The following chart shows the SportVu tracking data for the Nuggets listing the frequency with which we use each kind of play and the points per possession for each. (PPP, includes free throws and turnovers). It also has the rankings for usage (lower rank means more frequent) and PPP (lower rank means more efficient). Scan over the table. Some things should jump out.
| Play type | Transition | Isolation | Ball Handler | Roll Man | Post-up | Spot-up | Hand-off | Cut | Off Screen | Putbacks | Misc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Usage | 12.4 | 5.7 | 18.9 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 16.9 | 6 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 7.2 |
| PPP | 0.99 | .92 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.08 | 0.45 |
| % Usage Rank | 22 | 28 | 11 | 20 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 21 | 27 | 1 | 5 |
| PPP Rank | 24 | 9 | 22 | 14 | 16 | 24 | 21 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 24 |
1. The Nuggets aren't efficient on offense
League average PPP is typically around 1.04, and there is very little that we are currently doing that beats that. Our overall PPP is 0.997, which is 23rd in the NBA. This has been pretty consistent through the entire season. It was less problematic when our PPP allowed was right around that same number, but it has since ballooned to 1.056, which is good for 21st in the NBA. Getting back to .500 is going to be a difficult task unless one of those numbers goes in the other direction. Yes, this isn't something the Nuggets can do, but accepting you have a problem is the first step.
note: I know we are in the Mile High City, and we want to run, but we are relatively bad in transition and aren't using it much. This is probably the right move for now. Same goes for spot up shots (more on that below).
2. We set the pick but forget to roll
Ball handler and roll man are the two halves of the pick and roll. Ball handler plays are ones in which the player uses the screen and keeps the ball to attempt a shot. Roll man plays are ones in which the player setting the pick gets the ball rolling to the basket. We are 11th in ball handler plays yet 22nd in efficiency. We are 20th in roll man plays but 14th in efficiency. Our usage is reversed. Only Harris and Gallo have shown any promise in keeping the ball off screens. Nelson and Mudiay have been abysmal here, yet these plays account for 51% and 36% of their offense. If we want to make immediate improvements to our offense, this is where it needs to happen. We need to start running these plays looking for the roll man and not for shots.
3. Hand the ball to Gallo and Nelson
We are 3rd in the NBA in shots off handoffs, yet 21st in efficiency. Anyone who has been watching has probably seen that this play type is a staple of the offense. One might think we should reduce this action, but we shouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water. Gallo and Nelson have been efficient at this so far, even though the rest of the roster has struggled.
4. Golden State of mind
The Warriors are last in the NBA in ball handler and spot up frequency. They are 1st in the NBA in shots off screens and cuts. Their use of cutters should not be surprising. Shots off of cuts are the most efficient shots in basketball. Every team in the NBA is currently at or above league average on their cutting plays. Milwaukee is 2nd in the NBA at 8.2%. Golden State is well in front of that getting 11.1% of their offense off cuts. That may not seem like a lot, but that 3% is the same as the difference between Milwaukee and Toronto at 27th. We have a lot of great passers and cutters, and we should be doing more to generate these shots.
Being last in spot up shots might seem strange for Golden State. Spot up opportunities are well regarded, but shots off of screens are better. Golden State is generating 13.9% of their looks off screens. That's nearly double Dallas in 2nd at 7.9%. Golden State is accomplishing this by using many of their screens to get shooters open rather than using them in the pick and roll, resulting in their league low ball handler usage. Plays by the ball handler in the pick and roll are tied with isolation for the least efficient plays in basketball. They are converting bad plays into better ones.
We should be copying this strategy. Despite our shooting woes, we are 7th in efficiency in shots off screens, and nearly everyone on the team is shooting 50% or better. These are also plays that have a very low turnover frequency. Running Nelson and Mudiay in the pick and roll magnifies how poor they are at making those shots and exposes Mudiay's ball handling. Screening for shooters keeps our ball handlers on the perimeter out of the teeth of the defense and creates clear passes and floor spacing. The good news is we are up from 2.9% last year, but we can do a lot more in this area.
5. Not every Kobe assist is a good assist
We are #1 in second chance points largely because we are 4th in offensive rebounding percentage, and we are led by none other than Kenneth Faried. However, only Jokic has gotten any significant number and managed to turn those opportunities into points. Both Faried and Nurk have struggled to score. The focus needs to be on making the smart play. If the basket is wide open for a layup or a dunk, take the shot. However, if the rebound is in traffic, pass the ball out to the perimeter and reset the offense, rather than handing it to the other team on an errant shot.
What do you guys think is the most important?
