Introduction

This is a brief analysis of the two teams’ statistics as background to the upcoming game. Of course, this early in the season, the numbers are not as meaningful as later, but even with only a few games the data have been providing hints concerning the key areas of conflict viewed from a team level. So far, these have been remarkable in identifying key aspects of the game and aspects later identified by post-game journalistic analyses.

This comparative analysis is being done after both teams have played ten games and does not include Denver’s game the night before. For Denver, the game is the second game of a back to back. The usual pregame writeups tend to emphasize individual players and matchups, so I have not tried to duplicate those here although a few observations are made regarding lineups.

Strength of Schedule

Opponents Winning Percentage

• Nuggets .484 (tied for 20th)

• Spurs .443 (tied for 27th)

Thus, both have played weak schedules in particular, San Antonio’s has been quite weak.

Looking only at wins and losses and to whom, the two teams could be judged to be closer than their standings with the Spurs ahead. Relative Percent Indexes* are Nuggets .488 and Spurs .532, but the gap between point differentials (+10.8 to -4.7 per game)) indicates that a substantially larger difference exists.

* Relative Percent Index (RPI) weighs team’s record 25%, opponents’ records 50%, and opponents of opponents’ records 25%.

Comparison and Analysis

The Spurs score at slightly over the rate that the Nuggets have been allowing – 103.6 to `102.4 per 100 possessions. However, the Spurs have been allowing opponents only 93.2 points per 100 possessions while the Nuggets have been scoring 98.4 – a difference of 5.2 points. This is a substantial point difference, and later, we will need to return to scoring within possessions and see how it has been happening.

Source: NBA.com

However first, we need to cover how the teams obtain possessions – particularly extra possessions. We will cover two areas that generate extra possessions – offensive rebounds and turnovers. The table above shows a clash between the Nuggets obtaining 25.1% of available offensive rebounds and the Spurs obtaining 81.2% of defensive rebounds. Only 100% exists. This discrepancy of 6.3% is huge and should result in a substantial battle on the board of the basket into which Denver is trying to score.

The numbers for turnovers in the table below do not show a strong clash although the Nuggets opponents have been having 15.7 turnovers and the Spurs only 14.0.

Source: ESPN

Denver has had a faster pace of possessions per 48 minutes than San Antonio, 100.20 to 97.54. This may lead to a struggle to control the pace. This may particularly occur between the starting lineups as evidenced by the teams’ first quarter paces of 102.64 and 97.30.

Shooting is a key area in which the teams differ. Both take essentially the same number of field goal attempts (FGA) per game, Nuggets 84.9 per game and Spurs 84.6, but the Nuggets make 36.6 and Spurs 40.5. Although Denver takes more 3-point attempts, 24.0 to 18.9, and more free throws, 24.0 to 17.8, the Spurs still lead in true shooting percentage (TS%) with the Nuggets 51.5% to 54.9% for Spurs.

The Nuggets have been shooting at a .429 field goal percentage (FG%), almost the same as the .421 that the Spurs have been allowing their opponents. Likewise, for 3-point shots, the Nuggets are .321 and the Spurs have held opponents to .333 .

Source: ESPN

Denver has 2 more shot attempts blocked per game, but more significantly they block 5.8 per game and the Spurs have had only 3.5 blocked. Denver has drawn 22.5 fouls per game that were committed against them, and the Spurs have been committing only 17.1.

Now, because the results of attempts and shooting percentages are points and points are what count, let us look at these some categories for points scored and allowed per game, so we can better understand the points of conflict between the two teams.

The next table shows per game how the Nuggets have been achieving points and the Spurs defensive numbers for what they allow opponents.

The overall context is the Nuggets have been scoring 98.3 per game and the Spurs have allowed 90.6 points per game, a 7.7 point difference per game (not to be confused with points per 100 possessions).

Every column in the table above shows the Nuggets scoring more points than the Spurs have been allowing. However, no significant clash exists between the Nuggets’ number of points scored with 2-point shots and what the Spurs have allowed. Denver made one more 3-point shot per game than San Antonio has been allowing, and while this does not sound like much, it still points to an area, defense against 3-point shots, that San Antonio will need to emphasize. We covered turnovers already, and they provide the opportunity for points off turnovers – thereby being the main item for a team to address.

Three other major areas exist where the Spurs have been allowing fewer points than the Nuggets have been scoring. One is second chance points. These directly reflect the rebounding conflict at the basket the Spurs are defending that was covered above.

One way the Nuggets try to take advantage of the high altitude is by fastbreaking. Denver’s fastbreak points are a predictable area of conflict, and the numbers show it to the tune of 4.3 points per game.

Points in the paint were maybe not as predictable as an area of conflict, but the numbers show a clear conflict with the Nuggets scoring 6 points more than the Spurs have been allowing. This is the largest difference of the aspects included in our set of comparisons. This could be an indication of the most intense conflict.

Going the other way, Denver’s defense must face San Antonio’s 47.9% FG%. This is 3.6% higher than the 44.3% Denver has been allowing. Per game, the Spurs make 40.5 field goals while the Nuggets have been allowing 37.2. The Spurs assist on 63.5 of their made shots. The Spurs have taken numerous jump shots inefficiently, 451 attempts at a 33.3% FG%. The Spurs efficient shots have been in the restricted area, 235 at 65.5%, and the paint area that is not the restricted area, 139 at 48.9%. Oddly, the resulting 44.4 points in the paint per game that the Spurs score are not much more (0.8 points) than the 43.6 that the Nuggets have been allowing.

Lineups

A rookie point guard, Emmanuel Mudiay, is now playing the second most minutes per game for the Nuggets, 30.4. (Gallinari is first at 33.5.) He has 75.3 touches per game and 66.6 in the front court with an average of 4.9 seconds per touch and 4.6 dribbles. This last may be biased by bringing the ball up the court. Unsurprisingly for a rookie, the team does better when he is off the court, -1.7 NetRtg off court to -5.4 on.

Some context is the contrasting passing of the two teams with the Spurs having 466 touches per game and the Nuggets having the least in the league 387.

The Nuggets most used lineup (97 minutes) is Faried - Gallinari - Harris - Hickson - Mudiay. They have a NetRtg of -3.5, slighltly better than the team’s NetRtg of -4.0. Three Denver lineups with positive NetRtgs (45 total minutes) share Arthur - Barton – Foye.

The Spurs starting lineup has played 136 minutes and has a NetRtg of -10.0 that has worsened over the last three games. Clearly, it has not been the source of the Spurs team +10.5 NetRtg that has risen over the last three games. The lineup has been up and down – more down than up. However, not all down, four games ago the Spurs starting lineup had a NetRtg of +8.6 in 15 minutes.

The Spurs’ second most frequently used lineup (31 minutes) of Aldridges - Diaw - Ginobiliu - Leonard - Mills has a NetRtg of +21.7. The explosiveness of the Spurs bench is shown by the fact that an example of a somewhat typical mostly bench lineup of Diaw - Ginobili - Leonard - Mills - West has a NetRtg of +98.7 albeit in only 7 minutes. For the Spurs, the golden bench trio has been Mills, Ginobili, and Diaw.

Conclusion

The team statistics for the two teams indicate that conflicts exist across the board between what the Nuggets have been scoring and what the Spurs has been allowing, so expect the usual offense-defense guarding battles to be intense. The Spurs excellent defense will be tested. Specific key conflict areas are numerous. With so many areas of conflict, we need to conclude by bringing at least a little order to the situation. Here is an attempt – a list ordered by the differences in points per game between what the Nuggets have been scoring and the Spurs allowing:

1. Points in the paint 6.0

2. Free throws 4.5

3. Fastbreack points 4.3

4. Second-chance points 3.6

5. 3-point shots 3.0

6. Points off turnovers 1.9

Some double counting exists in this list, and these differences say nothing about where in the league rankings the performances of the two teams on these aspects fall. Nevertheless, it gives a sense of where the conflicts will occur and their possible relative intensities.

For Denver’s defense, the main issue is that San Antonio has a 47.9% FG% – 3.6% higher than the 44.3% Denver has been allowing.

Both teams starting lineups have had negative NetRtgs – the Nuggets’ better than the Spurs’, and the Spurs’ bench has been carrying them including moments of explosiveness.

Source of statistics is the NBA unless otherwise noted.