This lineup is far scarier on paper (& in Photo) currently than they are in reality but they're undoubtedly a team which no opponent cares to to face in the playoffs, once they've had time to iron out the kinks.
Still dangerous but for whom? I made these out of a poster I had, the day he was traded to NY.
Still keepin' the seat warm for The Anchorman.
The Nuggets square off with the Thunder on the road, midway though a deceptively daunting December docket.
Pre-Game Thoughts: "Iron out the Kinks" would make an excellent band name.
Anywho, OKC is still struggling to find themselves after the off season additions of PG13 & Melo. All of their "big three" are still highly capable weapons but predictably all of their numbers are down with only one basketball to go around. Westbrook is still IMHO the best player in the league not named LeBron, despite his poorer shooting numbers this season and perhaps more remarkable even than last year, he is averaging almost 23 points & a 3D again despite having to share the ball with two other ball-dependent players. His 4.8 turnovers and 2-1 A/T ratio are unsightly but I don't think many would argue the notion that he's an elite player in spite of those numbers. That's definitely something to think about as we obsess over turnovers.
They currently reside in the 8th and final playoff position in the West, a spot which I fully expect them to climb from by the time it's all said and done. Their point differential per game is currently 6th and that is about where I envision them finishing the regular season. That goal should be highly attainable when you consider that they are only 2.5 games out of 4th in the West, yet they are still only 4th of the five teams in the highly competitive Northwest standings.
The absence of Adams will most likely play a big role in the outcome tonight as his team-first mentality, willingness to do the dirty work and ability to play with grit & aggression (something that Denver has struggled against on a nightly basis), not to mention the fact that he is a hell of a player even in terms of the box score (he, not any of the big three, leads the team in PER) considering that he never has plays run for him. The moment OKC lost him to injury in the last encounter, was the moment that OKC lost the game in Denver.
As I look back on that last meeting between these two squads I'm reminded by the results, of the hit or miss impact that Emmanuel Mudiay has had on the team this year. People ask me often (more accurately they often scold me) about how Mudiay's TPM numbers don't match up with the advanced metrics and quite often the eye test (Spoiler alert: They aren't necessarily supposed to, as they measure very different things) so I thought I'd offer up what little insight I have on the matter, which admittedly confounds me as well. All that I've been able to say up until this point, is that I'm tracking every play, that he doesn't often get burned defensively, that his offensive errors don't frequently lead to points scored on the other end & that since I'm only tracking scoring plays, the "noise" involved in weighing the severity of mistakes in non-scoring possessions, plays a large role in the discrepancy but I don't feel like that is a succinct enough answer either for me, or the Mudiay critics.
The last time these two teams met the Nuggets were lead to victory in a sensational 4th quarter performance by Mudiay; a game in which he amassed a season high +30 TPM. A repeat performance is highly unlikely, not just due to the fact that he's injured but also mired in a several game slump (a stretch in which he's gone from 2nd to very soon, 6th in TPM/G) that has been hard to watch. He showed signs of breaking out of it prior to his injury in the last game but for whatever reason, the bench unit plays extremely poor individual and team defense when he is out there, despite his very stout (the last few games excluded) individual defense and DBBIQ.
I've honestly been baffled as to why this is so I've done some critical thinking on the matter. One thing that is important to keep in mind is that the three errors which Mudiay most frequently is guilty of (fumbling the ball out of bounds or making a tough pass-turnover on plays that don't result in points on the other end, being unable to finish at the rim and taking poor shots) are the type of errors that look extraordinarily bad no matter what lens you view the game from behind. I believe this has a large impact on the emotional processing of events for many fans and it tints their mind's eye. What is equally important about these errors is that none of which are tracked in TPM or even +- because they don't occur on scoring plays so I think a big part of the discrepancy between advanced metrics AND the eye test, & his actual TPM can be attributed to these errors. Am I supposed to incorporate poor shot selection/finishing into TPM, rendering it no longer an assessment of contextualized plus minus in scoring plays? I'd argue, that is precisely what those other metrics are for and that no statistic including TPM should be used in a stand alone basis for opinion.
Thinking beyond that, I considered some less obvious contributive factors. Are his teammates unhappy with him for some behind the scenes reason? Do they simply put forth more effort when they are out there with starters? Clearly, playing with Harris, Jokic and to a degree Chandler helps team defense out but that doesn't account for why Mudiay's presence seems to lower the effectiveness of those players as well. I wish I knew. They all benefit from his ability to penetrate at will and dish to the three point line on offense, A skill that ONLY Mudiay possesses amongst this roster and perhaps they are expending the majority of their energy on that end as a result.
One theory I have is that his obvious (IMHO) knowledge of defensive rotations and being in the correct rotational position following screens and or switches, doesn't jibe with other bench players like Faried, Juancho, Barton and the improving but not yet above average Lyles & Beasley, who have a complete lack of DBBIQ and as a result, certain opposing players are double covered unnecessarily which leaves others uncontested. This would mesh with the fact that on the rare instances in which Mudiay is deployed alongside the starters, their numbers also go down because they aren't exactly world beaters on D either.
Patrick, you didn't seriously just say the fact that nearly all advanced metrics indicate that Mudiay's mere appearance on the court lowers the team's effectiveness is because he is too good at team defense did you? Well no, not really. It isn't as if he's a defensive stalwart by any means, he simply knows where to be positionally but when you have one player going about things the right way in a team setting while all or most others are not, does the possibility exist that lineup dependent data can be heavily skewed as a result? You bet!
There is no doubt in my mind through watching Mudiay play (this season, as this wasn't the case in his two previous years) that Mudiay "gets it" defensively, at least in terms of the way I was taught to play rotational, peripheral, team defense by the late great Steve Wilson and as a result he stands out in a good way but simultaneously in a way that is detrimental to his lineup related effectiveness, because more often than not he's the only one doing it.
Imagine for a moment, if Chris Harris of the Broncos played zone defense while the other ten defenders were in man to man coverage at all times. How would that go over? I firmly believe that a unit consisting of Mudiay, Harris, Chandler, Millsap & Jokic would be amongst the very top units in terms of both +- and TPM, due to having some semblance of cohesion in defensive theory, not to mention a multidimensional offense.
Could it be that Mudiay seems like such a misfit due to the Nuggets inability to deploy him frequently in a unit that values team defense? It's something to at least consider if you ask me.
I'm going to be paying closer attention to this upon his return from injury. Either way, despite what advanced metrics would indicate, I think it would be safe to say that Mudiay could stand to benefit from playing more minutes with other players who have a high DBBIQ but the problem is the Nuggets simply do not possess many in their current active roster. Only Harris and to a degree Jokic qualify in my eyes, which I think further muddies the waters in disseminating information from the advanced metrics, which certainly do not look good for the young PG.
I'm glad I had the chance to elaborate in a single post I can then link inquiries to and I thank the 1-5 of you who took the time to read my thoughts. Go Nuggets!
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And now what none of you come here for; how about some basketball nerdery?!?!
(After these messages... Er Nicknames)
Denver Roster:
Will "The People's Champion" Barton,
Juancho "Ironically, No Room For A Nickname" Hernangomez
Richard "The Dragon Slayer" Jefferson
Kenneth "The Manimal" Faried
Trey "Bien" Lyles
Darrell "Darth" Arthur
Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon
Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic
Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee
Michael "Mr Imagination" Malone
Oklahoma City Roster:
Russell "Rocky Horror" Westbrook
Raymond "Insert Fat Joke" Felton
Terrance "Thunder From Down Under " Ferguson
Carmelo "CarMElo AllforME" Anthony
Josh "Seriously, Who Is This?" Huestis
Steven "I Eat Hobbits For 2nd Breakfast" Adams
Update: Millsap had successful left wrist surgery and is expected back some time around the all star break. Mudiay is questionable after tweaking his ankle vs New Orleans. Lydon has been called up and I'm very confused as to just how many players are currently on the active roster for the Nuggets. As for OKC, Adams is out due to concussion, Durant left long ago, 'Dipo and Sabonis are new men in Indy, George, Melo and Westbrook are new men in OKC & Singler is rocking a mini-man-bun.
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Data: Open this link in a new tab for the definition of TPM™
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TPM™ Game 30 OKC
Jamal Murray: +3
Emmanuel Mudiay: N/A
Monte Morris: N/A
Gary Harris: +22
Will Barton: +7
Malik Beasley: -2
Torrey Craig: -1
Wilson Chandler: +0
Juancho Hernangomez: N/A
Richard Jefferson: N/A
Paul Millsap: N/A
Kenneth Faried: N/A
Trey Lyles: +19
Darrell Arthur: N/A
Tyler Lydon: N/A
Nikola Jokic: +11
Mason Plumlee: +9
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Total TPM™ starting Game 1 vs. Uta
Jamal Murray: 30 Games +277
Emmanuel Mudiay: 29 Games +286
Monte Morris: 1 Game +1
Gary Harris: 28 Games +403
Will Barton: 29 Games +301
Malik Beasley: 27 Games +60
Torrey Craig: 3 Games +10
Wilson Chandler: 26 Games +187
Juancho Hernangomez: 15 Games -14
Richard Jefferson: 8 Games -2
Paul Millsap: 16 Games +173
Kenneth Faried: 25 Games +46
Trey Lyles: 25 Games +154
Darrell Arthur: 4 Games -11
Tyler Lydon: 1 Games -3
Nikola Jokic: 23 Games +332
Mason Plumlee: 30 Games +67
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
Jamal Murray: +9.23
Emmanuel Mudiay: +9.86
Monte Morris: +1.00
Gary Harris: +14.39
Will Barton: +10.38
Malik Beasley: +2.22
Torrey Craig: +3.33
Wilson Chandler: +7.19
Juancho Hernangomez: -0.93
Richard Jefferson: -0.25
Paul Millsap: +10.81
Kenneth Faried: +1.84
Trey Lyles: +6.16
Darrell Arthur: -2.75
Tyler Lydon: -3.00
Nikola Jokic: +14.43
Mason Plumlee: +2.23
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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 29:
New feature: Team TPM statistics
*Credit DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (nerdy) baby (TPM™) learned to speak
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Analysis:
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Qtr1- The Nuggets start with Murray, Harris, Craig, Chandler & Plumlee. OKC deploys the dynamic unit of Westbrook, Roberson, Melo, George, and on this night, Johnson. Kobe's number(s) are being retired tonight (yawn). PURPLE! Good job Ally. Denver is switching everything defensively, which isn't terrible in theory with this unit. OKC jumps out to a 6-0 start. They extend the lead to 10-2 and the Nuggets use a timeout at 8:23. Craig and Murray are experiencing some confusion offensively in terms of cutting and spacing. Jokic is first off the pine along with Barton at 5:31. Denver is wilting under physical pressure as has been the case much of the season and they trail 19-6 at 5:02. The Nuggets have taken some deep breaths, done their daily-affirmation mirror exercises and seem to be getting things going a bit. The lead is 9 at 2:25. Harris has three of the Nuggets 6 turnovers. Denver is paced in TPM by a paltry +4 for Harris, everyone but Barton (+2) & Craig (+1) are in the red and they trail 32-18 after one.
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Qtr2- The Nuggets continue to switch on D vs the Thunder's bench unit. Denver still can't seem to accomplish anything they set out to tonight and trail by 13 at 10:02. Both teams are ice cold as of current. Lyles cuts it to ten with a three. Jokic is starting to take advantage of the much smaller Grant & Patterson for OKC and Denver cuts the lead to 8 at 8:16. The lack of front court size beyond Adams and Johnson for the Thunder is startling. Denver cuts it to 6 at 5:11 and Lyles is starting to get going in terms of all around play, along with Big Honey. Johnson picks up his third foul but remains in. Murray keeps turning his head on D, Roberson sees that, changes position each time and is scoring chippies at will as a result. The lead is 8 with 2:49 to play. Marlowe lied; Johnson has only one foul. Westbrook is the only player for either squad in double figures. It is so strange to see such low scoring out of these two teams. Denver is paced in TPM by Harris +10 but trail 44-52 at the half.
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Halftime: Smoke break? Sure. Gotta get it in before the storm moves in.
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Qtr3- Ally is having sound issues in her halftime interview with Jordi. I blame Mudiay... Maybe George Karl to a degree. OKC calls a quick timeout at 10:48 despite Denver only cutting into the lead by one point. The Avs lead the Pens 1-0 going into the 2nd period. Plumlee is having a very good game and getting better as it goes. He blocks Westbrook leading to a Harris layup and the lead is down to 5. Harris is fouled by Westbrook as he went up for a dunk and comes down hard. It was a good, hard but clean play but not the result you want. He gets up slowly and remains in but that one smarted. It is silent in the OKC corporate sponsor arena right now. Denver cuts it to two by virtue of a Craig steal/drive, on the strength of an 8-0 run. Murray ties it at 54 at 8:00! Plumdog is everywhere. I am very impressed with Torrey Craig as a defensive player on the perimeter. It is STILL dead silent at 5:54 with OKC up one. Murray is the first Nugget to reach double digits. Denver takes the lead on a Chandler reverse dunk at 5:00. Craig sinks a three and it's a 5 point lead at 4:43. Harris is balling since the hard fall. I tell you, this crowd isn't doing the Thunder any favors but it's definitely a chicken & egg scenario as this is a notoriously raucous arena, traditionally. Still no Jokic at 3:30. OKC takes a three point lead at 3:21 after consecutive threes & on the strength of an 8-0 run of their own. This quarter has been a series of runs for each team. Jokic is in for a gassed Plumlee at this point. Barton & Lyles are in as well and this unit looks understandably fresher. Harris & Craig are the 2nd and third Nuggets in double figures. Craig ties it up with a three and he has a career high 14 at 1:45. OKC is all perimeter. The Nuggets extend the lead to 6 with under a minute to play on yet another 9-0 run. Denver is paced in TPM by Barton +10, Harris +18 and lead it 76-70 after three.
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Qtr4- Craig is a remarkable +5 in TPM which is notable due to the fact that he's been on Westbrook the majority of the evening. FTW! Jokic is down with a twisted ankle for the third time this season! He exits and with it, likely all hope of pulling out a rare road upset tonight. Lyles sticks a step back three, Jokic checks in, the Nuggets lead is 9 and we have ourselves an X-mas miracle. Westbrook checks in at 9:41. The lead is 6 after 6 straight by OKC and the crowd is awakening. It seems to be directly tied with Westbrook and his activity. It's Westbrook vs the Nuggets as we approach the halfway mark of the 4th and Barton is still chucking from distance despite his 0-8 shooting. Westbrook, er OKC cuts it to three with 4:04 to go. This game would not even be in question if Barton had made 1/4 of his shots or better yet, drove more frequently. It's tied at 92 after a Westbrook jumper at 3:45. Melo & George have combined for 12 points at 2:12! Because Jokic came off the bench it seems he's not available in crunch time, so ya, it DOES matter who starts after all. It's knotted at 94 with :48 to go as Denver's been held scoreless for 2.5 minutes, or roughly the time since Jokic went out. He's in for this late possession, a disjointed one at that, which results in no points. OKC has the final possession with :15 to go and Plumlee is back in to play D. Jokic and Lyles are the 4th and 5th Nuggets in double digits. I can just feel a heartbreaking Westbrook game winner looming, as can anyone who has watched him play in the past. Craig is in to defend him. He fouls Westbrook as he was fumbling the ball out of bounds and Russ hits 1-2. It's a one point game with 1.7 to go. Denver calls a timeout to advance the ball to half court. Jokic is back in for Plumlee. A HORRIBLE inbound play leads to a HORRIBLE Harris "shot" and as Reggie Watts not famously enough opined, "na na na, nana, nah, heartbreak!" Denver is paced in TPM by Jokic +11, Lyles +19 and Harris +22 but lose it 95-94 in Oklahoma City.
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Final Thoughts: Fire Brian Shaw! When is the last time The Nuggets drew up a halfway decent crunch time play or inbound pass?
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We suck again!
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