN leads by 5 at 9:11 (always remember) Yes, I just made a 911 joke in the 4th quarter of a hotly contested basketball game. Too soon? It's 95-94 Wolves at 8:10. Denver takes the lead on two Lyles FT's at 7:23! This was KAT's 5th foul which is obviously enormous. Denver is in the bonus at 6:39 with a one point lead. The Wolves capitalize on consecutive TO's by Barton and Harris, as they retake the lead by three at 5:47. Jokic is in for Plumlee and needs to reverse pattern from his third period play if the Nuggets wish to win. Taj is amazingly called for a foul defending Jokic, who cuts it to one at 4:18. Both teams are in the bonus now at 3:19, as Minnesota leads by 5 after a horrendous make-up call in favor of Taj vs Big Honey. Barton fouls Wiggins leading to a 4 point play and a 9 point lead. Denver appears to be running out of steam as MIN is on an 8-0 run. Jokic cuts it to 7 at 2:18 with a chippy.

Barton makes it 4 on a three point play that disqualifies KAT with 6 fouls at 1:54. Marlowe declares "Bye Felicia!" The Peoples Champion sticks a three and the lead is down to one at 0:51. "Stay turnt" -declares an obviously egg-nogged Marlowe. Butler gets a bucket and the lead is now three. Murray hits two in the pressure cooker and the lead is back to one with 0:22 to go. MIN is unable to inbound and is forced to call a time out; their last. Denver has one remaining. Harris forces a jump ball on the eventual inbound to Butler who wins the tip and Taj comes up with the ball in the ensuing scrum. He's fouled by Barton with 0:13 to go and Teague has appeared to suffer an ugly knee injury during the ruckus. You absolutely hate to see that. With that said, I just multi-tasked and added Tyus Jones in fantasy. Taj hits 1-2 and Denver has the ball, down two. You've got to go for the 2 here and send it to OT even on the road, with KAT and Teague both out. Barton is fouled with 0:06 to play and he ties it up at the line! What a crazy finish this is turning out to be! With no timeouts, Butler is forced to heave from beyond half court and misses so that forced time out on the Wolves failed inbound turned out to be huge. It's all knotted up at 114 at the end of regulation. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +10 Harris +14, Lyles +15, Barton +16, & Murray +19

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Overtime: As I predicted, Lyles, Barton and Harris indeed played all of the fourth and are out there to open overtime. Taj gets his 5th foul at 4:40. Lyles has a 2D. Taj fouls out at 4:27! It is a no brainer to now go to Jokic in the post. Not so but Harris drills a three. Denver leads by three with 3:30 to go. Harris gets a ticky-tack foul on a Butler three and he hits 2-3, cutting it to one. A Murray to Lyles Drive and dish results in a three point lead with 2:36 to go but Butler ties it with a three on the ensuing play! Tremendous Ball movement results in a Lyles dunk and a two point lead for Denver. Butler is fouled by Lyles and he hits two, tying it up at 1:46. Following an empty possession by Denver he sinks a two and they take a two point lead at 1:14. Harris is the 6th Nugget in double figures. It's Butler vs the Nuggets at the Moment and Denver is mysteriously not attacking the paint with Taj and Kat both out. Jokic is fouled and sinks 2, tying it up again at 1:06. Butler has taken the last ten shots for MIN and why not? Any chance the Wolves draw one up for Hunt on this possession? Butler is double teamed which leads to a wide open bucket for their 2nd best option Crawford and the Wolves lead by two yet again with 0:48 to go. Denver is out of time outs and MIN has one remaining. Murray misses a three and the Wolves have it. The refs absolutely bail out Butler on an o.o.c. drive and he hits one of two FT's. That's a real shame. Lyles misses a three that would have tied it and that's the ball game. Barton, Lyles & Harris did in fact play all of the 4th, OT and much of the third which makes zero sense to me no matter how well they were playing. Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic, Harris & Lyles +17 Barton +18 & Murray +21 but lose in a spirited effort, 128-125.

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Final Thoughts: Horrendous execution by an exhausted 8 man (plus Darth) rotation. Horrendous rotations by a mediocre Malone, and yet they managed to sill make it a game. That counts for something and you like to see this fortitude on the 2nd night of a B2B. Let's hope that the injury to Teague is not as bad as it appeared to be.

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