Everyone knows about the Big Market Teams: The New York Knicks, The Los Angeles Lakers, The Chicago Bulls, etc. These teams represent the three largest cities in the United States, and they also have a reputation for fielding very competitive teams (the current Knicks notwithstanding). Here are the top ten cities based on population:
1. New York
2. Los Angeles
3. Chicago
4. Houston
5. Philadelphia
6. Phoenix
7. San Antonio
8. San Diego
9. Dallas
10. San Jose
Eight of those cities house an NBA franchise or multiple, and since 1985 (30 years), one of those cities has captured a championship 22 times. The 8 times that a large market did not win were by Boston (1986, 2008), Detroit (1989, 1990, 2004), and Miami (2006, 2012, 2013). There is not a lot of parity in the NBA, even though this year we will likely have a champion that hasn't won in the past 30 years if Houston loses to Golden State.
So, how does this help the Nuggets find a way to bring a championship to the Mile High City? I'm going to break down the three smaller market teams that have won the Larry O'Brien Trophy in each of those seasons to gather trends that can help smaller market teams understand what must be done. Here it goes.
Boston
1986 - Larry Bird's best season. MVP. All-NBA 1st team. Basically averaged 25 points and 10 rebounds as a small forward. He was surrounded by great defenders in Kevin McHale and Dennis Johnson who both won All-NBA Defensive Team honors. Bill Walton also came off the bench and won 6th man of the year.
This team is very easy to understand. An MVP caliber player, a 20 ppg secondary scorer in Robert Parish, and high caliber defenders surrounding them.
2008 - Oh...more superstars. The Celtics already had Paul Pierce in tow, and decided to trade for perennial all stars Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Noble names that they traded away were Jeff Green (was 5th overall pick that year), Al Jefferson, Gerald Green...and that's basically it. They fleeced the T'Wolves and Sonics, setting themselves up for the first "Big Three" of many in recent years. Each of those players put up at least 17 PPG, while meaningful contributions from a young Rajon Rondo, Sam Cassell and Kendrick Perkins helped guide the team to another championship.
Each of the big three played in the All-Star game, Garnett was named the defensive player of the year, and both Pierce and Garnett were named to all NBA teams. So far, a common trend of defense is showing.
Detroit
1989- The Detroit Bad Boys will always be known for their defense, but interesting, they had some incredibly talented offensive players on this squad. Adrian Dantley was on the squad and averaged 18.4 PPG before being traded for Mark Aguirre, who put up 15.5 himself. Joe Dumars averaged 17.2 PPG while shooting an astounding 48.3% from distance. The leader, Isiah Thomas averaged 18 points and 8 assists for the team.
But then again, everyone remembers the stifling defense. Joe Dumars and Dennis Rodman won All-Defensive Team honors, and Rodman did so in just 27 minutes per game. They competed in games by getting physical and challenging every shot attempt, and won a championship with quality play from every position, with five players in the starting lineup averaging at least 13 PPG. Balance and heart won them a championship that year.
1990- This year was more of the same for the Pistons. A great defensive mentality, balanced scoring offensively, and a physical style guided Detroit back to the Finals. In the playoffs, Isiah Thomas blossomed into a star though, creating many of the points by himself through his averages of 20 points and 8 assists. He won Finals MVP, Rodman won defensive player of the year, Dumars was All-NBA third team, and both Rodman and Dumars were on the All Defensive First Team.
More of the same, defense and a leader offensively with sound offensive role players looks to be the trend.
2004-Ah...the no stars team. Lead by Colorado's own Chauncey Billups, the Pistons suffocated teams defensively to the tune of 84.3 PPG...total. Amazingly, only one Piston was recognized for his defensive efforts, Ben Wallace with 12.4 Rebounds per game and 3.0 Blocks per game, on the way to a championship season. This team was the definition of teamwork, as they obviously combined for great defensive work, but offensively, they had 7 players score 9.5 PPG or better on the opposing end, with the leading scorer being SG Rip Hamilton.
Again, another team that just played hard and played the right way. They weren't the best team in the league that year, but they were the best defensively and didn't rely on one person to score. Defense still remains the predominant trait that all these teams possess.
Miami
2006- This was the year Dwayne Wade truly broke out. With Shaquille O'Neil in tow as well, the Heat had an incredibly dynamic duo. Wade averaged over 27 PPG on nearly 50% as a SG, while Shaq chipped in 20 PPG and 9 RPG. Surrounded by role players from a toned down Jason Williams to veterans Gary Payton and Alonzo Mourning, the Heat rode their two stars all the way to a Finals victory. Shaq and Wade made the All-NBA first team and second team respectively.
This is the first championship team that didn't have any standout defenders, but they had two guys that combined for 47 PPG and a bunch of standout role players that played both sides of the ball adequately. I feel that this team is an anomaly because they played the Mavericks who were forced to guard Wade with Jason Terry due to matchup problems. Wade averaged nearly 35 PPG during the series and basically went bananas.
The trend of strong defense breaks here, but the caveat is two superstars will alleviate that.
2012- One year after LeBron came to South Beach and lost to Dallas in the Finals, he returned with Wade and Bosh, demolishing Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden in five games. This may have been a better series if Scott Brooks had used Durant at the 4 and Ibaka at the 5, but hindsight is 20/20.
This was the year LeBron wouldn't be denied. Averaging 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists per game while playing all-world defense, he lead the Heat to the title with his Robin in Dwayne Wade, who only played in 49 games (out of 65 due to lockout season). Wade averaged 22 PPG, while Chris Bosh averaged 18 PPG. Similarly to Boston's Big 3, this was a Bigger 3, with a combined 67 points between the three players. James would be the MVP, on the All-NBA first team, and the All-defensive first team.
This team had it all: A top flight offense, a top flight defense (4th in opponent PPG), and the star power to be an NBA Champion. This may be the best small market championship team, competing with the 1986 Celtics for that one.
2013- Same song, same dance, just a more difficult path. The Heat had to battle through 7 games of the Spurs, the best passing team since the Early 2000's Sacramento Kings. The Heat were the first team to repeat since Jordan's Bulls due to having the best player in the world on their team again. The offensive firepower was just too great. The team shot almost 50% from the field, 40% from 3, and had the 5th best scoring output in the league, all while taking the least field goal attempts in the NBA. That's incredible.
James became more of a playmaker this season but still averaged 26.8 PPG, yet he chipped in 8 rebounds and 7 assists on a nightly basis. Wade added 21 PPG, while Bosh chipped in 16.6. The main difference in this team and the one the year before is Ray Allen and Shane Battier, two of the best role players in the NBA, complimenting the Big 3 incredibly well.
San Antonio may have been a challenge, but this team deserved to win given the amount of talent they had and how well the team was assembled. Offensively, they were efficient and made the most of their looks. On the other end they played sound team defense. LeBron collected another MVP, and the team meshed incredibly well.
Conclusion
Here are the top three trends that occurred to me throughout this process:
1. Defense is still the foundation, and having an anchor is very important.
2. Stars help, but the scoring load is always burdened by a primary and secondary scorer.
3. Draft the star, and bring the other guys in through free agency.
Every single team except the 2006 Heat team had All-Defensive team caliber players, and even they had an older Gary Payton. Finding guys that contribute on the defensive end should be priority number one for any team aspiring for a Ring.
While Larry Bird and LeBron James are nice to have, they are once in a generation type players and teams shouldn't be praying for the next big thing to fall into their laps (looking at you Philly). A team can win with lower scoring affairs if the defensive foundation is sound. Just ask Boston or Detroit.
Every player needs a bit of help, and Dwayne Wade has received a ton in his career. Shaq came as a free agent to South Beach, as did James and Bosh. These two separate occasions led to all three of Miami's titles, over 1/3 of small market championships over the last 30 years.
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The Formula for a Small Market Championship team:
-At least one star player that's drafted by the franchise
-At least one marquee player via free agency/trade that can score proficiently
-At least one NBA All-Defensive Player
-Several role players through the draft and free agency that have specific skills
-Team Defense mentality
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So how does this apply to the Nuggets? How many boxes can we check off? Will we be able to check any off in the future? At the draft?
I believe the Nuggets can check one of those five categories off, and it's the second one involving a marquee player that can score. Danilo Gallinari showed at the end of the season how deadly he can be, scoring 40 points on two occasions over a two week span. He can be a great secondary scorer and adequate to good defender.
I also believe that in the next two years, we may have our All-Defensive player in Jusuf Nurkic. He has shown great capability to patrol the paint and instill fear into the hearts of mortal guards and forwards in this league. He has the attitude necessary to achieve that goal as well.
The real question is the first category, a star that's homegrown who can attract quality free agents to Denver. We thought it would be a shared role by Kenneth Faried and Ty Lawson, but they have failed to live up to the expectations set for them to be quality players and quality people. They will be traded sooner than later, and hopefully add to the potential number of picks in this year's draft.
The real question is can we draft a star who's capable of lifting the team to great heights and causing free agents to desire Denver? We won't know that answer until June 25th, but until then, there are things we can do put checks in the checkbox:
Clear up the bench and figure out which guys fit which roles on this team. Find a coach that is willing to focus his efforts on the defensive end and figure out the offensive end a a different time. Do whatever needs to be done to clear the way for a star to come to Denver via the draft, and for goodness sake, don't draft a guy because of his high floor. Swing for the fences Tim Connelly. Draft the next Dwayne Wade. Every marquee free agent has wanted to share the spotlight with him in Miami. Bring that kind of guy to Denver so it can be our turn for the spotlight.