Emmanuel Mudiay is off to a struggling start

There's a very negative feeling on this site right now. This six game losing streak has been difficult for many here at Denver Stiffs. We were spoiled with two wins over a flailing Houston Rockets team, a couple of close victories over Milwaukee and Portland, while seeing many of our young players perform well in certain situations. At 6-5, we were looking pretty good. At 6-11, not so much.

At the beginning of the season, I predicted the Nuggets would finish in between 31 and 35 games. In a previous article, I used win shares to tabulate my guess, and due to the high number of rookies and the expectation that we would struggle because of youth, that sounds about right. I also predicted that the Nuggets would start the season slow at 10-25 after 35 games, and our current pace gets us to about 12-23, so I can't really say I'm surprised. What is surprising is that I know this team can play better due to the amazing moments and plays we have seen, especially from our young players, and not only do I think this team can turn things around at mid-season, I actually expect it.

Let's look at the numbers from our guys: minutes per game, RPM, win shares, and net rating (offensive minus defensive rating). All numbers will be taken from basketball reference and ESPN. Here we go:

Denver Nuggets Season through 17 games

I like to utilize minutes as a barometer because it shows exactly how much everyone has played, while the advanced stats next to these players make the case for whether they have earned those minutes or not. Here are my 5 biggest takeaways from this table:

#1: Emmanuel Mudiay has been awful, but so are his replacements

This should be blatantly obvious when looking at the table. Our three worst net ratings are as follows: Randy Foye (plays the 3rd PG) with a minus 32, Mudiay with a minus 27, and Jameer Nelson with a minus 21. This is the crux of our issue as a team. Everything starts with our Point Guards at both ends, and so far, they have been bad on both ends, Mudiay especially. The Point Guard needs to be a quality distributor on offense, getting into the lane effectively and A) Shooting an efficient shot or B) Finding a man in the paint to pass to or C) Finding a man on the perimeter for an open jumpshot. So far, Mudiay has struggled to find the difference between efficient and inefficient shots. His go-to moves have been a pull-up jumper or a leaning layup, and neither of those are very appealing, especially at the rate he's converting them.

Also, he has struggled to contain penetration on the defensive end, getting stuck on screens repeatedly and allowing his man to come around the screen to find an open lane. When the big man helps, his guy gets the bucket, and when the rotation happens, we see an open man on the perimeter, usually resulting in an uncontested 3 point shot. This all happens because Mudiay (or Nelson or whoever is on-the-ball) cannot effectively contain the play at the beginning and force the other team to attack a different way.

Overall, we can't lower Mudiay's minutes, and if we do, it should still be right around 28 minutes per game. This is two-fold, because on one hand, he needs the development and the experience due to being so raw coming from China, and on the other hand, our second and third options have been shit too, so we might as well just develop the kid.

#2: Danilo Gallinari is very tired

Over the course of the season, Gallo has had 30+ minutes in 15 of the 17 games, and his minutes per game and free throw attempts per game are the highest they have ever been. This means he is being more aggressive for longer periods of time, and as a result, along with a shooting slump, his FG% has tanked. His FG% was never very high to begin with throughout his career, but now it's visibly affecting him, especially throughout this 6 game losing streak.

The last time the Nuggets won also coincided with Gallo's best game, as he shot 12/19 and had 32 points to go with 8 rebounds and 8 assists. It's safe to say early in the season that in the current state of things, the Nuggets will go as far as Gallo plays well, specifically shoots efficiently, because in the last 6 losses, his field goal percentages all have 2's and 3's in front of them, and that's just not going to cut it. Malone needs to find a way to get his best player more rest, and obviously that's hard to do with many of the players also performing poorly.

Gallo does lead the team in win shares though, and his RPM is second only to the player I will talk about next, so that means he's doing other things offensively (and even defensively) that warrant praise. He's averaging the 2nd most rebounds on the team and recently showed that he may be the best player on the team to guard Steph Curry, but that fact remains that Gallo is tired and he's not going to perform any better until he gets some rest.

#3: Will Barton is a 6th man of the year candidate and the most improved Denver Nugget

Wow. Talk about a positive for the squad. Will Barton has been as pleasant a surprise as I have seen on this team in awhile. Take a look at this table:

Player A is Will Barton if you hadn't already guessed. Player B is Arron Afflalo during his 53 games in Denver last year. What a trade Tim Connelly made. None of those totals above are Per 36 minutes or Per 100 possessions or anything like that. Will Barton has been more efficient, given better effort, and averages better numbers than Afflalo in every category except points, all in 6.4 minutes less per game. He's also younger, cheaper, and we also got a lottery protected first from Portland, though that pick will likely turn into two second rounders unfortunately due to PDK not being very good either.

Barton has averaged a high number of minutes in his first full season in Denver, but they are all warranted, and it's blatantly obvious that we have a player here who could stay in Denver long term. He has been all we could ask for and more, and I bet he gets a few starts by the end of the year.

#4: The Other Young Guys should continue to play even when Nurkic comes back healthy

Mudiay, Harris, Jokic, and Nurkic are all 21 years old or younger. Joffrey is 24. Barton and Papa are 25. It's important to get these guys minutes, even Papanikolaou, because they affect the future of this squad. Harris is shooting 43.8% from beyond the arc. Someone tell him to shoot it even more and someone tell Mudiay and Gallo find him even more. Joffrey and Jokic both have PER's above 20. Mudiay has the ceiling of a superstar, and while Nurkic hasn't logged a minute yet, he's shown that he will back down to no mortal offensively or defensively.

As a 6-11 team, it's important to know when to let the young guys play and when to use veterans as teachers. Currently, Faried, Nelson, Arthur, Foye, and Hickson average more minutes than Nikola Jokic, and I believe only Faried and Hickson have earned that right. Nelson, Arthur, and Foye have been putrid on most nights, and while Arthur has started to play better of late, I would still prefer our two young guys to absorb more of those minutes. When Faried and Joffrey become fully healthy, I think Hickson will go to the bench even though he shouldn't statistically, and I think Jokic will also have his minutes lowered. I don't agree with it, but Malone values Darrell Arthur, and Randy Foye certainly isn't leaving the rotation, meaning Gallo will play some minutes at the 4 due to Barton playing the 3.

When Nurkic comes back, we need to see a move made to clear up the front court minutes a bit. Both Arthur and Hickson should be candidates to be moved, and to a lesser extent Faried. Joffrey and Jokic deserve consistent time, and it makes more sense for the future of the team to give them that time.

#5: We are what our record and players say we are

At 6-11, many are disappointed by the results, but the fact of the matter is, the players have earned that record. Playing Mudiay, Nelson, and Foye has statically accounted for -1.8 wins, and Gallo has accounted for exactly the opposite of that. Our team has a collective 6.3 win shares, which reflects on our record for sure. This is a good thing because the main culprits for our losing ways will either improve (Mudiay) or be eradicated from the rotation by younger players at some point (Nelson, Foye, Arthur). As it stands now, though, the current rotation and minute distribution will stay on this trend for the entire 82 games, which extrapolates to 29-53.

If we make changes, though, that total should definitely go up.

The Nurkic Factor

Jusuf Nurkic was the team's best center last year, showcasing the ability to be a game changer on the defensive end while adequate on the offensive end. His potential for growth is exponential after last year, as he averaged almost 7 points and over 6 rebounds in just 17.8 minutes. By adding that production into the starting rotation and removing Darrell Arthur, the Nuggets would have the four guys most likely to be with the team long term playing a good allotment of minutes (over 16 per game). I expect him to add about 2 win shares worth of wins to our total.

Upgrading the Backcourt

This one is pretty tricky because we have a guy in Mudiay that needs to learn on the job, and we also Gary Harris playing very well, so there's no reason to take him out. Will Barton is a wing, and while I think he would play very well at the 2, Malone seems to like going small and using him at the 3 in a three guard rotation with Nelson and Foye. Whether this is the product of the Chandler injury or the fact that Malone thinks Foye is a better option than Kostas Papanikolaou doesn't truly matter. The fact is that Foye and Nelson are playing too much, and a move SHOULD be made to improve the situation. The difficult part is finding available players that could be considered upgrades. Here are three that we could make a move for:

Trade A: Darrell Arthur and Jameer Nelson plus a 2nd rounder to Phoenix for Ronnie Price and Mirza Teletovic

Phoenix does this deal because they need defenders in their front court, and the combination of Arthur and Alex Len off the bench would be a smart pairing to form a high-low on the interior.

Trade B: JJ Hickson to Milwaukee for Grevis Vasquez or Darrell Arthur for Tyler Ennis and a future 2nd

Milwaukee needs to open up more time for 1st round pick Rashad Vaughn, and I doubt Jerryd Bayless or OJ Mayo are available (though both would be an upgrade over our two incumbents). Vasquez is a 6'6 Combo Guard who does well with the ball in his hands. He's a distributor, but also has a penchant to throw up shots like Jameer Nelson. He's currently being misused by Milwaukee, and Denver would give an an opportunity to create for others (if we gave him the keys).

Also, Tyler Ennis is a solid player that has just been buried behind a ton of vets there. He's a great candidate to be a third PG here and has potential. He would be an interesting project at only 21 years old.

Trade C: Darrell Arthur and Randy Foye to Brooklyn for Jarrett Jack

This move for Brooklyn is to acquire a better defensive player and to open up more cap space for free agents next year. Believe it or not, the Nets will have a fair degree of space to play around with, and trading Jack would provide them an extra degree of it. With Mike Conley, Rajon Rondo (who looks fresh), Jordan Clarkson, and Brandon Jennings as potential free agents, the Nets might think that route looks better, especially with no draft pick next year anyway. Jarrett Jack has backed up many great young PGs in his career, and he would teach Mudiay a lot about the nuances of the game.

Conclusion

Overall, the Nuggets have the ability to improve their play through internal and external changes. The internal piece speaks to the return of Nurkic and the likely realignment of minutes to make more time for our young bigs and less time for Randy Foye and Darrell Arthur. Externally, the Nuggets could look to make a trade for some talent in the backcourt.

If they don't make any changes, then it could be a long season. As has been said in the game threads of late, this team is soft, and if the mindset and mentality does not change, then the development of our young players could be stunted. We need a new voice and presence in the locker room. Hopefully that guy is Jusuf Nurkic.

I see this team being very successful down the line, but that doesn't mean we cannot win little battles along the way. Let's keep using the young players and focus on attitude and effort. If we get those two things on a consistent basis, then is anyone going to be mad? Didn't think so.

Go Nuggets.