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Well, another day of the offseason goes by, and this Nuggets team looks just a bit clearer. Erick Green's contract became partially guaranteed today, and that brings the roster to:
Guards
- Emmanuel Mudiay
- Jameer Nelson
- Erick Green (partially guaranteed)
- Randy Foye
- Will Barton
- Gary Harris
- Nick Johnson
- Danilo Gallinari
- Wilson Chandler
- Kostas Papanikolaou (non-guaranteed)
- Kenneth Faried
- JJ Hickson
- Joffrey Lauvergne
- Darrell Arthur (unsigned but likely)
Player By Player Tendencies
Emmanuel Mudiay
- Best with the ball in his hands. Handles the Pick and Roll well to get into the painted area.
- Currently shoots poorly but needs to shoot to develop. Utilizes cuts off ball.
- Works well with shooters to throw the ball to on the perimeter. Can dump to bigs in the paint.
- Handles the ball well. Pick and Roll is okay. Makes the right read most of the time.
- Can operate off ball. Shoots well off the dribble and spotting up.
- More perimeter based than paint based, unlike Mudiay.
- Best handles on the roster. Average Pick and Roll skills but good enough. Uses the mid range frequently.
- Good shooter off ball from the corners. Worse from the wings. Greatest skill is mid range pull-up.
- Reasonable facilitator but looks to score first. Shooting Guard in a slender 6'3 body.
- Most consistent perimeter threat on the team. 65% of FG attempts came from beyond the arc. Shot 38% from 2 pt which is Ricky Rubio bad.
- Shot 40% from the corner, but 35.7% from the entire 3 pt line. Should be used more frequently in corners.
- Can create for others at times with a career 18% assist rate, but not himself.
- Creates very well for himself in isolation. 57% of his 2 point makes were unassisted.
- Shot very well in the restricted area and from 16 feet to just inside the 3 point line (50% in that range with a relatively small sample size).
- Does not shoot well from beyond the arc. Will take open shots but not contested shots unless he's hot.
- A spot up shooter that cannot hit spot up shots. 90% of his 3 ball makes were assisted, but only made 20% total.
- Does well on cuts and that's honestly it. He can iso at times, but hasn't yet developed into the offensive threat he can be. If he gets on the court, it will be for his defense, combined with offensive potential.
- Has never shot a great percentage from the field but is still a complete package on offense.
- Consistent shooter from outside. Works from the perimeter on in, rather than inside out.
- Specializes in spot ups and can shoot over anyone at 6'10, but can Iso, run Pick and Roll, and post up.
- The Jack-of-all-Trades offensively, Chandler also specializes when he can catch and shoot.
- Positional versatility allows him to operate 2 through 4, but hangs out on perimeter.
- Should never Iso, but utilizing a pump fake and taking the ball to the paint is advised. Can finish over people.
- Mostly unknown, especially if he will be on the roster or not, but operates well with the ball in his hands.
- Elite secondary facilitator (8th in Assists/48 among SFs), and demonstrates great passing on dribble drives and out of the Pick and Roll.
- Can spot up from the perimeter as he showed with James Harden in Houston. Percentages were low but should receive a bump in the 2nd year.
- A huge question mark in creation. He wants to be a star, and will likely desire personal touches to prove it.
- Elite Pick and Roll Finisher and offensive rebounder. Needs to be around the rim to do so.
- Range has improved season by season, but minimally. Should look to step out to 18 feet consistently under Malone.
- Solid Pick and Roll finisher. Demonstrates little outside of that.
- Similar to Faried in everything else offensively, except at a lower level.
- While unsigned, Arthur represents the main 'stretch' candidate of the big guys outside of Jokic.
- Specializes in the pick and pop game. High percentage from in between 16 feet and the 3 point line. Very low percentage from distance.
- No ability to create for himself. Doesn't usually enter the paint on the offensive end but is an okay offensive rebounder.
- Very raw offensively. Demonstrated the ability to hit from distance in Summer League. Very slow release.
- Shows ability to create for himself a bit but not very efficiently. Makes some good moves but lack of finishing ability hurts.
- Pick and Roll and Pick and Pop big. Energy guy that can grab offensive rebounds at a reasonably high rate.
- Incredibly raw but physically imposing. Bullies people in the paint a lot to get position on all of his offensive possessions.
- Needs reps in the post, as a Pick and Roll big, and finding position for offensive rebounds. Should be featured in some facets offensively given his incredible defensive potential.
- Has range and can step out confidently to about 18 feet. Should be told to keep taking those shots with confidence.
- The most interesting offensive player on this roster. Close to 7 feet, hits outside shots, has great passing instincts.
- Blend of basketball IQ and unselfish nature should put him in position to facilitate offense.
- Good pick and pop option, as well as a guy who can spot up around the perimeter. Can create in the post a bit as well.
Conclusion
The players above all have certain tools necessary to be complimentary pieces on a roster, except for possibly Mudiay. Any offense utilized by this roster needs to put Mudiay in a position to create good looks for others. Him, Gallinari, and Nurkic should be the main offensive creators on the starting unit, while Nelson, one of Barton or Chandler, and Jokic should be the main creators on the second unit. Notice the positional similarities between those two groups? A point guard, small forward, and center (Jokic may end up being a power forward). Can we find an offense that focuses on those positions being facilitators, while the shooting guard and power forward become beneficiaries of created offense? Let's find out.
After piecing together some offenses and their principles, I decided that the best thing for this team would be something simple. This team should truly focus on getting stops on defense and then running hard in transition, but if pressed into a half court game, they need to fall back on something. An offense with simple reads, yet a ton of variations based off of what the defense does, seems like the best option for a team that's focus is to push the pace. If they aren't able to push it quickly enough, then they can settle into the HORNS offense. This is an offense based off screens on and off ball with quick and efficient movement from everyone. For a more detailed look at the offense, check out this site:
The Nuggets show a proper HORNS Set
As can be seen above, the Nuggets are running the HORNS set. Usually, the Point Guard runs this offense from the point of the horn (get it?), while the two bigs stand at the elbows and the two wings stay in the corners. High pick and rolls are the main focus here, but down screens to free up the wings and cross court passes from Mudiay could free up those shooters, namely Gallinari and Foye, for open shots.
There are also variations to this set. Last year, the Nuggets chose to run the set "inverted" with the wings and bigs switching spots on the floor. This generated a couple of easy hook shots for Faried off of cuts, and it also created contested looks that he shot anyway. I will link it here since I'm having trouble embedding the video.
Nuggets run Inverted HORNS Set
In this last HORNS image, I will direct your attention to the numbers representing the positions on the court.
The positions in HORNS aren't set in stone
Image Source: Fast Model Sports
This particular image represents Mudiay, Gallinari, and Nurkic or Jokic all clustered together on the floor. Each of those guys has the ability to make a quick decision when faced with either an open shot or an open man. They can see cutters like Harris, Barton, Faried, Chandler, etc. and make the correct pass. This provides plenty of space for the potential cut and a passing lane, creating offense for the guys who need it.
Overall, the HORNS Set is a simple offense that provides a multitude of options for players that struggle to create for themselves. From double screens at the top of the key, to side pick and rolls involving a wing (Gallo or Foye) and a big (Faried or Nurkic), to the occasional post up entry into the low or high post that should be used as both a passing option and scoring option rather than one or the other. The only player that truly needs to be able to initiate offense is the point guard, and we have a ready made option in Emmanuel Mudiay. We also wouldn't see a large drop off in offensive production by using this set because Jameer Nelson is capable of utilizing these sets to generate looks for himself and others.
I did the breakdown of the above players to show the we don't truly have an other-worldly threat offensively, but this offense would be a great option since it focuses on the main facilitator, while the other players are equally important in making the offense work. It can account for less than stellar shooting, while highlighting the use of spacing when attacking the paint repeatedly with pick and rolls or cuts. Gary Harris and Kenneth Faried would not be shunned away in this offense and would instead be welcomed if they were able to make the right movements, set solid screens, and repeatedly attack, attack, attack.
What say you, Stiffs? Care to weigh in on how we should run offense in the Mile High City?
