I've seen a lot of talk that the Nuggets should move Melo now if he won't sign an extension "so we don't end up like Cleveland." But in reality, the Nuggets are in a very different situation then Cleveland, and for the Nuggets, keeping Melo is very likely to be the best option, even if he ends up leaving. Allow me to explain.

First lets look at the differences in the impact of Melo leaving v. LeBron leaving:

1. What the player means to the team.
Cleveland is coming off three years of enormous success, a finals appearance and back to back best records in the league. They may not have won a championship, but with LeBron they would certainly have remained a championship contender into the foreseeable future. By contrast, the Nuggets have achieved much less success, despite surrounding Melo with better talent, and even if he stays we are not thereby assured to be annual contenders. He's a great piece for building a championship team, but Melo just isn't as good a player, so the Nuggets have less to lose. Not to mention that this is not Melo's hometown and all of us fans have much less invested into him than Cleveland did in LeBron.

2. Roster
LeBron left Cleveland locked into a roster full of overpaid complimentary players and little to no cap space for several years. The Nuggets on the other hand would immediately be way under the salary cap, (probably in the range of 2 max contracts, depending on decisions on Nene and Chauncey and the result of the new CBA) with a ton of roster flexibility, a young Lawson, and a couple veterans on reasonable deals that can either be kept or pretty easily moved along.

3. Location
No one wants to go to Cleveland without LeBron.
Denver may not be one of the premiere destinations in the league, but it does not actively repel prospective players. The idea of playing with Melo does not appear to have impacted any free agents decisions in the past.

Does Melo leaving make the Nuggets take a step back? Yes, but the Nuggets wouldn't be falling from quite as high a perch and can begin rebuilding immediately. Melo just can't hurt us nearly as bad as LeBron hurt Cleveland. And look how quickly Washington has been able to reload after blowing things up just last year.

But more importantly, keeping Melo is simply better than trading him for a couple reasons:

1. We can contend this year

With Melo, we can contend. Without him we can't. It's that simple.

2. Better chance at keeping Melo than Cleveland did at keeping LeBron.

We don't know what the new CBA will be like. I think Melo is making a pretty good guess that, despite some of the "dark days ahead" talk, it probably won't actually cost him the ability to sign a bigger deal than the extension offer on the table right now. All of the past CBA's have grandfathered in the ability to take raises off of your previous salary, and this one probably will too. Although they are likely to cut back the number of guaranteed years from the current 6 year max, it's not going to be less than the 3 years of the extension on the table. It's probably going to be more like 4 or 5, so he'll probably be able to get more guaranteed money by playing out his contract and signing a new one under the new CBA, plus potentially the ability to get a no trade clause.

However, what is pretty likely in the new CBA, particularly given the LeBron debacle and what it did to Cleveland, is that there will be an even greater emphasis on giving teams an advantage in keeping their own free agents. This might just be an even greater financial disparity between the kinds of contracts that can be offered, which Melo has in the past been pretty sensitive too. Remember he's not a free agent this year because he didn't want to leave any money on the table in his last contract negotiation. But it could even be something like a franchise tag that would pretty much ensure Melo stays with the Nuggets. Also, the Nuggets will have greater financial flexibility to participate in free agency next year and improve the team around him than Cleveland had, and are a much more attractive location to free agents, including Melo, than Cleveland.

3. If he leaves, the Nuggets are better off the less talent they get back.

I know this is a little counterintuitive, but if Melo does leave, the Nuggets are better off getting a trade exception and picks through a sign and trade like Cleveland and Toronto did than getting back some mid level talents (Danilo Gallinari? Devin Harris?) in a trade. To win a championship, the Nuggets need at least one superstar. They aren't likely to get a superstar back in a trade for Melo. They are not going to attract those guys through free agency. So they've got to draft them. To draft superstars, they pretty much need to be terrible and get high draft picks. Mid level talent doesn't help them win a championship and keeps them from being terrible.

Am I looking forward to the worst starting backcourt in NBA history part 2: the return of Junior Harrington and Vincent Yarbrough? No. But I'll know now as I knew then that it was the right move towards winning a championship. That year we got Melo. Next time, maybe it will be the guy who finally leads this team to a championship.

Now, if they do get the chance to get a young superstar in a trade (I'm talking like Derrick Rose or John Wall or somebody at that level) and know Melo will leave, then maybe you trade him, but that doesn't seem like a likely possibility.