Yeah, it will probably be bust. Here is why. If the Nuggets resign Nene they have a outside chance at a championship in the next 4 years. Not a big chance but a chance. If the Nuggets don't sign Nene they have no chance at a championship, none whatsoever. Here are some numbers to back this up.
I used PER in this because it is the one number that encompasses most of the game. PER isn't perfect but does a good job of player evaluation in a hurry. Also looking at the PER numbers for different players for last post-season I was surprised by how closely the PER numbers matched my subjective opinions of how guys played.
|
Miami |
Playoffs PER |
Season PER |
|
Lebron |
23 |
27 |
|
DWade |
26 |
25 |
|
Bosh |
18 |
19 |
|
Jones |
11 |
11 |
Lebron's drop is probably the reason his team lost. This was fairly obvious just by watching.
|
Dallas |
Playoffs |
Season |
|
Dirk |
25 |
23 |
|
Terry |
20 |
16 |
|
Barea |
17 |
14 |
|
Kidd |
15 |
14 |
|
Chandler |
15 |
18 |
|
Marion |
15 |
17 |
Dirk, Terry and Barea hit the switch in the postseason. Not surprising for veterans on a deep team. They also had to pick up some for Butler.
|
Playoffs |
Playoffs |
Playoffs |
|||
|
Kobe |
20 |
Durant |
24 |
Rose |
22 |
|
Bynum |
20 |
Westbrook |
19 |
Noah |
16 |
|
Gasol |
17 |
Harden |
19 |
Gibson |
16 |
|
Metta |
15 |
Collison |
16 |
Deng |
15 |
|
Brown |
14 |
Ibaka |
15 |
Boozer |
15 |
|
|
|
Maynor |
13 |
Brewer |
13 |
Didn't include regular season on these guys but road to the crown could very well go through them the next couple years. Thunder and Bulls are only going to get better and I would take the Thunder this year in seven against the Mavs.
|
Nuggies |
Playoffs |
Season |
|
Ty |
20 |
18 |
|
Bird |
19 |
19 |
|
Nene |
17 |
20 |
|
KMart |
12 |
14 |
|
Al |
12 |
12 |
|
Gallo |
11 |
15 |
|
Chandler |
4 |
14 |
|
Andre Miller |
19 |
17 |
|
Mozgov |
N/A |
10 |
The good news is that Chandler can't possibly be that bad again, right? Nene, Gallo and KMart pulled a LeBron. Ty carried everyone and Bird was surprisingly good, although I would say his numbers aren't ever going to be that good again.
The Nuggets regular season numbers are good. Andre Miller will obviously be a quality addition in the post-season. Ty will carry his and hopefully the others will improve. If they dramatically improve, especially with some minor contributions from Moz and Faried, there is real hope. As we all know the Nuggets depth is their strength. However this all hinges on Nene. Without Nene we will be steamrolled as no one is ready to provide what he does. Especially not at his efficiency.
Without a superstar everyone on the team has to play close to star level. Ty, Nene, Miller and hopefully Bird can do that. If Gallo and Chander grow to 17's, and Moz to the 15 range we've got a chance. But again, without Nene nothing is going to happen.
If the Nuggets don't resign Nene they should rebuild. And by rebuild I mean tank. Play Koufos, Moz, Faried and Hamilton 30 min a game. Trade Miller, let Big Al lead the nation in hamburger attempts and have Bird go for the record of blocks in a season. I'd rather know we are going to get a high pick than see the team win 40 games.
