As yet another disappointing Nuggets season is coming to a close, it's time to look to the future. Well, it's been time to look to the future since about November, but with the offseason looming, let's talk real, concrete things our Nuggets need to be looking to accomplish this offseason. This is, obviously, all my own opinion based on the countless hours I've spent watching NBA basketball, my own personal evaluation of players, and my personal philosophy of what makes an NBA franchise successful. Please, feel free to disagree with any or all of it in the comments. The Denver Nuggets have a plethora of possible roads to take moving forward, and any of them may end up being the most successful. I would absolutely love to have constructive, realistic, and factual conversations with the great basketball minded Stiffs about all the possibilities for the future of Nuggets basketball.
But without further ado, I present to you the NuggetsGonnaNugg three phase offseason fix-the-Nuggets checklist.
Phase 1: Hire a coach
This is the first, and most important decision the Nuggets must make this offseason. The impact the head coach can have, positively or negatively, is probably the most underrated aspect of NBA basketball. Good coaches get maximum efficiency and productivity out of whatever rosters your throw in front of them. Guys like Rick Carlisle and Gregg Popovich have found astounding success over the course of their careers with entirely different roster makeups. This is the type of coach you want.
NBA teams, like pretty much all professional teams, are notorious for endlessly recycling unsuccessful coaches across different organizations over and over again. These are generally considered safer hires, as you know exactly what to expect from guys that have coached at this level before. The other side of that coin, however, is that generally these guys are unemployed for a reason, so knowing exactly what to expect isn't necessarily a positive. If you tell me that I'm about to get kicked in the crotch before it happens, that doesn't make the crotch-kicking experience any easier for me (I call this "The Mark Jackson Analogy"). Fans often clamor for a "proven, well-known head coach," which is a perfectly logical desire. The problem is that all successful and well-known coaches are currently employed by NBA teams. There are exceptions and the success of a a coach's tenure can be affected by several factors outside his control, but I go back to my earlier point - great coaches get above-average production out of their rosters. They overachieve. At some point, all of the available "proven guys" didn't do this in the eyes of their bosses. I'm not trying to argue that the Nuggets should absolutely stay away from former NBA head coaches, I just think it's a bad idea to limit yourself to a candidate pool that has already shown it is flawed.
As the Nuggets conduct their search for their next coach, in my opinion, here's what they need to be looking for:
1. A basketball junkie. Eats, sleeps, and breathes the game.
2. Philosophically in-line with the current model of successful NBA basketball. This means ball movement, player movement, pick and rolls, and spreading the floor.
3. The ability to grow and adapt to different philosophical trends over time, as well as the ever-changing nature of an NBA roster. Adaptability might be the single most important trait a coach needs in order to be great.
4. A willingness to embrace the style of basketball that Denver wants to play. This means aggressive defense, pushing tempo, and always looking for fast break opportunities (note: This does NOT mean I don't value the half court. But good half court NBA basketball is more about employing the right philosophy and putting smart players on the court who can execute it on the fly).
5. Likable and personable, both to the players and to the media/fans. This is less important than the other 4, but holy cow I don't think I can handle another coach with as grating of a personality as Shaw's was. Please Nuggets, give me someone who's easy to root for.
If the Nuggets can find a guy who fits all of these criteria, I don't care if he's an NBA hall of fame coach or if he's currently working at Home Depot, that's the guy I want. No small task, but this is one of the 30 best basketball coaching jobs in the entire world. There are so many great coaches out there at so many levels waiting for a shot. Let's find the right guy regardless of where he is. Swing for the fences, Nuggets. Hitting for contact is not how you win NBA championships.
Phase 2: Roster management
The Nuggets roster, as is currently constructed, is a complete mess. There's redundancy, lack of positional balance, and seemingly, a lack of any kind of roster building philosophy. Also, there's entirely too much JJ Hickson. There needs to be an overhaul of some kind. Personally, I think blowing it all up is a bad idea. I believe, with a few tweaks, this roster can be versatile, efficient, and successful. There's talent all over the place, the Nuggets just need to fill in the gaps and cut some dead weight. So here's what I'd have them do.
1. Aggressively shop Faried. I love Kenneth as much as I've ever loved any Nuggets player. He's a great ambassador for the Nuggets, a very good person, and when he's engaged, his unmatched work rate is a joy to watch. But with how the NBA is played at present, having two guys on the floor with no shooting range to speak of is akin to boxing with one arm tied behind your back. It's still schematically possible to get good floor spacing, but it makes it much more difficult. And it's hard to justify the offensive efficiency setback for a guy who is, at best, below average defensively. If somehow he can improve his defensive awareness so that he's at least a neutral on that end of the floor, he could be an asset off the bench paired with Jokic or as the 5 in small lineups. But if the Nuggets can get any kind of decent package of picks and young players/expiring contracts for him, they need to do it.
2. Keep Lawson unless someone blows your socks off with an offer (looking at you, George). Ty is a perfect fit for what Denver wants to accomplish offensively. His size is an issue on defense, especially when he's next to fellow vertically-challenged guard Randy Foye, but he is a good, sometimes great, occasionally elite PG running a system that suits him on a team friendly deal. No reason to just dump him.
3. Draft Super Mario. Love his potential, love his stroke, love his nickname. Easy decision in my book.
4. Get JJ Hickson as far away from Denver as possible. Trade him for a gift card to Foot Locker. Ditch him at an iHop. Convince him to become an isolationist monk. I don't care what it takes, get rid of him.
5. Make a hard run at signing Paul Millsap. He'd be a fool to leave Atlanta and it's beyond unlikely that he'd choose Denver even if he does leave, but he'd be perfect for Denver at the 4. Signing him is a pipe dream but you might as well give it a go.
6. Retain Jameer, Barton, and Chandler. Foye too at the right price. Chandler is versatile, has range, can get to the rim, and is a good defender. Barton is an improving player who is a perfect bench guy for Denver. Jameer and Foye are solid veteran guys who can fill important roles.
7. Bring over Jokic to play the backup 5.
8. Fill out the end of the bench with high BBIQ guys who have skill. I'd be fine with keeping Arthur and Green if it makes sense.
This leaves us with something along the lines of:
Starters:
Ty
Mario (Foye if Mario is completely not ready at all)
Chandler
Gallo
Nurkic
Bench:
Jameer
Barton
Foye (Harris if he improves)
Joffrey
Jokic
Arthur
Harris
Green
That starting 5, in the right system, would destroy teams on both ends of the floor. Shooters, creators, size, and length. Pretty much all you need in today's NBA. Ideally we keep one of Gallo and Chandler on the floor at all times. The bench has a variety of different types of players with different skill sets who you could plug in on different nights depending on what the Nuggets need (ala the Spurs). Primary bench guys would probably be Jameer, Barton, Joffrey, and Jokic with Gallo or Chandler always being on the court with them. Arthur, Foye, and Harris provide useful skills when needed and are serviceable guys who can play heavier minutes if/when guys get hurt. Adding wing and Center depth would also be necessary.
Put the right coach in charge running the right philosophy and that's, in my opinion, a borderline playoff team. There's potential for beautiful, team oriented basketball on offense, as well as sneaky good defense with creative application of the roster's length and versatility. The Nuggets retain quite a bit of youth and potential with a good mix of guys who are still getting better, guys entering their prime, and intelligent vets. Rim protection when Nurkic isn't on the floor would be a concern, but that seems to be pretty much unavoidable at this point. I would love this roster and while making the playoffs in the West is far from easy, I'd have a hard time believing that this team wouldn't be in the hunt. It's certainly possible that my Nuggets fanhood is causing significant bias (wouldn't be the first time), but even if I'm wrong, it wouldn't take much to shift gears and blow it all up to build around Mario and Juka. Flexibility is another benefit to the roster as currently constructed.
Note: I didn't offer any potential Faried trade possibilities, so I'm not going to speculate on their affect on Denver's rotations. Ideally, the Nuggets would be receiving similar players to the one's they're sending out, so they would slot in somewhere just fine.
Stage 3: A Complete Rebranding of Nuggets Basketball
Look, I absolutely love the current color scheme, logo, and court layout of the Denver Nuggets. In my opinion, their overall "look" is among the best in all of professional sports (dem yellow alternates). But it's an entirely new era of Nuggets basketball. New GM, new owner, new coach, almost an entirely new roster. It's time for a tangible, visible change to illustrate that the Nuggets are moving forward as an organization. The current powder blue and yellows will always be special to Nuggets nation, full of fond memories. But they also serve as a reminder of the costly mistakes the current regime made in its infancy. They've bounced back very well since those first few weeks, in my opinion, and I think it's time that they put their own stamp on the look and feel of Nuggets basketball. New uniforms, new logo, new color scheme, new court design, new arena music, new graphics on the big screen. Let's turn the page as a fanbase and an organization, stop lamenting over past misfortune, and get excited about the future. Because in my opinion, there's plenty to be excited about.
One thing's for sure, this offseason is going to be a very interesting one. Can't wait to see how things play out. Go Nuggets.
