Las Vegas set the over under on the Nuggets win total at 26 games for the 2015-2016 season. If you happened to be in Vegas before the start of the season, and put your faith in the Nuggets, you’re feeling pretty good. For Nuggets fans though, their team’s better-than-anticipated start to should instill some anxiety for the future for three reasons.
One, the Knicks are Average
The Knicks look somewhat competent this season for the first time since the 2012. If the season ended today, the Knicks would find themselves a half game back from the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Yet, their remaining opponents have a combined .500 record, and in the 2014-2015 season, 3 teams in the East made the playoffs with .500 records or worse. The Knicks must love where they sit early in the season, but Nuggets fans should be nervous.
In the 2016 NBA draft, the Nuggets have a slew of possible 1st round picks. Great, right? Well, not quite. Only one of those picks is unprotected, and it’s our pick arising from our arrangement with the Knicks due to the Carmelo Anthony trade. The agreement stipulates that the Nuggets may call the Knicks pick in the 1st round in exchange for the Nuggets 1st round pick. The way the Knicks and the Nuggets are playing though, it’s very unlikely this results in a lottery pick.
Among the other first round picks the Nuggets have rights to, the Grizzlies 1st round pick is the most promising. However, this pick is protected. The Nuggets only have rights to this pick in 2016 if it falls within selection 6 and 14 of the draft. If it doesn’t, which it won’t if the Grizzlies make the playoffs, then the Nuggets rights to the pick are deferred to the next year2. Unfortunately, the Grizzlies have made the playoffs every year since 2011, and don’t appear to be slowing down. Additionally, a similar protection scheme applies in 2017 and 2018 with regards to this pick. It’s possible, this pick may be deferred until 2019, when it becomes unprotected.
While, both the Knicks and Grizzlies 1st round pick give the Nuggets a chance to score a Lottery pick in 2016, it seems unlikely. The more likely scenario leaves the Nuggets with their best pick being a mid-1st rounder: not a lot of star potential. It’s still early in the season, but if you’re a Nuggets fan, you may want to consider rooting for a few more losses. If not, consider sending some bad juju the Knicks and Grizzlies way.
Two, the Nuggets Eerily Resemble the 2003 Nuggets
At this stage in the season it’s impossible to predict the next ten years for the Nuggets. Yet, the start of this season is reminiscent of the start to the 2003-2004 season.
In 2002 and 2003, the Nuggets earned themselves a lottery pick in each draft. With the 7th pick in the 2002 draft, the Nuggets drafted a European player that never panned out. But, in the 2003 NBA draft the Nuggets drafted Carmelo Anthony with the 3rd pick. Nuggets fans rejoiced, they drafted a potential superstar. Similar to 2003, the Nuggets rolled into this season with a Lottery pick in the two preceding drafts. In 2014, the Nuggets drafted Doug McDermott with the 11th pick, then proceeded to trade for Gary Harris (who has shown potential as a role player). This year, the Nuggets picked Emmanuel Mudiay with the 7th pick. While the 2014 pick wasn’t a bust like the 2002 pick, neither resulted in NBA stars. The 2015 pick however, may become very similar to the 2003 pick. It is yet to be seen whether Mudiay will become one of the best at his position like Carmelo. Yet, Mudiay has shown promise, averaging 11.4 points and 6.4 assists per game; similar to Russell Westbrook who averaged 11.8 points and 3.1 assists per game through his first 12 starts.
In 2003, led by Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggets started the season modestly at 7-6, but finished 43-39, good enough to grab the eighth spot in the Western Conference Playoffs. This season, the Nuggets have started 6-6 against good competition. At this point in the season, it would not be surprising if the Nuggets grabbed the eighth spot in the Western Conference Playoffs: if the season ended today, the Nuggets would be in the playoffs as the eight seed.
Finally, 2 years after the 2003 season, the Nuggets made a coaching change to George Karl. Marked by turmoil, the Nuggets let go of Jeff Bzdelik prior to the 2005 season. This was his only head coaching position in the NBA. This season, the Nuggets have a new head coach, Mike Malone, with his only head coaching experience coming this season (irrespective of 30 games as the Sacramento Kings head coach last season). While it’s a leap to say the Nuggets are going to make a coaching transition in the next couple of years, it is not a leap to say it’s possible. Not all coaches in the NBA have what it takes to be a head coach. For that reason hiring coaches with no head coaching experience can be risky and cause high turnover.
While these are just three similarities, there are undoubtedly differences. But, if these similarities are any indication that the 2015 Nuggets are going to become the 2003 Nuggets, fans seeking a championship should be worried. Carmelo undoubtedly improved the Nuggets status in the NBA; the Nuggets made 10 straight playoff appearances from 2004-2013. However, this resulted in all 1st round eliminations, except one appearance in the Western Conference Finals. The reason for all the early departures: he never had another all-star. Why? The nuggets didn’t have another lottery pick until Carmelo left, and Denver wasn’t a big enough market to draw high profile players (currently, the Nuggets player with the biggest contract is Kenneth Faired, and he was acquired in the draft). If the present Nuggets go another 10 years of being slightly above average starting this year, it’s unlikely to get another star for quite some time. As mentioned earlier, the Nuggets won’t have a lotto pick in 2016 if the Knicks and Nuggets stay around .500. But if the Nuggets make the playoffs for the next 10 years, like the 2003 team did, the nuggets will probably be stuck with mid 1st rounders for the foreseeable future. Not a place a team wants to be when it can’t get superstars from free agency or the trading block.
Three, the Nuggets Have A lot of Money on the Floor
The Nuggets aren’t a team known for breaking the salary cap. This season, the Nuggets are operating just $200,000 dollars below the cap. Next year, the Nuggets have close to $9 million in cap space. In 2017, the Nuggets cap space increases, but is still close to $9 million. For a team that already struggles to get big names by trade or free agency, having little cap space is problematic. Over the course of 2 years, $18 million will get, at best, a role player in the NBA or a young player with potential (but not too much potential). The Nuggets cap space doesn’t free up until 2018, assuming, the Nuggets don’t use that space now to sign players to multi-year deals. But, if the Nuggets roll into another playoff appearance streak like the one with Carmelo Anthony, that cap space is going to disappear into the pockets of role players.
While the cap space is a problem, it’s compounded because the Nuggets wealth is evenly distributed among Kenneth Faired, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler ($11 Million, $14 Million, and $10.5 Million in 2015-2016, respectively). While none of these players are superstars, each adds a unique dynamic to the Nuggets, whether it be rebounding, shooting, or athleticism. Gallinari has a deal with the Nuggets for the next 2 seasons, while Chandler and Faired have deals for the next 3. Essentially, this cap space problem, for a cap space sensitive Denver Nuggets, is not going away soon.
It’s Not all Bleak
These are the worries of a future focused fan. Even though the Nuggets probably won’t get a superstar in the draft, free agency, or the trading market, the Nuggets are doing much better than expected this year. Given the expectations, a 6-6 start is something to celebrate with a drink. Hell, the Nuggets seem to be in a position to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013. But, if the Nuggets really want to get serious about winning a championship, having one more lottery year may not be a bad thing.
