My how the times have changed.

Remember around May of 2013, after we had just been eliminated from the playoffs against Golden State, how the Nuggets fans were reacting? One thought provided the Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried injuries as an excuse. One thought decided that the Warriors got hot at the right time and there was nothing we could do. One thought expressed that we had overachieved throughout the regular season and said that this was the likely scenario.

The predominant thought was that a first round exit was our ceiling with George Karl as the head coach of the Denver Nuggets. It was time to make a change, and hopefully a new voice would be able to reach the players and tap into the playoff winning potential that we all knew they had.

We all wish that was how it went down, but sadly, the Nuggets haven't exactly been a lucky franchise.

Not only did George Karl leave, but Masai Ujiri took his talents across the border, Andre Iguodala took a smaller role on less money with the team that eliminated the 2012-13 team, and even Corey Brewer left the team that gave him his first true opportunity for the Minnesota Timberwolves. This left the Nuggets with Brian Shaw, Randy Foye, and a bunch of questions that us fans had no ability to answer.

The following season in 2013-14 was a painful one. Too many injuries took down the Nuggets squad, and by the end of the season, they were playing a rotation of Aaron Brooks, Randy Foye, Evan Fournier, Wilson Chandler, Quincy Miller, Kenneth Faried, Jan Vesely, and Timofey Mozgov. Yikes....

That team still managed to fight hard for the coach, though, and there was optimism going into the 2014-15 season. We still managed to win 36 games with that many injuries! What would the ceiling be with Lawson, Gallo, and even McGee back in the fold? We reacquired Arron Afflalo for Fournier and a late 2nd round pick, turned Doug McDermott into Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris, filling our two biggest needs of Center and Shooting Guard depth at the time, and looked to be rolling into the season.

Obviously, things didn't go as planned...again. Afflalo wasn't the player we wanted him to be. We didn't need Kobe lite. We needed the old reliable AAA, the guy who shot 40% from 3 and played solid defense all the time as one of the best complimentary players in the league. Who we got back was a contested-shot-happy 3rd option who thought it best that he was the 1st option. Combining that with the slow return of Gallinari, the disappointing stagnancy of Kenneth Faried, and the intolerable coaching and managing of Brian Shaw, and the season was lost 40 games into the year. 1-2-3, 6 weeks still rings in my mind like a gong.

The team has undergone massive changes since the end of the year. Gone is Brian Shaw, replaced by Mike Malone. Gone is Ty Lawson, replaced by Emmanuel Mudiay. Most importantly, gone is the stink of the 2014-15 season, replaced by the potential of the unknown.

Most of us would accept a playoff berth even if it meant a first round exit. I know I will never again be unsatisfied with making the playoffs, especially doing so as many times as we did. Now, however, we need to be realistic on the next time we can all be satisfied with a playoff berth.

Lawson is gone, and with him went our chances of grabbing one of the last playoff spots this year. The team is too young and the top level talent isn't enough to get us into the playoffs immediately. We need to accept that as fact and think about how to best set ourselves up for the future.

How do we do this? Well, we need to hold onto as much current, prime talent as we can. Gallinari, Faried, Chandler, and others can be key pieces in a playoff push. In the past, I have vouched for turning as many of these assets into young prospects and picks with higher ceilings. While this sounds good in theory, the guys we get may not have half of the capability the current pieces do, so while trading one of them may be wise, trading all would be too much of a gamble.

Next, we continue to develop the young talent we have. Guys like Mudiay, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Joffrey Lauvergne, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Erick Green, and Kostas Papanikolaou have potential ranging from superstar to capable role player in a playoff rotation. 8 guys under the age of 25. All of them should be kept. All of them should be played large minutes at some point over the season to see if they can develop into guys we can center the roster around. Not necessarily as starters for all of them, but guys that we want playing 20+ minutes per game because they help us win.

So when can we make the playoffs then? Well that depends on how quickly the guys develop, whether we can draft a star caliber player next year, and whether we can surround the current cast with better veterans or not.

I'm not going to talk about the second point at all because it's such an unknown, and I'm going to assume that Connelly will get the right veteran guys in Free Agency when we are ready for them. What I am going to go into is the development of our own guys: when they will reach their ceilings and whether than will be enough. I'm going to do this by finding a player that our guy compares to and explore the win shares it will take to turn us into a playoff caliber roster.

Are win shares accurate, though?

Interesting question. I am utilizing Basketball Reference to find my win share totals hoping to see a correlation. When I added up the win shares of the New Orleans Pelicans, the 8th seed in the West, they totaled 44.0, and the record was 45-37. The Golden State Warriors totaled 66.8 win shares, and their record was 67-15. Our Denver Nuggets totaled 32.3 win shares and the final record was 30-52. It's not an exact science, but it's a solid gauge for where we need to end up personnel wise.

I'm going to use 8 seeds in the West as the barometer. The Pelicans made the playoffs this past season at 45 wins. The Mavericks (48.3 win shares) made it with 49 wins. The Rockets (49.9) made it with 45 wins. Adding those together and dividing by 3 equals 47.4 win shares. That is where I will set the bar for a playoff berth for the Nuggets. Once we accumulate 47.4 win shares as a roster, I will consider us a playoff caliber team. When can we expect that number?

To answer that question, I'm going to go through our young players and compare them to the most likely player whose career path they will mirror. This will give a general timeline for how soon our players will turn potential into production. Let's start with the easiest comparison:

Emmanuel Mudiay - John Wall

It's too easy. The capabilities, athletic similarities, and situations mirror the two players. Let's see how Wall progressed.

The big jump here is obvious. There is a steady trend of improvement for the first three years until year four. Wall jumps 3.4 win shares from year three to year four, and the Wizards' record jumps 15 wins as well. Wall was obviously a big part of this increase, and I show the team record here to truly express how his jump made all the difference for this franchise. We can expect a similar timeline for Mudiay, steady improvement for awhile, then a big jump around year four.

Jusuf Nurkic - Marc Gasol

While Marc Gasol is an all-star and this comparison seems unlikely to many, Gasol started at age 24, while Nurkic starts at age 20. The way that both players control the game defensively and utilize their passing and inside-out is very similar. Nurkic is much more raw, however, so my basis of comparison will be his 3rd season (age 22, 2016-17), compared with Gasol's 1st season (age 24, 2008-09). Two years in the league will bring Nurkic up to where Gasol was in his first season.

For the purposes of this exercise, 2008-09 of Gasol correlates to 2016-17 of Nurkic. Gaol has been very consistent in his competent play. He has never played less than 30 minutes per game in his career, and once Nurkic gets to that point, he will have a similar impact due to his physical tools and feel for the game. 6 win shares in his third season sounds a bit high for Nurkic, so I will subtract 1.0 win shares from each year to be more realistic. For 2015-16, I will estimate Nurkic at 3.0 win shares.

Nikola Jokic - Mehmet Okur

Being so young, I had to go back and watch some Okur highlights as I seen the comparisons but didn't truly know (don't think too badly of me!). I can say now that Okur looks like Jokic with a bit of Hessification. The offensive skill set, defensive positioning, and physical traits make for an apt comparison. Here are the numbers (I will use the first five seasons only).

His career path was very interesting. He was a part of two high quality Pistons teams (one winning the Finals with Chauncey as MVP), and then switched to Utah. They were bad for a year, then drafted Deron Williams who developed over the course of those years to form a great core in Utah with other various players. Okur became a full time starter in year four and had a monster season, so I think we can expect great things from Jokic in year four. Okur was a monster rebounder for awhile though, so I will temper the expectations on Jokic, who, while a good rebounder, and subtract 1.0 win shares from each of his totals to realistically mirror Jokic's path.

Joffrey Lauvergne - Nick Collison

A comparison used from the beginning, King Joffrey fits the role player mold. Nick Collison is a guy who has made a living as a guy who does the dirty work as a complimentary piece for his teammates. Let's take a look at his career path.

The quintessential role player, Collison stayed with an average of 4.06 win shares for his first five seasons over an average of 24.44 minutes per game during that span. If Joffrey gets this time, then I will be very surprised. I would cut each of those down by 1.0 win shares because I don't see him getting that time while Gallinari, Chandler, and Faried are taking big minutes. The career path fits Joffrey well, though.

Gary Harris - Gerald Henderson

Finding a comparison for Harris is difficult. Most pre-draft analysis had him as a safe pick, yet he was statistically one of the worst players in the league last year. Gerald Henderson had a similar entrance into the league out of Duke, shooting way below expectation in his first season and only suiting up for 43 games. He bounced back, though, so let's see where he ends up.

Gary Harris had -0.7 win shares this past year, so maybe this comparison doesn't even do it justice, but I have confidence that Harris can turn things around if given a good allotment of playing time under Mike Malone. I would say that Henderson is a good model for how he needs to bounce back (excluding the 7-59 season...re-estimated to 2.8), and he can definitely do that. Again, year four seems to be the time where it comes together. Expect a similar progression from Harris.

Will Barton - Corey Brewer

Again, a relatively easy comparison. Brewer didn't figure things out for awhile, and it wasn't until he was given a chance in Denver where he figured out how to be a competent role player. Barton is similar. He is a three year vet who is going to get his first real opportunity in year four. Let's see Brewer's stats:

Can we expect a similar jump from Barton? He is three years into his own career and has now found a new situation. The way these two players play is very similar, and I think the win share path makes a lot of sense.

I am not going to compare Erick Green or Kostas Papanikolaou because they aren't guaranteed to be on the roster this year. I think that both could be valuable, but it is just too unknown as to whether they will be here longterm, so I am omitting them.

***

Now the interesting part of the process begins. I'm going to add up the expected win shares of each of those players with each other. I will add to that number the average career win shares of Gallinari, Faried, Chandler, Nelson (who will be dumbed down due to minutes), and Arthur, who I believe will be on the team for the next three years or more (anything could change but they represent various veterans). This comes out to 17.28 win shares and will be the "veteran total." I will add to that an additional 2 win shares in 2016-17 and another 2 in 2017-18 to represent various veterans and rookies that will be added into the fold to fill out the roster. I will call this the natural addition column.

Here's how it comes out:

Again, I will state that this is not an exact science, more of a guesstimate using previous players, natural progression of young guys, and assuming that the core of the team doesn't change very much. If I had to guess how the next three seasons would go, I would say that we are in for a rough year in 2015-16. The guys are too young and need time to develop, and that's okay. The following year, 2016-17, will look much better, as the team will be approaching .500 and the young guys will start to look better.

If all things remain constant, though, 2017-18 is the target date for a return to playoff action. An estimated record of 50-32 should be enough to get into the playoffs as a 6th, 7th or 8th seed. Mudiay, Nurkic, and Jokic should develop into starting quality players on playoff quality teams, and guys like Harris, Barton, and Joffrey will be capable in the role player department. Add in the already capable veterans on the roster to go with potential pickups in free agency and the draft, and this team looks to be on the rise. That's my target date: 2017-18.

What say you Nuggets fans? Am I too early, too late, or right on the money? Let me know what you think!