I will preface the article with this thought: I know it's too early. I know we as a collective are focused on Denver Nuggets games and Denver Nuggets happenings as of now. But the future of our team is also incredibly important; we currently sit #7 in the tank standings and, being 3-7 in our last 10, are sinking fast.
As my username might have already indicated, you may find that I am high on foreign players. It's not exactly that I uniformly overrate them (though I would argue that the vast majority of foreign prospects are uniformly underrated, probably because they have an unaccounted-for IQ bump (though I was low on Mario Hezonja precisely because of his low IQ)), but it really is that this class of foreigners is just that excellent.
One more note - the "NBA comparisons" are typically based on the style with which these prospects play. No one is saying Simmons is going to be a top-10 player of all-time, or that some prospect in the 20's is on track to be an NBA superstar.
Without further ado:
Tier 1
1. Ben Simmons, PF/PG/SF/C, LSU
The man among boys in the article picture and the man of the entire draft season. I hope you weren't disappointed that it wasn't a foreign player, though I will point out Benny grew up in Australia, away from AAU ball (son of an Australian-league basketballer) and best friends with cutiepie Dante Exum. To deter me from ranking a 7-1 super-smart super-skilled Croatian #1, Simmons has to be amazing, right?
On that note, Simmons is simply incredible. He's a man-child and a future NBA two-way star and probably a future NBA superstar. He is 19.6 years old, stands 6-10, 245 with a 7-0 wingspan, and he's such an elegant player. He gets to his top speed with the ball in his hands in just two steps and he runs like a cheetah, though because he wastes zero movement his speed is deceptive in nature. His sheer size/speed combo is the reason his only flaw--jump-shooting--will never be a flaw regardless. If you sag off of him in the half-court offense, you give him room to get a head of steam, which you simply cannot do. Just like LeBron James or Russell Westbrook - yes, he is that kind of slasher.
The most impressive thing about Simmons is his court-vision and play-making ability. He might run an NBA team as the offensive point-guard from day one, as he is legitimately a LeBron/Magic-level of passing prospect (to compare to other 6-8+ guys). He also has an elite handle, so tight and low.
And if you thought that was all there was to him, you were so wrong. Other areas that appear ready to be NBA-elite in the near future for Simmons are his rebounding (third in the entire country at 12.6 rebounds per game), his finishing (shooting 80% at the rim; compared to other perimeter prospects, that's ELITE SUPERNOVA), and his defense (3.1 steals+blocks per game, great lateral quickness and can reasonably switch onto any player in the NBA).
And, lastly: that supposed "fatal flaw"? Bullshit. Simmons is shooting 75% at the free-throw line, the most predictive stat of future shooting success, and he looks fine shooting 3's in warm-ups/shootarounds; the potential is there. It's not out of the question whatsoever that he gets drafted, gets an offseason of development from his NBA team and comes into his rookie season shooting NBA 3-pointers with good ability and high confidence, just like non-shooting prospect Kawhi Leonard once did.
NBA comparison: LeBron James
Tier 2
2. Dragan Bender, PF/C, Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ahh, there's that trusty Croatian. Coming in as the youngest player in the whole draft (18.1 years old) and standing about 7-1, 225, with a 7-2 wingspan and a 9-4 standing reach, Bender (who runs away with the 'name of the draft' award, obviously) is one of the highest-IQ young prospects Europe has seen since Ricky Rubio, and he possesses downright ridiculous physical and athletic tools; he adds skills to his game over offseasons like he's a god damn NBA 2k player (obviously having a 99 Potential rating from the get-go), this past offseason working on his shot to the point that it's now his favorite scoring weapon (45% from beyond the arc on the season).
His passing ability+vision is arguably his greatest skill as well. He can bring the ball up in transition, and, playing off the ball in the half-court, he delivers out passes as he receives them, spotting open teammates before they even know they're open. On the other side of the ball, Bender is a great shot-blocker and should become an awesome rim-protector as his body fills out (and his is definitely the type of body to support more weight), but even more interesting is that his foot speed and hip-fluidity allow him to guard much smaller (and much more explosive) players.
For his apparent role on both sides of the ball (I have seen the comparison once before), the way he could be deployed as a do-everything player who excels in multiple areas, the NBA player I would compare Bender to is Draymond Green. Besides being six to seven inches taller than Green (and probably lacking some toughness/energy about his game), Bender is different from Green in how advanced his IQ and game is at his young age. He's no guarantee to develop into a player of Green's caliber--a top-3 player on an all-time great team--but he could also be a superior player in the future NBA, to be sure.
NBA comparison: 7-1 Draymond Green
3. Brandon Ingram, SF/PF, Duke
Some stupid American-born asshole, blah blah. In seriousness, Ingram's a bizarrely strong prospect. The key difference in Bender>Ingram is that the former has advantages in IQ, rim-protection and possibly playmaking (where Ingram leads Dragan clearly in explosiveness and perimeter defense).
But that's not to take away from Ingram. He is the consensus #2 guy, deservingly-ish (they just don't know Bender yet!), and he hasn't a flaw in his whole profile. Where typical highly-touted two-way wing athlete recruits usually flame out, Ingram has risen to the challenge and beyond. The Durant comparison was still ridiculous, but he projects somewhere between the two pairs of Klay Thompson/Khris Middleton and Paul George/Kawhi Leonard.
In the spring of 2015, Ingram was measured at nearly 6-10 in shoes, 200 lbs, with a 7-3 wingspan and nearly a 9-2 standing reach. After a tumultuous start to the season, he has been going supernova for over a month straight now. His most prolific skill is his shooting, with a dashingly beautiful form which could be almost unblockable in the NBA. He's an excellent driver, plays with high IQ, is a good creator for his teammates and has quickly developed into a wonderful defender. There is no flaw in his profile. He is one of the best wing prospects of the last decade-plus, and only falls to #3 here because of how good the top-3 of this class is.
NBA comparison: Kawhi Leonard
Tier 3
This is where most people suggest a huge drop-off exists. And, I agree, if you pigeonhole Kris Dunn or non-first round prospects Skal Labissiere and Jamal Murray as top-5 in this class, sure, there is an absolutely massive drop in the quality of prospects.
But there are other faces out there who aren't so ridiculously miscast as top-5 picks:
4. Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Anadolu Efes
Things I love to search for in prospects are outlier skills. It's why, unless he had an elite handle that wasn't clear on tape, I wasn't a big fan of Mudiay for us last draft--he did nothing especially well; no part of his profile stuck out (besides his physical tools being clearly above-average), and he had flaws to boot. The reason I love young players with outlier-good skills is that it could indicate that they have incredible work-ethics and will perhaps learn the rest of the game and develop faster and to greater extents than their peers.
Korkmaz possesses an outlier skill, one that is at an all-time premium in the modern NBA: shooting! Korkmaz is just 18 years old, having played last season for Efes at just 17, and he is 6-8, 190, with a likely 6-8 to 6-10 wingspan (figure not reported anywhere). His shot form is odd, but he gets it off incredibly quick and with unconscionable confidence. Here is a write-up on Furkan from SBN sister site LibertyBallers.
Furkan also has a great feel/IQ, is an advanced ball-handler and is overly conscious of his flaws--his defense and his low weight.
NBA comparison: 6-8 C.J. McCollum
5. Timothe Luwawu, SF/SG/PF, Mega Vizura
The second of the Euro wing prospects who belong in the top-5. Luwawu's physical tools and athletic gifts are incredible, at 6-7, 210, with a 7-2 wingspan, and he is amazingly explosive off the dribble. Truly fearless finishing through traffic, above the rim. Luwawu is a good shooter off both the catch and the dribble, being capable of handling in the pick-and-roll, and is a great passer with excellent court vision.
At 21 (turning 22 before the draft), he also is a good defender already. The one hole in his profile is his turnovers, which are a result of his loose handle. He is similar to Paul George as a prospect that, if he patches up his handle, he could be a two-way star in a number of years.
NBA comparison: Paul George
6. Zhou Qi, C/PF, Xinjiang Guanghui
This will probably seem especially high, I know. But Qi (name might be translated in the states to Joe Chi, not sure) stands 7-2, 215, with nearly a 7-7 wingspan and a 9-7 standing reach (same as Rudy Gobert). He's a fluid athlete, but more important are his basketball skills: he has rim-protecting instincts that very few have ever possessed at his age (turned 20 several days ago), and he is a great finisher as well as a good shooter and good passer with great court vision.
Qi is the best player on the best team in the CBA. Bulking up, which he knows he has to accomplish as soon as possible as well as as much as possible before his 2018 NBA debut, is his one issue. He has outlier physical tools as well as a very possible outlier skill, so, I'm a big fan.
NBA comparison: 7-2 Al Horford
7. Henry Ellenson, PF, Marquette
Ellenson's pure statistical profile isn't all that alluring, but it's the eye test where he comes through massively. He has such a silky jumpshot from mid-range, and I would bet it starts falling from 3P soon, or at least in the NBA before long. He also is insanely comfortable as a passer from the post and the perimeter, and he puts effort in on defense. He's 19, and stands 6-11, 230 (lost 40 lbs over the last few years), with a 7-2 wingspan.
NBA comparison: 6-11 Paul Millsap
8. Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah
Poeltl has one of the highest actual "floors" of all the prospects in the draft. He is very mobile at 7-1, 240, with a 7-1 wingspan, and just turned 20 a few months ago. He is exceptional (but likely not near the NBA elite) in multiple areas, including screening and rolling/diving, finishing through contact, rebounding, and defending (not quite blocking shots, but protecting the rim, perhaps).
He is the typical limited-role offensive center who is effective there but gets most of his value on defense. Has slight chance at his ceiling to develop into one of the best 20 or 30 players in the league, but is also almost sure to be a top-100 player.
In any case, he's positively not a future Nugget, so, eh.
NBA comparison: Mason Plumlee
Tier 4
9. Ivan Rabb, PF/C, Cal
Rabb is a weird prospect in that I don't have a good feel for him. But he's 6-10 in shoes, 220, with a 7-2 wingspan. He is quite possibly elite at finishing and rebounding, and he has soft touch with a very good indicator for future shooting success in his 75% from the line free-throw line. He doesn't block as many shots as you would hope, but he passes the eye test on defense. This could easily be far too low for an exceptional athlete and possible two-way stud NBA player.
NBA comparison: Amir Johnson
10.Stephen Zimmerman, C/PF, UNLV
Zimmerman is a very athletic 7-footer (235 lbs, 7-3 wingspan) who rebounds at an elite rate, blocks shots well and has real range on his shot. The questions from me deal with his smarts--literally the fact that he chose to attend UNLV, as well as his A:TO ratio. But it would be incredibly silly to bet against such a good all-around profile.
NBA comparison: Derrick Favors
11. Demetrius Jackson, PG/SG, Notre Dame
A diminutive but explosive guard, at 6-1, 200, with a 6-5 wingspan. He's an amazing shooter off the dribble and the catch, has played very successfully as a point guard and off the ball (next to Jerian Grant), and he tries on defense.
NBA comparison: Patty Mills
12. Wade Baldwin, SG/PG, Vanderbilt
Baldwin is an excellent all-around guard who has become a darling of all draftniks this season. He is 6-3, 200, with a 6-10 wingspan. He shoots very well, has a good handle, has excellent court vision and defends well.
NBA comparison: George Hill
13. Denzel Valentine, SG/SF, Michigan State
Valentine is so good at everything on the college level, and he deserves to be the National Player of the Year. Standing 6-5, 220 with a 6-11 wingspan, he translates to the NBA as an elite off-ball passer, an excellent shooter, a good rebounder and at least a solid defender.
NBA comparison: 6-5 Nic Batum
Tier 5
14. Jaylen Brown, SF/PF/SG, Cal
Brown has not lived up to his billing as a defender, but he has NBA skills in his ability to straight-line drive, finish through contact and draw fouls. If an NBA team thinks it can teach him, an elite athlete and specimen at 6-7, 220, 6-11, how to defend and/or how to shoot, he will go higher than this.
NBA comparison: DeMar DeRozan
15. Taurean Prince, SF/PF, Baylor
A very explosive and very well-built senior who shoots well and scores very efficiently. He plays hard D, rebounds well, and stands 6-8, 220, with a nearly 7-0 wingspan.
NBA comparison: Harrison Barnes
16. Nigel Hayes, SF/PF, Wisconsin
One of the most intelligent and most toolsy players in the whole draft, standing 6-8, 240, with a near 7-4 wingspan. He's playing on a Wisconsin team in turmoil this year, but last year he showed that he can be a successful shooter in the right context. This year he's showing that he can create for his teammates a ton, but not scoring efficiently while doing it. One of the best defenders in the draft.
NBA comparison: 6-8 Jae Crowder
17. Jonathan Jeanne, C/PF, Le Mans
Jeanne is one of the biggest 'projects' in the draft this year, but could be a huge steal if he ends up declaring. He's 7-2, 200, with a near 7-7 wingspan, and has excellent raw skills in his shot-blocking and perhaps his finishing. He is an elite vertical athlete, and he also shows signs of having a 3-point shot.
NBA comparison: Kristaps Porzingis
18. Patrick McCaw, SG/SF, UNLV
McCaw was an unheralded recruit last year who has become one of the best players in the nation in his sophomore year. His shooting has fallen back down to average, but he's an excellent ball-handler and passer (at 6-6, 190, 6-10 wingspan, no less), great finisher, and he has a super-elite steal rate.
NBA comparison: Evan Fournier
19. Kris Dunn, PG, Providence
Way over-ranked by consensus draft sites -- his handle is very loose, he takes dumb shots, and makes dumb decisions with the ball. His shot doesn't have all that much room for hope, finally becoming above-average at age 22. His defense is great, and he's athletic as hell, very good at driving and finishing with the ball.
NBA comparison: Michael Carter-Williams
20. Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
An awesomely explosive 2-guard with a great shot who is relentless as a driver and fearless as a finisher. A presumed weaker defender, but solidly sized at 6-4, 190, with a near 6-7 wingspan.
NBA comparison: Tyler Johnson
21. Caris LeVert, SG/SF, Michigan
LeVert might be low here, as a great ball-handler with great size at 6-7, 200, and around a 6-9 wingspan. He is one of the best two or three shooters in the class, especially off the dribble, and he's a young senior to boot. He's probably a weaker defender, though, at least as of now, and he likely won't be as high-usage in the NBA.
NBA comparison: Somewhere from Rodney Hood to Gordon Hayward
22. Monte Morris, PG, Iowa State
Intelligent, record-breaking assist to turnover ratios, good shooter, great finisher, good defender. But 6-3, 200, 6-5 guards who aren't explosive haven't done as well in recent years, so he falls here. But instinct says to put him higher.
NBA comparison: Lesser Chris Paul
23. Melo Trimble, PG, Maryland
Older sophomore, 6-2, 185, 6-2 wingspan, non-explosive athlete. But he's an excellent shooter off the dribble and one of the best slashers in the class--gets to the free-throw line at an incredible rate. Much improved passer, great court vision, and a likely non-defender in the NBA.
NBA comparison: Kyrie Irving with lesser handle
24. Petr Cornelie, PF, Le Mans
6-11 (225) athletes with 7-5 arms and pure shooting strokes aren't too common. He's also a strong rebounder and a good finisher. Strong bet to be a good player, being a Euro big with excellent tools and good skills.
NBA comparison: Jon Leuer
Tier 6
25. Chieck Diallo, C/PF, Kansas
He's playing well recently, and it seems as if he'll end up going in the lottery at least. But he's an undersized big (6-9, 220, 7-4) with elite athleticism and an elite motor and good coordination. He's a shot-blocker and a finisher.
NBA comparison: Festus Ezeli
26. Deyonta Davis, C/PF, Michigan State
Similar to Diallo, an undersized big (6-10, 225, 7-2), but a good athlete, great shot-blocker and great finisher.
NBA comparison: Tristan Thompson plus shot-blocking
27. Josh Hart, SG, Villanova
Really smart player, good shooter, elite finisher, great rebounder, tough defender. Good size at 6-5, 205, 6-8 wingspan.
NBA comparison: Will Barton
28. Dedric Lawson, SF/PF, Memphis
Turned 18 just before the season started, and he's a giant on the court, so reported measurements from when he was 16 are surely off. I would estimate he stands over 6-9 in shoes, with a 7-2 or 7-3 wingspan, weighing around 215 lbs. He's great on defense, but he's extremely raw on offense. Handling extremely high usage, so he has some promise.
NBA comparison: Andre Iguodala (big stretch, but it's the best I could come up with)
29. Ivica Zubac, C, Cibona Zagreb
Young Euro 7-footer with a great frame who is a very strong rebounder, finisher and rim-protector.
NBA comparison: Marcin Gortat
30. Thomas Bryant, C/PF, Indiana
Young big with amazing tools (6-11, 245, 7-6 wingspan, 9-5 standing reach) who is a statistically elite finisher. Solid rebounder, decent shot-blocker, and with hope for putting range on his shot.
NBA comparison: Dwight Powell
31. Kay Felder, PG, Oakland
Tiny guy (5-9, 180) who is blowing up college basketball. Good to great shooter, awesome passer, smart offensive player.
NBA comparison: Isaiah Thomas
32. Jarrod Uthoff, PF, Iowa
Solid sized 4 (6-10, 220, 6-11) who has been a great shooter all three years, and has become a good shot-blocker this year. Weak rebounder, but a smart player.
NBA comparison: Spencer Hawes
33. Gary Payton II, SG/PG, Oregon State
The best college perimeter defender in the class, and an elite rebounder for his size/position. Only about 6-3, 185, and a near 6-7 wingspan. If an NBA team can rework his shot, he can be a really great off-ball guard (or develop into a PG, perhaps).
NBA comparison: Tony Allen
34. Chinanu Onuaku, C, Louisville
Was incredibly young as a freshman, and has become elite in numerous areas as a sophomore. Rebounding looks very elite, defense and generating turnovers look very elite, and he's become a very good scorer/finisher.
NBA comparison: Ian Mahinmi
35. Keita Bates-Diop, SF/PF, Ohio State
Shooting profile that looks like Paul George's: really high 3P% freshman year, low FT% freshman year, average 3P% sophomore year, high FT% sophomore year. He's 6-7, 235, with a wingspan in the 7-4 (!) range. Really low assist rate, low steal rate, no certainty in his shot. So he falls here.
NBA comparison: Chandler Parsons
36. Jamal Murray, SG/PG, Kentucky
He has been very very bad. But he can shoot it a bit and he has some ball-handling upside. Non-athlete but large frame at 6-4, 200, 6-6 wingspan.
NBA comparison: Nik Stauskas
37. Luke Kennard, SG, Duke
Old freshman, turns 20 the day of the draft. 6-6, 190, with a 6-5 wingspan. And not very athletic to boot. But he is very intelligent, he gets to the FT line a bit, and he will probably shoot very well in the NBA. Not shooting well on 3's this year but he is making FT's at a near historically good rate. Has clear bust potential but also some good player potential.
38. Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga
Think his defending well in space may be an underrated skill. Appears to already make most of his limited physical tools (bloodlinez), at 6-10, with a 6-10 wingspan, where he is one of the best rebounders in the nation as well as one of the top and most efficient scorers. Doesn't get steals or blocks.
NBA comparison: LaMarcus Aldridge
39. Ante Zizic, C, Cibona Zagreb
Efficient player, gets to the FT line, makes FTs at a solid rate, rebounds, blocks shots, young, 6-11.
NBA comparison: Steven Adams
Tier 7
40. JaQuan Lyle, PG, Ohio State
Big at 6-5 with a 6-9 wingspan, solid athlete and he passes well. Defends decently right now. If a team can put a shot on him, he will be a steal.
NBA comparison: Ricky Rubio
41. Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma
Late bloomer, sure, but doesn't look like more than a solid to good shooter, and almost nothing else.
NBA comparison: Jodie Meeks
42. Jae'Sean Tate, SG, Ohio State
Smart player, great defender and rebounder, 6-4, 220, 6-8 wingspan, non-shooter.
NBA comparison: Andre Roberson
43. Vasilis Charalampopoulos, SF/PF, Panathinaikos
High IQ 6-8 young guy. Great passer, efficient scorer but non-shooter. If he develops a shot, he'll be great.
NBA comparison: Otto Porter
44. Skal Labissiere, PF, Kentucky
Flat out doesn't rebound. His bankable NBA skill is one that isn't displayed at Kentucky. Incredibly 'soft', and incredibly unintelligent player. 6-11, decent wingspan and solidly explosive. Blocks a few shots.
NBA comparison: Explosive Brandon Bass
45. Malik Beasley, SG, Florida State
Great scorer and shooter, good rebounder. Possibly low-intelligence. 6-5.
NBA comparison: Anthony Morrow
...
That wraps up the board. Many players left off of it, especially possibly good foreign guys, but that's my top-45 with the information we have.
Thanks for reading, if you got to this point. Hope you enjoyed!
Let me know your thoughts below! Meaningful discussion in the comments is the entire decided goal of the post. :)