John Hollinger and Ric Bucher break down a couple of points on the Nuggets ...
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There are seasons when a team rises up for one unexpected electric run, falls short of the ultimate prize and then spends the next few seasons futilely trying to live up to the expectation created. The Nuggets are poised to follow that arc, a step or two behind the New Orleans Hornets. Guard Arron Afflalo is a shrewd -- and cheaper -- replacement for Indy-bound defensive stopper Dahntay Jones, but the Nuggets' depth took a hit when swingman Linas Kleiza went to Europe. Overall, it's hard to trim payroll and convince your team you're searching for the missing piece to a title, but that's the psyche job coach George Karl has before him.
To see which player is taking off, who is crashing to earth and which name you'll need to know for the 2009-10 season, you must be an ESPN Insider.
Trending Up: J.R. Smith
Last season: 16.84 PER
2009-10 projection: 18.15 PER
Smith is likely to earn a promotion to the starting lineup due to Jones' departure. He might have earned one anyway; Smith has become too effective to limit to a 25-minute role off the bench. He has the talent to be a 20-point scorer, but there's still a question as to whether he has the maturity.
Smith's history of slow starts is another item to monitor, especially if you're in a fantasy league (hint: let somebody else draft Smith, then trade for him around Christmas). Spending a month in jail during the offseason likely didn't improve his conditioning for November, so he'll probably experience a tough start this year.
Nonetheless, a starting gig could get him close to that 20 ppg mark, and it's possible he'll lead the league in 3-pointers, as well. Last season, only four players finished ahead of him in total 3s, although he played just 27.7 minutes per game. Every other player in the top 10 played at least 30 a night. --Hollinger
Trending Down: Anthony Carter
Last season: 10.83 PER
2009-10 projection: 9.61 PER
Experience is a plus for the 34-year-old guard, but expect his performance to dip in Denver this season. Carter re-signed with the Nuggets on a one-year deal for the minimum, but his role may diminish substantially due to the addition of Ty Lawson. While his veteran savvy helps keep the Nuggets under control at times, he's also a limited performer who is best suited for duty as a fifth guard. It appears that will be his role this year, seeing sporadic duty when injuries or fouls create openings. --Hollinger
Bucher's Name to Know: Chauncey Billups
The discipline and poise he brought to the Nuggets the first week of the season after swapping places with Allen Iverson were instrumental in the Nuggets reaching the Western Conference finals -- but, in the end, he could not keep the team's full complement of knuckleheads from reverting to form under pressure. Nor could he keep from showing hints of his age (32) as the playoff grind went on. How will all that affect his ability to hold the reins this season? That's the big question.
Billups relies on his 3-point shooting more than ever, which works to an extent with strong penetrators such as Smith and Carmelo Anthony, but it takes a lot of decision-making out of Billups' hands and that's a major loss. It's a tricky task for an aging point guard who is used to taking over with the game on the line. He needs to show he can deliver as well as make demands, but he has to recognize, in this case, that Smith and Melo might just be the better options in the game's waning seconds. A full training camp will only help him find the right balance, but with five players over the age of 30, a backup guard even older than he is (Carter) and now the weight of at least matching last season's 54 wins, the grind will start earlier than ever for Billups. --Bucher
