Year 2

This is part two in a series I’m writing about Tim Connelly’s tenure as the Nuggets GM. If you feel so inclined please seek out part one and give that a read.

Context

The Denver Nuggets were going into the 2014 draft right at the salary cap line which meant that to sign their upcoming draft picks or improve the team in anyway they would likely have to go over it, leaving them very little recourse to make improvements. They were coming off a disappointing year under first year coach Brian Shaw. The prior season had been one wrought with injury and the Nuggets felt that improved health would give them a better chance to see what the talent level of the team really was. The disappointing season also took some of the pressure off to win right away. Ownership now knew that the magic of the 57-win team of 2012-2013 might be gone for good and that they would need to find more talent to truly compete again.

The Draft

While Tim Connelly had been the GM for the previous draft, this is the first draft he truly got to prepare for as the Nuggets GM. The prior year he had gotten less than two weeks to determine what the Nuggets targets should be. With the added time Tim Connelly clearly did his research and made some impressive moves. The draft was highlighted by two draft day trades which we will evaluate first.

1. The Nuggets traded their young SG Evan Fournier and a second round pick (which became Devyn Marble) to the Orlando Magic for the former Nugget, Aaron Afflalo. Afflalo had always been a fan favorite and a quality two way player with the Nuggets. He was traded to the Magic as part of the deal that brought Iguodala to the Nuggets prior to the 2012-2013 season. In his time in Orlando Afflalo blossomed into what appeared to be an outright star averaging 18.2 PPG in the 2013-2014 season. This was seen as an opportunity to add another veteran scorer to the duo of Ty Lawson and a hopefully healthy Danilo Gallinari. His performance didn’t live up to expectation and Evan Fournier continued to improve, so this trade certainly wasn’t what the Nuggets were hoping for. However Afflalo still had a better season than Fournier and was on a solid contract which certainly had value and this trade was salvaged later on in the season. 6/10
2. The second trade was the one that made Nuggets fans realize that we had ourselves a gem of a GM. The Nuggets traded the 11th pick and Anthony Randolph to the Chicago Bulls for the 14th and 19th picks in the draft. Anthony Randolph was essentially dead weight and was a salary dump. Tim Connelly managed to turn the two later picks into two players that they were targeting with the 11th pick. There is nothing bad in this trade as both players the Nuggets took have been better than Doug McDermott who was picked 11th. 10/10

The trades were only part of the draft, he still had to turn the draft picks into quality players. Little did we know at the time, but talent evaluation is Tim Connelly’s bread and butter. He’s got lots of scouting connections all over the world and an eye for finding underrated talent.

1. With the 14th pick in the draft the Nuggets selected the Bosnian Center Jusuf Nurkic, who was widely touted as a great defensive big man was far more agile than he should have been. He was touted as a great back to the basket scorer and was generally just a very large human being. His name had come up a lot for the Nuggets at the 11th pick and it turns out he was still there at 14 after the trade. Since coming into the league Jusuf has proven to be a dominant physical force and an excellent defender. He has struggled with Injuries some and his efficiency around the rim is not where it should be. His jump shot has improved and his defensive skill alone is enough to consider this pick a success. 8/10
2. With the 19th pick in the draft the Nuggets selected Michigan State Sophomore Gary Harris. Harris was not and overly efficient college player, about average in that regard, but was expected to be an excellent defender and had a coachable personality and High Basketball IQ. His defensive potential was clear and having two years under a coach like Tom Izzo never hurt anyone. He struggled to get consistent minutes his rookie year under coach Brian Shaw, but in his second year dramatically improved his game as the Nuggets starting shooting guard. 9/10
3. With the 41st pick in the draft the Nuggets got what might be one of the biggest steals in NBA draft history. They selected Serbian center Nikola Jokic. The scouting reports called him a very skilled high IQ player that could stretch the floor and pass the ball better than most at his position. He had only recently begun a professional strength and conditioning program so his body was still a work in progress and he isn’t a very athletic player. However Connelly saw the talent and jumped at the pick. I remember looking up film of him after the draft and being incredibly impressed, thought he might be our best pick of the night. He remained in Europe for a year where he won the MVP of the Adriatic league as a 20 year old. He was then signed by the Nuggets to learn from the bench and get experience with our coaching and training staff. Nurkic was still recovering from and injury and other injuries required Jokic to get on the floor, eventually earning the starting spot and not giving it up. By advanced stats Jokic was clearly a top two rookie and one of the best centers in the league. His ceiling is incredibly high and he is only getting better. 10/10

Summer Free Agency

The Nuggets were quiet during free agency due to them being over the salary cap. They merely sign their 1st round picks as well as small deals with Erick Green (a 2013 2nd round pick) and Alonzo Gee, a solid veteran. Having made his splash in the draft and having virtually no money to spend, Connelly wisely added talent where he could. 8/10

In addition to the normal free agency the priority for Connelly was signing starting Power Forward Kenneth Faried to a multi-year extension. Faried was fresh off of a great close of the 2014 season and a starring role on Team USA. He was expecting to be a featured part of the Nuggets and wanted to be paid like it. The two parties agreed on a 5 year $60M extension that would pay Faried an average of 12 million a year. Many saw this as an overpay and it probably was however, Faried was a fan favorite and had showed great improvement in the last year. Connelly also knew that a year into the extension the salary cap was expected to balloon making the contract much more reasonable. 7/10

Trades

By January it was becoming clear that the struggles from the year before were not wholly related to injury. Brian Shaw and the Nuggets roster were not a good fit. Shaw became frustrated with the team and it showed causing a lot of tension and unrest in the locker room. Nurkic was one of the few bright spots and was quickly making starting center Timofey Mozgov expendable. The team was not performing well and their cap situation was going to make it very difficult to make improvements in the future.

1. Mozgov was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers for 2 first round picks. The Cavs were in desperate need of big men as they made their push toward the playoffs and eventually the finals and Connelly took advantage of that need. Mozgov was a quality starter but trading him for two firsts was an easy choice when he young replacement was waiting in the wings. 10/10
2. Nate Robinson was traded for Jameer Nelson. Robinson was becoming a negative in the locker room and on the court. Connelly managed to turn him into a great locker room guy who was in fact still a better player than Robinson. The veteran leadership that Jameer provided helped get the team through the following turmoil. 10/10
3. At the trade deadline the Nuggets were very active. They managed to use one of the picks obtained in the Mozgov trade to unload Javale McGee’s monstrous contract onto the Philadelphia 76ers. This was addition by subtraction in that Javale was not all that cooperative in his rehab from an injury that would keep him off the court for a full two season. He was also always a bit of a knucklehead both on and off the court. Due to the Mozgov trade Connelly was able to shed this salary without giving up any picks we had at the start of the year. 10/10
4. Aaron Afflalo and Alonzo Gee were then traded to the Portland Trailblazers for Will Barton and a 1st round pick. This two was a way to save some cap space but also to move on from Afflalo who was not the player we were hoping for when he was brought in for Evan Fournier. Barton came in as younger player with lots of potential that was never shown off in Portland because he was buried on their bench. Barton has been great as a Nugget and Afflalo’s slow decline continued. The first round pick was another prize as it gave us more opportunity to add talent in the future. 10/10

Post deadline signing

Joffrey Lauvergne, our 2013 second round pick was signed out of Europe to come over and add depth to our front court after we traded away Mozgov. He struggled for the remainder of that year as he adjusted, but came back the following year as a solid role player and contributor. He’s not a great talent but when the team needed depth Connelly went to a player already within the organization who could be had for cheap. 10/10

The Coaching Change

Brian Shaw was a poor fit with this team from the get go and his relationship with the locker room was getting worse and worse. While it was wise to give him a chance to improve in his second year, when that improvement didn’t come and the locker room culture deteriorated, it was time to make a change. One of his assistants, Melvin Hunt, took over and managed to win a few games by changing things up a bit and letting the team run. The players were much happier under Hunt, but it was still a failed season. The coaching change had to happen and it did. Then after the season was over Mike Malone was hired as the new head coach. Malone came in with a reputation as a great locker room guy and very much a player’s coach. He immediately reached out to current players and formed strong relationships with many of them. The energy around the team dramatically improved as Malone represented a fresh face and a new direction. The coaching change was meant as a way to improve the culture and right the ship with many of the disgruntled veterans and it largely succeeded.

Talent

By the end of the season the talent not the team looked much different. Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Kenneth Faried were the only players remaining from the 57-win team. Connelly had been able to infuse young talent into the roster through the draft and trade while maintaining a veteran presence to help guide the young players forward. Nurkic looked like he could be a star and both Will Barton and Gary Harris had a lot of untapped potential. Gallinari was finally healthy after his knee injuries and looked like an elite scorer. The talent was certainly there, though it was much younger and not quite ready to succeed on its own.

Financial flexibility

Things were still tight money wise following the season, but by dumping Javale McGee’s contract, Connelly had given himself some breathing room in the future. More changes were still to come to further improve their financial situation, but those were to take place after the draft.

In Tim Connelly’s second year it was clear that the Nuggets had to start thinking toward the future and that’s exactly what they did. It was not a full on rebuild, but Connelly made intelligent moves to improve their future outlook without sacrificing their current talent. Criticisms regarding their unwillingness to commit to a full rebuild had been going on all year, however Connelly managed to add as much young talent in one year without tanking as Philadelphia had added in two years of their process. Selling off existing vets for young players and draft picks in order to lose more games and have a better chance at a top is certainly one way to try and get talent. However Connelly managed to add great young talent and multiple draft picks while maintaining a talented core of veteran players. Its hard to call it a rebuild as there was never really a tear down, it might be more appropriate to call it a remodel. So despite the team having its worse season in more than ten years Connelly gets a positive grade from me because in one year he made dramatic changes to the team that set them up for a lot of future success. A