FanPost

The Statistical Silver Linings

Denver Nuggets

Many times this year, I have used numbers to attempt to prove a point in my posts. Many times I say something positive, but I usually combine said number with a caveat or a negative statistic. This is used to create a silver lining for certain decisions or ideas.

At 16-26, silver linings have been very important for the Denver Nuggets this season. Danilo Gallinari has fully assumed a #1 scorer's mentality, Will Barton has broken out in a big way, and the young guys have continued a nice development trend.

Each and every player on the roster has a positive statistic in their respective lines for the season. Here they are:

Denver Nuggets: The Statistical Silver Linings

Player Statistic Rank Among Position
Emmanuel Mudiay per 36 #'s N/A
Gary Harris 36.8% from 3 15th among SGs
Danilo Gallinari 6.5% TO rate T-5th lowest among SFs
Kenneth Faried 14.9% OREB rate 1st among PFs
Nikola Jokic 1.31 ORPM 4th among Cs
Will Barton Everything Infinity
Jameer Nelson 5.1 AST 24th in NBA qualified
Randy Foye 3 "5 Three" Games 10th ish (lol)
Darrell Arthur 49.6% from 16<3 6th in NBA
Joffrey Lauvergne 50/40/90? 22nd ever?
Jusuf Nurkic 14.5 REB per 36 Would rank 2nd in NBA
JJ Hickson 18/42 games Last among healthy Nuggets
Mike Miller 90% FGs from 3 Highest among Nuggets
Sean Kilpatrick 2nd 10 day deal More than most

Emmanuel Mudiay - per 36 Stats

There are so many things I can start with, but for now, I will begin with the young rookie driving this season. Here are Emmanuel Mudiay's per 36 numbers in comparison to current top tier PGs in their first years.

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Stephen Curry 2009-10 21 80 77 2896 6.6 14.2 .462 2.1 4.7 .437 4.5 9.5 .474 2.2 2.5 .885 0.6 3.8 4.4 5.9 1.9 0.2 3.0 3.1 17.4
2 Kyle Lowry 2006-07 20 10 0 175 2.9 7.8 .368 0.6 1.6 .375 2.3 6.2 .367 5.1 5.8 .893 2.5 3.9 6.4 6.6 2.9 0.2 2.5 4.1 11.5
3 Emmanuel Mudiay 2015-16 19 29 27 853 4.9 15.4 .321 1.0 3.7 .261 4.0 11.6 .341 2.4 3.8 .629 0.8 3.4 4.1 7.0 1.2 0.8 4.6 2.5 13.2
4 Chris Paul 2005-06 20 78 78 2808 5.2 12.1 .430 0.6 2.3 .282 4.6 9.9 .464 5.1 6.0 .847 0.8 4.3 5.1 7.8 2.2 0.1 2.3 2.8 16.1
5 John Wall 2010-11 20 69 64 2606 5.5 13.4 .409 0.5 1.6 .296 5.0 11.8 .425 4.2 5.4 .766 0.5 3.9 4.4 7.9 1.7 0.5 3.6 2.4 15.6
6 Russell Westbrook 2008-09 20 82 65 2668 5.9 14.8 .398 0.5 1.7 .271 5.4 13.0 .415 4.7 5.8 .815 2.4 3.0 5.4 5.9 1.5 0.2 3.7 2.6 16.9
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2016.

(Apologies for no headers for the stats :( I tried lol)

Now, there are some interesting numbers here, and some very suspect numbers. One thing I will point out is that Curry went to Davidson, Westbrook went to UCLA, Paul went to Wake Forest, Wall went to Kentucky, Lowry went to Villanova, and Mudiay went to China for 11 games. For a player who was going to be raw even if he went to SMU, the school he was previously committed to before declaring for China, Mudiay only played 11 games...This is basically his first year in college, and he's playing against the best in the world. Also, Mudiay is still a year younger than where those other players were coming into the NBA, as his first season of 19 is the youngest of the six.

But onto the stats. Mudiay is taking 15.4 FGAs per 36 minutes and 3.8 FTAs. This shooting experience is very good for him and guarantees that he will see enough of a sample size in the off season to attempt to improve each facet of his shooting. He needs work everywhere obviously, but with our development team, I feel confident that Mudiay's shooting will jump at least 5 percentage points in year 2.

Also, if there's any consolation, Mudiay averages the most blocks among the group, like this one.

Gary Harris - 36.8% from 3 point range

I was genuinely surprised to find that Gary Harris was 15th among SGs in 3 point percentage. He struggled after getting out to a hot start, but has since recovered and made a huge impact from beyond the arc. He's sitting right in front of Kyle Korver and Wesley Matthews, so at a ripe age of 21, he definitely has room to grow.

In the past few weeks, I have made the comparison to Bradley Beal for Gary Harris, and after looking at each of their second seasons, I see that it may be an apt one.

Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/48
1 Bradley Beal 2013-14 20 73 2530 14.3 .507 .299 .164 2.4 10.2 6.3 16.0 1.4 0.6 9.4 24.3 1.6 2.4 4.0 .076
2 Gary Harris 2015-16 21 37 1122 11.3 .548 .383 .161 2.5 7.7 5.0 9.8 1.6 0.7 12.3 16.5 0.9 0.4 1.3 .054
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/22/2016.

(Same)

Here, Harris and Beal are relatively similar across, but where Harris trumps Beal in efficiency, Beal far outpaces Harris in usage and assist rate, meaning he has the ball in his hands a ton more. Considering the comparison to John Wall has been made to Mudiay at times, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Harris to model his game after Beal as he grows more comfortable offensively.

As we have seen in Golden State, former Michigan State Spartan Draymond Green has had a late growth in his game. Harris seems like a candidate to continue to growing at a steady pace before we finally see a couple of 25 to 30 point performances out of him next year. That kind of expansion would be great, and it would add to his above average shooting from distance.

Danilo Gallinari - 6.5% Turnover Rate

Even this stat is even deceptive, as it doesn't credit Gallo the credit he is due in this area. With his added responsibilities to our team, he has handled the ball, scored more, and overall just been handed a boatload of pressure by Malone to guide this young team. He hasn't bat an eyelash, at least in handling the ball, and has been mistake free in making sure at least he or someone else gets up a shot.

Again though, it doesn't tell how good he's been in this situation. The five players above/tied with him:

  • Luke Babbitt - 14.7 mpg
  • TJ Warren - 22.9 mpg
  • Metta World Peace - 17.6 mpg
  • P.J. Hairston - 17.0 mpg
  • Nick Young - 19.0 mpg

None of them play near the minutes that Gallo does at 34.4 mpg, nor do they have the same responsibilities. Gallinari has been very good about doing his job every game lately, and the limit on turnovers helps him immensely.

Kenneth Faried - 14.9% Offensive Rebounding Rate

While Faried has many faults in his game, offensive rebounding and getting "effort" boards has never been one of them. He leads all Power Forwards in O Rebounding Rate, and his overall rate is 4th. This is a top notch skill, and while he struggles to box out on the defensive glass at times, there is no one in the league who rebounds the offensive glass like Faried except Andre Drummond, Enes Kanter, and Ed Davis. The main thing going for all of those guys is size, while Faried is a true hustler.

It's been a struggle for me to appreciate Kenneth Faried, but his skill set is definitely useful in this league, and he should continue to be utilized in situations where we need a big rebound (cough Memphis cough).

Nikola Jokic - 1.31 Offensive Real Plus/Minus

Nikola Jokic has the makings of an offensive star, and there are many reasons why this is the truth. Out of all the seasons to ever happen in the NBA, according to Basketball Reference, only one Center accumulated a True Shooting Percentage of .600 and had a 15% assist rate in the process: Nikola Jokic. If the search is expanded to every Center in every season in NBA history, it has only happened 14 times. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar did it 5 times and Wilt Chamberlain did it once.

Jokic is in rare company. I'm very excited for his future as a platoon Center with Nurkic the rest of this year. At some point, the Nuggets may have to make a choice between the two, and it would be hard pressed for me to not pick Jokic.

Will Barton - Everything

What can I say about Will Barton that hasn't been said 100 times? He's had a breakout in a major way, and he's a candidate for 6th Man of the Year and Most Improved Player. He's literally improved everything this season. The list of players to average at least 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 2.5 assists is made up of all stars from years past, current all stars, and future all stars. The worst player on the list is either Nikola Vucevic or Giannis Antetokounmpo, so he's in pretty great company. We very well may count Barton among the future all stars soon.

Jameer Nelson - 5.1 Assists per game

This season, Jameer Nelson was forced to step into a workload that for many veterans his age would be unsuitable. Nelson, however, has done an adequate to above average job being a "minutes eater," to steal a baseball term, and has shown the young guys how to be a veteran on the court in a successful way. Over the course of his career, Nelson has averaged incredibly close to the same number of rebounds, assists, blocks and steals that he has accumulated throughout his career.

The only difference in these numbers are his overall points and percentages from the field and beyond the arc, which are all career lows. His defense has suffered a bit too, but overall, Jameer has been fairly consistent this season and a great leader on the team. His assist numbers have helped provide great looks for teammates, and his passes are near always crisp and on point. Mudiay is in good hands learning from Jameer Nelson for awhile.

Randy Foye - Three "Five 3 pt make" games this season

Foye has certainly had a difficult season shooting the ball this season, but he hasn't forgotten how to shoot. Only about 10 other players in the association have hit that threshold in three games this year. For poops and giggles, Steph Curry has done it 14 times in 41 games, or over a third of the time.

While we give crap to Foye, there are certainly times where he can rain down from distance. He's been handling the ball as a PG lately, but I maintain that he's at his best when utilized as an off-ball shooter. He just needs to keep making higher than 35% of his threes if we are going to continue letting him 3.2 attempts per game. So far in January, he's shot a putrid 31.3% from the field and an even worse 15.8% from 3 pt in January. Those attempts could be going to the youngster Sean Kilpatrick if Foye continues to shoot so poorly overall.

Darrell Arthur - 49.6% from in between 16 feet and 3 pt

I knew that Darrell Arthur was strong in the mid range, but he just hasn't missed this year. In previous years, he shot as high as 47.3%, but in Denver, this is BY FAR his best shooting season from the perimeter. Only Mo Williams, Tony Parker, Jason Smith, Ryan Anderson, and Otto Porter have a higher percentage among those who have taken at least 75 FGAs from the same range. He's even shot 41.5% from 3 (though on 1 attempt).

With Arthur's defensive smarts and Malone's reliance on him, Arthur's role has greatly expanded in January, going from 18.1 mpg in December to 25.3 mpg in January. This is both a good and bad thing, because while Arthur has earned most of it, players like Jokic, Nurkic, and Lauvergne lose time. If the Nuggets continue to lose more games than they win going into the trade deadline, then we may see either a move or a minute alteration for Arthur or possibly Faried.

Joffrey Lauvergne - 50/40/90 season?

Last year, Meyers Leonard of the Portland Trailblazers pulled off a 50/40/90 season as a sweet shooting big man, and at this point, Joffrey Lauvergne is on pace to join him. Of course, he has less volume than someone like Steph Curry or Larry Bird, but 50/40/90 is still an amazing accomplishment when it's only happened 20 times EVER. Those 20 times include 6 times with less than 50 shot attempts, so it's more like 14 times ever. Steph Curry and King Joffrey are set to join the ranks at this current pace, and it would be a great statistical achievement for the young Frenchman.

Jusuf Nurkic - 14.5 Rebounds per 36 minutes

While his stats are not listed due to small sample size, Nurkic has been an absolute monster in the middle this season. His 14.5 REB per 36 multiplies his per game numbers almost 3 times due to low minutes and going against bench players, but the eye test tells us that those numbers are no lie, and that Nurkic has made his presence felt off the bench on the glass. He also plays solid defense, blocks shots, and draws the defense in when he's on the other end of the court, but his best quantifiable skill has been his rebounding. He averages 2 Offensive Rebounds per game...a number only matched by Andre Drummond in the per 36 department.

Between Nurkic and Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets are in a good place right now. The time may come where they have to choose between the two players (which means playing them together wouldn't be a bad idea), and the more difficult the choice is, the more likely both players are approaching high level impact.

Here's the game against Minnesota. He was incredibly dominant during his minutes and made Karl-Anthony Towns, the favorite for Rookie of the Year, look pedestrian.

JJ Hickson - 18 out of 42 games played

This one isn't really a positive statistic per say, but it is positive for the team as a whole. JJ Hickson has been largely effective in his limited minutes, posting the highest block rate, steal rate, and assist rate in his time in Denver, while having the lowest turnover rate. That being said, the Nuggets have better options, and from past experiences with Hickson, they have figured out that he is not the answer.

With Nurkic, Jokic, Faried, Arthur, and Lauvergne all deserving reasonable minutes, Hickson has been the odd man out most of the time. This shows a good progression to the franchise and allows actual development to happen, and while JJ does a few things well, his deficiencies make it difficult to play him regular minutes. Again, a bittersweet stat for the Nuggets, but one that shows true direction.

Mike Miller - 90.5% FGs attempted from 3 pt

This is an incredible stat. Of the 42 shots that Mike Miller has attempted in Denver, 4 have come from inside the 3 point line. He makes threes at a quality rate of over 36% when he gets the shot off, but he does little more than stand on the perimeter and make sure that if he does take a shot attempt, it's worth 3 points. This provides quality spacing for the rest of the team, and every opponent respects Mike Miller's 3 point shot.

Magic Mike hasn't played very often this season due to the emergence of Will Barton and the overall health of Danilo Gallinari, but his presence on the bench his felt by every player on the team. He's always up cheering his teammates on, and when he gets off the bench, it's usually in a clutch situation when Malone can count on him. He makes the simple plays, and it really wouldn't surprise me if he made a game winning shot later this season. Let's hope!

Sean Kilpatrick - 2nd 10 Day Contract Achieved

Kilpatrick hasn't truly played enough to decipher whether he's a good candidate to be the 15th man on the roster long term, but for all intensive purposes, he proved enough to the organization that he deserved another look. That speaks to his work effort and his willingness to be a part of the team process. Like Miller above him, Kilpatrick can be seen supporting his teammates after positive plays, however big or small they are.

He has a jumpshot on him, so hopefully he can give a lift to the team eventually. As it is, Randy Foye is working as the de facto backup PG, but when Jameer Nelson comes back, I would love for Kilpatrick to either push Foye to shoot better or move him out of the rotation entirely.

***

As can see seen above, there are many positives in the numbers for this season. From Mudiay looking good after his ankle injury, to Gallo growing into a leadership role offensively, to Jokic posting incredible numbers for a Center offensively, the year is not a "lost" year if they don't make the playoffs.

As I see it now, we will continue to get better as team if everyone is healthy and continues to make incremental improvements. That being said, if the season ended today, I would be very happy with the progress made and am looking forward to the seasons to come with this group of players.

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