It helps to have this guy right?

For the 29 other teams that don't have Stephen Curry, valuation of certain shots must take place so that decisions can be made on where teams prioritize taking their field goal attempts. Most like to emphasize getting the ball into the lane for closer shots. Some take the extreme analytical model (Houston Rockets) and attempt to only shoot layups and three pointers. Is there a right way to do it?

Golden State seems to have found a way to make offense flow, and the next four offenses in overall efficiency are Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Cleveland, and Toronto. So all in all, the #1, #2, and #3 seed in the West as well as the #1 and #2 seed in the East. No big deal.

How do these guys do it? Well let's start with the individual players on said teams:

Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green help GSW.

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka help OKC.

Kawhi Leonard, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Tony Parker help SAS.

Lebron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love help CLE.

Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan help TOR. Yes it's just the two of them.

All-stars help people. 10 all-stars out of the above group from This Season. The Nuggets are tied with Indiana for 22nd in Offensive Efficiency, but Indiana is in the playoff picture. That's because they are 2nd in defensive efficiency, something the Nuggets rank 20th in, but that's a story for another time.

Offenses become more efficient by taking and making good shots. A lot of people debate on the metrics and benefits of different shot attempts in basketball. Is a contested shot at the rim better than an open mid range jumper? Is a shot from behind the arc better than both of them? How do free throws play into everything?

Obviously, an uncontested shot at the rim is what the ideal possession for an offense would generate. The success rate is so incredibly high that everything else becomes moot. What if the other team contests that shot? Does it matter who contests that shot? If James Harden and Carmelo Anthony are contesting, whoever is shooting probably isn't as worried as if Anthony Davis or Rudy Gobert are going up to protect the rim.

How does this all affect the Denver Nuggets? Well, as a team that has the 2nd lowest FG% within 5 feet of the hoop, per NBA.com, it affects us a lot. Obviously, the Nuggets can't just shoot from outside of 5 feet all of the time, but it's worth noting these percentages to see where the Nuggets are exceeding or struggling, compared to where the most value occurs.

Layups:

The easiest shot in the NBA to make for the majority of players is an uncontested layup. Everyone should have a 95+ FG% when they attack the lane and there's no one there to prevent the easy shot. The concept of attacking the paint becomes far more difficult when someone is guarding it though, and the Nuggets, as illustrated in the statistic above (2nd to last in FG% within 5 feet), seem to have an issue when someone is contesting shots.

It stands to reason that there are certain times to attack the paint, and certain players to attack, rather than simply barreling into Anthony Davis and Hassan Whiteside hoping for the best possible outcome. Below are the 10 players with the highest block percentages in league, along with the difference between the defended field goal percentage and the normal percentage of whoever that player is defending.

How the Best Shot Blockers Change an Offense

It stands to reason that this group of rim protectors shouldn't be challenged at the rim too often. All of them are tall, most of them athletic, and all of them (except unathletic Roy Hibbert) not only block shots, but they create a lower field goal percentage when they defend whoever is shooting the ball.

On an aside, Kenneth Faried is statically the worst player in the league at the DFG%-NFG% metric, and Gary Harris is the 5th worst, but that's a topic for another time.

Each of the ten above players patrol the paint, and each of them create havoc for the opposing team. For a team like the Nuggets that already struggles attacking the rim, finding other ways to score, more efficient ways to score, would be very helpful.

Free Throws:

This article ffrom Andrew Johnson at Nylon Calculus about the importance of the free throw in 2014 says a lot about the NBA today and the maximization of every possession. A quick blurb:

In analytics the three-pointer gets all the glory, especially those sexy corner threes, and there are very good reasons for this. Three-pointers are undeniably more efficient than long two-pointers. There is evidence that the extra spacing of having three point shooters on the court opens space and helps get shots at the rim. Three-point shots may also lead to more offensive rebounds, at least than long and mid-range twos. But the simple math is that the average possession at the charity stripe is more efficient than the average three-point attempt. Given that most shooting fouls result in two shots at the free throw line, I am using the two-shot foul as the base of my comparison, arguably that is the least beneficial free throw play as And-1 attempts only come on top of made baskets, while technicals do not even consume a possession.

In the NBA last year, players made just under 36% of the 1766 three pointers taken, for an average of 1.078 points per three point attempt. Players made 75.6% of their free throw attempts for 1.51 points per shooting foul drawn on a two shot1. And for those doing the math at home, yes 1.51 is greater than 1.078.

So to recap, the average possession ending in a free throw accumulated 1.51 points, compared to the average three pointer which accumulated 1.078 points. Free throws aren't sexy. Dunks and three pointers are sexy. That's what the average NBA fan is coming to see. They aren't coming to Pepsi Center to see Danilo Gallinari's brilliance at drawing fouls, but to come see him shoot a three in someone's face or dunk on someone else.

Now, the interesting dilemma is that in order to get free throws, one must be fouled first, and most shooting fouls happen inside the lane where these shot blockers patrol the paint. Gallinari average's a .620 Free Throw Rate, 6th in NBA (min. 40 games) which is the single biggest reason as to why he's so good offensively. He forces the defense to foul him and give him an opportunity to convert free throws, something he does at an 87.1% clip.

The free throw is a weapon that teams use when they can't get shots to fall, and the Nuggets need to continue to get to the FT line, because even if they go 60% from the line as a team in a game, if they have 80 possessions and earn two free throws every single time, they would still score 96 points.

Two-Point Jumpers:

A lot has been made about the mid range jumper and how it is a very inefficient shot, something the Nuggets should try to avoid at all costs. It is true that the Nuggets should avoid it at all costs, but not because the shot itself is inefficient, but the Nuggets are just poor shooting it. The Nuggets rank 28th in FGAs from 10-14 ft and are last in FG% at that distance. From 15-19 ft, they rank 27th in FGAs and 28th in FG%. The Nuggets just don't use the mid range area enough, and while that's not necessarily a bad thing for them, it doesn't make it useless to everyone. The Thunder lead the league in converting at 10-14 feet at 46.5%, while the Nuggets shoot 36.6%, while the Thunder are also 2nd in FGAs. Having Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka helps, but the premise remains the same that the value of a contested layup versus an open 12 foot jumper. Not only does the lane open up for whoever is driving into the paint, but the percentage of success for an uncontested mid range jumper is about the same as a contested layup, especially when whoever is contesting is one of the above rejection specialists.

There are players on each of these top teams that shoot a high percentage in general, but also focus on the mid range game:

As can be seen here, each of the above players take a fair amount of shots from the mid range, but they don't take ALL of them there. They are versatile players and can score from all over the court, opening up the floor for others to operate both inside and outside. Shaun Livingston isn't the most high profile player on the Warriors, but Klay Thompson also takes .137 of his attempts from that zone and makes .452 of them. Steph makes .491.

At this point, Nikola Jokic seems like the most likely candidate to expand his mid range attempts and make it a part of his overall game. He makes 50% of his attempts from that zone, but at only 16/32, his sample isn't large enough to prove he can do it consistently. Emmanuel Mudiay's is, and he's taken 80 shots from there and made 24/80. If the Nuggets want to run a solid offense, then they need players that can operate from all three areas: the paint, the midrange, and beyond the arc.

Three Pointers:

No matter how much I say that two point jumpers can open up the offense, nothing changes the fact that the five most efficient offenses shoot the 3-pointer efficiently, even if they don't shoot it all the time:

I threw in Denver's 3 point percentage to show the true contrast of good offense versus bad offense. Denver has devoted 441 3 point attempts to the combination of Randy Foye, Jameer Nelson, and Emmanuel Mudiay, all of which are shooting under 30%. For comparison, all six of the Golden State Warriors players that have shot 100 threes have made at least 35% of them, even Andre Iguodala.

Now, no one will confuse the Warriors' offense with that of the Nuggets. The Warriors find new and innovative ways to free up their best players night in and night out. That being said, one can take solace in the fact that the Nuggets shoot the 9th best percentage from 3 point range in the entire NBA when there's 4-6 feet of space between them and the closest defender. All of the teams above them are likely playoff teams except the Milwaukee Bucks.

The weird thing is that when a Nugget is left WIDE open (6+ feet of distance) the percentage drops to 26th in the NBA. This is also where the Warriors truly excel, as they rank 1st and shoot 10% better than the Nuggets at this distance.

Why This All Matters:

There may never be another team in the NBA that shoots as well as the Golden State Warriors have this season (except Golden State next season), so they may not be the best comparison. The five best offenses in the league all have certain trends, and they focus on maximizing the skills of their star players, while also putting their role players in the best position to get easy shots.

Here are the keys to a good shot as I see them:

1. Shoot a high percentage in the paint, but don't abuse the privilege.
2. Have a good effective field goal percentage.
3. Get to the Free Throw line early and often if they offense isn't working.
4. Don't abuse any area of the court unless you are damn good at it.
5. Hit your wide open shots.

Going through each of these one by one, I will start with one that Nuggets fans need to hear. The paint is both the bread of life and the downfall of our team. The Nuggets shoot the 2nd most shots within 5 feet of the hoop in the entire NBA, and they make the 29th most. It's good to see that this team continues to go inside and attempt to attack the rim forcefully and repeatedly, but at some point, the square peg doesn't need to fit the round hole anymore.

The best offenses in the league shoot well from everywhere, but that doesn't mean they always shoot from the easiest place on the floor all the time. They average the 7th, 13th, 16th, 20th, and 23rd highest percentage of points in the paint respectively. Nothing crazy about those numbers, but they tailor to the skill sets of the star players.

What they do well is have a high effective field goal percentage. They rank 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 11th, which means that no matter where they find their shots on the floor, they make them. Also, all of the teams in the top 12 for Effective Field Goal Percentage are in the playoff picture unless they are in the bottom 10 in Opponent EFG%. It's definitely a good indicator for how a team maximizes the floor. By comparison, the Nuggets are 28th.

Because free throws are so easy in a points per possession format, they must be taken into account. Always. Free throws can change a game, and they are the sole reason that a team can get back into a game when down, but also a downfall if the wrong players take them. Filling the team with solid free throw shooters helps, because it usually translates to shooting in other areas as well.

The Houston Rockets are the league leaders in 3 pointers attempted and free throws attempted per game. Normally, that would be a good sign of efficiency and knowledge of where to take shots. Unfortunately, they rank 16th in 3PT% and 27th in FT%, making their disgustingly high number of attempts in each area moot. The Nuggets are another good example of this because how much they abuse the paint. The team with the most blocks against by a wide margin? The Nuggets. That comes from teams knowing what's coming before the Nuggets do, and that's ONLY attack the lane. If the Nuggets want to become more efficient, they will find players who will hit from all ranges.

The last key is probably the most important. In a make or miss league, hitting open and easy shots is the most important thing a team could do. The Warriors don't break an opponent's back when Steph Curry dances oh a defender and chucks a 30 footer that happens to go in. The back breaks when the defense gives up a wide open shot to Harrison Barnes or Brandon Rush or Ian Clark 10 times a game, and they hit 6 of the shots. What gives those players that confidence is they know they are going to be open. Then, it becomes practice. Each of those Warriors shoot over 41% from beyond the arc. That doesn't mean they are incredibly talented, but it does show what a player can do when given confidence and repeated open looks.

***

I've attempted to create a metric that values each of these shots in a way they should be valued. They take into account the volume, efficiency, and distance of the shot, while individualizing each distance based on the likelihood of its success and potential point outcome based on the median number of attempts for that distance. Here's the formula I generated:

Weighted Shooting % = (FG% 0-10 feet*.419*1.25)+(2FG% 10-23 feet*.167*1.00)+(3PT%*.248*1.50)+(FT%*.166*1.20)

Disclaimer: This number won't be perfect, but it gives an idea of how I value each individual shot based off of where it is taken. The number on the end of each grouping is a multiplier that I picked based off of the point value and likelihood of success for each shot. The numbers for 0-10 feet and free throws are completely subjective. I value them more than a mid range jumper, but less than a 3 point attempt, so I picked a couple of round numbers that made sense.

The logic behind this number is to attempt to quantify a player like Andre Drummond or Deandre Jordan next to a player like Steph Curry or Kyle Korver. Completely different styles of course. Steph Curry should win out here based off of his shooting percentages from everywhere on the court, but it might not do him justice because he takes and makes so many 3 pointers. Let's find out:

As can be seen, the weighted shooting metric shows the true value of not only threes, but free throws as well. Each of three big men above have a penchant for missing free throws. I will also say that there is a sample size issue, but the metric (IMO) shows the order in which these players affect the defense they are trying to score against. Curry and Korver force the defense to stretch, opening up the lane for teammates inside the arc. Gallinari also has a major effect because he scores from all three levels relatively well and he makes his attempts count at the FT line.

If I could change the metric, I would attempt to weight what the big men do a little big more, because the discrepancy between shooters and inside guys is a little too high for me, but they do need to be penalized for packing the paint a bit, and the free throw percentages obviously hurt.

***

I hope this helps everyone. It's just an idea. I like seeing it this way and it's pretty accurate in showing how much a player's shooting affects the offense. It's not perfect, but the Nuggets need to focus on acquiring players that go above the .5000 mark. The Nuggets rank near the bottom of every category shooting, so finding ways to get above that .5000 line consistently should be a goal. They also need to know how to utilize the entire floor. Shot blockers are becoming even better, and they affect offenses that focus on getting into the lane, AKA the Nuggets. Denver needs to expand it's repertoire and not play into the claws of the opposing defense.

True Shooting Percentage, Effective Field Goal Percentage, Regular Field Goal Percentage. None of them truly quantify the value of a shot, hopefully this helps explain my perspective.