In the third part of a five part series, I break down where the Nuggets stand after 51 games, or 62% of the way through the season. I focus on various statistics while trying to bring correlations to those numbers. In this specific piece, I will bring the individual numbers like last time, but then I will also focus on the team aspect of the game, specifically on offense, to see what kinds of conclusions can be made.

All statistics are taken from ESPN.com, NBA.com, or Basketball Reference. Enjoy!

***

The Nuggets after 51 games stand at 20-31, which translates to 32-50 in an 82 game season. In other words, the Nuggets still aren't very good yet, but there have been many, many individual performances to get excited about as the season has gone on. The offensive capabilities of Danilo Gallinari, the breakout of Will Barton, and the improvements of Gary Harris have all been wonderful, but none of them come close to the surprise that Nikola Jokic has given Nuggets fans in his first 51 games as a pro. Let's go to the statistics to find out why.

(To review, I use games played, minutes, Win Shares total, RPM, and Net Rating, which is calculated by finding the difference between Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating on Basketball Reference)

Players	Games Played	Minutes Per Game	Win Shares	RPM	Net Rating
Danilo Gallinari	45	34.5	5.8	+2.48	+11
Gary Harris	45	30.6	1.9	-2.01	-3
Emmanuel Mudiay	37	29.9	-2.1	-5.55	-27
Will Barton	51	28.8	3.6	-0.25	+2
Jammer Nelson	38	27.1	0.6	-4.21	-12
Kenneth Faried	44	26.4	3.4	+0.20	+6
Darrell Arthur	46	20.7	1.4	+0.34	-4
Nikola Jokic	49	20.0	4.0	+5.41	+15
Randy Foye	51	19.6	-0.1	-4.76	-18
Joffrey Lauvergne	29	17.5	1.2	-0.42	+2
JJ Hickson	20	15.3	0.5	+0.08	-4
Jusuf Nurkic	14	13.2	-0.1	-1.56	-17
Mike Miller	36	8.3	0.3	-1.36	-8

Lot's of interesting numbers here. Here are five things that stick out to me:

1) Gallo is having his best season as a pro. He's now averaging 19.8 points per game, but he's moved his field goal percentage up to a respectable 41.5%. This is still pretty inefficient, but because he gets to the free throw line as often as he does, the inefficiency means a little less. He's currently 6th in ORPM, and his high net rating shows just how valuable he is to this team.

2) Nikola Jokic is otherworldly. His numbers keep getting better, and now the excuse isn't that he's playing against all bench players. He's taking the opposing team's best Center to town all over the court offensively. From the elbow facilitating the offense, to receiving the ball in the pick and roll and shooting a perfect jumper, to going down into the post, to stepping beyond the arc from 3 point land. Oh, and his DRPM outranks both Karl Anthony-Towns and Kristaps Porzingis...Nikola Jokic is breaking out in a big way. He has 31 more games to prove that he should be the Rookie of the Year over either of those two, and while it's unlikely, Jokic has the Rising Stars game as a platform for National Elevation. If he can wow the crowd and get more people to focus on him after the break, then we may get a closer vote at ROTY than any of us ever dreamed.

3) Many advanced stats don't like Gary Harris. He's a great player who has visibly improved in many categories such as his percentages and his aggressiveness, but for whatever reason, RPM and Net Rating still don't like him very much. Could that be a fluke, and Gary is actually performing well and we will see the advanced stats reflect his growth soon? Or will the advanced stats always hate him, kind of like an Arron Afflalo or a Wilson Chandler, and see them as players that don't rule help the team win? Time will tell, as Harris is only 21 years old, but it's something to not just dismiss. Harris may be the Shooting Guard of the future, but he just as likely may be just as a bench player on a good team who's starting on a bad team.

4) The Point Guard situation is still dire. Mudiay is having an absolutely terrible year statistically, but we have gone into why he receives these kinds of minutes, and as we saw in the Chicago game, he's growing before our very eyes. He's playing about 30 minutes per game, and that's the perfect amount for him. As for the other 18 minutes, they have been shared between Jameer Nelson and Randy Foye. Jameer is currently injured, but the advanced stats say he wasn't exactly a great option. Randy has inexplicably been even worse. All 3 guys have an RPM of -4.00 or worse, in addition to a Net Rating of -12 or worse. It may not happen this year, but the minutes behind Mudiay have to get better if the Nuggets ever want to win games. Foye is expiring, but Nelson has two more years on his contract after this season. Hopefully the answer is to make him the Emergency Point Guard and bring in someone else, because statistically, the Nuggets currently have the worst PG situation in the entire NBA, including Philadelphia...that's bad.

5) Poor Juka and King Joff. They have both had a ton of trouble sticking in the rotation this season. Joffrey started the year as the starting Center, played 3 great games,got hurt, lost his position, and then lost his rotation spot altogether when Nurkic came back. Juka, on the other hand, has struggled to be efficient on the offensive side of the ball and looks slower on the court this year. I know he's still recovering, and I have every bit of confidence that he can come back and be even better than he was before his injury. It just sucks that they have both had such limited time in a developing season for the Nuggets. They will both be just fine, and they miiiiiiiight find some extra room in the rotation after the trade deadline, but it's unlikely.

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Now onto the team as a whole. I want to focus on WHEN and WHERE the offense takes shots during the half court offense. Mike Malone focuses on going hard to the rim, but making sure to take open shots when they come in the flow of the offense. Let's see how the team does:

When the Offense Takes Shots (24-18 seconds was eliminated from the sample as "transition offense")

Time left on shot clock	Field Goal Percentage Rank	Frequency
18-15 Seconds	30th	6th
15-7 Seconds	8th	3rd
7-4 Seconds	25th	6th
4-0 Seconds	21st	7th

One of these things is not like the others. When the Nuggets take their time, but don't dawdle, they are pretty good on offense. This is the good part about what Michael Malone has installed, sets that generate good looks after two to three passes and good ball movement. The problem that this team runs into is when they take jump shots after one screen. Consistently, the de facto ball handlers on the team will come down the court, receive a screen, and take a moving jump shot. This is not good offense. Good offense is also not waiting for the shot clock to wind down, and devolving into a last ditch pick and roll or an isolation. The ball handler in the Pick and Roll for the Nuggets as a whole is 28th in PPP (points per possession). In isolation situations, the Nuggets as a whole are 26th in PPP. Neither of these plays have been great for the Nuggets, but the pick and roll is a staple so they just need to improve there. Isolation sets are NOT necessary though, and for a team that runs isolation sets at the 8th highest frequency, that can certainly change.

WHERE the half court offense takes shots

Location on the Court	Field Goal Percentage Rank	Frequency
Less than 10 feet	25th	4th
Pull-Up Jump Shots	30th	23rd
Catch and Shoot 2's	20th	17th
Catch and Shoot 3's	19th	20th

There are a lot of low percentages there, but what I can say is that the Nuggets don't have very good finishers in the paint, yet they continuously take it in there based on having the 4th highest frequency. Mudiay, Harris, Gallo, and Faried are all at their best when they drive into the paint, and that doesn't account Jokic who's great there too, so this percentage is going to need to rise if we want to become a better offense. This comes with the development of Mudiay and Harris learning how to finish better, as well as some of our bench guys. Gallo and Faried are what they are, so it's on the young guys to figure out how to improve, because the bulk of our offense is going to the rim, and if the current players can never make shots at a high rate, then we need better players.

Mudiay's vintage shot, the pull-up fadeaway in the mid range, is killing the Nuggets. He's obviously not the only one who does it, but they are last in the league in pull-up jump shot percentage. Again, that will probably come with development, but considering that Golden State only shoots 45.7% on these shots, and they are leading the league, then it's safe to say that it's not the best way to generate points. Denver (and specifically Mudiay) needs to stay away from this shot for awhile.

Lastly, they are below average in the ability to catch the ball and shoot, but they aren't terrible, so the focus of the offense could do worse than attempting hit spot-up shooters in their spots on the floor. Guys like Gallo, Jokic, Barton, Arthur, and Randy Foye are our best spot-up shooters, which is really sad, because Randy Foye is currently shooting 31% on his spot up attempts. The best thing the Nuggets could do is look to sign a better spot up shooter in Free Agency next year, because Gallo has too much focus on him, Jokic needs to also be in the paint, Barton creates offense, and Arthur is a role player who will never average more than 22 minutes per game or so. Also, Randy Foye needs to be let go...yesterday.

A couple of other tidbits:

1) The team is 11th in FG% when not taking any dribbles in the offense before shooting. That number goes down to 21st after 1 dribble, up to 18th at 2 dribbles, and drops all the way to last in the league when there are 3-6 dribbles before the shot. The Nuggets are a catch and shoot, or 1-2 dribbles in to the lane offense before making a decision. Our best moments as a team have come when the ball is flying around and guys make quick, sound decisions. Let’s cut out the excess dribbling for everyone except possibly Mudiay and Gallo. Mudiay because he needs to learn, Gallo because I trust him. Everyone else needs to stick to 1-2 dribbles then make a decision.

2) The lineup of Mudiay/Harris/Gallo/Arthur/Jokic is the best lineup currently on the team statistically. It ranks 15th in the NBA in Plus-Minus at +3.0. OKC’s starting lineup is 1st at +5.4 followed by GSW’s famous small ball lineup with Iggy at +5.3. That Nuggets lineup is probably the best combination of offense and defense at most of the positions. They only play together about 10 minutes per game though. The same lineup with Kenneth Faried instead of Darrell Arthur is also very strong at a +1.1. Malone is slowly figuring out that the quartet of Mudiay, Harris, Gallo, and Jokic needs to be on the court for the majority of the time together. Whoever the 5th player should be is up for debate. It could be Faried, or Arthur, or Will Barton, or maybe Jusuf Nurkic when he’s healthier, or someone who’s not on the roster yet. Time will tell, but as has been stated in the past, the quartet we have assembled so far has been pretty good together.

***

Denver has not had a good year winning wise, but they have found a new Alpha Dog in Gallinari, and they have found a blossoming star in Nikola Jokic. That means that this season has not been wasted. Here are a few goals the team should have in mind for the next 31 games:

1) Find more time for Jusuf Nurkic and Joffrey Lauvergne. These two showed great potential to be key contributors over the past two years, but with Jokic's emergence and Malone's reliance of Darrell Arthur, the two young guys have been "left by the wayside" so to speak. In a developing season, we should attempt to be developing those guys heavily, regardless of the results. They treat Mudiay differently, but it really should be the same way. Giving Mudiay a pass and letting him play 30 minutes to iron out the kinks but then pulling Nurkic or Joffrey after 3 minutes of bad play is very lopsided to me...play the young guys.

2) Get Gary Harris more shots. In order to see whether he's the SG of the future, the Nuggets need to know if he can handle a higher volume of shots. Currently, Harris shoots the 69th most Field Goal Attempts amongst guards in the NBA, and that production just won't prove whether he can handle the starting role or not.

3) Get Nikola Jokic the Rookie of the Year. He has the numbers and the percentages. He just needs more volume. This is more of a personal goal than anything, but Towns and Porzingis are considered 1 and 2 by national media, then it's everyone else waaaay below them That's just not true. Let Jokic work for that Rookie of the Year. He just had a "bad game" by his standards and went 16 and 12 while leading Denver to a victory. Ride the man to more wins and a trophy for him Malone. THAT would be awesome.

To cap it off, here are some highlights from our Golden State win. Gets me every time.