"Denver seeks revenge on the team that effectively eliminated them from the playoffs last season"
Pre-Game Thoughts: As an outspoken fan of the Bosnian Beast, it wasn't always delightful for me to write about my favorite team last year, either pre or post trade. It's rather easy to say in hindsight that I was not a fan of the trade, but everyone who follows TPM knows that I was ardently opposed to it when it happened, and still am. Here were my "Final Thoughts" from my TPM piece last season in the most recent face-off with PDX on March 28th:
Final Thoughts- END THE JANIGHTMERE! Free Mudiay! God we suck at tanking! I said it at the time, and it bears repeating. Who cares if Juka wanted out? Denver was not winning a championship this season either way, so at LEAST hold onto him until the off season rather than trading him to your biggest division rival, so that they can overtake you not just on the season, but in the near future, for pennies on the dollar. It was simply put, a HORRENDOUS trade.
Had it been an even swap, Nurkic for Plumlee, it'd have been far more palatable, 'cause clearly Nurkic and Jokic weren't going to work together, and I quite like what Mason brings to the team. Would it have been a slight downgrade in my opinion? Sure, but not one I didn't understand, given the way Juka basically forced Denver's hand, but having to include an extra pick to me was a bad move. I'd have vastly preferred to leave him at home ala Anre Miller, and tried to get a more equitable deal than what the Nuggets settled for, in the off season.
With that being said, I hope Juka lays an egg tonight, something that he's not incapable of and that Denver can manage to pull out a victory without accruing any injuries, by any margin. I won't ask for any more than that.
To borrow a line from one of my favorite ex-Nuggets-writers Jeff Morton, "Make no mistake", Nurkic, while an excellent center with all-star potential is no where near the player that Jokic is and we can hope that Big Honey took the lopsided match-up vs Juka last season as an insult and comes out with revenge on his mind. Jokic is nothing if not a supremely competitive player, so I like his and the Nuggets chances tonight, but it will be no easy task on the road in Portland.
I would be remiss in writing a pre-game assessment of the Blazers without mentioning that the key to victory is containing to some degree, their small-school super-star back-court of Lilard & McCollum. The mere removal of Jameer from the scenario vastly improves this iteration of the Nuggets' chances, not to mention that both Murray & Mudiay have been extremely good defensively at the point of attack in a way the Nuggets haven't seen since the pre-Anre era.
To HELL with your nearly-useless defensive rating metrics which list Jokic as Denver's top defensive player, despite his complete absence of rim protection, help defense or close-out ability. Sure he is rather adept at getting steals and is a superior defensive rebounder, but any statistic that lists him as a better defensive player than Millsap, Plumlee or either of the Nuggets' PG's is utter hogwash. I'll step off of my soapbox only after mentioning that I've tracked TPM for 84 games now and if he were any sort of defender to speak of, he'd average no less than 1/3rd more in TPM, and I guarantee that in opponent's game-plans he is viewed as a non-obstacle on defense. He is however a supremely gifted offensive player, with an unparalleled offensive BBIQ and Denver will need to see that in full effect to pull out a W tonight.
Denver Roster:
Will "The People's Champion" Barton,
Juancho "Ironically, No Room For A Nickname" Hernangomez
Richard "The Dragon Slayer" Jefferson
Kenneth "The Manimal" Faried
Trey "Bien" Lyles
Darrell "Darth" Arthur
Tyler "Not just Anunobody" Lydon
Nikola "Big Honey" Jokic
Mason "Plumdog Millionaire" Plumlee
Michael "Mr Imagination" Malone
Portland Roster:
Wade "The 4th Baldwin Brother" Baldwin IV
CJ "Slap Some Specs & Suspenders On Him & You've Gotta Admit, He's Urkel" McCollum
Pat "...But I Can Jump" Connaughton
Maurice "The Space Cowboy" Harkless
Al-Farouq "The Chief" (Why mess with a good thing?) Aminu
Caleb "Not Only Can I Swan, I'll" Swanigan
Jusuf "The Bosnian Beast" Nurkic
Meyers "Gargantuan Bieber" Leonard
Update: Gary Harris is out with a sore right shoulder, for the Nuggets. As for PDX, The Chief is out with a high ankle sprain, "caused by his own vicious dribble off his leg -- out another two weeks" -sebastiant from Blazers Edge.
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Data: Open this link in a new tab for the definition of TPM™
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TPM™ Game 14 PDX
Jamal Murray: +3
Emmanuel Mudiay: -4
Monte Morris: N/A
Gary Harris: N/A
Will Barton: +3
Malik Beasley: +0
Torrey Craig: N/A
Wilson Chandler: +22
Juancho Hernangomez: N/A
Richard Jefferson: -5
Paul Millsap: +7
Kenneth Faried: +2
Trey Lyles: +4
Darrell Arthur: N/A
Tyler Lydon: N/A
Nikola Jokic: +2
Mason Plumlee -2
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Total TPM™ starting Game 1 vs. Uta
Jamal Murray: 14 Games +125
Emmanuel Mudiay: 14 Games +186
Monte Morris: 0 Games +0
Gary Harris: 12 Games +137
Will Barton: 14 Games +136
Malik Beasley: 14 Games +9
Torrey Craig: 0 Games +0
Wilson Chandler: 14 Games +83
Juancho Hernangomez: 3 Games -16
Richard Jefferson: 4 Games -7
Paul Millsap: 14 Games +152
Kenneth Faried: 12 Games +43
Trey Lyles: 9 Games +14
Darrell Arthur: 2 Games -4
Tyler Lydon: 0 Games +0
Nikola Jokic: 14 Games +209
Mason Plumlee: 14 Games +43
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Avg. TPM™ Per Game
Jamal Murray: +8.93
Emmanuel Mudiay: +13.29
Monte Morris: N/A
Gary Harris: +11.42
Will Barton: +9.71
Malik Beasley: +0.64
Torrey Craig: N/A
Wilson Chandler: +5.93
Juancho Hernangomez: -5.33
Richard Jefferson: -1.75
Paul Millsap: +10.86
Kenneth Faried: +3.07
Trey Lyles: +1.56
Darrell Arthur: -2.00
Tyler Lydon: N/A
Nikola Jokic: +14.93
Mason Plumlee: +3.46
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TPM™ Per-Minute Splits Through Game 13:
*Credit to DomP on the Spreadsheet. It's as if my (very nerdy) baby (TPM™) is learning to speak
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Analysis:
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Qtr1- The Nuggets are still without the services of Harris, so they roll out a starting five of Murray, Barton, Chandler, Millsap & Jokic. PDX counters with Lilard, McCollum, Harkless, Swanigan & Nurkic. Anyone know where I can get that 'murica themed, bi-color, black/grey, Nuggets t-shirt that Barton has on pre-game? I WANT! Both teams open it with three pointers. This game has a very fast tempo (not the same as pace as defined by NBA nerds). Jokic & Murray are causing me to use a lot of space on my pad early. They giveth, they taketh away. Jokic wins his first career argument with a referee, and the Nuggets retain possession on a ball out of bounds. Plumlee & Mudiay are first off the bench at 5:43 for Denver. Sap nabs his 2nd foul at 4:39 and he's replaced by Jokic who got a VERY brief break. I question why not Faried or Lyles? Unbelievable; Jokic just won argument #2 of his career with an official resulting in Swanigan having to exit with 2 fouls. Mudiay is off to an uncharacteristically poor start defensively. Ally is dressed in long-sleeved business casual after the Moda Center deep freeze of earlier today. PDX is on an 18-4 run and leads 23-17 at 2:56. With Nurkic out, Denver's reserves are starting to make hay, but there have been far too many bad post-entry passes. Each team is guilty of 7 turnovers to this point. The Nuggets are paced in TPM by Barton +8, and Chandler +11, but trail the Blazers, 25-21 after one.
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Qtr2- Beasley & Faried are in to start the 2nd, surprisingly along with R.J. I like it! Sap is having a rough outing thus far. Nobody in this current lineup consisting of R.J., Faried, Sap, Beasley & Mudiay can score right now, so I'd say we can chalk this up as one of those "never-use" lineups Malone. Portland is on a 10-2 run and leads by ten at 8:32. Murray checks in for Beasley to hopefully solve this. Denver is suffering at this point for Malone's decision to overplay Jokic in the first, rather than inserting Faried or Lyles, and a likely tired Jokic checks in at 6:25, down 12. Vonleh picks up his 3rd and grabs some pine at 5:54. The Nuggets are settling for jumpers and are shooting 37% as a result. The lone bright spot for Denver tonight has been Chandler. With the starting unit on the floor, they are beginning to cut into the lead which is now down to nine. The PDX P&R is predictably pwning Denver. Chandler's distributing has been excellent this game and indeed all season. If he can keep sinking his open shots, the starting unit will really gel. Denver is down just 5 on the strength of a 13-4 run at 1:45. Murray & Barton are the first two Nuggets in double digits. The Nuggets are paced in TPM by Barton +13 & Chandler +21 and are showing some fight, but the Blazers lead 54-49 at the half.
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Halftime: Smoke break? Don't mind if I do!
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Qtr3- Denver can not buy a bucket to open the 3rd, and PDX stretches the lead to 9 at 10:10. Jokic is complaining far too much, emboldened by his two first half victories with the officials. Swanigan picks up his 4th foul at 9:29 & his 5th at 9:15. The Blazers are blazing from downtown and the lead is now eleven at 8:00. Millsap is 4-5 from distance himself as he drills one in which he was attempting to draw a foul. The Nuggets cut it to 7 after Ill-Will gets a three point play on one that he should have been called for traveling. Barton has forgotten how to D up in this period. Truth be told, I'm surprised Denver is still in this one, down just 9 at 6:42. Sap & Chandler are the 3rd & 4th Nuggets in double figures. I have a feeling this game may come down to which team's bench unit performs best to procure momentum heading into crunch time. The Nuggets are really missing Harris tonight, with no one to replace a struggling Barton with at the moment. Lilard and McCollum have arrived as we knew they would, and Portland leads by 14 at 2:48. Nurkic checks out at 1:50; this may be the last, best chance for Denver. Now if only Lilard would ever grab some pine. He plays the entire 3rd and it showed. Denver is paced in TPM by Millsap +11 & Chandler +22, but no other Nuggets are in double figures as the Blazers are up big, 84-66 after three.
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Qtr4- Lilard finally sits along with McCollum and Juka, but you wouldn't know it by the way Denver is playing at the moment. Jokic might be playing his worst game of the year on the heels of his Western Conference Player of the Week title, but to their credit, Portland is tough down low with three defensive minded players in the front court, fast hands and superior offensive rebounding not to mention Ed Davis spearheading the D for the 2nd unit. The Blazers lead is up to twenty at 9:20. I think Marlowe may have just cracked a Blazers Edge joke. Sap is now 5-8 from deep. Hehe, Marlowe just said Bollocks! Sap is T'd up after he's called for an offensive foul, when Nurkic flops on his three. Adding insult to injury, Sap is erroneously called for a foul on a layup attempt by Nurkic that he swatted, the ref blew his whistle for a presumed goal-tend, then realized it was a good block. Pretty horrible officiating in this half and the game on whole. Meanwhile, PDX is up by 21 with five to play. The Blazers are hacking the bejezus out of the Nuggets as Swanigan fouls out at 4:20. Lyles, who has yet to have a bad showing this season checks in at this point, but it's likely too late to unleash the secret weapon. Murray is 0-7 from distance. Denver is paced in TPM by Chandler's +22, but not a single other player was in double figures, as Portland wins 99-82.
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Final Thoughts-The absence of Harris in this one was obvious. Portland is still good.
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