"Years of acquired knowledge in basketball theory tells me that there is no way the Heat can survive sub-50 degree weather, therefor, it's a Nuggets W, right?"
Pre-Game Thoughts: Every player on the Miami Heat roster is either a combo guard or a PF/C combo. "And that may beeeee, all there iiiiis to know!"
Well I suppose one more thing requires comment: Whiteside, Johnson & Johnson and Dragic are BEASTS against Denver, and many other teams but I don't think I've ever seen any of them have an off night against Denver, not even the Johnson's before they became a thing.
I have zero numbers in front of me to support this and am drawing entirely upon my memory, and I used to smoke my share, your share, everybody's share in my 20's, just prior to it becoming legal when I'd lost interest (my life in a nutshell) so take it for what it's worth.
Dragic is one of those irritating players that you love him if he's on your squad, and you hate him if he's not, like Ginoboli, or Harden. Personally, I love him because he's on my fantasy team, but will be throwing things at my tv tonight, due in no small part to his antics, because Nuggets > fantasy 100%. Bro's before hoes (or whatever).
Denver Roster:
Will "The People's Champion" Barton,
Juancho "Ironically, No Room For A Nickname" Hernangomez
Richard "The Dragon Slayer" Jefferson
Kenneth "The Manimal" Faried
Trey "Bien" Lyles
Darrell "Darth" Arthur
Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon
Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic
Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee
Michael "Mr Imagination" Malone
Miami Roster:
Derrick "Good Night Jim-Bob" Walton Jr.
Tyler "Oh Goodie, The Nuggets" Johnson
Rodney "Well Slap A Celery Stalk Between My Cheeks And Call Me" McGruder
Josh "The Only Wing" Richardson
Update: Juancho is out with "The Kissing Disease" for the Nuggets. As for MIA, Nugget killers James Johnson and Hassan Whiteside are both clear for take off, expected to start and no longer M.I.A. for MIA. Terrific! McGruder however, is out with a knee injury.
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Data: Open this link in a new tab for the definition of TPM™
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TPM™ Game 9 MIA
Jamal Murray: -5
Emmanuel Mudiay: +18
Monte Morris: N/A
Gary Harris: +5
Will Barton: +6
Malik Beasley: +0
Torrey Craig: N/A
Wilson Chandler: +1
Juancho Hernangomez: N/A
Richard Jefferson: N/A
Paul Millsap: +26
Kenneth Faried: +2
Trey Lyles: N/A
Darrell Arthur: N/A
Tyler Lydon: N/A
Nikola Jokic: +6
Mason Plumlee -1
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Total TPM™ starting Game 1 vs. Uta
Jamal Murray: 9 Games +101
Emmanuel Mudiay: 9 Games +127
Monte Morris: 0 Games +0
Gary Harris: 9 Games +114
Will Barton: 9 Games +84
Malik Beasley: 9 Games +9
Torrey Craig: 0 Games +0
Wilson Chandler: 9 Games +57
Juancho Hernangomez: 2 Games -9
Richard Jefferson: 2 Games -4
Paul Millsap: 9 Games +115
Kenneth Faried: 8 Games +25
Trey Lyles: 5 Games -2
Darrell Arthur: 1 Games +2
Tyler Lydon: 0 Games +0
Nikola Jokic: 9 Games +127
Mason Plumlee: 9 Games +35
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
Jamal Murray: +11.22
Emmanuel Mudiay: +14.11
Monte Morris: N/A
Gary Harris: +12.67
Will Barton: +9.33
Malik Beasley: +1.00
Torrey Craig: N/A
Wilson Chandler: +6.33
Juancho Hernangomez: -4.50
Richard Jefferson: -2.00
Paul Millsap: +12.78
Kenneth Faried: +3.13
Trey Lyles: -0.40
Darrell Arthur: +2.00
Tyler Lydon: N/A
Nikola Jokic: +14.11
Mason Plumlee: +3.89
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TPM™ Per 36 Minutes Through Game 8:
*Credit to DomP on Per 36 Spreadsheet
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Analysis:
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Qtr1- Same starting unit for Denver. MIA is countering with Dragic, Waiters, Richardson, White & Whiteside. Poor spacing and Iso ball to begin for Denver. Whiteside pwning for MIA. We get our first "sizzle the pits" out of Marlowe, on the year. Poor defensive start for Murray. He doesn't seem used to defending against lefties. The Nuggets are once again struggling to defend the three. Jokic is the first Nugget in double figures at 6:00, as Bartlee check in. It's a relatively evenly matched game as subs for each team start filtering in, at 23-20 MIA with 4:47 to go. Sap has GOT to get better at closing out on three point shooters. He's been the prime culprit for the Nuggets this season. Ill advised alley-oop by Mudiay is the 5th TO already for the good guys. Denver is getting fast break opportunities, they are just going sour each and every time. Jokic paces Denver in TPM at +7, Murray is an unsightly -8 and the Heat mean business tonight. The three ball is the difference so far as MIA leads 37-28 after one.
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Qtr2- Farieasly check in, as is the usual 2nd period pattern. This unit of Faried, Beasley, Jokic, Mudiay and Barton is playing with better defensive intensity than previous units. It's great to see Mudiay's mid-range game maturing. Barton is intentionally fouled 2x after a steal, but only gets a common foul, where he makes 1-2 (remaining a concerning 50% from the charity stripe on the year). The Nuggets 2nd teamers + Big Honey have cut the deficit to 3, vs what seems to be a less than threatening Miami bench squad. Connor McDavid has to start delivering on last year's promise in order for my fantasy hockey team to repeat as champions. Denver is starting to force a lot of TO's now. It would seem that Whiteside may be on a minute restriction. Cameron Dittman just "Liked" Tanya Gaurmer's photo on my facebook stalk-ticker (yes I still have that. Jeaolus?) Everyone is cold for both teams as of current, and play is uber-sloppy. To his credit, Sap has been far more active with his patented fast hands, defensively in the past two games. His three point shooting has been a pleasant surprise addition. Murray is a non-factor thus far. Barton goes 1-2 from the line yet again. The starters for MIA have outplayed those of Denver in this game. Murray finally drains a three at 3:45. Whiteside picks up his 3rd foul at 3:31 and takes a seat. Sap is the 2nd Nugget in double digits. Has Dragic missed yet? Yes, but only once. Thanks Marlowe. I don't understand why the Nuggets aren't going at the rack with Hassan out. Denver is paced in TPM by Millsap with +15. No one else is in double figures, as Miami leads heading into the locker room, 58-51.
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Halftime: Smoke break? Don't mind if I do!
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Qtr3- The Nuggets are starting to double Whiteside FINALLY and it's marginally more effective. Well what do you know? A Nugget (Sap) realizes that you have to pump fake Hassan. These refs are calling the ticky-tack's tight, letting the biggun's by, and no flop goes unrewarded on this evening. Big Honey with a 2d at 8:00. Sap is having a great all around game tonight (without glancing at the stat sheet). Yep. Story checks out. Jokic would be too, if not for all of the freebies he's given up all night in the paint. Somebody needs to piss off Murray. He clearly is more focused then. Miami won't like him when he's angry. Chandler takes up by far the least amount of space on my pad of paper. Jokic and Barton battle for the most with all of their give and take. Murray is absolving himself nicely of his first half defensive sins. It's always nice to see that sort of in-game growth out of a 20 year old. He's got all-star written all over him. Denver takes a 2 point lead on the strength of a 14-5 run. I never knew that J.J. was a local guy, out of Cheyenne Wyoming. Dragic basically hacks Murray while attempting a layup, but gets an and-one for his efforts. I hate scoring that a -3 TPM for Murray but I must. Miami is back into TO mode. Sap has a season high 23 points. Why can the Nuggets NEVER seem to sink 2 at the line? Not a single charge call tonight by these refs has been correct, either way, as J. Johnson nabs his 4th foul on one at 1:45. Mudiay just has so much more offensive and defensive awareness this season. He's back to making those last-second-decision passes that he was so adept at as a rookie. Sap paces Denver with an impressive +28 TPM. The only other Nugget in double figures is Mudiay with +10, as Denver leads heading into the 4th, 76-71.
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Qtr 4- It's good to see Chandler make 2 threes consecutively. Jokic hacks the living hell out of Olynyk, and there's no call. Miami is now ice cold from distance. We'll take it! I don't think we'll be seeing "The Dragon Slayer", so named for his ridding the Nuggets of the Jameer problem, but it would seem appropriate tonight, if any. Excellent block on a three attempt, followed by a dunk, both by Mudiay. It would be difficult to choose between him and Sap for MVP today, if not for the discrepancy in minutes. Denver now sports a 9 point lead with a little over 7:00 to play. Mudiay is now the 3rd Nugget in double figures. This game hasn't been pretty by any means, but I think that's not likely against the "handsy" Heat. Sap seems to have blown his wad earlier. At this point (4:20 remains), yes, Mudiay has been the Nuggets MVP on this night. Contest all you want, but defense is just as big a part of the game as offense. MIA closes it too 3 on a bomb by Waiters, on yet another late close-out, this one by Chandler, with 3 to go. Mudiay is going cold, but still shooting, and Denver no longer has an MVP tonight. MIA takes a 2 point lead on a Richardson three, on STILL ANOTHER late close out, this one by Harris. Hastings talks about chili too frequently. Barton is in to run the point. I don't disagree with removing Mudiay, but Murray should be in there. Harris makes up for his previous error by tying it up on a bank shot with 0:47 to go. MIA retakes the lead on the next possession on a blow-by layup by Waiters. Denver needs to pull out their first close game of the season. Gotta go to Jokic here. Not bad having a 2nd option like Sap, who is fouled. GOTTA drill two this time. He misses the front end. Christ on a crutch, he missed 'em both! Chandler & Harris are now also in double figures, bringing the total to 5. Denver sends Dragic to the line with 0:24 to go. he misses the front end, up 1. He drills the 2nd. Denver doesn't call a timeout, and SAP DRAWS A FOUL ON A THREE POINTER! For the love of all that is holy, please sink at least one, will you? Sap makes all three, Denver once again has an MVP tonight and Denver is up by 1, with 12 to go, no timeouts remain for either side says Marlowe, Marlowe lied. MIA calls their (last?). Waiters hoists one that rims out, and Denver wins, 95-93! Millsap paves the way with a +26 TPM
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Final Thoughts- This is starting to look a little bit more like a basketball club, ladies and gents! Too many turnovers, but like I said, I doubt most teams don't fall into that trap vs. the Heat.
Tomorrow night's TPM piece will not be submitted until the weeeee hours of the morning, as I have unbreakable plans until at least midnight. S'pose that's good timing for daylight savings time to fall back, eh?
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