While the Denver Stiffs board talks about the Nuggets a lot, it's important to take into account other factors around the league to see what other teams are doing. The landscape of the NBA is always changing, and the Nuggets (and their fans) need to genuinely appreciate the rumors and ramifications of certain deals.
For example, the rumor in 2012 about Chris Paul going to the Los Angeles Lakers had major ramifications for Denver. Chris Paul would have created another superteam with Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard. Steve Nash was good, but he just didn't have to overall impact of Chris Paul at the time. The Nuggets need to be mindful of certain transactions so as to gauge value AND to see if they can swoop in and steal some value on a deal.
Brooklyn, Charlotte, Indiana, Philadelphia, and Washington are teams I don't expect to be very active other than maybe making a small move here or there, but here are some of the teams with major trade waves about 72 hours away from the deadline:
Atlanta Hawks - Could they blow it up?
Atlanta fans have to be struggling right now. Less than a year after capturing the #1 seed in the East, the Hawks are struggling to make the playoffs due to a combination of factors; the loss of Demarre Carroll has hurt their efficiency even though Kent Bazemore has been great, but the real reasons are the regression of the starting backcourt, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver.
Teague has always flirted with top ten PG status, but unfortunately, he has fallen off a bit and his FG% has dropped since the year before. Advanced stats have never really loved Teague either. He's 34th among PGs in RPM, and his WS/48 number is at a very average .106, down from .166 last year. He's just not having the same impact as before, but he's still an impact player and could be the starting PG on a championship team that has two other top 20 players (Millsap and Horford are close, but don't quite cut it).
Korver has fallen off entirely. His FG% is the lowest it's been since he played in Philadelphia (Korver played where?!), but even that's not the issue. Korver is showing major signs of slowing down, and for a guy who does most of his off-ball work running around screens to get open, that's a huge factor to consider. He's now shooting 38% from 3 (sure set the bar high eh??) and he's at 23rd in RPM among SGs.
The turmoil of the team has caused them to search for rebuilding answers, and Al Horford's name has floated around trade rumors for awhile now, which should tell everyone that it's a legitimate rumor and not just fodder. Everyone and their mother should want Al Horford, but his price tag will be very high, and his contract is expiring at the end of the year, virtually guaranteeing him a max contract with the cap increase for whichever team signs him. That's likely to be 5 years and 130+ million folks.
Could it affect the Nuggets: It certainly does. Teams will likely balk at the price of Horford, meaning that they will come to Denver and balk at the fact that Denver is asking the same price for Danilo Gallinari. The reason is because Gallo is under contract for an extra year + a player option + he's two years younger. If a team doesn't just want a rental, they may be willing to pay the high asking price for Gallinari that we are asking for.
Boston Celtics - Could they make a championship push and sacrifice future assets?
The most interesting team at the deadline, the Boston Celtics are a top 3 team in the East and have the assets necessary to push them over Cleveland in the short term. Isaiah Thomas is great, as are Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, but the Celtics need a star big man in order to make the leap, and the combination of Sullinger, Amir Johnson, and Kelly Olynyk will not get that done.
The question for Boston is where they can get the best deal. They have been linked to every high profile player 6'10 or taller, from the near untouchable Blake Griffin, to Gallo, to Kevin Love, and lastly, to Horford. Those are the order from least likely to most likely to land in a Celtics uniform. Boston can pay whatever they need to, but their fans overvalue the Brooklyn draft picks way to highly, which means the Boston FO probably does the same thing.
It might not take a Brooklyn pick for Atlanta to part with Horford, but they should certainly hold out for one. The same goes for Cleveland, unless of course want to make the rumored Supermegaultradeal involving Carmelo Anthony which I would stay away from...but it's LeBron. But back to Boston. Their championship window has the potential to start now but stretch on for a long time if they manage their picks right and draft well, or just used them as trade chips for various players.
Could it affect the Nuggets: 110% yes. Boston is one of the only places I can see Gallo going to because of their sheer number of assets and championship aspirations. We love Gallo, and he loves the city of Denver, but of the places that are best for Gallo, this may be number 2 or 3 on the list behind Denver. If Boston makes us a crazy value offer (like offering 6 picks, which is something Danny Ainge has done before), then we need to consider it for the good of the franchise. Picks aren't everything of course, but given the youth of Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic, and Jusuf Nurkic, the Nuggets have a lot of time to potentially hit on a star player in the draft, and with the amount of chances we are getting over the next few years, it's an interesting prospect.
I love Gallinari, and that's why my price tag is still very high on him, but we would be doing a disservice if we just hung up the phone on crazy offers. Let's just play this one by ear.
Chicago Bulls - Is it time to blow it up?
How the mighty have fallen...Chicago used to be a perennial contender, but they have won 3 of their last 10 games, and most of their core is injured or has been injured for awhile. I feel no pity for the Bulls though. They repeatedly rely for high impact minutes from injury prone players like Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic, Taj Gibson, and (especially) Joakim Noah.
The idea of Chicago blowing it up is surprisingly easy to entertain. Keep Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic, Doug McDermott, and Bobby Portis, while getting value for Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson on trades and offloading the contract of Derrick Rose in some deal. Maybe they send him to a third team and take back the non-guaranteed salary of Ty Lawson? Maybe they send Pau to Miami for Hassan Whiteside and others?
Could this affect the Nuggets: Possible, but not likely. The Bulls would be selling vets and desiring young talent and picks. Maybe we could grab a wing like Tony Snell or E'Twaun Moore for Joffrey Lauvergne for a pick of some sort. Other than that, I doubt it. Maybe they want Randy Foye, Jameer Nelson or JJ Hickson as a veteran involved with a playoff run? Obviously doubtful, but not completely inconceivable.
Cleveland Cavaliers - Are major changes necessary to compete with GSW or SAS? (yes)
Kevin Love and Timofey Mozgov are the only major pieces being explored. Other minor pieces will likely be shopped to make that "shore up the end of the bench" move, but the main talk will surround Love and Mozgov. The Cavs screwed up the Tristan Thompson situation and are now officially in cap hell, but he is a necessary part of the rotation at this point, and the Cavs can win a championship with him at Center if they have an elite 1, 2, 3, and 4. That's what it's going to take in order to get past the Warriors or Spurs.
Now how do the Cavs figure this out? One rumor involved Carmelo Anthony to the Cavs, which would be very interesting but would be a sideways move in all honesty. I don't see a move that gets the Cavs to be even better unless they trade Kyrie for Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul. Short of the impossible deals, Cleveland doesn't have anything they can do in the short term.
Could this affect the Nuggets: Likely not, but if they want to trade Kevin Love for more role players, then we might be a team they contact. I would want to pair Gallinari and Love though, so the only other way they get fair compensation is Faried, Barton, and maybe Darrell Arthur. Love is a player who the Nuggets could run the offense through for many many years, and putting him in between Gallo and Nurkic/Jokic would make life very easy for him, while throwing him in a pick and roll with Emmanuel Mudiay would also be beneficial. Defense would suffer, but with that front court pairing, the offense would have incredible potential.
Detroit Pistons - Could they buy a stretch 4 not named Anthony Tolliver or Ersan Illyasova?
The Pistons don't have that many extra trade chips to acquire the pieces they need, but the image of the Morris twins reuniting and providing space for Jackson and Drummond to run a pick and roll is a pretty nice one. Toss in Stanley Johnson, and the Pistons would have a solid starting 5 with cap space next season. The problem is the trade itself. A trade of Morris for Illyasova sounds good for both teams in theory, but Phoenix would ask for more value. Detroit doesn't have anything else to offer (that's on the table) except for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. KCP is a valuable player who grades out 15th in RPM, and he's also 22, so that would definitely earn them some brownie points with other teams if they think Stanley Johnson profiles more as a 2 than a 3.
Could this affect the Nuggets: Not in the slightest. I've been on Detroit sites, and the only player they really identify on the Nuggets that they want is Gallo. He would be a great stretch 4 under Stan Van Gundy, but they are trying to trade Jennings, Illyasova, and a 1st. That's just not going to get it done.
Miami Heat - Will they sacrifice Justice Winslow or Hassan Whiteside for championship aspirations?
It would be INCREDIBLY stupid to do so, but Pat Riley has never been a patient man, so it wouldn't surprise me if they hinted at a Winslow deal. If so, EVERY team should call them. Winslow was always going to start out raw on the offensive end, but his defensive capabilities are completely visible. 12th in DRPM as a rookie is nothing to sneeze at, and his offense will come. Pau Gasol has been a rumored target, so it sounds to me like Hassan Whiteside is very much tradable. Chris Bosh is better as a 5, but Whiteside is still a great player, and while he doesn't fit Denver, he may fit another team where we facilitate the move.
Could this affect the Nuggets: Less than likely, but still an interesting topic. I would move Kenneth Faried straight up for Justice Winslow. I probably wouldn't move Barton straight up, but honestly, I could definitely be persuaded. Winslow's a stud, and he fits with the age group of the core.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=hngkves
This might be the basic framework of a deal. The Nuggets would likely sacrifice this year, but they would gain a ton of financial flexibility to sign a major piece in the offseason, and they might get a two way stud in the mold of a Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler. He may also turn into a Wilson Chandler type, A.K.A. a guy with a ton of physical potential but just isn't a major positive in any one area offensively. Definitely a guy Tim Connelly should consider, but not one to throw out gobs of assets for.
Milwaukee Bucks - Could they break up the team that's obviously not working?
Greg Monroe was a big win for mid-market teams in general. He could have signed with New York (imagine him next to Kristaps and Melo on offense?) but instead chose to go to a place where he thought he could win. That quickly went to the shitter. The Bucks are broken, but individually they have some great looking pieces (like last year's Nuggets).
Could they make smaller moves and trade guys like OJ Mayo or Grevis Vasquez? Could they make a bigger move and trade John Henson, Michael Carter-Williams, or even Greg Monroe? Could they even pursue a trade of Khris Middleton? I love me some Khris Middleton. Giannis Antelongarmso and Jabari Parker look to be untouchable, but Middleton might be manageable if they wanted a package centered around Gary Harris and Kenneth Faried.
Could this affect the Nuggets: Probably not. Chris Middleton is the type of veteran acquisition the Nuggets should be looking for though. He would certainly cost a lot, but he's still young at 24 years old, and of the players that average his numbers or better, he has the 2nd highest 3 point percentage to some guy named Curry. I would go HARD after him because of that, and because he can play and guard the 2, 3, and 4 positions relatively well.
New York Knicks - Could they decide to sell high on Anthony and go full rebuild?
The reason the Nuggets should be interested in the Knicks is if they give up Carmelo Anthony, then the return that they get will likely be rebuilding around Kristaps Porzingis for the future. If that's the case, the pick swap we have with them gets even better. They have currently lost 6 in a row, 9 of their last 10, and are 2 games away from the 6th slot in the draft lottery. If they decide to trade Anthony, as unlikely as it is, Nuggets fans should be rejoicing from the rooftops. It will not only mean better draft position in all likelihood, but sweet satisfaction after Melo forced his way off the Nuggets. The irony of him being traded before the deal is even complete is priceless to me.
Could this affect the Nuggets: Not directly, but only by extension if New York makes moves will it affect the lottery odds for Denver. It would give me a small but good feeling in my stomach if Melo was traded to a team with James and Irving and STILL couldn't win a ring. You never want to root against a guy, and Melo has really turned into a professional who says he wants to win, but the irony was that he may have had an opportunity in Denver, and he jumped the gun and left. Water under the bridge I suppose because the Nuggets now have a great #15 of their own.
Orlando Magic - Should they consolidate for a star level player?
The Magic are very reflective of where the Nuggets are at. They are young, they are building, the individual pieces are great, but they should be starting to see a product on the court like the Nuggets have, and that just hasn't materialized. Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier, Mario Hezonja, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic are all great pieces in their own right, but some are completely offensive (Fournier, Hezonja, Vucevic) and some are supposedly defensive (Payton, Oladipo, Gordon), but neither side is working right now.
The Magic were rumored to inquire about Blake Griffin earlier, but I don't think they will get anywhere near him unless they offer a ludicrous amount of talent. They need to be smart about where they go and who is targeted because at this point, they are in purgatory. If I were them, I would explore what I could get for Fournier on the big man front, as well as draft pick wise. Trade Fournier, give all of those minutes to Mario Hezonja, and see what he can do. Hezonja has star potential, but he needs minutes in order to get there.
Could this affect the Nuggets: Orlando may not consolidate with a star, but Gallinari and Faried could be seen as veteran difference makes that could make a culture change. They are currently overload at the 2, 3, and 4, but I would absolutely listen to them if the name Hezonja is thrown around. I still have confidence in his abilities, and like Mudiay, he's really starting to show the world why he could be one of the best in the game in a few years. Again, not wanting to outright trade either of our two veterans, but if Orlando cam calling and said: "Tobias Harris, Mario Hezonja, and Jason Smith plus a pick or two for Gallo and Faried?" That's a tough call. They get a better floor spacer and alpha dog plus a hard nosed veteran who can run the floor with their young guys.
Again, it's likely that Orlando doesn't call us, but we have heard rumors before about Oladipo and Faried.
Toronto Raptors - Can they get past Cleveland without a quality Power Forward?
Toronto went down this path before when people questioned whether Amir Johnson was enough at PF to get the Raptors out of the 1st round. They were immediately bounced and have since picked up Luis Scola to pair with Patrick Patterson, but it's the same old song and dance. Teams are going to go small on Toronto and expose the 4 man (and Jonas Valenciunas) in the playoffs unless they make an upgrade. Markieff Morris, Kenneth Faried, and others have been rumored to be targets of the Northern team, and for good reason.
The question is whether Toronto wants to pull the trigger. They have the assets any team could want (solid 1st round pick, expiring contracts, minutes filler at the same position, and some nice young guys) but they may not want to mess with their product.
Could this affect the Nuggets: 99.8% yes. They are actively searching for a Power Forward and Faried has ties to Ujiri as the man who drafted him. They may be willing to pay higher than market value. Faried has played very well in Denver this year, but to not be proactive with his trade value would be a disservice to the future of the team. I deal involving Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, Delon Wright, and the 1st from NYK would be more than satisfactory to me.
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Again, I don't necessarily expect anything happening on the Nuggets end, but the news around the league is very interesting to follow and should inform us as fans that Denver is in a very good place. Right now, we don't HAVE to move anyone. We had to move Carmelo, Ty, Javale, and others in years past, but with more financial flexibility, a young squad, and no major pressure for the playoffs this year, we can just sit back, relax, and listen to offers until Tim Connelly suddenly sits forward in his chair and says, "Wait...I only have to give you WHAT for *insert star's name here*?"
