Our group of guys is incredibly talented. We have top players at every position with no legitimate weaknesses (except possibly Center) with everybody healthy. We are also capped out, so the only major upgrades we could do would be via trade. No one really enjoys hearing this, but the ceiling of this team right now is a 5-8 seed given the strength of the Western Conference and the lack of true top 5 talent at any position (i.e. a star).
We have underrated players, sure. Ty Lawson is a top 10 PG, yet the fact that he is still left off of some analysts' lists shows that his standing is still shaky around the league. In my mind, Arron Afflalo is a top 10 SG, but he is rarely placed in that category as players like Monta Ellis and Joe Johnson (guys who have no business being above him) are routinely inhigher standing. When was the last time you saw Gallinari's name on a top 10 SF list? It's been awhile, as people have forgotten how good he is. Kenneth Faried will challenge for a spot in the 10 best PFs, but as of now, he isn't there in the majority of lists (This may change given his USA performaces, so he seems untouchable to me given his possiblities to crack the top 5). JaVale McGee and Timofey Mozgov make an interesting and effective combo at C, but you could make an argument that neither is a top 15 C to me. There is no arguing with the bench, however; those guys form a legit top 3 group.
So where am I going with this? Well, the only way for this team to undergo anymore improvements besides tinkering with the bench is upgrading one of the starters. is it possible to do this? Yes, but only if the adjacent team that we are trading with has a player that is: A) On the block or could be on the block and B) A legitimate upgrade over the guy at his position here. This is very difficult given the guys we have here already, but it can be managed. So, let's go through each position with those two things in mind and try and find some guys that could upgrade the team.
* = worth mentioning Bold = Viable Candidate
Point Guard
Guys better than Ty Lawson: Chris Paul, *Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, *Derrick Rose, John Wall, Steph Curry
Guys on par with Ty Lawson: *Mike Conley, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard
Russell Westbrook is mentioned because of the pressure that Oklahoma City is feeling to win right now. So far, he, Durant and Ibaka have not been enough to get OKC a championship. That may change this year, or next year when Kendrick Perkins' 9 mil a year contract comes off the books, but so far, OKC is panicky given the prospect of Durant leaving in two years. If they want to appease him, they could look to Denver and see a team with another strong PG in Lawson plus capable players on the bench in Mozgov, Chandler, Foye, etc who could strengthen their team. This is all hypothetical but it meets the criteria.
Derrick Rose is locked into Chicago for the forseeable future. All of Chicago (and the NBA) wants to see how he plays in FIBA as well as how he does when returning to the NBA. Hopefully it all goes smoothly, but the only team that possibly NEEDS to be in a championship more than OKC is Chicago. They are built to win now, and if they don't, they need to make changes. Derrick Rose is locked in for 3 more years, as is about $44 million in salary. If they don't get to the NBA Finals, can they make the necessary changes, retain Joakim Noah, and have discernible improments without touching Rose's $18 mil contract? It's possible, but if they want less money dedicated to the PG position given their $23 mil guaranteed at the PF spot for the next 3 years, we have $11.5 mil in Ty Lawson, as well as some needed offensive players at the SG and SF positions in Foye and Chandler. Again, very unlikely, but worth considering if things go south in CHItown.
The last player is Mike Conley. He isn't a better overall player that Lawson, but he is a better defender and costs less money. In Memphis, over $40 mil is committed to Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Tayshuan Prince, yet Gasol and Prince are UFAs after this season. Randolph could also quickly become an albatross if he moves any slower on either side of the court and becomes less effective. Honestly, I have no idea what will happen there this year. They could be really good if Gasol, Randolph and Conley are healthy and effective the entire season (a la Portland), but they could turn into a mediocre team if their depth and offense doesn't improve outside of those guys. Lawson is an elite offensive player, they need offense. Conley is an elite defensive player and we need better perimeter defense. This could be a better match than we realize, and if we could fleece Tony Allen away from them for Randy Foye as well, the perimeter defense would go from a weakness to a strength. Not likely, but worth mentioning given the delicate situation in Memphis.
Conclusion: No situation is viable. Lawson is likely the best option unless we hear from those teams and can take advantage of them.
Shooting Guard
Guys better than Arron Afflalo: Dwayne Wade, Bradley Beal, James Harden, Kobe Bryant, Goran Dragic (Combo)
Guys on par or near to Arron Afflalo: Lance Stephenson, Demar Derozan, *Klay Thompson, Monta Ellis, Dion Waiters
Nothing to see here except the possibility of fallout in Golden State with Klay Thompson. They treated him and David Lee poorly when going after Kevin Love. He is apparently upset with this (even though they kept him) and the fallout could be him wanting out of Golden State or not playing up to standard while there and needing a change of scenery. Am I advocating for this? No. I don't want anything to do with GSW. Be that as it may, if they were to offer Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes for Gary Harris, Randy Foye and JJ Hickson, I would have to consider the options. Not really viable and a very slim chance of anything occurring.
Conclusion: Afflalo is the best option due to the strength (or lack there of) at the SG position.
Small Forward
Guys better than Danilo Gallinari: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Kawhi Leonard
Guys on par or near to Danilo Gallinari: Luol Deng, Chandler Parsons, Andre Iguodala, Nicholas Batum, Rudy Gay
When trying to find Small Forwards for this list, I noticed that Gallinari could jump inot the top 5 SFs if he returns to form and adds some more buckets to his game. LeBron, Durant and Melo will obviously be in the top 5, but Paul George is injured, Kawhi Leohard is still sometimes the 4th option (or worse) on the Spurs playing for Pop and the ultra team first offense. Deng and Iggy regressed last year. Parsons is overrated by many and struggles with defense all the time. Batum is a great glue guy, but if he doesn't improve in any one category he may not be a top 5 guy. Rudy Gay is still a high volume, low efficiency scorer on a terrible team. This position is top heavy for sure, but is very average beyond that, meaning that Gallinari could jump into the top mix. I don't want to trade him at all now.
Conclusion: There are no viable upgrades to Gallinari, and he may be able to become a top 5 SF this season if he gets enough touches.
Power Forward
Guys better than Kenneth Faried: Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis, Tim Duncan, *Serge Ibaka
Guys on par or near to Kenneth Faried: Paul Millsap, Taj Gibson, *Josh Smith, Dirk Nowitzki, David Lee, Zach Randolph, David West
The two guys I have starred are not necessarily options, but they are situations that the Nuggets could take advantage of. Serge Ibaka is a great two way player on a reasonable contract who I think OKC would never touch, yet if they were to pull out all the stops to get Durant a more balanced supporting cast, they might look at Serge as the 3rd largest salary and not the 3rd best player. Obviously unlikely, but we have Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler and others who could provide better depth for an OKC team that is starving for a championship to keep Durant.
Josh Smith is not a guy I would trade Faried for, but he is a guy I would mind forming an awesome rotation involving Faried, Smith, Mozgov and McGee at the 4/5. As I am writing this, I am starting to dislike it given the potential money needed to appease the PF position if Faried is given a large contract. Maybe cross Josh Smith off this list.
Conclusion: Faried is still getting better, and by the end of this year, this list of players better than him may shrink, so trading him is extremely unlikely. If we can snag a versatile player in Serge Ibaka though, I might change my mind.
Center
(Quick Disclaimer: I don't know who the better player is between McGee and Mozgov and will need to see a year out of McGee to make any judgement as he could take the Mozgov leap under Shaw at any moment)
Players better than McGee/Mozgov: Al Horford, *Brook Lopez, Al Jefferson, Joakim Noah, Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, Chris Bosh, Neñe, Marcin Gortat, Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol, Nikola Pekovic, Demarcus Cousins, Tiago Splitter, Derick Favors
Players that are on par or near to McGee/Mozgov: Anderson Varejao, Roy Hibbert, Nikola Vucevic, Nerlens Noel, Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bogut, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik
There are 23 players on this list. Some may be debatable to you the reader; however, Mozgov and McGee have never really stood out to be above average. They may make that leap, but we don't know. Of all these guys, only three really stand out to me as possiblities:
Brook Lopez is an elite offensive C. He has great footwork, post moves, and makes his free throws. His red flag is obviously the injuries. His foot continues to reinjure and brings about bad memories of Yao Ming, another massive Center who couldn't stay on the court. Because of his injury woes, Brooklyn may look to get out from under his contract and do so with minimal returns. They could be taken advantage of, and we should keep all doors open in regard to such a massive talent, especially since since contract would expire at the same time McGee's would.
Poor Greg Monroe. He wasn't able to secure a long term deal with Detroit because of their poor decision to sign Josh Smith. They need to save money for Drummond, and Monroe was the scapegoat, forced to sign a $5.5 mil tender I believe. On a team that has Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks, Caron Butler, Kyle Singler and Luigi Datome fighting for minutes on the wing, they could really use a guy like Wilson Chandler. If we could find a way to trade Mozgov/McGee to a 3rd team and return equal value, we could hit the real jackpot with Monroe, a solid low post player who can pass well and grab rebounds.
Finally, Roy Hibbert. What is there left to say about Roy Hibbert? Big, tall, slow, unathletic, defensive specialist, offensive enigma, poor rebounder for his size. Mentally lost. This is the most important piece in my opinion. When he was with Brian Shaw, he looked engaged, focused, looking to make a big impact. We are quick to forget how important he was to the Pacers in the 2012-13 Playoffs while Brian Shaw was present. For all the talk about him being a poor rebounder, he had ONE game in which he had 6 rebounds, against Miami, yet he scored 22 points and added 2 blocks. He had NINE games in which he posted double digit rebounds and FOUR games in which he had 9 rebounds. He had a total of 37 blocks over 19 playoff games which comes out to just less than 2 per game. He had only 4/19 games in which he scored less than double digits, his low being 6 points, and his high being 29 points. The only major difference I can see between Indy's run in 2012-13 and 2013-14 is Brian Shaw and the turmoil surrounding Stephenson, Turner, Andrew Bynum and other players that made chemistry hard to come by in Indy. This likely shook Hibbert's mental state and caused internal strife. This isn't to say I am making excuses for him, only that a change of scenery and a reunion with Shaw may be beneficial to him. He may be lost forever, but he still has the talent to be a game changing player on both ends of the floor.
Conclusion: Center is the easiest position to attempt to upgrade, given where Mozgov/McGee currently stand and the above average quality of many players at the position. Greg Monroe is solid offensive player but will be a UFA after the season so payment could be a problem. Hibbert could be had for cheap (McGee + Chandler/Foye for Hibbert + Copeland) and the potential of reuniting him with the coach he performed best with is tantalizing. This is he best opportunity for the team to get better.
******
In my important opinion, Center is the way to upgrade the team most. We have two potentially top 20 guys in McGee and Mozgov, but also two guys potentially way below that mark. Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried all have legitimate shots at becoming a top 7, even top 5 player at their respective positions. They should not be touched unless a deal for a superstar or potential superstar becomes available (Westbrook, Rose, Beal, James, Durant, Love, Aldridge, Griffin, you get the point). Greg Monroe and Roy Hibbert are in precarious situations on their respective teams. Both have the talent to be top 10 guys at the C position, which is what we need to legitimately upgrade the team. If given an option to trade for one of the two above players without giving up anymore than a Center and Wilson Chandler, I would have to explore the option very, very closely.