As a relative newcomer (3 ½ years) to Denver I don’t/won’t pretend to share a deep knowledge of the Nuggets history nor have I been scarred by any front office ineptitude or tough losses inflicted during the last 30 years and if any of the Stiffs regulars want to tune me out now for not paying my dues I have no problem with that
However….
I love basketball, I have come to love Denver, and I didn’t arrive with a strong affiliation to any other NBA team so it looks like me and the Nuggets have become a thing. That being said, there are some things I want out of my new favorite team, nothing crazy, just an entertaining team with an identity and a recognizable plan to compete for a championship.
I don’t think I’m alone here but…
It’s easier said than done which is why with the trade deadline fast approaching I want to put this out there now. For whichever Nuggets employee is tasked with reading fan blogs and posts please consider this a customer survey with some highly specific recommendations that with any luck other Stiffs readers will either endorse or modify because right now we are stuck and the only reason I currently watch a Nuggets game is the Nurk.
As a mid market city located hours from anywhere else that elite free agents won’t even answer the phone for (yes, I know some dispute this but until the Nuggets at least get a visit from one then it is by definition true) then Denver is going to need two things above all else, a hyper competent front office and an identifiable style of play that will allow us to draft or recruit a specific type of player that will work as part of our particular team concept. I will be more specific about that second point in a bit but first lets do a quick scan of our big three in management
Josh Kroenke – The one guy you can’t fire but who ultimately decides everything. Nuggets fans are at his mercy. The thing that jumps out at me is that while, depending on how you add it up, Denver is somewhere between the 17th and 20th largest market in the NBA it was the 8th most profitable franchise last year. That is strong evidence of competence, at least on the business side, which is important. It means the Nuggets probably won’t have to make panic trades etc. based solely on financial reasons. It also means that Josh is pretty good at minimizing costs and maximizing revenues, although I hope it isn’t the only concern when hiring important staff like trainers and coaches.
Tim Connelly – I don’t love his New Orleans tenure (which is on Dell Demps) and he certainly has taken some heat regarding his grounding in the salary cap (there is that support personnel issue, maybe) but he has made three moves that put me firmly in his corner
1. Trading our pick last draft for what became Nurkic and Harris. I think in a perfect world the Nugs were hoping it would be James Young who fell to the 19th pick so maybe this didn’t work out perfectly but if Harris turns into something usable it’s a slam dunk and a worthwhile risk to have taken. There isn’t a player taken between McDermott and Nurkic that I would rather have than Nurk so, well-played Tim, well played.
2. Getting two 1sts for Mozgov. Taking advantage of desperate teams is high on the list of NBA GM responsibilities and requires you to have a pair so that’s nice to have found out with having to ask him to cough
3. Not giving up any real assets for Brook Lopez or Reggie Jackson. This is related to item number 2 but in reverse. Also it gives me hope because I don’t see either as a long term fit. I love the idea of Lopez as someone who can take pressure off of Nurkic but not as part of the team’s coming glory days. Reggie Jackson? No, thank you.
Brian Shaw – This post is all about advocating patience with a definitive long term plan that allows you to minimize do over transactions and Shaw has been dealt a bad hand in terms of injuries and roster fit but I think it may be deeper than that. I simply have no clue what his plan is to win games and he keeps having clashes with players. Maybe he is not far enough removed from his playing days. He and Andre Miller competed against each other regularly on the court so maybe there was already a tension there. I don’t know but this isn’t working and my plan calls for a strong coach with an in place philosophy. Flexibility has to be part of that philosophy but not nightly reinvention. Players won’t improve if you don’t give them a road map.
In short, I think that 2/3 of this front office has what it takes to compete for a title and I have a suggestion regarding the other 1/3 but we’ll get to that.
So what is this philosophy and what kind of Player should we target?
It’s really about what traits/skills/abilities I believe lead to winning games if not necessarily filling up box scores
Shooting – if you can shoot then your defender has to follow you which opens up any manner of offenses because you dictate where the defense has to go. See Hawks, Atlanta.
Size – It is harder (and more tiring) to score if you have to shoot over or go around a large body. Conversely it is much easier to get a clean look if you are taller than your opponent or strong enough to knock them off balance. See Engineering, Mechanical
The ability to understand and play team defense - You don’t have to be a lock down defender but you can’t be the cup bearer to another man’s fame and glory. See Power Forwards, 2015 Denver Nuggets
Point Guards and Centers should not be your leading scorer – This is a little trickier to explain. The names of positions are just short hand for roles on a court. The PG and C are one back court and one front court player who to me should ideally be a threat to score but really should function more as hubs or decision points, one outside the arc and the other at the posts, so passing, court vision, and basketball IQ are essential here. Additionally, on the other end you need that PG to chase through picks and the C to provide rim protection. That is a lot to ask. Let a wing or PF be your primary scorer through the first 40 minutes. Nurkic is a nice fit for that C role. Strong like bull, hands like shortstop. This is really requires much a longer explanation but I think this audience is such that they get it even if they don’t agree with it
The best-case scenario is to acquire young players on their rookie contract, develop them, and if they pan out sign them to an extension for good but non-max money.
This is a six year project, seriously. The team needs to develop as a core together and while each member of the core’s prime doesn’t have to coincide it needs to at least overlap. See Grizzlies, Memphis 2015 or Spurs, San Antonio for the last twenty damn years.
So that was the (long winded?) setup. Here is the fun part where I play fantasy GM.
Keep in mind that this is for demonstrative purpose only.
Some guiding principles
I don’t have personal relationships with any GMs or inside intel on certain players so Connelly may look at these and go "no way Allesandro bites on that" or "Jordan will take a lot less than that" or "Player X is a spoiled brat" but these are examples of the kind of deal that moves toward acquiring core players that fit a long term team concept that seem to me realistic in that each team gets a need filled
There are only two players on the Nuggets roster now that I see having a role three or four years from now, Nurkic and maybe Gallinari, so that makes everyone else tradable.
NO tanking, losing is a habit. Acquire players with the expectation of winning but understand that for the first couple of years that developing players and growing as a team is paramount. That isn’t tanking, you take the players you have and go try to win every night but you keep your eye on who fits long term and sometimes you take one step back to take two steps forward. That isn’t what Philly is doing. The Sixers took twenty steps back and are no closer than the Nuggets to a title.
Wilson Chandler is an honest to god real live NBA basketball player who can help a good team win now. Noah Vonleh is a project that may never pan out but size, shooting, and age make him more valuable to the Nuggets than Chandler. We aren’t winning anything with Chandler on the roster so let the disparity in current value go
All trades have been run through the ESPN Trade Machine and if you are wondering why a certain player is involved its because he is balancing salaries
The "Warm-up" Trade
DEN- Nick Stauskas
OKC - Wilson Chandler
SAC - Kendrick Perkins
There are legit concerns that Stauskas is a bust but he is a 6’6’’ shooter who remade himself from his freshman to sophomore year at Michigan and he seems to have a bit of arrogance, which I think makes him a nice fit with Nurkic. This is a lottery pick in a toxic situation. Buy low, develop and assess in two years
OKC has been attached to Chandler for months and Sacramento apparently wants a rim protector (don’t ask me what difference it will make) Williams is a make weight
The "Twitter is in Flames" Trade
DEN - Brook Lopez, Noah Vonleh
CHA - Joe Johnson
BKN - Javale McGee, Lance Stephenson, Marvin Williams, Darrel rthur
More than any player who has been rumored to be available, I want Noah Vonleh. Apparently Jordan wants Joe Johnson. The Nets unload two out of three of their max contracts in one shot and get Stephenson in return. Lopez has a function in Denver by letting Nurkic come off the bench for the next two years. This needs to happen.
The "Hornets Make the Second Round" Trade
DEN - Brook Lopez, Kemba Walker, Noah Vonleh, Jerome Jordan
CHA - Ty Lawson, Arron Aflfalo
BKN - Javale McGee, Lance Stephenson
I prefer Kemba to Ty (size, age, defense) for the future. The Hornets might decide the time is now to make a push and this would leave no doubt about making the playoffs. Nets only unload Lopez but they still get the Brooklyn born Stephenson.
The "Now I’m Just Showing Off" Trade
DEN - Noah Vonleh, Ben McLemore, Derrick William
OKC - Wilson Chandler, //Jeff Taylor
SAC - Kendrick Perkins, Arron Afflalo
CHA - Nick Stauskas, Ramon Sessions
I’m torn about McLemore, he is a better player than Stauskas right now and they are the same age but he seems soft but he has been in Sacramento the last two years but he is a better athlete than Stauskas but Stauskas is bigger and meaner but but but but
Anyway, I promised a suggestion about the coach. My first thought was that if he (likely) comes available this summer Tom Thibodeau would be amazing at what we are trying to do here, and he might be, but you would have to convince him to ease up on the players in the regular season, at least once the team was back in the playoffs. However I think Mike Malone deserves another shot. I know its a small sample size and lots of coaches start hot only to flame out but, good lord, he had Boogie Cousins playing not just hard but smart. Malone would be hungry and maybe both the Nuggets front office and Malone would have learned something from the last year. Just a thought.
If you made it this far then thanks for reading and Go Nuggets
